2018 Midterm Election

How fucked are the Democrats in 2018?

lol pretty fucked, half of their seats are up for reelection and without celebs pushing the dems voter turnout is composed of mostly old people

If Trump turns out to not be "literally Hitler" and he can get his tax reforms passed, the DNC is FUUUUUCKED.


Obama barely got the US economy out of recession. He couldn't get the economy going while still following the globalist plan of the "managed decline of the US" (George Soros actual words.)

If Trump follows through on his first 100 days in office pledge, and if resists the urge to invade Poland, the DNC is going to get slaughtered.


The seats in FL, MO, MT, ND, IN, WV & OH will probably go red. There is also a strong chance that a couple of these states will go red: ME, PA, MI, WI, MN.

All of the red states up for election will stay red except possibly NV.

>resists the urge to invade Poland

not happening, we must deal with the polacks

I can tell you MO will go red as long as whoever runs against McCaskill doesn't pull a Tod Akin. Everyone hates McCaskill, she's Hillary-lite and represents a state that went red for McCain and Romney both.

leave japan
no one likes you

West Virginia is going to be blue, but only because the senator is a conservative democrat (he is the democrat senator who voted for trump's cabinet picks, and west virginia is certainly a conservative state, as the other senator from west virginia is a republican who got 70% of the vote), north dakota is only blue by a razor thin margin (back in 2012), so that is an easy republican victoy. indiana and ohio have gone trump-republican, so they may be victories depending on what campaigns the republican canidates go with, and missouri will especially go red (the only reason mccaskill won in 2012 is because a libertarian took 6% of the vote). Montana will go red because the state has tilted closer to republicans since 2012 (the other senator from montana is republican), and 2018 is not a presidential year, so republicans have an advantage.

60 seat Republican Senate is very doable. It's funny when I overhear libshits talk about taking back Congress in 2018. They have no idea it's impossible. Half their Senate seats are up and virtually no repubs in areas that matter are and they have a 60 seat deficit in the House to overcome in a nonpresidential election where their turnout is lower.

Democrats are fucked.

Wyoming will turn blue
#BlueIn4Years

Just you wait durmpfkins.

Most Montanans like Tester though, he's a moderate democrat, pro gun, A rating with the NRA, all that, it'd have to be a really good Republican candidate to actually unseat him, especially because a lot of Montanans are upset at Steve Daines for confirming Betsy DeVos, being a rural state where the public schools are pretty good and there's a lot of wide open space areas where there just won't be any charter schools built (who's going to build a charter school in Power, MT, population 179?), it was seen as a betrayal of rural residents.

>nv going red

your crazy t. nv

>75%

Jesus. Can an American clarify? Is Wyoming the most based state?

The Senate might be a tough hill for the Dems to climb, but the 2018 governors' races could leave the Republicans feeling very vulnerable down-ballot.

That's a few ifs. Yes, if Trump doesn't fuck up, he's got this. But if Trump repeals Obamacare without replacing it with something decent, or if the economy enters another recession, or if any of a dozen other things happen, the Republicans won't be able to make as many gains in the Senate as they'd like. A 60-seat supermajority will be well out of reach, and they might even lose a Senate seat (but I still think a Dem Senate majority is virtually impossible at this stage).

But even more concerning is the House. Yes, the House is gerrymandered to shit, but if Trump fucks up royally and drags the downballot Republicans down with him, it might be enough to put even the House in play. Especially if the Democrats pull their heads out of their asses and figure out a way to bring back the Blue Dogs. (yes, I know that's a stretch, but still - we must consider all potential scenarios).

The Republicans have the advantage. But it's not a done deal. This kind of complacency is what loses elections.

K-k-kek?

>Is Wyoming the most based state?
yes

It's just ranches and unforgiving terrain, so no libshit wants anything to do with living there.

60 seat supermajority possible. They won' even get to do their dumb stall tactics.

Pretty bad. Democrats don't do well in midterms to begin with. They are wasting massive amounts of political capital. And of those senators, MO, FL, MI, WA, PA, OH, WV, MT and ND are all Trump won states. Most are solid R states.

Democrats will likely lose as many as 8 seats, possible 10. No filibuster means we can seat even further right SCOTUS judges, we can do so much shit.

Dems are is for a fucking massacre. Plus, first year Gen Z can vote.

Wyoming is the least populous state in the Union, and one of the least densely populated. It has a population of half a million people spread out across an area the size of Victoria. It's ridiculously rural, and even the state's capital's metro area has a population less than 100,000 (really, calling it a metro is kind of generous - it's an overgrown country town).

Given the nature of the state's electorate, even the Democrats there hew to conservative positions on some issues. Especially on guns.

Fun fact, though - Wyoming was the first state in the Union to legalise the vote for women, and in their latest mayoral election in the capital, both the Republican and Democratic candidates were women.

Now, this isn't to say that it would be impossible for a Democrat to win Wyoming. It's just that for that to happen, something utterly monumental would have to happen, -and- the Democratic Party's platform would have to be set to accommodate such rural interests in order to allow them to capitalise on it.

Or, alternatively, like 200,000 Californians would have to move there.

>and if resists the urge to invade Iran
BIG IF

>going red
WI
MI
PA
MT
FL

>Going blue
NV
AZ

>Zyklon Ben state isn't red

What did they mean by this ?

Also, to clarify - the last time the Democrats won Wyoming was over 50 years ago, in 1964.

As it is sometimes said, "nothing is impossible, but it is -not- very likely."

The carolinas and georgia will be the next safe seats being not so safe.
Wicosncin will be perma red

I would not be so confident about Michigan. Trump won the state, yes, but it was by a narrow margin. Furthermore, a lot of people in Michigan really hate Betsy DeVos. Furthermore, they're having a gubernatorial election as well, and the Republican governorship is taking some of the blame for the Flint water problems. That might get certain urban demographics of people out to the polls.

>that might get certain urban demographics of people out to the polls.
black people should love betty. They wont be stuck in shitty segerated Detroit Public Schools anymore

>do so much
>shit

That's the problem though, mostly what they'll be doing is stripping freedoms and giving tax breaks to rich people.

The ONLY freedom that Republicans care about is guns.

Fuck off you retarded CTR shill.

>niggers vote in midterms
It was hard enough for the Dems to get them to vote for a fake nigger president

2006.

>hard
>record turnout

I agree with your point, but your example is retarded and atrocious.

Neocons NEVER give new freedoms to people, they think we should be limited only to the 8 explicitly given in the bill of rights even though the founders added the 9th amendment to say we were intended to have more freedoms they couldn't think of off the top of their heads.

jesus those digits

stay safe polanbros :(

You are retarded as fuck, fuck off shill.

One more thing.

Even if the Republicans make some gains in the Senate in 2018, a Democratic sweep of the GOP-held governorships that year would be a nightmare scenario for the Republicans.

Most governors' terms go for 4 or 5 years, so if they win 2018, they'll be in power in 2021, when the redistricting from the 2020 census gets underway. With so many states under their control (in whole or in part), they could undo many of the gerrymanders from the Republican-dominated redistricting of 2010, or gerrymander them in reverse to favour the Democrats.

Not very. It's over for Blumpf.

2018 is a long way away and a lot can happen, but the Democrats have stacked the deck against themselves. There are two things at play here.

First, a major part of the democratic electorate simply doesn't show up for midterms. If there isn't a president attached to the ballot, they don't care. Republicans are guilty of this as well, but to a lesser extend. The 2012 seats were won on a wave of enthusiasm for Obama and his campaign. There is nothing to replace that in 2018.

Second, and more importantly, the democrats fundamentally misunderstand, or fail to understand, how public opinion affects the public's perception. They think if they keep firing shit at Trump, protesting and calling for impeachment before he's even done anything, the public will grow to dislike him. In fact, the opposite is true. This can all be boiled down to the well-known business concept of "underpromise, overdeliver".

Consider Barack Obama. He got absolutely schlonged in the midterms in 2014. This wasn't because he was such a disastrous president, despite what Sup Forums will tell you, but because the media put him on a pedestal and framed him as the Messiah. Consequentially, this is what the people expected and Obama, being just a man, couldn't deliver.

(1/2)

The opposite happened to Reagan. He was framed as an inexperienced dangerous blabbermouth when he first ran against Carter and was in fact way behind up until the debates. He only needed to not look like an idiot for the public to think "Hey, this Reagan guy doesn't seem so bad". He had an alright first term as President (definitely not the Conservative Jesus he's made out to be), but in contrast to the public's perception he looked like Washington himself. It was enough to ensure one of the greatest electoral landslides in US history in '84.

Now, guess which of the above applies to Trump. He's made out to be worse than the devil himself. is right when he says that Trump only needs to not be "Literally Hitler" and he's all set. If he has, god forbid, a moderately good first term, he's all but guaranteed re-election.

There are many things at play in a midterm senate election and we don't nearly know enough to say what will happen over one and a half years from now, but we know the Democrats have made it extremely hard for Trump to fuck up. The most likely outcome is a large victory for the Republicans since Democrats will never be able to replicate the enthusiasm of the OBAMA 2012 campaign in all 23 states they have to defend.

(2/2)

Is that the best you can do?

Cause you certainly aren't proving me wrong.