Is pol smart?

i ses a lot of bragging here about "muh high iq" yet scientists have debunked iq a long time ago. iq is also racist.

Other urls found in this thread:

strawpoll.me/12624128
twitter.com/AnonBabble

2/3

I GOT BALLS OF STEEL

BALLS BALLS BALLS BALLS BALLS

answer here: strawpoll.me/12624128

50%

If the first ball was gold, it is not the 2 silver box, so 50/50

always switch doors

This.

If you picked a gold ball, you're either reaching into box 1 or 2. Equal chance the next is gold or silver.

50%

1/3

50%
You can't get the right box.
You have picked either the left or middle box, eliminating a gold ball from each.
The only balls remaining in either are gold and silver, so 50% chance.

but for real it's 2/3, if you pull out a gold ball you're twice as likely to have picked box 1 than box 2

This

Unless this is some goat/door bullshit.

2/5

>It's a "Sup Forums pretends not to understand the Monty Hall problem for 400 posts" episode

2/3

No. I couldn't hack it in engineering in university so I ended up being a system administrator.

I make the same money but I feel like a moron because i'm not actually a STEM master race user.

This isn't Monty Hall.

2/3

SWITCH DOORS

It's a very similar problem related to probability/uncertainty, the math is practically identical

P(A|B)=P(A and B)/P(B) = 2/3

Never mind, I thought you pick at random again. The chances are 1/2.
The 2 silver boxes haven't been picked, so counting them is useless, leaving 2 boxes. Since you took a gold one, the next one could be box 1 or 2. So 1/2

No you are not. The number of gold balls in the box doesnt affect whether u picked the left or middle box.

Correct answer is 50%

1/6
>reach into box one which gives you a 1/12 chance of silver
>reach into box two which gives you a 7/12 silver
>reach into box three which gives you 11/12 chance silver
>11-7=3
>3-1=2
>2/12=1/6

Fucking plebs

/thread

If you didn't answer 2/3 then you should remove yourself from the gene pool.

If you take 1 golden ball then out there's only 1 box that would still have a golden ball left in it out of the 3 boxes therefore the probability is 1/3

You sure you arn't more interested in reaching for black balls, OP?

Fucking idiots

You are correct!

1/1000000000000000 of a chance

You reach into the same box. Reread it. If you reached in and grabbed a gold ball that means that there's only two possible fucking boxes that you could have picked. Now what are the chances that if you reached into the SAME BOX you would get another gold ball. This there is only two possible boxes you could have picked from, and the two possible balls left to grab is either a gold or a silver...it's a 50% chance.

simple as fuck
you know that you took a gold ball, you have the same chance to take any of the 3 gold balls, the question is: knowing all that what are the chances that you are in box N°1?
>you know you took one of the 3 gold balls
>you had the same chances to take any one of them
> 2 of them are in box N°1, 1 is in box N°2, 0 are in box N°3
>conclusion: 2 out of 3 chances that you are in box N°1

no its not
Monty hall involves someone taking away a known bad choice

The question isn't asking what box you're in retard. It's simple conditional probability.

50% in real life
66% in autistic math theory

>assuming the chances of reaching into each of the two boxes is equal
Wrong

>50% answered 1/2
Jesus, I though all the conditional probability bait threads were always just filled with trolls.

You know you are in one of two boxes
The third box is irrelevant

No it's not, because the two-silver box is now out of the running. The Monty Hall problem allows you to choose one of the other doors after choosing the first. Here you can't switch boxes, you're locked into the box you chose, which reduces the probability of silver from 3/6 to 1/4. But you've also removed two of the gold balls from the probability, which leaves you with a 1/2 chance.

Do a large number of trials in real life and you'll get 2/3.

Is pol joking? I can't tell. I'm sure some of you are "gifted teens" who don't like to accept you're shit at probability, but most of you are just joking right?

Whats given in the question automatically means the right box is eliminated.
All thats left is one gold and one silver.
So 50%

Physics gypsy here. Correct answer is 2/3. Trust me I know about gold'n'copper and shit.

No, you won't. The 66% arguments relies on the fact you don't know the color of the ball you picked. ie autistic math without taking into account new data a human would

It doesn't matter
The odds of you reaching into the same box are 100% because that is what the question states

No you fucking moron. You took one gold ball which means that the remaining possibilities are 2 gold balls and 1 silver ball. AKA 2/3 chance to pick another gold ball.

The premise is different, the problem's the same.

No wonder Romania is a third world country.

>iq is also racist
What did he mean by this?

>choosing a ball from box 3 has less than 100% chance of being silver.

Pretty simple user.

It's simple Bayes: Probability of choosing 2 gold balls (1/3 chances) divided by Probability of choosing gold ball given you've chosen 1 gold ball already (1/2 chances).

or.

P(B|A) = P(A U B) / P(A|B) = 1/3 / 1/2 = 2/3

I'm talking about the condition that you are getting a gold ball.

>2 gold balls and 1 silver ball.
You eliminated one gold ball form each of the remaining boxes so its one gold and one silver

>fucking oxymorons
what about the 600000000000 gazilion?

Mentaly retarded inbreed monkeys. There are only 2 balls in the fucking box. There can not be 1/3 or 2/3 dumb fucking mentaly challenged retards.

No that is completely incorrect. Read the condition again.

There are 3 gold balls. 1 and 2 are in one box. 3 is in another with 4.
If you pick 1, the next ball is 2 - gold.
If you pick 2, the next ball is 1 - gold.
If you pick 3, the next ball is 4- silver.
2/3 chance it will be gold.

50%

So much this. Why don't people understand this simple truth?

Learn basic probabilities retard.

It's 1/2

If you are picking from the same box as the gold ball you just picked then there is only two options on what that ball can be which is either another gold or silver. fff

1/2

SAME BOX YOU DUMB NIGGER. 1/2 OR 50%
FUCKTARD

not politics

For the idiots:

It's 2/3

What is the likelihood you picked 1 gold 1 silver and picked the 1 gold first?

If you picked gold first, you are more likely to have picked it from 2 gold.

Instead of doing gold/silver, think about it as "what are the chances the second ball you pick is the same color as the first ball you pick?" 2/3 boxes are 2 of the same, so 2 out of 3 times the second ball you pick will be of the same color, regardless of what color you pick.

Pay denbts and then I might take your math opinions more seriously.

>reads riddle
>confused
>"where the fuck did the golf balls come from"?
>rereads riddle
>kys

but you know there is only one ball left in the box you are opening
this is why you eliminate two gold balls instead of one

Answer is 2/3s

There are 3 gold balls, so it has to be out of 3.

2 balls will result in you picking another gold. The two in the same box. The 3rd ball will have you choose a silver ball. Hence, 2/3.

>tfw to intelligent to waste my time on puzzles

we had two thread on this same puzzle 12 hours ago.

I made the one with the Peterson gulags.

You have to pull from the same box
1.if you pulled from box 1 then your next chance of getting gold is 100%
2. if you pulled from box 2 then your next chance of getting gold is 0% since you already took the gold ball out.
So your chances are 50% or 1/2

It does affect the probability of that a particular box was chosen because it is conditional on a gold ball being picked. Every instance where box 1 is chosen produces a gold ball whereas only half of the instances of box 2 being chosen produce a gold ball.

Consider a similar problem. You have two machines, one that exclusively spits out gold balls and one that only spits a gold ball out 1% of the time, and is silver 99% of the time. You observe one event in which a gold ball is spit out. Which machine is it more likely to be?

every african at my grad school (i'm in stem) that i asked about this problem got it right. proves that africans are smarter than you

>but you know there is only one ball left in the box you are opening
Totally irrelevant. The initial pick is a random gold ball.

this

>the same box

2/3rds because if the first ball you pick up is gold that means only 3 balls can possibly remain and only one of them is silver

It's deceitful because it doesn't state specifically that the ball is taken out. Just that you picked it. If you put it back it's 2/3. If not it's half.

no there are not
see

>but you know there is only one ball left in the box you are opening
this is why you eliminate two gold balls instead of one
Are you stupid or retarded? I honestly can't tell.

Hey fucking retard. You take it as a fact that you picked the gold ball. What the fuck don't you undestand mentally handicapped kid?

...

Not thing fucking post every time. All the /50%/ retards can fuck off I know logically it is but in autistic mathematical theory it's 2/3 look up Bertrand box paradox and if you refute this I know you haven't. It's 2/3 and that's it.

troll detected

>trusting a physicist with math

...

Wrong. There are three possible gold balls that you could have picked. Think harder.

All these fucking retards saying 2/3 lmao and shit talking the people answering correctly none the less.

If you think it's 2/3, you read the question wrong.
A gold ball has already been picked.
The whole premise is that a gold ball has already been picked.

The question also doesn't state wether you put the ball back or not. if you were to put it back and randomly choose again, it would be 2/3.

People who boast about how smart they are usually are not very smart.

If this is wrong, someone please explain to me how.

>asks a HS math level question
Really, OP? Are you that pathetic of a human that you sit around doing autism puzzles all goddamn day?

>Take a ball from that box
Found the pajeet pretending to be an american

box 1 - 100%
box 2 - 0%
box 3- 0%
Box 1 has 2 gold so it's 100% the second ball you take will be gold. Box 2 and 3 are 0% because you already removed a gold ball and box 2 only has one and box 3 doesn't have one at all so there is no way that is the box you pulled from.

There are only 2 choices so the chance is 50%.

It doesn't matter what chances are of picking the double gold box are. By taking out 1 gold ball the box in question now has 1 ball left which can only be EITHEE of the following: gold or silver. The answer is 50%.

You guys and your silly brain gymnastics..

lmao

1 in two chance of the next ball selected being gold.

How? You took a gold ball from either box 1 or 2. Therefore box 3 is out of the picture. So you have a 50% chance of getting gold ball from box 1 or 50% of silver ball in box 2. EZ

Look up Bertrand box paradox and realise you're wrong