Alright Sup Forumstards, time to prove your superior intelligence

Alright Sup Forumstards, time to prove your superior intelligence

Other urls found in this thread:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
twitter.com/SFWRedditImages

50%

40%

Any answer besides 50% is foolish.

75%

3

>Alright Sup Forumstards, time to prove your superior intelligence

Probability is a subject that you have to learn about. It's also something that is totally not covered in schools.

180%

2/3
You choose one of three balls. Two of them lead to another gold ball. Easy math.

If you got 1 gold that means you've picked one with a gold in it, to 2 silvers are thrown out.

The container either contains 1 more gold or 1 silver, thus it is 50%.

66.6

This ignores the probability of picking a gold ball in a box with both colored balls. This makes the probability change to 2/3

fucking faggot

its 50% by the way

There are only 2 boxes with gold balls in them.

One of these has only 1 gold ball, the other has no gold ball.

They're asking the chance of a gold ball from the box we just took from.

50%

>leaf education

1/3

If this needs to be explained to you, you are literally retarded.

3 gold 3 silver 50/50 chance of pulling first gold ball odds then change 2 gold 3 silver
2/5 chance of pulling gold ball dos change to 40%. Not including the boxes.
Odds for boxes 1/3 of picking box from the start with two gold balls, the odds of this won't change until the second ball is pulled.

1/2

It's 2/3

40% chance

This is the answer. Not surprised the first one to get it was one with an american education

>get gold ball
>there's a chance your box could be the one with 0 gold balls

Woops, okay, didn't think about the chance of picking the gold ball in the first place.

2/3.

oh look another (((math))) question where you can lead to a different conclusion depending upon how you arbitrarily choose to divide up the problem.
fuck off redditor

0%
This is an old congame that kikes and gypsies play.

50%

Fucking hick

0%

If you picked one gold ball, then there is only a silver ball left. There is only one box with one gold ball.

Unless your a Jew then it's 100% chance you'll pick the box with two gold balls at the start, and get to keep all boxes as a prize.

ameriburger education reporting for duty

66%

The probability that I've reached into the box with 2 gold balls is 2/3.

Test

2/3.
No, it's called Bertrand's box.

are you literally retarded?

2/3 of the starting scenarios are in box 1, it's 2/3

about fiddy

Missed the case where you pick the second gold ball in the first box

50% as the question specifies you already have a gold ball.

Why has the probability changed because of what you have observed? Explain using concepts and not this example.

0.5
All variants: gold, silver. Good vars: gold. 1(gold)/2(all)=0.5=50%.

...

>leaf education

>1 of 2
>He thinks there are only 2 ways you can pull out a gold ball first
Oh dear.

The question states you pick a gold ball. So it removes the 2 silver box from the equation.

It seems very similar to the Monty Hall paradox

By that logic I think it's 75% since I supposedly the odds don't change when you take a ball

>using probability terminology but getting the answer wrong

See

Literally how probability works dude... conditional probability.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand's_box_paradox
>People still falling for this.

50%

If the initial draw is a gold ball, that means it's safe to say that you can disregard the box with the 2 silvers. So the box you've drawn from is either the gold-silver box or the gold-gold box, which means you either draw another gold or a silver.

It's basically a trick question.

The trick is that you could've picked either gold ball in the first box, so there is a third situation.

Pick box 1: get gold
pick box 2: 50% chance of getting gold
2 in 3 scenarios where you get the first gold ball are in box 1

There is no probability of getting the gold one in the first place, the problem says you get it.

verily, this is the quintessential Sup Forums topic to start a thread with.

why do you guys cooperate with the slider of threads?

My superior education has told me that the answer is 42%

It's given that the first ball is gold, so either it was a box with two golden balls or gold and silver box.

If I know things about a system, the likelihood that something will happen is different.

It's the same way card counters get an edge.

it's 50%

there's 3 gold balls and 3 silver balls

your all fucking stupid

> 3 gold balls
> only figure out how to pull 2

ameriburger education indeed

by choosing a box at random, 1 or 2, but there is a 2/3 chance you chose 1.

2/3

So you pull out a gold ball, and know you picked from one of the first 2 boxes, but don't know which one. You know you didn't pick from the third box, so its out of the picture.

Normally, the answer would be 50% but when Monty Hall opens the door, it changes to 2/3. Then when you factor in the heisenberg uncertainty principle, you can't know where each of the balls are, so it becomes an undefined equation.

...

2/3rds. You had a 2 out of 3 chance of choosing the box with two gold balls in the first place, so your odds of picking a second gold box are higher than 50%.

Reminds me of the Donkey Door question.

2/3

It's 2x as likely that it's the box with 2 gold balls as it being the box with 1 gold ball.

Anyone who got it wrong neck yourself for the collective autism of this mongolian ball gurgling forum

Those aren't all the variants.

These are the gold variants:
Gold ball from G/S box. Gold ball 1 from G/G box. Gold ball 2 from G/G box. Thus, the probability that the gold ball you've already taken out came from the G/G box is 2/3. And therefore, that means that there's a 2/3 probability that the next ball will be gold as well.

2/3

It's a trick question.

It's not asking which box you chose. It's asking about the probability of pulling out another gold ball.

It's one third, fight me.

well?

if you need to use software to solve this, you are legally retarded

B

b. people who say otherwise don't understand that motion is only relative.

What if I told you existence is meaningless and every thread is a slider thread.

the answer is 77%
the probability of getting a gold ball is 50% due there being 6 balls, if you divide that by the amount boxes, you get 33%. and that minus 100% equals 77%

simple algebra, cant believe so many of you are saying 50%, fucking idiots.

>what is gravity

burgers, everyone

When you pick a ball and "it's a gold ball" that means you either picked the box with 2 gold balls or the box with 1 gold ball.

With the 2 gold ball box, it does not matter which ball you chose first. Because you choose that box with the exact same frequency as the 1 gold box because there are only 1 of each type of those boxes.

So it's 50% not 2/3 you fucking retards.

If you are picking the boxes at random, every time "it's a gold ball" happens, 1/2 the time the 2nd one will be gold, 1/2 the time the 2nd one will be silver. You cannot refute this.

1

A.

[spoiler]plop[/spoiler]

100%. I put the original gold ball back in the box without losing contact with it, and immediately retrieve it a second time.

nah, reasonable guess I suppose tho

It would arc, sure

gravity is irrelevant. Are you retarded?

checked and correct

66% or 2/3rd probability

I don't think you read the instructions very well. This is why you failed out of business school.

not sure how to explain purely conceptually. making another example.

conditions: you have 2 boxes. box 1 has green, blue, and purple marbles. box 2 has green, blue, and red marbles.

situation 1: you get a blue marble
chance it's box 1: 1/2
chance it's box 2: 1/2
reasoning: both boxes have blue marbles (2 possible choices)

situation 2: you get a green marble
chance it's box 1: 1/2
chance it's box 2: 1/2
reasoning: both boxes have green marbles (2 possible choices)

situation 3: you get a purple marble:
chance it's box 1: 1/1 (100%)
chance it's box 2: 0/1 (0%)
reasoning: only one box has purple marbles. (1 possible choice)

see

Nice digits but you are wrong. It says you "pick a box at random" first. You don't pick a gold ball.

The probability of picking the 2 gold box and the 1 gold box are the same: 50%.

4/3

You have to think about the probability of which box you've taken from.

There are three gold balls. Gold ball A, which is in the GS box. Gold ball B, which is the first ball in the GG box. Gold ball C, which is the second ball in the GG box.

There is a 2/3 chance that the gold ball you've removed is from the GG box. That means that there is a 2/3 chance that the box is the GG box, which means there's a 2/3 chance that the next ball will be gold.

Picking at least one gold ball is a given, so the third box is out of the equation.

You're right and we're dumb.

>he does not realize the odds of it being the box with 2 gold balls are twice as high

neck yourself

People saying 2/3rds are violating the conditions laid out in the instructions, it has to be 1/2. Just because you can go back and say retroactively that you could have picked ball 1 in box 1 or ball 2 in box 1 doesn't change the situation you are in now. You either picked the box with the two gold balls (box 1) or you picked the box with the gold and the silver, linking to wikipedia page on the gambler's fallacy wont change that.

5pi/2?

2/3

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

There was a 2/3 chance that the box you took the gold ball from was the double gold box. Thus, there's a 2/3 chance that the next ball will be gold.

logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary logic is arbitrary

>motion is only relative.

Tell that to a photon.

They aren't twice as high you fucking mouthbreather.

In what universe are you going to pick the 2 gold box twice as often as the 1 gold box?

You have to RANDOMLY pick a box first. There's exactly ONE of each type of box.

ONE has 2 golds, ONE has 1 gold. That's TWO EQUAL POSSIBILITIES.

My god there are some stupid fucks on this board.

No, you chose a box. The fact that the first ball drawn was gold was given. Since there were two boxes where this could be possible, P(2nd gold | 1st) = (.5)(1) + (.5)(0) = 0.50