99% accuracy in the last decade

Owen Ross
Owen Ross

99% accuracy in the last decade
/pol/ will insist he gets at least 20% of states wrong

Parker Johnson
Parker Johnson

implying there have been at least 10 elections in the last decade.

John Diaz
John Diaz

What happened to that "super accurate" model that some college used to predict a Sanders victory?

Aiden Wilson
Aiden Wilson

I literally don't know how many states are in the USA
or 4th grade mathematics
You really don't want to keep posting in this thread, familia

Camden Jones
Camden Jones

His record of accuracy regarding Trump has been pretty terrible, specifically. Yet, you would have me believe he suddenly got his shit together.

Joshua Rivera
Joshua Rivera

that's not really a good argument. he's saying there hasn't been at least 10 presidential elections in the last 10 years. there hasn't even been 5. and yet you say 538 has a 99% accuracy percentage.

i definitely would not put any money on any odds from that

Bentley Flores
Bentley Flores

Use their polls + model

People like this will disregard the fact he predicted 99/100 of the states correct in the last 2 elections

Luke Martinez
Luke Martinez

the last two elections aren't even remotely comparable to the one that is happening now, and yet you think they're good sources of reference for how this one will go?

Jacob Brooks
Jacob Brooks

haven't had a single debate you retard

Austin Miller
Austin Miller

Last decade was easy to predict. This one no one fucking knows and he's been way wrong.

Joshua Gonzalez
Joshua Gonzalez

Trying to predict an election before we even know VPs is insane.

Luke Peterson
Luke Peterson

what is R
does regression modeling exist?
You're retarded.
And yes, it does!

Brody Garcia
Brody Garcia

Nigger

Nicholas Evans
Nicholas Evans

Pols are only accurate until the last few weeks

Mason Murphy
Mason Murphy

trump is awful in debates though, how does that help him?

Isaiah Hughes
Isaiah Hughes

I remain firmly in the "Trump has no chance" camp, however Brexit gives me hope. Stranger things have happened.

Dominic Sullivan
Dominic Sullivan

Sup Forums is very in denial about this subject. I'd love for Trump to win just as much as the next guy, buy I don't think it's going to happen unfortunately.
inb4 shill/cuck

Dylan Adams
Dylan Adams

does regression modeling exist?
You're retarded.

It's funny because you need at least 10 trials for a regression model to mean anything

Chase Gomez
Chase Gomez

trump is awful in debates
domineered every single republican debate
approval spiked after every debate
Stop lying Shlomo

Charles Cruz
Charles Cruz

91% accuracy during primaries. Plurality of the probability is enough to say "we got it right" even if it was a 30-40% chance.
A lot of the general election polls are suffering from bias though and are not taking representative samples (they are sampling republicans a lot less than democrats).
Furthermore, betting markets (which have similar odds to FiveThirtyEIght) failed miserably in Brexit, with 3-1 odds for Remain. In reality the odds were more like 1-1.
Real odds if the election were held tomorrow for Trump vs. Clinton? 2-1 in Clinton's favor, accounting for the bias using my napkin math.
Sup Forums has its own bias where they don't realize the demographic obstacles that Trump has, and this may lose him the election (not that Trump is really any different, Trump is actually doing relatively average for a Republican with minorities, despite his rhetoric).

Kevin Cook
Kevin Cook

I have some serious doubt that his prediction is correct, mostly because there should be a significant shame factor in this election that Silver didn't have to take into account when Obongo competed against Romney or McCain. I think Trump will win the white vote with a big margin, I also think he will attract a lot more minority vote and women than most people think.

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