Iranian Invasion

Will Trump invade Iran? If so when? I really want to invade Iran. I'm an Iranian Canadian who will be graduating university in a year and don't want to miss out.

How do you guys think it'll play out. I'm guessing NATO backed by Gulf Arab finances and Israeli intelligence.

Also as an Iranian Canadian let me dispell these myths:

>Iran is the good guy fighting terrorism
It has been confirmed by the NATO commander Iran funds, trains and arms the Taliban with their Quds forrce. They have the blood of many Americans, Canadian and British blood on their hands.
>Iran sure beats Saudi Arabia though.
Iran is the LARGEST state sponsor of terror. They have propped up terrorist groups which have killed westerners throughout the world.
>Hey they got decent human rights at least.
Wrong Iranian are forced to wear a headscarf. Minorities also get discriminated.

Us Iranians are smart people who shouldn't be ruled by religious zealots. I can't wait for the day Iran gets invaded.

Same. Am iranian American Canadian here can confirm

>Iran nukes Israel out of Libya
>Sampson option
>USA nukes Iran

USA/UK/Israel/KSA are supporting the Islamic Marxist terrorists MEK/NCRI (parent groups) to take power in event of the regime collapsing. They would be just as bad, if not worse, than the IRI. They were involved in sexual scandals and gassing our own people; they are leftards with a cult-like behavior.

The Shah lost power largely because he had begun pricing oil in a way that served Iran's national interests before the USA. Near the end of his reign he began becoming more independent, but this is not good for the Anglo-American empire's petrodollar system, which is how the value of the US dollar is made. I can give leaked documents showing how the Shah was pushed out of power by the USA/UK, and how they spread propaganda brainwashing the masses to accept Khomeini gaining power.

Let's cover what the USA/UK have done to Iran:
>Overthrew democratically selected leader Mossadegh in 1953, Operation Ajax. Most people know this.

>Push for the Shah to lose power because he became independent. An independent oil-rich country, or OPEC member, is not advantageous to the USA's hegemony.

>Now supporting Islamic Marxist terrorists to take up power in the USA. Trump added an advocate of them into his cabinet.

Listen, all imperial powers are Machiavellian. They do not think in terms of good & evil. Iran isn't innocent either of course. Thinking things in moral terms in foolish, but at least have a sense of honor towards our people and nation. The USA/UK do not give a fuck about your or the Iranian peoples.

Just get a hobby and lay off politics.

I forgot to mention how MEK/NCRI would most likely price oil according to US interests and trade oil in USD, being good for the petrodollar system. The USA does not care about them being Islamic Marxist terrorists; it will use what ever tool is necessary to achieve its objectives.

One cannot hate the Anglo-American empire for acting in its own self-interests, without regard for conventional morality, for this is how all imperial powers have functioned in the past.

However, what I dislike are Iranians like you, who are so foolish that you believe such a thing as "good or bad guys" exists.

There is no good or evil. Only pain.

Even covered head to toe in the most opressed religion in the world women still find ways to be sluts

>that bone structure

Looks like a guy.

>that thing a woman

You're so used to big jaw women and you're losing your masculinity so much that you can't even tell the difference.

Sauce

Putin is not going to let that happen.

What is more likely is Israel bombs one of their own facilities and places the blame on Iran so the USA has a pretext to invade.

It's mainly about global economics and pretexts.

Iran will most likely become a failed state, much like Syria, in the coming decade.

Russia is actually not as close to Iran as people think.

Actually it is. A post Iran US invasion with a US victory would be a pro Western Iran. This means that Russia is not only being encroached by US presence in East Europe but also south of the Caucasus.

It would not be irrational for Russia to draw a nuclear red line. That is if US conquers Iran, Russia can now go nuclear.

>This means that Russia is not only being encroached by US presence in East Europe but also south of the Caucasus.
Neither Russia nor China are willing to enter into a mutual defense pact with their supposed ally.

If Iran is really that important to Russia, as a vital buffer zone to protect Russia from being overrun by terrorists, for starters I would have expected their military ties to be much closer. Significantly, while Russia and Iran entered a new military co-operation agreement in 2015 they still don't have a proper mutual defence pact. If Iran was really that important to Russia, and really a strong ally, I would expect far more in terms of their strategic ties but I'm just not seeing it.

I don't believe the Iran-Russia relationship runs deep enough to make them inseparable. Their relationship is mostly due to their mutual opposition to American hegemony and trade opportunities that Iran only bothered pursuing because it was cut off from the West by sanctions. Historically, Russia and Iran were enemies. There's little depth to the relationship. I can guarantee you that Russia doesn't trust Iran at all, and the reverse is probably also true.

Also, Putin will be broke later this year unless he manages to get the sanctions lifted or the oil price goes way up. Funny that - an American war with Iran would be a good thing for Russia because the oil price would skyrocket.

>A post Iran US invasion with a US victory would be a pro Western Iran.
That is quite naive, especially if you look at my previous posts. Iran will either splinter into separate countries, become a failed state or have an oppressive puppet leader (MEK/NCRI) worse than Khomeini. The first two are more likely imo.

>If Iran is really that important to Russia, as a vital buffer zone to protect Russia from being overrun by terrorists,

You're going offtopic, this has nothing to do with terrorists. Iran is important to Russia because it's a big country south of Caucasus that's not pro-Western.

>If Iran was really that important to Russia, and really a strong ally, I would expect far more in terms of their strategic ties but I'm just not seeing it.

Russia was having a hard time revamping it's military in last 2 decades. Their ties are growing though.

>Their relationship is mostly due to their mutual opposition to American hegemony and trade opportunities that Iran only bothered pursuing because it was cut off from the West by sanctions
And that's enough to oppose US invasion of Iran which is the topic. Again, you're going off rails.
>Funny that - an American war with Iran would be a good thing for Russia because the oil price would skyrocket.
Not as high as you think. Saudi Arabia can increase outputs as they don't want prices that are too high. Anyway higher prices isn't more important than keeping south of Caucasus free of a US puppet regime.

>Also, Putin will be broke later this year unless he manages to get the sanctions lifted or the oil price goes way up.

The EU will be dead soon with possible Marine Le Pen's victory. And Putin needs to convince only one EU country to have sanctions lifted.

>you look at my previous posts.
You have no understanding of Iran.

>. Iran will either splinter into separate countries,
It won't. Iran is far homogemouns than people think. Religiously it's mostly Shia. Sunnis are spread out and not a majority in any significant region. Ethnicities are blended in the cities and their differences aren't great enough to result in different countries.

It will not be a failed state even after US invasion. You'll just have another Shah like figure. MEK wouldn't even be involved.

>Iran is important to Russia because it's a big country south of Caucasus that's not pro-Western.
You are missing the point. Neither Russia nor China are willing to enter into a mutual defense pact with their supposed ally. That is the main point.

I was elaborating on why.

>Their ties are growing though.
Not really.

>And that's enough to oppose US invasion of Iran which is the topic.
Nope. A US invasion of Iran would paradoxically be good for Russian economy.

Also, Iran-Russian history is not really one of close ties.

>Iran is far homogemouns than people think.
Persians only make up ~60% of the population.

>It will not be a failed state even after US invasion.
I wish this were so, but all the evidence points otherwise. Iran is finished. Technically, one could argue it was gradually moving in this direction since the Qajars.

We'll basically become like Assyrians.

You have no point since you don't understand that it's not just down to mutual defense pacts. Russia isn't going to intervene if Iran gets bombed by Israeli planes or US planes that target the nuclear sites. It will however not tolerate a US military conquest of Iran and regime change their. There's a difference.

>Not really.
Yes they are.

>Nope. A US invasion of Iran would paradoxically be good for Russian economy.

It wouldn't be that good, especially since Saudi Arabia would not let prices rise by a lot.

>Also, Iran-Russian history is not really one of close ties.
Meaningless. 21st century geopolitics doesn't focus much on historical enmities.

>Persians only make up ~60% of the population.

The difference between a Persian, a Baloch, and other Iranic groups is not big enough to result in different countries.

>I wish this were so, but all the evidence points otherwise.
You have no evidence. You have tunnel mentality focusing on one thing and reaching false conclusions with looking at different facts. Like thinking ethnicities matter that much in division of countries but you don't even know the difference of a Iranian persian and other groups. In Iran, virtually no Iranian Persian even calls themselves Persian. It's not the same thing with Arabs v Assyrians v Kurdish, where even if all are Iraqis, they continue to proudly mention their ethnicity. With Iranian Persians for example, you'll rarely hear an Iranian outside of Iran say they are Persian.

I think biggest problem with Iranians is the diaspora. Thankfully, they are not that relevant.

>expats

Your analysis is sound, however, dont be fooled, Iran has been in the process of preparing for a defensive asymmetrical war since really the islamic revolution.

Your deeply under estimating many factors here. Iran's doctrine according to the IRGC is one of asymmetric defensive warfare, there plan in the ven of being invaded is one of pure chaos.

They have the capability not only to shut off the straight of hormuz thus a major flow of the worlds oil. But they also have the capability to neutralize us carriers in the Persian gulf, this is a major concern the navy has even voiced concern that in the event of war the aircraft carriers stationed in Bahrain will be sitting ducks.

As for your idea that Russia wont back them or isnt increasing relations with them, that isnt true. Russia nad Iran and the SAA, and the Iraqi PMU forces, Iraqi Army, and Hezbollah have all set up joint commands in Baghdad, and Damascus. They literally are working with one another, more so than ever, and increasingly so. The world is increasingly falling inter spheres of influence, the balance of power is on edge, Russia whether it likes it or not has a de facto ally in Iran far more than they wil lever have with Turkey. In the event of of US expansionism in the region, Russia will not hesitate to get involved, whether it is lethal or not it would be assured.

The language defines the ethnicity: Lurs speak an older dialect, Azeris have a Turkic language, Persians/Mazandaranis have their own, Kurds, etc. We have seen recent separatist tendencies among Kurds and Azeris, most likely spread by US/UK/Mossad themselves.

I doubt most Baloch people consider themselves Iranian. Look at the separatist movement in the SE, it's much like the Azeris.

>It will however not tolerate a US military conquest of Iran and regime change their.
This is why Trump is trying to drive a wedge between Iran and Russia. He's probably already negotiating on how to "rebuild" a destroyed Iran: he will probably break it into separate countries. The Kurds and Baloch people would love that.

I do not think Iran could even handle another Iran-Iraq War.

I am being objective, not idealistic. We are finished.

>SE, it's much like the Azeris.
much like the Kurds*

>They have the capability not only to shut off the straight of hormuz thus a major flow of the worlds oil.
The USA would immediately begin bombing Iranians and destroy the fleet. We cannot beat them.

>Russia will not hesitate to get involved, whether it is lethal or not it would be assured.
Another variable you may not have considered is Israel. While it is unlikely that Russia would want to get into a direct hot war with the US over Iran, Russia would also be reluctant to attack Israeli forces if they spearheaded the war with Iran. Russia supports the existence of Israel and Putin has stated that Iran should not say that Israel will be destroyed or any words that could be interpreted in that way. Israel has been positioning itself for attacks on Iran in self-defence for quite some time. All it needs to do is come up with a convincing case that Iran is a serious and immediate threat to the existence of Israel and they will have the green light for war, with the full support of American and allied forces, of course. Meanwhile, with H.J. Res. 10 the US is on the way to having a green light for pre-emptive strikes on Iran.

For the reasons I gave, I doubt Putin would send Russians to die in large-scale. He will most likely sell weapons to Iran, but given Putin and Trump's recent conversations, I think he will just let the country Balkanize and take a portion for himself, and let America have another portion.

What if Israel blows something up, blames it on Iran, then decides to attack Iran in "self-defence"? Who is going to stand in their way? No-one. Even Russia would find it very difficult. You won't see Russians shooting down Israeli aircraft, either.

This is the problem. This is what we are looking at. The US, UK, Israel, etc. have been looking at this for years. They have so many options that would make Russian intervention on Iran's side difficult.

Bombs will rain Tehran, in all likelihood.

Iran should stop threatening Israel, agree to price oil according to US interests, and trade oil in USD. This Anglo-American hegemony is unbeatable, and we don't need to sacrifice anymore lives.

Iran should focus on the STEM rather than relying on oil revenues.

The Russians are not reliable.

The Iranian military is using asymmetrical defense warfare, so navy air-force really doesnt matter. This is where you have got it 100% wrong, the tactics employed by the IRGC is one of mass mobilization, small defensive pockets, prolonged defensive warfare. They have missiles and defense platforms across the entire coast, all the islands in the gulf, and in the vast mountains in their country.

Not to mention they essentially control in a way everything from Iran itself to the Mediterranean. They have cells in India west Africa, major cells active in Nigeria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sudan. These cells are meant to carry out destabilization ops. They also possess sophisticated joint Russian Chinese designed anti radar and defense system hacking capabilities.

I think your in for a real treat if you think Russia and Iran will be push overs.

Israel has been totally considered, they want us to fight Iran for them like dogs. Many Americans will reject any such conflict, Israel can only defeat Iran if nuclear or chemical weapons are employed, thus making them the bad guys. Besides realistically any war between Iran and Israel will result in the destruction of both of them and probably Saudi Arabia.

That would be good for the US and Russia, but dont think Russia will let Iran fall without At-least the Saudis Turks or Israelis going with them.

Just look at the Houthis they are waging a effective defensive war against the Saudis UAE, sunni tribes and Al-qaeda. They are literally wearing sandles.

Iran's opposition parties even said that in the event of being invaded they would come to the defense of the state. So any ideas you have that the many Iranians Persian or not will welcome the US with open arms is a fallacy.

>Putin and Trump's recent conversations, I think he will just let the country Balkanize and take a portion for himself, and let America have another portion

Russia isnt taking any part of Iran, it cannot afford to lose Iran, and let it become a hostile state like we saw in Ukraine.

Geo politically they will not let Iran fall, they will back them. Iran would take absolutely ludicris amoutns of forces for an invasion which will be 100% opposed at home.

It wont happen, Iran has over 75 million people, 3x more than Iraq, the terrain there is a nightmare for military ops.

Iran vs Israel not using genocide and with no US ally wouldnt end quickly, infact it would last decades with neither side winning.

Israel does not have the capability to march through Syria Iraq and Iran with the US. In all reality, if Trump goes to war with Iran there will be a civil war here at home i back trump but if he does that id become a militant 1005 guaranteed im not sending my son to fight Iran for the Jews period.

Trust me they would have to instate a draft it would be that bad.

Whatever, I gave my thoughts/predictions. Maybe you're right? Who knows? I would like for Iran to secularize and remain independent, but I doubt this will happen in any near future. Hopefully, I am wrong and things truly improve without the loss of many lives.

I think no nation has been ravaged by war as much as Iran/Persia (same thing, been called Iran since Sassanian Pre-Islamic times). Read Sadegh Hedayat's "The Mongol Shadow".

Iran has invented chess, and built cities and wages wars while many civilizations rolled in the mud. Its history is long and proud.

Im not saying the theocracy there is good or bad, but it isnt stupid, they are smart, technological they devolope nanites for gods sake. They are not backward really. But they are on the defensive, the people know this, even the reformers they know the world hates independent states like them. They know they powers that be want to subjugate their money and their oil. Many in the world find that to be something to look up to.

They are no ally as they hate our government and ISrael, but i get where they come from. Israel and America wants to control them, they and Russia know this. Russia knows that if IRan falls they could be next.

The balance of power in the world is fragile, its a good thing, once the balance is shifted irreversibly then only war will follow.

Its smart to let the situation pan out, its smart to let the Saudis Iranians and Jews destroy each other. Its sad but any alternative say the US gets involved, be assured Russia will too and then thats that, the end of the world as we know it.

We dont want that.

Post more hot muslims faggot.

You forget the fact that Israel has equipment superiority when it comes to air and land warfare, and nuclear warfare.