2018 SENATE ELECTION MAP THREAD

270towin.com/2018-senate-election/

Haven't seen one of these. Post your predictions.

Other urls found in this thread:

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6008.html
twitter.com/SFWRedditGifs

I AM THE SENATE

...

I can see this happening with WV not mattering since Manchin is a Republican in everything but name.

>I can see this happening with WV not mattering since Manchin is a Republican in everything but name

You know more than I do about US politics, Hans.

>Michigan
>red

I would be absolutely shocked, sadly.

Virginia will not vote for both its incumbents.

Yeah...

Virginia

>I AM THE SENATE

I AM JERUSALEM

DRUMPFFFFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! COME OUT AND FACE ME YOU COWARD!

DRUMPFFFFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! FIGHT ME LIKE A MAN, YOU BITCH!

DRUMPF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kid Rock is supposed to run.

>Kid Rock is supposed to run.

in Michigan ?

That'll be fun to watch.

This is what will happen. Screencap it because it's going to be right guaranteed. Machin will not lose in WV because he's the last blue collar working man democrat alive and he's popular. Also he's been voting more with the Republicans lately so don't expect him to lose.

Gonna post mine in a few

ted nugent is going to run as well

i think that is kind of optimistic, tester is pretty popular in MT and I dont see the maine, minnesota, and pennsylvania seats swapping as their incumbents are quite popular

may be a 59-41 split with manchin being the filibuster spoiler

This is my map for 2018

Key points:

>I think Heidi Heitkamp loses her seat in North Dakota. The state is too changed with the oil boom to elect her again.
>Joe Manchin keeps his seat in WV.
>Jon Tester holds onto his seat in Montana. The New York Times described him as "truly your grandfather's Democrat—a pro-gun, anti-big-business prairie pragmatist whose life is defined by the treeless patch of hard Montana dirt that has been in the family since 1916." So he stays, but a little narrower than in 2012.
>NV and AZ stay red. It's an off year so Jose will stay home

Note: By this point the democrats already have no chance of taking the senate.

>Wisconsin might flip to red in 2018 only because their senator is a gay woman and very "progressive". WI is changing and if enough FUCKING WHITE MALES show up to vote, they could unseat her.
>florida stays blue. their guy is pretty centrist so he probably stays. he might get unseated tho.
>tim kaine keeps his seat since they cucked up VA.

also IMHO rip claire mccaskil how did she even win a seat in missouri?

lol living in fucking la la land! Republican will lose congress because drumpf sucks

did you miss the 2016 election?

I live in Ohio. Absolutely no way it will flip blue.

ohio's senate seat is already democrat. Sherrod Brown is popular in Ohio.

Please level Seattle, friends

Trust me on this though, Democrats do not turn out in mid term elections. States with smaller populations such as Montana and Maine (quite conservative outside any city) are huge threats to Democrats in this cycle. Definetly think Montana and Maine will go red, Pennsylvania and Minnesota will be close

Here's your (You).

Man, kikes are even greedy for (You)'s nowadays

I haven't heard a peep about who will be running against tammy baldwin in WI.
Leftist cunt needs to go down and I'm all in with whoever the GOP candidate will be.
The same force that elected Trump, elected Scott Walker as governor, defended Scott Walker through the recall with more votes than first election, will destroy that harlot.

Might get unseated though if Trump campaigns for the Republican. Partisan votes are pretty big in Senate elections.

This seems pretty likely, between the tendency of opposition to do better in off-years and the Democrats supposedly trying to rebuild at the local and state level after eight years of collapse with Obama. Even Rasmussen says Heitkamp is a toss-up at this early stage. It'll depend on if Democrats are still as pissed in November 2018 as they are right now.

this is probably the best prediction i have seen. moderate democrats like tester and manchin will probably keep their seats, as there were a lot of trump democrats who are largely opposed to the far left, not so much the center left.

trump is center left on economic and religious issues but right wing on immigration and gun rights.

maine actually has an independent senator up for re-election, angus king, who is quite popular there and is seen as a moderating force. lepage could complete well if he ran, but anyone else is probably going to lose that one.

jon tester is quite a moderate democrat, he is even pro-gun. if he actually votes moderately the next two years and supports some of trump's legislation, i could see him keeping his seat.

Missouri has been becoming more Republican in recent years. When she was elected the state was much bluer.

it is really going to depend on who the GOP selects. they made a mistake in choosing akin. i think a trump like republican who focused on the economy and migration would have easily beat her.

GOP needs to run someone who is not a bible basher. focusing on religious issues seems to be popular in the deep south, but not much elsewhere.

I agree

Trump did rediculously well in Missouri. It stands to reason that another Trump Republican would be attractive to Missourians

So what does this mean regarding power? Would Democrats still be out of the house/senate?

lets start this meme up
>PA
>RED
>laughing CREW whores


>IT ACTUALLY GOES RED

its going to stay red.

The Republicans would keep control of the senate and they will ABSOLUTELY keep the house. Because the house is so gerrymandered and the Democrats are so weak at the state level, it will be republican for the foreseeable future. To win the senate in 2018, the Democrats need to win 3 seats. That is almost impossible. The two seats they need most are NV and AZ. They wont win those because minorities dont vote in non-presidential years.

>tfw no one notices your splendid array of dubz.

If republicans win all seats that are toss up or lean blue

...

Why are so many parts grey?

I think it's going to go like this:

-WI has been trending more and more R the past years, and more people (usually young dems) are moving out of the state. It's even projected to lose EC votes by 2020. Senator is a literal commie dyke and can only win if Madison turnout is 3000%
-King in ME will probably not be dethroned, he's popular in rural ME
-Rick Scott will beat Nelson in FL. Trump guy and riding both Trump and governorship momentum. Unpopular in South Florida, but turnout in South Florida is low during midterms.
-Who even doubts the woman from MO is going to lose her seat?
-ND's "fuck white people" senatoris 100% going to lose in a landslide (she's looking for the DNC seat to make up for it)
-IN is Pence territory, secured seat
-Brown is popular in Ohio, but he'll 100% lose because the person running will be a solid Trump guy and Trump is probably even going to personally rally/stump for them. He'll lose solely due to partisanship/Trump love.
-MI and PA are the hardest seats and Trump will probably autistically campaign there for the people he's gonna run. He WILL win one, but the other is all up to how well he stumps/how well liked and recognized the person is.

He's gonna put effort into the rust belt seats at a personal level. And they'll be Trump-style candidates.

What did you expect? Kikes are greedy!

casey is highly approved in PA, his father was a popular governor.

you have to remember trump just barely won PA, it can switch from time to time.

you have to distinguish between moderate dems and far lefties. a big reason trump won because he was in fact the real "moderate" this election. he holds many left and right wing positions in a sense.

No elections for these seats in 2018

I don't know much about politics in PA, but I figured something along those lines

I do, however, think that the seat in MI will be close

FL will be close too, but it's easier for Republicans

I'm really not sure how anyone can make a prediction beyond this.

>AZ, NV will stay red, not enough Hispanics will vote in a midterm
>MO will flip red. The incumbent is already afraid of being primaried
>MT, WV, ME, and FL will all stay blue. ME and FL are seen as moderates bridging partisanship and MT and WV are Republicans in all but name
>WI is a changed state with a gay socialist relic of its past. It will be red this time
>rust belt literally depends entirely on who the Republicans run. All Dems are pretty moderate but these guys worship the god emperor
>ND dem is an oil shill and concedes to state consensus on issues like gun control so she'll probably stay

Every other state is pretty safe

That is some of the funniest shit I have ever seen. You owe me my sides back.

>I live in Ohio. Absolutely no way it will flip blue.
Same and agreed.

I live in missouri, one of the few swing states for the 2018 election
I registered to vote and voted for the god-emperor last november, do I need to register again to vote in 2018 or am I all set to kick this democratic cunt out of office?

MI and PA probably will stay blue because their senators are moderate

Places I think the GOP has a good chance of picking up are MO, IN, WI, ND. That would give them a total of 56 from the 52 they have now.

WV, MT both have blue collar popular Dems, they will likely stay. PA and MI both approve of their incumbents, so they will probably stay too. But GOP will definitely have some pickups, and I feel these blue collar dems will have to support at least some of Trump's policies to stay popular.

Yes, Pocahontas will lose

WV senator will run as Republican or be primaried out.

No Senate elections in 2018.

I'll believe in a supposed Trump Effect when I see it, He carried Missouri yet the Republican incumbent Senator won by slightly less than 3%.

Thanks for the chuckle Finland

To early to make this map. It depends on if trump puts in a good obamacare replacement

You only need to re register if you move to a different county

All Trump has to do is say to Republicans not to vote for Democrats in 2018. (which he WILL do) And thus deep red states won't vote for Democrats, no matter what.

You are completely mistaken if you think the mid-term will be like any other under Trump.

why would trump want to get rid of Manchin. He is ideologically closer to trump than half the republicans

very much this. Obamacare put 30million people off insurance while giving insurance to 30million others. It would be very easy for Republicans to fuck up in such a way that 60million are without insurance

The senator Blunt ran against tried very hard to make himself seem like a Republican and not a democrat.

He ran on a pro gun platform which is a huge issue in Missouri.

That's not the problem. The problem is the deep red states don't view their dems as dems. That's why they're in in the first place.

MT and WV are pretty much Trump senators in the Democratic party

Manchin will probably switch to Republican. Democrats have made it clear that they don't even want moderates as a part of their party, and Manchin is indeed close to Trump in his views.

This is true. The only exception was the 2006 midterms, which nearly all of the gains were from Red states angry over the Iraq war where the Democrats promised to leave, but never did.

I have seen Democrats vote in unison against most of Trump's pics. So they aren't pretty much Trump senators based on their actions.

(WV senator voted ONCE against his party)

perez will win the dnc. Berniecrats will form their own party or go to greens

Casey is fucked in PA. It's an off year which Dems always do worse in and his claims of being pro-life like his father has gone by the wayside.

noone checks voting record in the US

I bet Trump will
Which is why he will urge Republicans to vote against all Democrats (only possible exception is WV senator)

I'd rather have no insurance, and pay cash for everything if it meant shit was affordable.

What's the difference in paying 20k cash for a medical procedure with no insurance, and paying 20k cash in insurance premiums & deductibles while the hospital will charge the insurance company another 80k because they figure they can get away with it?

PA here, our senior senator, Bob Casey (D), isn't going away. I'd be more worried about Pat Toomey (R), but he managed to beat that cunt Katie Mcginty.

>Pennsylvania red
>Wisconsin red

I know you're not an american but come on

unless donald trump descends from the heavens to campaign there in person, and the democratic opponent has 0 rallys and doesn't even bother campaigning in those states, it won't happen

they're a bunch of liberal cucks, the only reason trump won is because they didnt bother to show up to vote

that, and the incumbent party is always at a disadvantage in mid terms

>NY
>Blue

Chuckey Schumer is gonna go.

drumpf will fuck up so terribly this year that republicunts will lose all seats lol

I'm assuming trump keeps a low approval rating by 2018.
I'm not sure about joe donnelly, joe manchin, or jeff flake.

Joe Donnelly really seems like a meh politician that was elected due to the tea party in indiana.

Joe Manchin is a dino in a state that went for trump by large margins on his promise of bringing back jobs especially to the coal industry (not gonna happen).

Arizona has been trending blue and Trump will probably have a very high disapproval rating there due to his crackdown on immigration. The republican business owners don't want to see their employees taken away.

If Trump has committed political suicide, I can see Mo, Az, and ND going blue in the senate.

WI will 100% be red. This state has changed so much recently that I wouldn't be surprised if the entire Democratic party threw in the towel and not just Clinton

>still believing the meme polls

His approval rating is about 53%

You do realize Wisconsin went for a Republican in the presidential election for the first time since Ronald Reagan, right?
And we have Republican Governor (Who isn't that faggot Tommy Thompson), and an already seated Republican Senator?
Not to mention 5 of 9 members of the United States House of Representatives from Wisconsin are Republican?

Wisconsin will do it's part to Make America Great Again.

>His approval rating is about 53%
Every other poll has it lower than 45%, some in the 30's, but I should believe fake ass Rasmussen.

>WI will be red
Wont happen with a Republican in office.

The most recent Gallup survey, the first conducted entirely after the resignation of Michael Flynn as national security adviser, has Mr. Trump’s approval rating down to 38 percent, with 56 percent disapproving (a differential of minus 18).

It's going to put the house at play in 2018 if he can't raise it. Just watch.

>still trusting polls

screencap this

>Hillary will win this election, only one fake poll has Trump winning

The Gallup survey is all adults, including unregistered voters, it's not worth much other than for showing trends.

He's still not doing very well, though, and has plenty of time to get worse.

i dont know where those numbers are from, but the polls had hillary winning the popular vote and her tied with trump in the swing states. Look at the polls that came out the past 2 days in the rust belt before the election.
Trump's win was within the margin of error.

I see you. Nice get

But thats because Democrats didn't turn out. If we have elections where people assume the Democrat will win they wont come out.

Those numbers are from FiveThirtyEight. They took averages from all "reputable" polls. As you can see, they were completely off.

You are full of shit.

>California
>Red
Literally how

Literally the only way a red California is happening is the rise of a full on communist party that splits the Dem vote 50/50.

Not enough time before the midterm

Finally, my time to shine!

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Difference of 1.1

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6008.html

The national polls were correct. The approval ratings register the national polls. You wanna use favorability polls of rust belt states and Southern states, thats fine. But America didn't vote for him, and America currently doesnt like him.
>make Nevada blue
Everything else will happen if Trump doesn't blow up the planet, or the GOP candidates claim they'll check/balance Trump, which he's on track to doing. Plus keep in mind the healthcare debate, when old fucks get scared of losing their Medicare when shit starts collapsing and GOP gets the blame, Democrats will be capitalizing.
Gallup, along with Fox News at 47% Approve, 48% disapprove. Pew at 56% disapprove. 49% of Iowans disapprove according to Des Moines.
56% of Virginia disapproves according to Quinnipiac.

This is within the week, and we're just getting started. Wait till actual world issues start.

LA Times was wrong. Said Trump was up nationally by 4, he ended up winning by losing by 2.