Top 0.01% user - Economic Update

Top 0.01% user here - I have leaked before to much success. I will reveal below what is going on behind the scenes in the American economy. Hard times are coming - please listen. Traditional bricks and mortar retail in America is getting destroyed (other than a handful of behemoth discounters like Costco, Walmart, etc...). Retail salespersons/cashiers is the most common occupation in America. When the retailers declare bankruptcy, they will start shuttering stores and firing employees. Many retailers will stop paying rent to landlords, a potential majority of which will default on the CMBS notes they carry on property. CMBS defaults were arguably THE atomic bomb that crashed the market in '08/'09. Nearly $100B of CMBS debt expires in '17 - many of these loans were made in '07 at far inflated valuations and WILL NOT BE REFINANCED. This is the ticking time bomb that no one is discussing - please see below.

moodys.com/research/Moodys-Number-of-distressed-US-retailers-triples-since-the-Great--PR_362722

“Over the past six years the number of US retailers on the lowest and distressed tier of its rating spectrum has tripled...Not since the 2008-09 recession has the percentage been so high…”

retaildive.com/news/moodys-number-of-distressed-retailers-nearing-recession-era-levels/437050/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-13/wall-street-has-found-its-next-big-short-in-u-s-credit-market

"Cracks have started to appear. Prices on the BBB- pool of CMBS have slumped from roughly 96 cents on the dollar in late January to 87.08 cents last week, index data compiled by Markit show."

"In the worst-case scenario, the BBB- tranche could incur losses of as much as 50 percent, while the BB portion might lose 70 percent."

Other urls found in this thread:

batr.org/negotium/100913.html
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_of_the_Third_Century
twitter.com/SFWRedditGifs

The Wall Street contacts I speak with have said that there WILL NOT be enough capacity to refinance all of these loans. The bankers created the same problem that caused the '08/'09 crash, except this time there may not be another bailout (if Trump keeps to his promises).

Bump. What are Trump and his team going to do about this?

Blow a lot of hot air at first. I suspect something complicated and Rube Goldbergian but when you break it down it'll basically map to "print a shitload of new money".

It's all they know how to do.

Yeah, but think about all that money saved outsourcing all those jobs to China!

>money

We have decided to reject this meme.

We will meme heaven on Earth, and the pedophile parasites will burn in a different timeline.

Hey, user. I was on with you until 3am last time. Thanks for the update.

Should he let it play itself out and let bad debt be purged. I know the instincts are to print money to prop up the bad debt.

Is AAPL safe? What about BTC and ETH?

bump of interest

Sears' CEO Eddie Lampert is shielding himself the effects of the eventual complete meltdown of Sears by becoming their largest creditor (in addition to the equity he has in the company). In bankruptcy proceeding, he will retain the real-estate (very very valuable) as the rest of the company is liquidated.

The 178,000 (as of '16, Wikipedia figures) employees who work for Sears won't fare as well.

Per usual, these criminals will rape the everyday American stakeholders their firms collapse affects, while parachuting away nearly completely insulated from any harm.

The perpetual scam is this - game bankruptcy codes to pilfer all of the real assets away in the US, and charge ever increasing rents that create an impossible environment for entrepreneurs/small business to succeed.

Nobody, not even Trump has the will to do that. It's much much easier to print out of it than to default.

Only nation that had the balls to default on their debts were the Russkies - everyone else has either rolled their loans over or printed money or both.

so what do the goyim do to survive this?

Not sure. He's a true wildcard. The real question is how much control/influence does (((Mnuchin))) have...

Can the IMF and their SDRs cover the holes this will cause? That will be the only liquidity left won't it?

How should I invest my money for the future?

And Iceland.

Bump!
Does 3D-printing pose a real threat to jobs in a short term perspective, especially, in the construction?

If you work in retail, accumulate other skills quickly before the collapse. The combination of (((Amazon))), automation, and bankruptcy liquidation to seize real assets will cause American unemployment to drastically increase.

I believe this increased unemployment will serve to further ignite race/class/political conflict, and give rise to a large ANTIFA recruiting boom.

...

What's you take on the Credit Default Swap cascade? How will they continue to avoid this detonation?

What are you investing in to protect or even grow value? What do you think of Bitcoin and precious metals?

Invest in China's new yuan somehow, the BRICS are peddling slowly but surely to challenge the IMF, if you have been paying attention to events last year china has been dumping bonds at incredible speeds, Iran dumping the dollar, and DBK one if Germany's biggest bank 20 trillion in derivatives

What jobs/industries will be safest during and after the crash?

bump

If they had skills to begin with, they wouldn't be in retail in the first place, they'd be doing something else.

Whatever you do, don't go into debt.

Ok, what would you do about it (if you could of course) or should be done?

Reallocate 20% of your portfolio or so to gold/silver as a hedge, and 30-50% or so in cash.

Remember - cash is a position too.

security

I'd add that you want PHYSICAL gold/silver. The futures and the ETFs are so full of faggotry it's not even funny. Do. Not. Trust. Paper. Gold.

Should I take my monies out of my bank, what is the time frame for this collapse

That's not going to be the problem. They'll print the money to make the banks whole again. You won't like what happens to the rest of the economy though when they do that.

Banken Ueber Alles...

BTC/ETH?

...

Is this collapse going to be large enough to impact creditors and insurers outside of the bubble? Annuities, mutual funds, and hedges should be safe no?

Not him but I have $45,000 in a 401k at my old company with mostly Vanguard funds. So far it's up about 15% in 3 years. Should I roll over to new company 401k (entirely Vanguard) or release it to a regular IRA.

This. Hyperinflation could occur, enriching capital at the expense of labor. The most harmful affect of this can be seen in the home ownership rate trend, and how this affects the birth rate/class mobility.

Is this also advised for those of us that are young and haven't been working for long? If we only have a few thousand dollars so far, should we just have cash or try to get gold as well?

Let the kike propped up bullshit fail. The nigger/spic lower class shouldn't get additional welfare for not being able to count or read or produce anything. Let them starve.

I'm retarded at some parts of finance won't increased printing cause hyper inflation?

All of these funds are starved for yield. Real, organic (not created from cheap artificial leverage) yield is becoming nearly non-existent in the market.

See Exter's pyramid above to understand how the dominoes will fall.

That doesn't address the massive CDS issue. When that starts to blow...look out. No one knows how big that Blast radius will be.

Put aside a CASH emergency fund first. Maybe $3-5K or so. Once you have this, start accumulating physical gold/silver. See APMEX for best market prices and trusted seller.

Silver. And canned food. Sounds corny but food inflation has been running 10-20% a year. At the worst you can eat it.

Can we get some predictive timelines? I would geek out if someone could even just give their guess on how this will play out month to month for the next year.

So if I own my house free and clear (same for my car) will I ride this out a little easier?

Don't be foolish - this will absolutely GUT the American middle class. Retirement accounts and pensions will vanish into thin air. Nearly all the major pensions are already substantially underfunded at this moment...

Who or what started this mess op?

Muh shiney sheckels
If the paper folds the kikes aren't finished yet, they need a reset to setup a new scheme they can parasite from. They have allready schemed the dollar too many ways.

I'd like a labor backed currency, each state gets it's own. Skilled labor is worth much more of course but somehow these wall street thiefs and kike financial bullshitters need to get gassed out of the economy. If you don't produce anything of value FUCK OFF.

So your solution is more ((((((borrowing)))))) to inflate a false economy even worse and communism our way to prosperity trusting bankers and politicians to """save""" the economy they purposely fucked up with thier FED schemes and wallstreet money laundering? Eat shit.

They fixed NOTHING in 08/09. This is only inning 5 of a long depression that has yet to play out. Default has to eventually happen. The world cannot support the current level of debt.

Max is it you ?

I keep hearing so many narratives of collapse it's hard to take seriously which doom scenario is going to be the one which does us in. It's only a matter of time before one of the crises does us in.

The real question I have is, could the US afford another bailout, if it wanted to? Or would printing money create the hyperinflation that some thought was going to happen back in 2008?

>Traditional bricks and mortar retail in America is getting destroyed
Nonsense. The economy is in full recovery. Obama has added many, many jobs. You just didn't work hard enough.

CDS's are derivatives - of course they are a ticking time bomb.

I would imagine that the IMF would cover the liquidity crisis with SDR per the scenario Jim Rickards lays out in Currency Wars. I linked this book before. This plays right into the elite globalist plans to consolidate all global credit into the same hands which wish to assimilate all of us into one world government/economy/etc...

So what happens collapse, or another war?

Okay, we go full-on right wing after

I actually have both an emergency fund and storage already; I will look at getting some solid metal, thanks for the advice.

should have used this pic

So America gets blamed for holding an insane about of debt?

The labour backed currency is an interesting idea, what do you think about a resource-based currency. Like oil or water/food/crops.

Thoughts on bitcoin?

Another bailout would completely destroy any remaining trust between the people and the government. We are $20T in debt, so it's almost comical to think about us being able to afford anything...

China is already dumping all of their treasuries - the master class that run their slave economy are very intelligent and know exactly what is going to happen. They will have cash to come in and buy more of our country that will be sold off by the politicians.

By cash, do mean savings in a bank - or do you mean to have physical cash in case of a Cyprus event?

Yep. We had the same exchange last time too. I've read all Jim's books and get his daily Intel newsletter. Guess I need to actually (re)start paying attention. I buried my head again last year.

Also the Student debt bubble is going to burst which is going to suck

Yes, if China allies with EU and forces us to take their combined military strength seriously...

Trump is stoking the flames of EU exit for a reason - a unified EU army allied with an increasingly hostile China poses a real threat to our military.

It's foolish to think that America is invincible and immune from unlimited debt anymore - we are crippled with some very serious issues that are continuing to get worse year over year.

Is Trump aware?

Physical cash. Physical cash is always superior to numbers on a screen...

the dollar basically is backed by oil in some sense. since everyone needs dollars to buy oil (petrodollarsystem) everyone needs dollars so they create an demand which gives the dollar value despite being non stop printed

>we had better keep propping up the dead system at the cost of some hapless generation down the road
you guys are literally the problem

Yes - see massive bump in military spending. The only reason we get away with what we do on a global stage is because of our gigantic military strength.

>China is already dumping all of their treasuries - the master class that run their slave economy are very intelligent and know exactly what is going to happen. They will have cash to come in and buy more of our country that will be sold off by the politicians.

Smart move indeed. Prime territory at firesale prices.

Don't forget that China is tremendously in debt as well, albeit it's structured with SOEs rather than sovereign debt. Their bombs have yet to go off from all the worthless real estate they've been producing.

That's very astute.

I heard some warnings a few weeks ago that China was buying up a lot of California.
Hollywood studios, lots of land, some housing and guns. Are they going to go for a big chunk of our country, and potentially win a piece of the US somehow, if the right people sell out to them?
Or is our country going to survive invasion only to fall into a Depression?

Management is my skill, and I've used it in retail. However, your graph showed "lodging" does not seem to take as bad of a hit. Hotel industry looks promising, no?

There's also relatively less of it too compared to the screen money too. It's why they always impose ATM withdrawal limits when a Cyprus happens.

I learned of this the other day. Smart move but fucked up. Ive had a feeling it was coming for a while, so many signs. I just don't know the exact time frame. Feels like this year but I thought that last year. All companies do now is buy back their stocks and trick people into thinking they are strong. It's at insane levels.

Never claimed this. I realize the system needs to fail, but you need to really understand what that scenario could look like. Nearly 50 million Americans are on food stamps - imagine what happens when their plastic stops swiping and they are already indoctrinated to blame white men for every problem that ails them.

Obama didn't do anything besides a new Cold War and Obama care

What timeline do you see ahead? How much time is left to prepare? Weeks, months, longer than a year?

Bingo. My buddy at Deloitte worked on a PBOC account that had been buying up mom and pop farms across flyover US to aggregate into Chinese owned agricultural conglomerates. The Chinese buy industries/resources Americans NEED to live...

>Whatever you do, don't go into debt

A thousand times, this. I know it's easier for some people than others, but do everything you possibly can to avoid debt. It may mean sacrificing some comfort/luxury now, but it will pay off in the long run.

I don't think anything is going back to the way things were this year.

Here's the redpill...

batr.org/negotium/100913.html

start
a
war
with
xxxx, xxxx and xxxx

Will this lead to war?

>Nearly 50 million Americans are on food stamps - imagine what happens when their plastic stops swiping and they are already indoctrinated to blame white men for every problem that ails them.

What I don't understand is how powerful people assume that there will always be enough money to purchase votes from the government treasury. Don't get me wrong, welfare is humane, but in terms of building your power base on, it's extremely precarious ground. Welfare ought to be something of last resort rather than a way of governing.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_of_the_Third_Century

So if I'm a grad student preparing to go into military research will I be alright?

I can't imagine the stock market not seriously correcting by the end of this year. I do not believe the central banker magicians will allow a massive abrupt crash to happen... We could hit whatever bottom is in '18...

I wish I could offer more, but the situation is so fucked that it cannot even be properly quantified. Everything is bullshit - numbers on a screen kept whole by unlimited central bank purchases and currency manipulation.

Op what about Bitcoin and etherum you never mentioned anything about it. Have 100 bitcoins and 2000 ether in but no gold. Wut do I doooo?

Are there any put options to speculate on?

I just heard that Sears is going under

I think you are in a great spot... Automation is another place to be too...

too late - 12k in debt, much of it from PROPERTY TAXES for another family member, who won't list the fucking property to cash out with. There is a war on the (white)middle class, and the middle class is losing bigtime

In the event of heated conflict between the US and China, what are the odds of the US enacting asset repatriation policies to put chinese-owned assets in the US back into American hands?

>game bankruptcy codes to pilfer all of the real assets away in the US
All the booms and bust are engineered to create massive asset transfer from ordinary people to the banksters. It's a giant Ponzi scheme. The can may well be kicked down the road a little further but, after 2007/08, the can will be kicked up a steepening hill. The real bust is coming and, unlike the last one, it's going to be a central bank debt crisis. I see that as the global elites plan for introducing new levels of central control over global currencies... Who knows, maybe even a global currency. Unless Trump pulls the rug out from under them, we're fucked.

if things do go the direction it looks like, we're gonna have a bolshevik revolution scenario going down.

Will the 2020s be the 1930s all over again?

I don't trust any of the cryptos... If I did buy some, it would be bitcoin. I like PM's, paper cash, and barter...