How do we fix the education system?

How do we fix the education system?

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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Possible_world
m.youtube.com/watch?v=7u6kFlWZOWg
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

How do I create a casino game that exploits people thinking that switching is 50/50? There are either a lot of them or a lot of trolls.

you dont
you take full advantage of it by screwing with other dumb people and getting filthy fucking rich
cherish what you have you fucking cunts there arent as many places as yours that are filled with massive dumbasses but still are so fucking loaded

...

Statistics as a way of representing probability mathematically that has nothing to to with reality. There is a probability of 1 for the door with the goat and a probability of 0 for both of the other doors. Nothing anyone can do, save for moving the goat, will change these facts. It is never more likely that the goat is behind any door. The "probability" is a pretend abstraction.

Try it with russian routlette: 1 round, 5 empty chambers. Are the odds you'll shoot yourself 1/6? Of course not: if your chamber has the bullet, you will certainly shoot yourself, otherwise you will certainly not. There is no in between.

Don't do drugs, kids.

this guy is exactly what im talking about
take advantage of these people you dumb fucks

go back to remedial logic / philosophy / stats, brah

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Possible_world

m.youtube.com/watch?v=7u6kFlWZOWg Watch this wtf.

Get rid of all the niggers and sub-human trash

Abolish it

good shit go౦ԁ sHit thats some goodshit rightthere rightthere if i do ƽaү so my self i say so thats what im talking about right there right there (chorus: ʳᶦᵍʰᵗ ᵗʰᵉʳᵉ) mMMMMᎷM HO0OଠOOOOOOଠଠOoooᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒ Good shit

cool ID, bruh

I bet you're agnostic and SUPER deep.

The illusion is that you picked a door.

You didn't. The host picks the door. He has to reveal a goat, or the problem is non-sequitur.

With that said, he always has to pick a goat, or the problem is non-sequitur. In other words, the host simply eliminates one goat out of 2. The problem is then that you pick a door. You have a 50% chance of picking the right door out of the remaining two.

Proof: pic related

you have autism. a probability is not supposed to represent a specific event, it is for averages. In the Russian roulette example, if six hundred people played, an average of one hundred would die, thus the probability of 1/6. sometimes it will be more, sometimes less. yet, it is still 1/6 on average. Try reading a book.

I don't know specifically about the US but we need to raise teachers salaries and set out more strict requirements to teach (such as having a degree education in the subject you wish to teach).

We also need to stop teaching children things in wrong but simple ways that just get corrected later on. Its confusing, redundant and works against them.

History especially falls into this. When you get to university and start reading more primary sources and shit and going more in depth you discover that the vast majority of the population have the complete wrong idea about events.

Physics also needs more focus on mathematics, because a lot of people hit university level and suddenly find out 90% of physics is mathematics.

You are wrong.

Proof: pic related

You are contestant B. You are in a locked soundproof room when contestant A makes his choice.

Contestant A is given a choice of 3 doors. He chooses A. The host reveals a goat behind door C. He then asks contestant A to replace you in the soundproof room. You exit, and go to the game floor where you see three doors, one is open with a goat behind it.

You have to pick between door A and door B. Idiots actually believe that if you choose the same door as contestant A, door A, that you only have 1/3 chance of winning a car lol, and that if you choose the other door, you have a 2/3 chance of picking a car.

People get confused by the host revealing a goat.

A similar situation as follows:

3 men go to a hotel room and want a room. The hotel manager says $30, so the men pay 10 each. After further reflection, the manager realizes that the room is only $25, so he goes back to the men. He offers to return them $1 each and the other $2 goes as a tip. The men agree, but after thinking about it realize they have only paid $27 + 2 for a tip = 29. Where did the other dollar go?

>protip: the rules of the game have changed. The original $30 is irrelevant. They now pay a total of $27. 25 for the room and a 2 tip. The monty hall problem is the same fucking thing. It is two separate games. The goat behind door 3 means NOTHING.

That game ALWAYS has the car behind door A, which is the only way you can get 2/3 for switching. Try it for yourself.

>being this wrong and emphatic about it

well, what can you expect from a fucking leaf

Does contestant B have a 50/50 chance or a 33/66 chance?

There are two separate games, one played by contestant A and one by contestant B. Prove they are the same game and I will agree with you.

With full information, the probability that the prize is behind the chosen door is 1/3.

If contestant B does not have this information, (he doesn't know which door contestant A picked), then the best he can do is select one of the doors uniformly randomly, hence he has 50% chance of getting the prize.

Now if contestant B comes out of the soundproof room, and before he picks you tell him which door contestant A originally picked, then he should definitely choose the other door because with this new information he knows there is 2/3 probability that the prize is behind that other door.

this is literally babby's first probability problem, btw. go back to school :)

you can not do mathematics, so stop trying. The manager receives $30. He gives $3 back; $1 to each man. He now has $27, which is $25 for the room and $2 for the tip.

If your A/B scenario were set up like Lets Make a Deal and person B knew this, then picking the same as A IS only 1/3 chance. You are stubbornly idiotic. Try it out with a mate.

p.s. remove common core and get more male teachers

You are (incorrectly) thinking that contestant A's choice has some bearing on contestant B's. What's the difference if he knows or not? Contestant B enters a different game entirely from contestant A. Contestant A's choice is IRRELEVANT.

Oh it's this thread again

The point of the example is that people get caught up in the original $30, similar to how they get caught up in the original 3 doors. With one door open, the game changes to a new game. Same with the $25 problem. Situation B is totally different from situation A, and it's YOU who are making them related. They are not related.

You do realize the Education system is "broken" by design, right?

The education system is only there to give people basic interaction skills and FOSTER the WILL to want to self-educate by teens.

Just imagine if we started making the education system perfect and everyone came out geniuses at 16-18. Just imagine it. For more than 5 seconds.
The fucking entitlement, depression and suicide rates would be THROUGH THE ROOF.

Everyone being smart would make everything less happy overall because it would mean everyone has an equal standing in society, nothing to progress towards.

In fact, the education system is working perfectly fine for our limited societies and economies of the world.
Maybe come back in 100 years when we finally become a space-driven society.
At least then we WILL have infinite growth and opportunity. (given the confines of the universe, at least. but fuck those future fags)

It is not irrelevant because A's selection of the door produced a causal effect on Monty, who _must_ reveal a door that does not have the prize. That is where the unintuitive element comes in. Monty reveals new information which affects the odds of the game.


Think of it this way. If you just walked into a room with two closed doors and an open door with a goat and someone told you to pick one of the closed doors to win a prize, you have 50/50 shot of getting it (this is contestant B).

But now if before you pick, someone tells you that contestant A actually picked the first door originally, causing Monty to open the known goat-door, then you have new information. You know that of the two doors Monty could've opened, there were two scenarios, either:

case 1: goat behind one and prize behind another
case 2: goat behind both

case 1 is 2/3 probability because the chance that contestant A picked the door with the prize (case 2) is 1/3. So, knowing 2/3 of the time Monty only possible door he can open tells you something. It tells you that there's a 2/3 chance the door Monty DIDN'T pick is the one with the prize. So choose that door (the one contestant B did not originally pick, the door Monty didn't open).

this thread proves that math doesn't work in the real world

the $30 problem is directly related to the $25 problem. it is basic arithmetic. Additionally, contestant B can use the powers of observation to get all of the same information contestant A had. The contestant switching is pointless. Try leaving your basement and learn something.

this thread proves you are mentally retarded. kys

You're assuming Monty wanted to choose a goat!

What if he just randomly picked a door and there was a goat behind it? It is the EXACT SAME QUALITATIVE SCENARIO YET YOU ARE CLAIMING THE STATISTICS FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE. YOU ARE WRONG.

This proves it. You're reading things into the math that are not there.

ha ha I triggered a math nerd

Monty picks a door with a goat behind it. It is a part of the problem. Just read it on wikipedia if it is so confusing to you.

You're assuming Monty wanted to choose a goat!

That's part of the rules of the game. Monty doesn't randomly pick a door, he knows what is behind all doors and always reveals a goat.

If he picked randomly, then the odds would be different.

If your initial pick was a door with a goat behind it (2/3 chance of this happening right??), then switching gives you the car 100% of the time due to Monty's required action of showing a goat. If your initial pick was the car (1/3 chance of that happening right??), then switching gives you a goat 100% of the time.

All he sees are two closed doors and one open one. You are claiming that by picking door A he has a 33% chance of picking a car. He is doing precisely the same qualitative thing as contestant A continuing with door A, yet contestant Bs odds are actually 50%, which means you are reading things into the math that are not there. You are making assumptions about the contestants and about monty that are not so.

The problem doesn't state this anywhere. It simply says that Monty reveals a goat behind a door.

a jew took the dollar

"i can not understand mathematics thus is does not apply to the real world" - 101547620

If you understand math so well then where's the missing dollar?

Dissolve the Department of Education
End the education mandate
Remove barriers to private entities starting a school or university

It's really the only way; education in the hands of government is a recipe for indoctrination and statism, which is exactly what we have in this country. Why would you trust the government to not try to engineer behavior when they have access to every single person in the country, by legal mandate, in their formative years, 8 hours a day, 5 days a week.

if i was a politician or a king I would absolutely make education my purview. the power to influence thinking is immense.

Have you ever seen Let's Make a Deal???

The manager receives $30. He gives $3 back; $1 to each man. He now has $27, which is $25 for the room and $2 for the tip.

Fucking burger doesn't understand the difference between abstract chance and the reality of trial and error. 1/3 chance of something happening means that you haven't got whatever down to a science. Tbh answer the question by staying there is a 100% chance of identifying where the goat is with a thermal detector and then open the door. You're too burger and will open the door that's rigged with explosives then vote for trump, cuz he's statistically better than hitlery.

There is no missing dollar jackass. $30 -$3 = $27. Which is also $25 + $2 tip.

didn't even mention where the missing dollar went

The OP is misleading. It is part of the problem. Just look it up.

If Monty was picking at random, he would sometimes accidentally pick the car.

You simply have to do this experiment in person and switch the door every time. You win 66% of the time. You don't even need math to prove it.

The men paid $27, plus the $2 tip, and yet somehow they paid a total of $30.

Where is the missing dollar?

You're just assuming that monty has to reveal a door with a goat. Maybe hes using reverse psychology, maybe hes using reverse reverse psychology, maybe hes being nice. The fact is MONTYS INTENTIONS ARE IRRELEVANT BECAUSE YOU DO NOT KNOW THEM. YOU ARE READING SOMETHING INTO GAME 2 THAT EXISTS IN GAME 1 BUT DOES NOT IN GAME 2. You have to look at the two situations in a vacuum, because that is what math is: assumption-free. Assumptions change the nature of the game and skew basic statistics in a fundamental way.

Had computer do it above. Just look.

reward success instead of failure
the stupid american system literally gives away free cash to those who are unsuccessful in life, making them dependent. A person with the drive to achieve greatness and the resources to back it up will be far more beneficial to society than someone who doesn't want to work and waits for handouts.

You are still assuming Monty picked the goat not at random.

You do realize the car is always behind door A on that website right?

I love this leaf

we are discussing probability, though. not the hard reality of what is behind any given door.

if you spun the chamber of the revolver in russian roulette, all things being equal, there's about a 1/6th chance the bullet will wind up at the top.

(You)

Ban teachers unions.
Seriously. That's all you have to do.

>mfw reading this thread while studying for my statistics final

Jesus christ Canada... I know it's probably shit posting, but the fact that this is how the majority of soft-science kiddies who need to take prob&stats will think really makes me depressed.

the computer does not know this. also, the computer picks the door at random. Thus, it is irrelevant.

Statistics is assumption based gorilla math. It's not real math.

1/3 i think

>101540336

The only way you would be correct is if the host discarded your original choice and asked you to pick a door from there, but what actually happens is that you pick a door in the beginning, then you are asked if you want to switch. The host does have to pick the goat, or the problem vanishes. There is a 2/3 chance to pick a goat on the beginning, then one of the goats is eliminated, the you are asked to switch; of you switch, then you get a car, if not, then a goat. The shorten: goat + switch means car. In the case of picking a car in the beginning: car + switch means goat. Again, there is a 2/3 chance of picking a goat, and a 1/3 chance of picking a car. That means a 2/3 chance for getting a car if you switch, and 1/3 if you don't

When the Host picks a Goat Door, he is in effect siphoning "goatness" away from the other doors you didn't pick. The odds off those doors having goats decreased slightly simply because he removed one from the equation.

YOUR door, however, had its Goat odds locked in when you picked it the first time since its off limits for the host.

So the odds of your first door being a goat is the same, but the rest of the doors had their odds improved making yours relatively shittier.

No the guys paid $25 plus a two dollar tip (total is 27). $30 paid at first right? Then the manager says it was only $25, so he gives each man back $1, and keeps $2 as a tip. $30 minus $1(times three) is $27. What are you missing, this is not rocket science. You fell for the trap of "they paid $27 plus tip" but that's not what happened. They paid $27 including tip.

Fuck it leaf, I'm moving to Canada to open a casino.

Right but people get confused about that in the same way as they get confused about Monty Hall. The original $30 has NOTHING to do with the final $27. It just confuses people.

In the same vein, the host picking a door with a goat means NOTHING unless you assume he knows what's behind every door, he is not trying to trick you, he ALWAYS picks a goat, etc etc etc. Those assumptions fundamentally change round 2 to being dependent on round 1. But in a vacuum, the hosts choice is irrelevant. Your odds or a replacement contestants odds do not change.

If anything this problem just proves the problem is not about probability, but about psychology.

As someone who studies math, you are incorrect. Wherever you learned this terrible viewpoint, it clearly wasn't rigorous enough. While it's not as pure as its necessary component, probability, statistics is still very much mathematical.

How can they be so dumb.

MONTY HALL GIVES YOU INFORMATION YOU DIDN'T HAVE.

He cannot open the door with the car faggots.

I took university level statistics and got As in all my courses. Statistics is like the gender studies of mathematics

>He cannot open the door with the car faggots.

Why not? You're incorrectly assuming he didn't just open a door at random.

Physics is mostly useless for majority of people who go through school and university. Stats, financial math and probability at least teach people the know how of running a budget and realising that trying their luck at the lottery or Poker table is full of shit.
Physics should only be taught if it's needed.

To be honest I would rather the goat.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=7u6kFlWZOWg

Honestly leaf I don't think you've seen Let's Make a Deal. Either Monty or his producers certainly know what doors have goats and what door has a car. And he has to show a goat - that's just how the show worked. I see that you're dug in, but you will eventually realize that you're wrong. Hopefully.

let teachers do their shit

...

This - you clearly haven't seen Let's Make a Deal. The first door opened was never (and was never meant to be) a car. If that was possible, the show would have sucked ass.

University level statistics is a meaningless descriptor. My university has like 5 different statistics courses tailored to different majors and multiple statistics levels based out of the math department with varying levels of rigor and difficulty.

It's the same kind of fallacious bullshit as "will an airplane on a treadmill take off" "huurr no HERES WHY NOT"

he's just trollin, it's low-hanging fruit with all the pseudo-intellectuals around here.

Listen you fucking morons think of it this way.

Either monty picks a door at random and the odds of the second round are 1/2 (he reveals a goat 2/3 of the time but THIS TIME he revealed a goat, eliminating the possibility that one of the remaining two doesn't have a car)

OR

The original round is a smoke and mirrors attempt at tricking you into thinking you now have an edge.

If Monty always picks a goat then Monty will ALWAYS REMOVE ONE POSSIBILITY meaning the 1st round is totally irrelevant, and you'll always be picking between two doors, regardless of the door you choose first!!!!

He cannot open the door with the car or the door you choose user.

What is so difficult to comprehend.

Whew. Still moving to Canada to start a casino and make a lot of money from this leaf and others.

It doesn't matter! Your choice is NEVER between three doors, it is only ever about the final two, because Monty always removes a goat!

THE FIRST CHOICE IS AN ILLUSION

Reminder that the genius chick who first popularised the solution to this problem was hot as fuckin ballz.

if you'd seen the show, or weren't baiting, you'd know Monty does not pick the door at random. how retarded would it be if 1/3rd of the time he fucks up the entire game by revealing the prize door.

he knows which door has the car, and if the contestant picks a goat door he must pick the other goat door. the odds favor switching doors, because 66% of the time you will pick a goat door in the first round.

See

how do you not get this and every other time it is explained

literally run simulations or try it for yourself. it goes

1/3, 1/3, 1/3
to
1/3, 2/3, 0

canucks BTFO

Fucking leaf.

she spouts stupid ass shit on Twitter though. She's one of those people who thinks that being smart means she automatically has amazing insights into everything.

Your choice is between being a cuck and keeping your pick at 1/3 odds or not being a cuck and switching to the other door with 2/3 odds of getting a car.

You're not getting it. The first round is totally irrelevant, because no matter what door you choose, monty will always remove a goat from the other two!

The only round that matters is the second round.

THIS - if leaf doesn't get it after honestly looking at this picture, then there's no hope. And I'm starting three casinos in Canada.

white women age like milk. i'd hit it circa whenever this was taken

the odds of picking the goat door are higher in the first round, ergo, the odds that the car door is the other door are higher in the second, with the removal of the other goat door.

sometimes the contestant will choose the car door and switch, this is regrettable, but it changes nothing. the odds are always in favor of switching.

The point is that it doesn't matter whether you pick the car or the goat, so the 1/3 chance of picking the car is IRRELEVANT.

The host will ALWAYS REMOVE A GOAT PRIOR TO ROUND TWO. THE ORIGINAL CHOICE HAS NO BEARING ON THE ODDS OF THE SECOND, BECAUSE THE ORIGINAL CHOICE IS NOT A CHOICE AT ALL.

This thread is hilarious, everyone is taking the leafs bait

45%

there's a causal dependency between the final situation and the original choice of door

look at

There isn't. It's in your head. If Monty always removes a goat prior to round 2, then it doesn't matter what you choose in round 1. You could choose to pass on a choice and monty will still remove a goat. Your choice has NO BEARING ON MONTYS CHOICE---> HE WILL ALWAYS REMOVE A GOAT.