You just walked into Gamestop to pre-order some games...

You just walked into Gamestop to pre-order some games. When you arrive at the counter you are told you were randomly selected for a chance to win games. Two boxes are revealed to you: Box A and Box B. You clearly see into box A; it contains a $1000 voucher. The contents of Box B however is obscured, but the person behind the counter explains to you that it either contains nothing, or a $10,000 voucher.

You are told you can either pick only box B, or both boxes. Be warned however, that when you walked through the door, a super intelligent computer scanned every particle in your brain, and ran a simulation to see what decision you were going to make. If it predicted you were going to take both boxes, it left box B empty. If it predicted that you were going to take box B only, it put the $10,000 voucher into it.

You are very poor and you need every bit of money to buy new games. Do you take both boxes, or just box B?

Other urls found in this thread:

theguardian.com/science/alexs-adventures-in-numberland/2016/nov/28/newcombs-problem-divides-philosophers-which-side-are-you-on
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

...

If I"m already in the store then the AI has already scanned my brain so I have nothing to lose by picking both

so unrealistic, Gamestop wouldn't do anything for anybody

Daily reminder this guy will walk out with only the $1000 voucher every time.

If I'm preordering games then I must be retarded in this scenario, does that give me an advantage against the computer?

I would grab the hot girl working as the cashier by thrv pussy, she deserves my bbc

It's not like I'm ever going to blow a fucking thousand dollars at gamestop in my entire life, much less 10k.

This is actually an analogy to something meaningful: The fact that the choice you are going to make can seemingly influence certain things that it shouldn't.

For example, an election never has a one vote difference, so whether or not you vote does not matter; but if everyone realises this, then it does matter.

Or, if you decide to travel between parallel universes, then copies of you are more likely to visit your universe, even though the decision did not affect any other universes.

video games

Obviously Box B, so I could have $10,000
Assuming I trust the computer though.
Given that this is pure science fiction and no computer can be that accurate I declare your whole situation to be bullshit.
Plus I don't pre-order games.

>no computer can be that accurate

Certainly no computer today (of what I am aware) can scan and simulate entire rooms in real time, but this doesn't mean that it is metaphysically impossible. The point is to imagine yourself to exist in a universe where we have the computational power to do it, and a universe where you pre-order games.

If you want to attack the structure of the thought experiment, you have to actually demonstrate why it couldn't happen, not simply dismiss it because it's not practically possible today.

Meant to quote:

Pick the $1000 voucher and get a 50% bonus when I trade towards my preorder of Call Of Duty: World War II Pro Edition and get access to the private beta.

I haven't been to a Gamestop in years, except for one instance when I went in just to kill some time.

Box A is fine. 1000 is plenty at Gamestop for me for a long time. 10000 would obviously last longer but better than risking nothing.

1000 dollars

Knowing Gamestop they'll charge you for winning 10,000

You are not allowed to take only Box A. Either both boxes or just B. The thought experiment also assumes that you are trying to maximize the money received.

i take both boxes, either eay box A is guaranteed with the 1k, also, knowng what a piece of shit gamestop is, im 100% sure the computer thing and the 10k are bullshit, fuck those guys

The computer scanned my brain when I walked through the door before I knew I had been randomly chosen for a chance to win games, so wouldn't I get 10000 every time since I can't pick only box A?

If it predicted that you were going to take both boxes, it left B empty. You not knowing about the event doesn't matter because the computer includes your conversation with the gamestop employee in the simulation.

this

fuck off OP

I take both because Gamestop has a garbage selection of games anyway and I could probably walk out with the 10 decent games they have in stock for $1k anyway at their retarded prices.

This hypothetical situation is impossible since I never go into Gamestop.

doesn't make sense to me OP

computer scanned you when you entered, but you didn't learn about the event till after you went up to the clerk, so scanning you would do nothing to predict what you would do.

so picking both is always the right answer, cause the retards didn't advertise the event to people entering the store.

See:
It's not just scanning your mental state, it's using that information to run a simulation into the future.

Why wouldn't I just pick box B and get $10000 every time?

The argument is that you should pick both because the AI has already made the decision to put either put the 10k in or not, so it doesn't matter what you do.

But if you do that, the AI would have predicted that and you only get $1000. It's a heavily debated problem.

There's a very simple answer here, litigate against gamestop for randomly and intentionally exposing me to high levels of radiation with the brain scan, there's a reason ct scans have regulations.

well, then are you suggesting its checking your very nature as a person? whether your a greedy person or not?

if its data base will just throw you into it with all its other customers...and considering most gamers (mankind really, but were going off topic) are miserable pieces of shit, ide say it would always leave box b empty

otherwise if by your text its suggesting by being poor you have a greater sense of value to things, still no reason to not choose both... nothing to lose since you've already lost in life?

something

Box B
You just said that if i wanted box B i would get the 10000

It's scanning every particle of your brain (and the store), and it knows all laws of physics, so it can simply run a simulation into the future and check if you pick both boxes or only box B. It doesn't even need to know the reason.

I'd take the AI.

The fuck is all this shit you just wrote, OP?
It isn't autistically funny, it's just a piece of autistic unfunny shit.

Delet your thread and then kill yourself

Welp you just said to me that if I choose the box B feom the beginning I automatically get the $10,000

You are not very good at this, fagget.

>

>Newcomb's paradox
>autistic unfunny shit
these are the people you share a board with, neo-Sup Forums.

>hur dur ebin pseudo sci-fi technology who can predict your chooses and run a simulation of the future just throwing pretty lights and signals to your head
Stop pretending what OP wrote sounds intelligent because it isn't, he blew it.

The catch is you need to sign up for a power up rewards card and earn enough power points to get either box.

its gotta always leave box b empty, there literally isn't a reason to not take both, since you don't know about the scan stuff, and the technically rigged game.

you know your guaranteed that 1k, and taking b is a bonus whether you win or not.

nigga he literally just changed Newcomb's paradox to be vidya related, fucking kill yourself you brainless dolt.

>walk into GameStop
>do a 360
>walk out

Even if you are right about the paradox doesn't change the fact that what OP wrote is unfunny shit even when he tried so hard to sound funny.

Your goal is to get the most money, which is $11,000. The question is, should you try?

What if I'm just the simulated me in the supercomputer?

What makes you think that? Nowhere in the post did I try to be funny. There is no evidence whatsoever of the intent you are projecting into me.

I don't understand how this is a paradox. Why wouldn't you just take box B?

Because there are very intuitive reasons for taking both that people won't let go off.

See:

No I should not try because anyone who isn't retarded would guess it's a "trap" when choosing both, because is a win-win situation and those aren't the norm in the real world.
Yes I know I still get the $1000 but any non-idiotic person would guess that's something wrong in the both boxes deal.

Oh fuck nvm. I guess this ties in well with time-travel paradoxes.

>OP throws a defensive bitchfit after being called out
surprising

Everything about the process is revealed though. There is no trickery. Your goal is to figure out the best choice, given that it works as described.

Then it's like said

If I can pick both, pick both. If I can only pick one, pick box A. I take no risk and win no matter what. Why risk anything? Next time make it like $10 in box A

> You just walked into Gamestop to pre-order some games.
> You are very poor and you need every bit of money to buy new games.

Fuck no.

I'm actually just here to buy a steam card, my mom won't let me use her debit card online.

>picking Box B

Gambling is for chain smoking geriatrics and the mentally stunted.

How do I know it scanned my brain and such? Without that knowledge, there's no reason to not pick both boxes every time.

Why would gamestop lie?

Money.

But gamestop are gamers like us right? They wouldn't betray us.

If I'm poor I wouldn't be going and pre-ordering overpriced video games as per standard clueless poor person who makes bad financial decisions practice. I'd be playing mobile games in between my two blue collar jobs.

it's time to go back

Why are you bringing some brain scanner into this?
Why does my character now have a backstory
Why couldn't you just say

>100% for $100
>10% for 10,000
>Which do you pick?

Because that would nave been a completely different question.

You take the box with 10k because it's impossible to get 11k. If you pick both then the A.I will have predicted that and you'll only get 1k. If you pick 10k then the A.I will have predicted that and you'll get 10k because it knew you wouldn't pick both. There is no debate. Am I getting baited?

Congrats for being the only two people who actually engaged with the thought experiment.

>If it predicted that you were going to take box B only, it put the $10,000 voucher into it.
knowing this, id take box B and get 10,000. not knowing that, i would take both and get 1,000.

this is a dumb fucking question, i dont think you thought it through

Do I have enough then..

Your thought experiment is dumb, it's not about whether we want more money, it's about whether we trust the company to be honest. The only people that pick only box B are gambling addicts, people that don't really think or aren't taking it seriously.

A better way to make this thought experiment is with russian roulette. You win 10000 if you pull the trigger but the man giving you the gun promises that if you do there won't be a bullet in the chamber.

>walked into gamestop
What kind of vile peasant do you think I am, you fool? Even if I had a console, anything is better than this rancid swindler of a gamesmerchant!

but it explicitly is not said to predict that you would be randomly chosen; it cannot predict what anyone would do accurately, as it does not have all of the needed info behind why.
its the two slit problem in maco.

I think you completely miss the point of the experiment. It has nothing to do with trusting the company. I outlined exactly how the process worked, assuming it worked otherwise is going against information you were given. This is a problem concerning free will and how seemingly rational choices can be wrong.

This isn't even my problem, it's newcombs problem re-memed into vidya context.
theguardian.com/science/alexs-adventures-in-numberland/2016/nov/28/newcombs-problem-divides-philosophers-which-side-are-you-on

Tell the cashier No thanks and walk out of the store.

Both boxes because fuck you

The original question is infinitely better and the point still stands. Take both boxes because it's what I would do anyways. If I take only B I will get nothing because the machine thought I was going to take both. You lose nothing by taking both boxes, the machine made the decision before you were even aware of the boxes.

I flip a coin and head is both, tails is A
I ask the cashier what they would take.
I deffer my answer to the next person
I say "I will take the set that guarentees the highest amount of money, that is a subset of the least amount of money", as this is not calculate able; it is unpredictable

etc.

>If I take only B I will get nothing because the machine thought I was going to take both

How could this ever happen?

if you could take both, why would you ever choose just 1?

the only reason anyone would choose B only is by knowing about the computer and its outcomes, and then no one would choose anything but B

The answer is clear - to maximize your odds you must flip a coin. If the computer knows your thought processes inside and out, change the game to get ahead of the computer. You won't win against the computer any other way. Make the odds 50/50 by being unpredictable and flip a coin between the two options.

If you can't see that possibility happening I suggest you read the article you linked. Your rephrased question significantly alters the premise and makes this outcome extremely unlikely, but it still exists.

before you know about the boxes and rules: thought process is: take the most amount of money always; which is 1000 + 1M or both: on scan this is the prediction.
After rules are introduced, Box B does not suddenly gain money, the prediction has always been made; since the only way to logic out the problem involves predicting the prediction software predicting itself (which is infinitely recurrsive) the only possible solution the machine could come up with is based soley off of your patterns and not your patterns patterning its patterns: it will always predict Both.
Always choose A.

The problem is that your machine is more limited than Newcombs. It can't predict itself. Only you.

Even if the computer is 80% accurate, it still makes no sense to pick both. If you pick both you will 80% of the time end up with $1000, and 20% end up with 11,000. The expected value of taking only B is just better, because you get 10,000 100% of the time.

Saying you lose nothing by taking both boxes because the content of the box is already placed is missing that your choice has been predicted to a high degree. It's not that picking something else changes what's in the box, just that simply people that end up finding your argument good will get less money because the AI will predict you reasoning like it.

...

10,000 80% of the time*

>It's Vidya related because I set my bullshit story in GameStop
Fuck off on out of here, OP.

The machine cant predict you predicting it; it explicity only checks you and not itself, it is non-recurisive.
unlike newcombs machine, this one is at best 33% right because it is either flipping a coin, or using your basal knowledge which would lead it to believe both
10000*.33 < 1000*.33 + 11000*.66
always pick Both, either it gets it right and you get 1K or it gets it wrong and you get 11K and it fails more often than not.

If the AI is as intelligent as stated and never wrong, it will know that I will pick both. I would never pick B unless it was a guarantee of getting more money. The AI would know this, B would be empty so it doesn't matter if I take just B because the predicted choice is that I would take both. The AI predicts my choice based on the fact that I know nothing, and knowing nothing I would pick both boxes every time unless I simply did not care about losing the prize in box A. Box B only become worth a risk when box A is practically worthless which is why I said next time make box A have like $10 in it

But just by picking box B you win 10 grand

Take box A.
It is simple logic, you take what you can get rather than gamble it for more.

I think you misunderstood the question. The choice is between both boxes and B, because A will always have the $1000, it's never at risk.

I went to gamestop and they sold me an open game as new. I wasn't paying attention and saw it when I got home (I bought a lot of games). Pretty mad and they've lost my business.

Amazon would never pull shit shit.

I said take box A, get my shitty money and games and leave.
I don't care about your mental mind fucking games.

I don't think it has to be truly recursive, because it's not checking itself, it's just checking a model of itself that it thinks the person has. If someone's thought process comes down to 99 layers of "but if I think this he will think this but then I think this", then the success rate might be bad, but for someone going into it with clear logical process trying to make the best choice, picking both will fuck over those people.

wouldn't your choice be ultimately nigh meaningless in this scenario
since the computer predicts perfectly you can't realistically out predict it no matter how many times you go a step further because there's only 2 outcomes
and since by the time you pick it the choice has already been made it seems to me like it comes down to 1k +50% chance of 10k or just the 50% for 10k
theres really no reason to go with just B

Exactly but OP is pulling his bullshit free will conundrums here.

Is this an unironic "it either happens or it doesn't therefore 50%" post?

i guess?
the outcome is completely out of your control. if the machine is perfect as stated then you cannot out predict it. go one step beyond, it catches you. go one step back, it catches you. it's perfect.
that leaves us with 2 outcomes we had no influence over, ergo 50/50 with one option giving you a guaranteed 1k

The only choice is picking both and win everytime 1k.
Only a retard would pick box two, despite the minimal chances of getting 10k.

If the machine is perfect, there's no chance involved whatsoever. You either choose B and receive 10000, or both and receive 1000.