Monty Hall Problem

>Monty Hall Problem
Does anyone actually believe this shit or are we living in 1984 already where you can't question obvious false shit because some "scientist" said it was right?

Other urls found in this thread:

math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html
marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/
youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0&feature=youtu.be
math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html
youtu.be/7u6kFlWZOWg
twitter.com/SFWRedditVideos

This is a case of stupid people not realizing that they're stupid.

We all do. Even you believe it. You're just trying to bait people with this thread yet again. Sage

In case anyone doesn't know, this problem is saying if there are two doors and behind one is a goat and one is a car, that the odds of getting one or the other depends on which door you pick and it's not always 50/50 as is obvious.

ITT: OP can't understand intro to probability

Homework threads belong on /sci/ faggit

pizzagate slide thread

Nice b8.

We are all fucking tards here and suck at fractions.

3 items:
- Goat #1
- Goat #2
- Car

3 paths of action:
You pick goat #1 -> Host must pick the last remaining goat -> Car is left over
You pick goat #2 -> Host must pick the last remaining goat -> Car is left over
You pick car -> Host picks a goat -> The last remaining goat is left over

If you switch doors, you get the item that is "left over". If you do not switch, you get what you started with.

2 times out of every 3 (on average) your pick will be goat (see above diagram), and car will be left over.

To get the item that is "left over" you must switch doors.

Since car will be left over 2 out of 3 times, it is best to switch and get car 2 out of 3 times.

You know how back hundreds of years ago you couldnt question priests and shit? Yeah, we havent moved on a lot since then. Science is yesteryears catholicism today

Totally, I'm not buying this bullshit.
Just trying to reason with this false shit can delude you.

"""Kevin"""

>To get the item that is "left over" you must switch doors.

There are always two items left over.
This is retarded.

Faggot just try the god damn problem in your room and stop posting here.

Take 3 sheets of paper write "Win" on one, then "Lose on the other 3.
Then mix them up.

Now run 50 trials where you pick one and stick to it, that will result in you being right about 33% of the time.

Now get someone else to help you, have them mix them up while you close your eyes, then you pick one, they then remove one and you always swap. Do this 50 times.

You will find in scenario 2 you will be right 66% of the time. But dont believe me, just go try it yourself. And stop making these fucking retarded threads.

math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html

nice trolling

The doors could be arbitrarily named Heads, Tails, and Wildcard, whereas the Wildcard will take the name of the door which is eliminated:

If the Heads door is removed, leaving Tails and Wildcard, Wildcard adopts the Heads name resulting in a choice between Heads or Tails.
If the Tails door is removed, leaving Heads and Wildcard, Wildcard adopts the Tails name resulting in a choice between Heads or Tails.
If the Wildcard door is chosen, the remaining doors result in a choice between Heads and Tails.
Regardless of what door the contestant selects, all three situations result in a Heads or Tails event.


Quit being fucking stupid.

No you fucking faggot do it the way I specifically outlined 50 times each for a total of 100 trials.

If not then fuck off to >>/sci/

>Not understanding that your first choice is a 2/3 chance of being on "Lose" and a 1/3 chance of being on "Win", therefore switching will 2/3 times result in Win
The host opening a door doesn't change the fact that in 2/3 cases you are currently on a "lose" door.

you actually chose the car (1/3), they show you a goat, you switch, you lose.
you chose a goat (2/3), they show you a goat, you switch, you win.
¿?¿?¿?¿?¿?

This. Also pic related.

There is a 100% chance that the car door is a car door, and a 0% chance that either of the goat doors is are a car door. One of the two goat doors (each with zero percent chance being a car door) is removed. The contestant must now decide whether to select one of two options — one door which is 100% the car door, or another door which is 0% a car door. Regardless of the choice the contestant makes in any elimination round, or how the choice was made, or how many doors that had 0%-car doors were previously been removed in how many elimination rounds existed previously, the final choice will be between a door which is 100% a car door, and another which is 0% a car door.

The choice will always be between two objects.

Where do you live? I may need to open a casino there.

What if there are goats behind all 3 doors. How do you get the car?!

A choice between two options isn't always 50/50.

If I gave you a choice between Karen and Achmed, who would you guess would be the muslim?

Who would win in a presidential election between Ronald Reagan and Gary Johnson?

Chance has nothing to do with these scenarios.

> American education

This article was of little help

marilynvossavant.com/game-show-problem/

monty hall problem and its explanation is the filter for autism by the way fampai!

How is this relevant? You don't know what is behind either door.
Random chance has everything to do with this scenario, the doors dont have windows in them, idiot.

I'm so fucking angry at you people believing whatever you're told.
This problem makes no fucking sense yet you're parading your "intellect" around to the detriment of common sense.

I hate the Monty Hall problem.

It only makes sense when there are like 100 doors.

When there are just three doors, it really is just a 50/50 shot at that point.

This stupid "hurr it's still a 33.3% chance even with the open door hurt." Seriously fuck off.

> AMERICAN
> EDUCATION
I bet you think the moon isn't real either fucking retard

READ THIS SHIT
NOW
DO
(YOU)
GET
IT

hi Sup Forums
Please stop posting this and related images; it reminds me of how shit Sup Forums has become.

Its a 66% chance if you switch when the door is opened.

its just a matter of asking would you rather choose at random where you are:

A. correct 1/2 of the time
B. correct 1/3 of the time

all this with the game, the host, the goats, cars, muh "humans just dont easily understand statistics!" are lame meme tricks.

terrible explanation

Fuck off with this shit.

I know the reasoning and explanation-it's retarded.

Why do you keep pushing this?

>Monty revealing a goat somehow changes my 33% guess to 50%
Lel

what if you have 100 doors? you choose which one? whatever you choose i open up another 98 doors only leaving the door you chose first and a door number let's say 73. do you switch from your answer to door 73? why? why not?

read

>I know 2+2=4 yeah, but the reason why is fuckin gay and stupid so shut up and stop saying that its 4 because it basically equals 3 anyway.
Drink concrete.

Because when the guy gives you the choice of switching and tells you about what's under the other door, he's giving you _some_ information which biases the possibilities of the result.

If he revealed 98 goats then there probably isn't any fucking car there in the first place, why would all 98 be goats?

shit thread
when you switch you go from goat -> car, or car -> goat.

2/3 chance of getting goat becomes 2/3 chance of getting car,
and 1/3 chance of getting car becomes 1/3 chance of getting goat

>implying this probability game problem is anywhere close to as solid as basic addition

Kill yourself and your 66.6% chance of picking the correct door if you switch because "muh first guess was made when I only has a 1/3 chance of being correct durr"

this is retarded
>you throw a die with 6 numbers on it, of which 2 are the winning ones
>you roll 1
>the host tells you that 5 and 6 are not the winning numbers
>would you like to reroll until you get 1, 2, 3 or 4 OR keep your roll as is?
the answer is that it doesn't fucking matter, the moment some variants are excluded from the set is the moment all other variants increase in probability of being the winning ones

because that's the rules of the game. do you switch from your door to number 73? why? why not?

You can question it, but you'll probably just get btfo because there are proofs that back up that problem and you're just a dumb faggot

Becuase Monty isn't picking the doors at random you fucking dunce. He knows which door has a car and is picking 98 that don't.

same question to you

The problem is: choose 1 of 3 doors. After you choose one, a goat is revealed. At that point, you're asked if you'd like to switch your door from your original choice, to the other one. By switching, you have a ~60% chance of winning the car. Sating with your original answer is obviously a ~40% chance of winning.

People have been testing this theory for longer than you've been alive, and it seems to work.

Stop getting endlessly baited

Foe every other nigger out therd
This The whole premise is that you're playing a sorta rigged game and it's your job to realize that

what a shitty reading collection, not a single book worth reading there

I already said if you have a 100 doors it makes sense dumbfuck.

But this three door to two door thing really is essentially a 50/50. You can change your choice for fuck's sake. Staying on your door is making a choice between two doors.

Just because it makes sense in a situation of 100 doors doesn't mean it has to make sense in a situation of three doors.

Inb4 "hurr tests showed people won more often when people switched doors" kys srsly.

>What is Bayes' theorem

gb2 probability 101

Do all the retards thinking the 66.6% chance win for switching not see that you gained information when monty revealed one of the doors? Its fucking obvious that its nots the same situation as starting with two equal chance doors and therefore not going to have the same 50% chance that situation would.

...

you are very angry for no reason. so you agree it changes things when it's 100 doors? how about 99? how about 98? 90? 80? 10? 5? 4? 3? i would say it doesn't change anything but rather it's easier to intuitively feel that there is a difference when picking one out of 3 versus one out of 100 and then switching your answer when some are eliminated.

why isn't it 1/2?

If I've seen Doublethink but once, it was in this picture.

I'm angry because this entire problem is stupid.

It's applicable by scale. The more doors there were initially, the more it makes sense.

But ultimately, really... it DOES come down to a 50/50 choice. You just get to incorporate all this prior knowledge into your decision.

For a three door situation, it's stupid though. The prior knowledge gained isn't good enough.

draw the tree

No, I think he's saying anything more than two doors matters, but once it gets down to two doors, switching to the other door versus staying with your door is one door on each side, so the same probability.

there are only 2 unknowns left though, it is a 50/50 shot between those two doors, the third unknown ceases to exist the second you open one of the doors

Well said.

Because nothing has actually changed from your initial choice, the revealment of the goat is a ruse to trick you into thinking it's suddenly 1/2.

Exactly.

Statistically it's solved and sure you've got 66% chance of a win when you switch
BUT
There's only three fucking doors. do you wanna be the dumb cunt that switches away from the car and ends up with a goat? Fair chance of that happening.

You only play one instance, you can play the odds and there's still a high chance you lose.

I've done various mock runs of this with a friend and you win twice as many times by switching. Ultimately you win or lose by luck, but that doesn't mean maximising your chances of winning statistically is stupid, quite the opposite.

Try it out yourself if you don't believe me.

i wish i could sit down and explain this in words, it would be way easier than this. basically i was in another thread maybe about 20 minutes ago defending this and really thinking i understand it. and then some anons explained it in different ways and i actually saw why i was wrong. made a stupid imagine showing all possible outcomes and all that. seriously it does make a difference if you switch your answer. it is terribly counterintuitive but put enough effort into figuring this out and it makes sense.

The easiest way to understand is to be the host who offers the choice of switching to a contestant after opening a door. Try it with a friend and you'll see why switching is beneficial.

the simplest way to understand this is to imagine there are many more doors

If there were 100 doors (and still only one prize) you would 99% certainly pick a losing door

now if the host had to open up 98 losing doors leaving you with your original door and the winning door you would be a fool not to switch to the winning door

people only get confused because of the low number of doors

(((some anons))) brainwashed your ass, this problem makes no sense, next will come the "we've always been at war with Eastasia!" scenario.
This is scary and will only get worse in the future. I just want to die already.

I mean from a purely statistical perspective it can be proven to increase your odds, but in reality you'll either end up with a car, or you won't

Are you just really fucking dumb or what?

You initially have a 33% chance of picking a car, and a 66% chance of picking a goat. The host showing you a goat doesn't change this.

Just went through it. Now that I understand it, oh yeah this is stupid.

(((You)))

>you would be a fool not to switch to the winning door

But why are you implying the contestant's chosen door can't be the winning one

i bet you don't like IQ tests either

There's a 1 in 3 chance you've picked the right door at the start

there's a 2 in 3 chance that you didnt pick the right door at the start.

so the safe bet would be to assume the door you picked isnt the correct door.

Monty shows you the wrong answer out of the other two doors, the last door still has a 2/3rds chance of being right just because your first guess was 1/3rds chance of being wrong.

Always switch.


think of it like this, there's 100 doors and 1 car. You pick door number 15. Monty shows you that all other doors except door 37 are goats. What are the chances that you guessed the right door? 15 still is 1/100 of being correct. 37 though is a door the monty specifically didnt open to show a goat, so the safe bet would to be assuming you're wrong at the start and switching to the door that has the highest probability of being right.

Nothing about showing the goat changes the fact that your initial choice had a 1/3 probability. Basically, your inital choice is unlikely to be the correct one, 1/3 of the time it's the correct one but 2/3 of the time the other doors are correct.

Revealing the goat doesn't matter at all except playing mind games, you're still just as unlikely to have made the right choice from the start.

Watch this. The professor gives an example that might be helpful in understanding.

youtube.com/watch?v=4Lb-6rxZxx0&feature=youtu.be

this desu

It's (((them))) all the way down, the only path to truth is through God.

wew lad I hope you don't vote

They're not implying that you literal retard, they're just implying that it's much less likely to be

It can be, but the chance is 1/100 that the contestant chose the winning door. If the contestant switches, his chances are much better at 50/50. Imagine if there were 1000 doors, or 10,000 doors, or a million, or a billion doors. Would you still trust your original 1/1 million choice or would you take the coin flip?

I guess JIDF happens to be every post on this thread now.

thanks ameribro

>his chances are much better at 50/50
His chances aren't 50/50 you fucking moron. There being two choices DOES NOT mean that they are automatically equally likely. How is this so hard for you to grasp?

Not true, the host revealed 98 random doors, now there's one car and one goat, I'd feel much more confident with the door I picked after that.

I got better question
Do you stick to your choices or do you let your conviction waver?

The difference being you have a 1 in 3 chance of being right at the start vs a 1 in 100 chance.
Obviously in the 1 in 100 scenario the switch is the right choice.

33% chance of initially having the car is not small.

Statistically i understand that the odds are in your favour if you switch. but you play one instance only. I'd feel stupid for switching away from the car, so i wouldn't take that chance.

>only the jews can understand probability
This has to be bait

But he'll always remove one goat, making it a 50/50 chance.

Sweet Jesus American Education is retarded.

G-d invented the world we live in and the laws of science and math which govern it. We merely discover them, but that doesn't change their truth.

Read these
Also if you had 100 doors:

There's a 1 in 100 chance you've picked the right door at the start

There's 99 in 100 chance that you didn't pick the right door at the start.

Monty shows you 98 wrong answers, the last door will have 99/100 chance of being right because your first guess was 1/100 chance of being wrong.

Always switch.

How about some empirical evidence:

math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html

Most people are very weak, if I let my conviction waver, I'd probably be one of them.
Then the Jews could brainwash me.

take a game a like deal or no deal.
at the beginning you pick a suitcase.. the chances that has the million bucks is 1:26

that means that there is a 25:26 chance it's till out on the field.

when you get to the end of the game and you have your case sitting in front of you which mathematically represents your worst odds and one other case which represents the best case odds... SWITCH THEM YOU DUMB CUNT.

Can you still lose? yes. you could have been obnoxiously lucky your first pick. but chances are that you weren't.

Door 15 WAS a 1/100 chance but after he removes all the other doors except 37 it becomes 50/50. Out of 100 it makes sense to switch because of the loss rate but in a 1/3 scenario it doesn't.

I mean, if you were to do this same gameshow over and over, so you dont care about losing, the best decision would be to switch everytime.

Switching only gives a 2/3rds chance of winning, you can still lose


youtu.be/7u6kFlWZOWg
this guy explains it better than the old lady does