Here is your challenge

Here is your challenge

Other urls found in this thread:

youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
repl.it/repls/BraveGummyWaterfall
mathwarehouse.com/monty-hall-simulation-online/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability
shodor.org/interactivate/activities/SimpleMontyHall/
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

every thread deserves a reply, even this one

If you switch doors then you would be switching to the door that has the goat.
Do not switch door.
Unless you are a muslim who likes to fuck goats

You are a fucking retard. Always switch the door

I FUCKING HATE THIS QUESTION.
IT LITERALLY CHANGES NOTHING IF YOU SWITCH.

FUCK YOUR MATH, IT DOESN"T CHANGE ANYTHING.

Watch this video then faggot
youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0

sorry that the video host is a woman but it still proves you are a retard

why. I do not increase my odds.

see

switch doors. your odds increase only if slightly.

Your odds double

lol she has clearly never gone to a day of school in her life. that is NOT how fractions work.

It doesn't matter, it's fifty fifty either way.

Anyway, check 'em.

Kek nice Rick Roll

do they ask every other game show participant as well when it was their time?
if yes:
doesn't matter if I switch or not, odds are 50/50 in both cases
if no:
do statistics of past episodes indicate that they more often (a) or exclusively (b) make this offer when the door with the car got chosen?
if (a): switch, odds for hitting the car are greater now.
if (b): switch and sell it, invest money on my portfolio
if statistics show no particular trend: doesn't matter if I switch or not, odds are 50/50 in both cases

retards roleplaying as retards

fuck, a and b are meant to say to not switch.

switch doors for 2/3 chance of getting car

/thread

I actually gave this a chance and watched the whole thing. My mistake.
Every time you exclude the original door of choice, you're not accurately representing the probability of the game as a whole, merely the choice of the only other option.

that's the point of switching you fucking mong. EXCLUDING the original door

Then this dumbshit rationale applies only to the fucking switching and not the actual game. So if you're trying to prove 2/3>1/3, yeah, it's cool, if you're trying to IMPROVE your odds of winning a car, it does fucking nothing.

there is no original door, you mong.

there are 2 zonks.
lets call them a and b, so you get it.

if you choose the car, the host reveals either zonk a or zonk b.
if you choose zonk a, the host will show you zonk b
if you choose zonk b, the host will show you zonk a
regardless what you choose, you have not limited the host's ability to show you a zonk.

therefore your original choice DOES NOT MATTER.
the game will always progress to a state where one zonk is revealed, and two doors are to be selected from.
therefore, the step of the game that you can take your only meaningful action is when oinly 2 doors are available, reducing your oods ALWAYS to 50/50.
Everything before that is just psychological warfare, aimed to trigger the gamblers fallacy (google it) in your mind, while entertaining the audience.

I pick the door with the goat. Goats are adorable and taste good.

It doesn't change anything if you switch. Deciding not to switch is still a choice resulting in a 50% chance of success just like if you changed which door you picked. The option to switch at the last minute is some stupid mind game.

Another incorrect probability task, considering all three doors while you were just given only two doors to open.

how can you be this fucking clueless

if you choose the car, the host reveals either zonk a or zonk b.
if you choose zonk a, the host will show you zonk b
if you choose zonk b, the host will show you zonk a
regardless what you choose, you have not limited the host's ability to show you a zonk.

Agree.
Now look at the last two scenarios that you have written. In both of those scenarios (2/3 of the scenarios), the host has shown you the only door that contains a zonk that you didn't choose. if he had opened the other door, it would have been a car. i'm going to say this again so you understand 2/3 of the time, if he opened the other door, it would have been a car. pl

switch doors, which makes you have a 75% chance of winning

>"but user it's a 50/50 chance all the time"
you people are retards
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Behind door 1 Behind door 2 Behind door 3 Result if staying at door #1 Result if switching to the door offered
Car Goat Goat Wins car Wins goat
Goat Car Goat Wins goat Wins car
Goat Goat Car Wins goat Wins car

How did they get a car inside the room? Is it a garage? If so wouldn't i be able to tell by tapping the door? What if i hit the other door and the goat starts making noises? Then i know to switch the door, wouldn't the other goat set off the other goats?

I thought it would be clearer, but thats a fail.

_______________________________________

ATTENTION THOSE WHO THINK SWITCHING DOESN'T MATTER

Look at the table and go fuck yourself ok?

user here, also various computational machines (you can LITERALLY program this problem yourself if you aren't retarded) and see that switching doors gives you a higher chance of winning

pick the goat door every time.

This seems really easy to prove with a random simulation.. I am sure someone has done it.. time to google

repl.it/repls/BraveGummyWaterfall

...

see

and yet it doesn't matter because none of the scenarios are under your control.

you only come into control when the game has progressed to a state where you are presented a choice between two valid doors.

you only get one choice.
not a thousand.
therefore "the long run" (fucking google the gamblers fallacy) doesn't matter for you

your host controlls the scenario
you are clueless
once "the long run" ensues by all participants deciding to switch, the host will rig the game against you.

the house always wins.
you loose
your successors loose

this is why people in the comments of that clip recommend a health dose of real-life to this math professor.
theory does not always equal reality.

Let's say you had to pick 1 from 100 doors.
Then they open 98 doors to reveal goats.
Now you have 2 doors, the one you picked out of the 100 and the other closed door.
You had a 1/100 chance when you first picked your door. Does it make sense to switch now?

mathwarehouse.com/monty-hall-simulation-online/

That program is just wrong. Switching should win 67% of the time. I keep getting 50%

examine the code and tell me what's wrong with it then

please just look at
It's a simple fucking table that encapsulates all scenarios.

Yeah switch doors you have slightly higher chance

I don't have to look at the code. The result should be 67%

This, even with those spelling errors.
You can't include a fucking constant in a game of chance and be like "Look at this table I made that proves I'm right."

change doors your chances of getting the right one are now 66%

you're a faggot

chances are just percentages, and percentages change with the context.

no u

yes, now it makes sense, simply because you can statistically assign a lower propability to door 1 (and 100), so always go with it, leaving only 1 or x, with x having a higher probability than 1 (unless x is 100 and visa versa)

no ur mum

No it's not asshole. It's 1/3 the first choice, then your odds go to 2/3rds the second time. You guys are so fucking stupid this thread just proves you're all underage and have never taken a discrete probability course.

Except for when the table consists of every single possible game.

>This, even with those spelling errors.
german here, and it's 4:48 am, so fuck it.

I understand that, but the context in this scenario, to me, would imply 50/50 because you're excluding what you now know is a goat, vs. the first time, when everyone else wanted to exclude the first door.

It didn't though, it implies that the person in question chose door 1 every time.

repl.it/repls/BraveGummyWaterfall

Then choose door 1 every time you asshole.

How the fuck does this prove if I'm autistic or not?!

This is the dumbest shit I've ever seen in my life. Who the fucks teach math in the US?? It's not a 1/3 - 2/3 chance, it's always 1/3 - 1/3 - 1/3. The last door does not equal 2/3 in any fuckin case, you morons.

Well this seems pretty conclusive. There is a global conspiracy with programmers and mathematicians and even my computer science professors. God damn it, the earth might even be flat.

THIS IS AS RETARDED AS THE FLAT EARTH THEORY SHIT
SWITCHING WILL NOT INCREASE YOUR CHANCES.
MAKING A NEW CHOICE BETWEEN THE TWO REMAINING DOORS IS WHAT WILL INCREASE YOUR CHANCE, BUT THAT DOESN"T MEAN THAT YOU HAVE TO ALWAYS SWITCH. PICKING DOOR NUMBER ONE AGAIN IS A VALID SECOND CHOICE.
3 ALWAYS SWITCHING" DOESN'T GIVE YOU MORE CHANCES, IF YOU THINK THAT YOU ARE A RETARD AND PROBABLY AN AMERICLAP.
THE WOMAN IN THAT VIDEO IS A RETARD

Holy shit so many retards in this thread and the worst thing is, they can't accept that they are retarded and still argue after getting fucked by facts.

EVERYONE WHO SAID THAT THE CHANCES ARE NOT HIGHER IF YOU SWITCH SHOULD KILL HIMSELF RIGHT FUCKING NOW.

samefag

repl.it/repls/BraveGummyWaterfall

kek
I guess this is what I'm trying to get at. Each door offers a 1/3 chance and when you put any of doors together, you divide 1 by the number of dividends.

>pretending you have to choose from 3 doors.
you choose 1 of 2, not 3.
that state of the game is on rails + you have no idea which scenario you're in, because assignment of doors switches with every try.
so there is no identifyable zonk a or b, there is only a zonk or a car once you actually have a choice.

seen it, it's dumb.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability

This is why kids shoot schools in USA. They teaching you shit and filling your head with it. lmao

For all the retards in this thread who say the probability never changes should really look up the Monty Hall problem. It is literally this problem and explains it perfectly. It's just a probability puzzle.

Yes. Hypothetically speaking, when shown that door number (for example) 2 is shown as a goat and you picked door 1, let's say that for whatever reason you or an outside factor intentionally switched door number 1 and 3 back and forth and no one knew which one was the original. It no longer matters which one you pick.

I too thought that changing doors made no difference. Then for stats class we programmed a test in basic (for most to understand).

Damned surprised me when the results every time were better chances of winning by switching.

Stfu you retard, just cause both of us used caps we're samefagging now? KILL YOURSELF TOO YOU STUPID CUNT

Yes, your chance of winning is always higher after a door is revealed

America 2018; flat earth society, black lives matter and "if you switch your choice you get 2/3 chance of winning". KEK

You always change, because your chances are better doing so. Let's investigate!

You select door 1:
Case 1: door 1=goat, door 2=goat, door 3=car. Host opens door 2, you win by switching.

Case 2: door 1=goat, door 2=car, door 3=goat. Host opens door 2, you win by switching.

Case 3: door 1=car, door 2=goat, door 3=goat. Host opens either door 2 or 3, you lose by switching.

There isn't a case four because it's not which door is opened that matters, it's the arrangement of the things behind the door. You can run this abstraction for any door choice, I'm only doing it for one door. As you can see, you win by switching in two of the three cases. Ergo, switching has better odds.

At the beggining, whatever you choose you have a 33% of winning. And after a wrong door is open you have a 50% chance of winning, no matter what door you choose. Is that so hard to understand?

How the fuck does your chance all of a sudden move to 50% if you change nothing about your choice?

Wrong you faggot.

because you marked a random door to not be altered, while the host marked a door to be removed.
what is left are two doors.

This is why jews got over us all so easily. You guys mixing concepts. Same chance of winning, no matter which door you pick

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
You switch.

Cause the options go from 3 to 2, are you fuckin serious??? You dumb fucks

Except the total probability remains 100%

At the start, each door has a 33.33% chance of being the car. Your door doesn't change, but when the host reveals a goat the probability that the car is behind the other door is now the sum of both doors, so 66.67%

I remember seeing something like this in another thread.
Switch the door, because through some sort of probability magic it's slightly better odds.

Dude, theres a 33% chance that you selected the right door at the beginning. The chance that anything else is the right door is higher, right? And after anything else is getting reduced to one other door, the chances are still 33% that your door is the right one. So the other one is 67%.

Not really. See

Simple game for everyone to play

shodor.org/interactivate/activities/SimpleMontyHall/

Enjoy!

game is rigged obvi

Holy jesus, you imbecile motherfuckers. Once one of the doors is out, you get only 2 choices, why the fuck do you add the 33% of the wrong door to the switching option? Nonsense, you dumbass

you're confusing logic with statistics. Statistics work in the long run , and yeah, the more cases you'll add to your stat study, the more it will converge toward a solution where switching is better, but for just one candidate it is not better to change. It is still 50/50.
Only on a population of several candidates, is it statistically true that you must switch.
But for the individual candidates it doesn't matter.

But that's not how it works omg. Chances are still 100% but oncd you know which door is wrong it remains one right and one wrong. That makes 50/50. 100% still, but the wrong one is not on the game anymore

seestatistical study =/= one simple case

BECAUSE YOU CAN'T JUST IGNORE THE FACT THAT YOU CHOSE A DOOR AT THE BEGINNING WITH 33% WIN CHANCE. IT DOES INFLUENCE THE CHANCES EVEN WHEN THERE ARE ONLY 2 LEFT YOU FUCKER

You morons mixing concepts. Same win rate, no matter if you switch or not.

It's literally an actual trial run. You fucking are literally doing it yourself.

So what happens if you didn't get an option to switch at all and you had to stick with your choice then? 33.33% correct?

CAUSE IT HAS NO WIN CHANCE ANYNORE, YOU ALREADY SAW IT WAS A WRONG DOOR. 2 remins, win/ lose. 50/50 you piece of shit

it is not the sum of both doors, because you made a unknowing decision, and the host made a knowing one, so you can not know whether or not you have protected a zonk.

regardless what door you mark, one false door will be removed, leaving you ALWAYS with one door to be a win, and the other to be a zonk, which you then have to choose from.

you try to derive a winning strategy from hindsight, but the statistical likelyhood does not alter the situation you're presented with.

believing otherwise is the gamblers fallacy. google it, please, so we can end this pointless discussion.

it's the 3rd time now that I had to reword my answer to make it somehow understandable for the thread, and I get tired.
Really fucking tired.