Can you help me with my problem, Sup Forums?

Can you help me with my problem, Sup Forums?

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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharashka
youtube.com/watch?v=cpwSGsb-rTs
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem
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>heated gulag
I think there's a flaw in your logic.

50%

If you're in a heated barrack, you can be sure you're not in the one on the far right. So it's a question of whether you're in the middle one or left one. 50/50

At first glance I would say 50%, but It's higher than 50%.

It's more likely that you are in the gulag with 2 barracks because you got randomly placed in a barrack.

I'm going with 75% probability.

I think the fact that he got placed into a heated barrack randomly means it is less likely that he is in the gulag with only 1 barrack. It's more likely he's in the 2 barrack gulag.

hi shareblue

protip: if you really want to get sorted, read, articulate your beliefs and speak about them openly and in public

Sup Forums has gone to the leftists, it is time to fight back with reason

66.6%

This is my second guess. I'm not good at math, just logic, so I don't know. it's either 75% or 66.6%

It's for the better prisoners, e.g. soviet intellectuals and such.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharashka

Do you have the answer OP or are you just asking us.

You are not being assigned to a gulag at random, you are being assigned to a heated barrack.

There are three heated barracks total.

One prison contains two heated barracks and another has one.

You have 66% chance to be assigned to the gulag with two heated barracks. 33% chance to be assigned to the gulag with one heated barrack.

There is a 66% percent chance that there will be another heated barrack as that was your probability of being assigned to that gulag.

just wait a few minutes before reading:

Baye's theorem nigger.

P(A|B) = (P(B|A)P(A))/P(B)

3 gulags
Each 2 units

16.6% per unit to get in at random.

Prisoner gets put directly in warm barrack.
He only hd a chance of 16.6% of getting put in the pit. Now there is still a warm barrack, so that 16.6% + the other, is 33.3% chance he would be in de gulag with a warm barrack and a pit.

That leaves 66.6% chance of being in the gulag with another warm barrack next to him

I admire all the work you put into making this politics related

Here's a way to rephrase the question:
2/3 of the heated barracks are in gulag 1
you were randomly assigned to a heated barracks
what are the odds you are in gulag 1?

answer: 2/3

50%, easy.

You are in one of two camps which have heated units in the first place. One of them has a second heated one, the other does not. Therefore 50%. The rest of the information in the picture is just there to mislead you.

The problem dictates that you will pull out a gold ball no matter what. One box has no gold balls.

Therefore there are two boxes that we are concerned with.

One box has 2 gold balls (66.6% of total gold balls)

Another box has 1 gold ball (33.3% of total gold balls)

Therefore, you have 33.3% of choosing a gold ball from the box with silver ball and 66.6% chance of choosing a golden ball from the box with two golden balls.

1/2

Probability is as real as the Holocaust

50%, I figured it out all by myself!

No, zawsze bylem chujowy z matmy.
Dlatego teraz czyszcze kible.

Irish language is so weird.

Właściciele firm sprzątających mają w chuj kasy.

this.

You are operating under the condition that its a heated barack.

Total amout of possible events is 2.

1 ( 2 heated) or
2 (heated and air)

so its 1/2

its conditional probability

are you preparing to be liberated by russia again?

Possible events is three.

The condition is that you are going to be assigned to a gulag at random, but a second condition is given that you will be assigned to a heated barrack.

A B C

Three events.

This is so true.

It represents the way it could have happened. But all that really matters in the end is how it actually happened.

> You are not being assigned to a gulag at random.

It literally says "you are assigned a gulag at random." It LITERALLY says that.

póg mo thóin

wlasciciele, pracownicy robia za najnizsza
jeszcze w zyciu polaka 'wlasciela' czegokolwiek wartego tutaj nie widzialem

total amount of possible events is 2

1 you get abducted by an alien in the next 10 seconds
2 you don't

so it's 1/2. conditional probability.

no

The fact that I'm in one makes it more likely that I'm in the first gulag

Nope. You've already assigned to the heated barrack, so it doesn't matter what was the probability of you getting there. It's a red herring.

why not?

I'll ask Shalamov

related ted ed
youtube.com/watch?v=cpwSGsb-rTs

For people saying it's 50-50, imagine there are 1000000 barracks to each gulag. One gulag is fully heated, another has 1 heated barrack, the last has none. Given that you're in a heated barrack, do you really think it's particularly likely you're in the gulag with just one heated barrack? No. So it's more than 50%.

Mar an gcéanna

okay lets change the numbers here, obviously we won't end up with the same final numerical answer but it will illustrate the concept

gulag 1 has 9000 heated barracks and 1 open air pit
gulag 2 has 1 heated barracks and 6,000,000 open air pits

you get randomly assigned and end up in a heated barracks. is it more likely that you're in gulag 1 or 2?

same concept but just with smaller ratio

Seriously guys, have a very quick read of the intro and then the formula..

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem

Okay, you're right

being good with numbers is how Jews trick people with banking. if you're bad with numbers then anything that that involves numbers will also involve a Jew swindling you

It really depends on how you calculate it.

Consider that there are three possible heated Gulags and two of them are adjacent to another.
That means you have a 66% chance of picking a barrack's next to another one.

But if you are already in the barracks, you have a 50% chance that the one next door to you is heated.

In this scenario, the probability would be 2/3 or 66.6%

How is anyone saying 50%

a worthy reference.

you see i don't know Irish well but i know enough to see you just used google translate because what you said just doesn't make sense.

better just cyka blyat me

i will shoot myself in the leg some day for missing the opportunity to learn russian, no im to old to be fluent in anything

they're literally the same people who say winning the lottery is 50-50

because it's already guaranteed that you're on a gulag with a heated barrack so you can only be on the left gulag or middle gulag. The chance that the other unit in my gulag is also a heated barrack is 1/2 then.

But those are Space Marine barracks.
They make Space Marines.

It's an oven

Except that one Gulag has more heated barracks than the other which increases your odd of being in that one given the only thing you know is that YOU are in a heated barracks.

Bayes theorem. Read it and learn. One of the few statistical theorems that is genuinely useful.

>Well, I've always been a duck with a mat.
>That is why now cleans the hood

>Właściciele firm sprzątających mają w chuj kasy
Owners of cleaning companies have a cash register

oh i know how this works
i pick door #1, you open either door 2 or door 3 then ask me if i want to switch

i say yes

>wlasciciele, pracownicy robia za najnizsza
>jeszcze w zyciu polaka 'wlasciela' czegokolwiek wartego tutaj nie widzialem
kiss my ass

Owners, employees are doing the lowest
Yet in the life of a Pole, the 'owner' of anything worth seeing here did not see

oh man we just had this thread with over 400 replies, we all agreed in the end the answer is 50%

Then you were all wrong. Sorry.

...

it's 2/3 then?

In all serious Cunts, is his self-authoring worth doing?

Yessir.