Central banks are up to something???

WTF Consumer confidence index is through the roof.
Stock market has never been more bullish.
Seriously? Fundamentals are shit.
Some kind of a giant bubble is brewing?
Retail is fucked.
Used car market has been hit hard.
Some shit is brewing in the subprime car loan industry.
Health insurance premiums are skyrocketing
Millions are in default on the student loans
Etc Etc You know all that.
Fucking scary. I mean don't find the tape but tighten your stops...

Other urls found in this thread:

nber.org/digest/oct08/w13953.html
visualcapitalist.com/gold-series-history-gold/
mises.org/library/fiasco-fiat-money
money.visualcapitalist.com/currency-and-the-collapse-of-the-roman-empire/
save-a-patriot.org/files/view/whofed.html
armstrongeconomics.com/qa/the-creature-from-jekyll-island/
marketwatch.com/story/house-panel-passes-bill-to-audit-the-fed-2017-03-28
atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/deu/
twitter.com/AnonBabble

The bigger the bubble the bigger the burst. What better way to completely fuck Trump over than to incite a recession that makes the GFC look like a fucking joke.

It's all smoke and mirrors. Americans seem to optimists regardless of the real situation.

Find a way to benefit from it, I guess. And always diversify.

current PER of US stock market is above 26.

It's highest standard except 1929 and 2000.

Roaring twenties.

Should I wait until after the crash to buy a used vehicle?

That is a tricky indicator. Just like about any others. They have like a dozen of different variations based on P/E trying to find a better correlation with the market.

Used car monthly prices recently dropped 8% yoy so maybe it is time

check this senpai

top 0.1% user posted an interesting thread about CMBS imploding in 2017

>W
>S
>S
>S
>R
>U
>S
>H
>M
>E
>F

what did he mean by this?

It all comes crashing down, one way or another.

Gotta knock that girl over with full force.

Praise kek

If you have money outside of hard currency you can consider it lost.

Seeds, tools, 6 months food supply, firearms and ammunition, and hard currency will be the only thing that secures your place in this world. An imaginary stock holding can disappear if the elite want to hurt you.

People post about this shit every year. Some year it'll be right, but chances are this isn't the year. You have plebeians who don't know anything about economics outside of talking points from the defunct Austrian school trying to say they see the signs of collapse, meanwhile it's just another tick in the business cycle.

"Silly goyim, nothing is wrong. Continue maxing out that 401K!"

What is your endgame kike?

Bump

"Yes, millenial goyim, no one needs to own anything anymore! Rent forever and pay half of your paycheck away to (((us))) each month for your 600 SF micro-studio!"

every month we have the peanut gallery of economically illiterate virgins saying the end of the world/the big crash is coming

go play video games or something

"Silly goyim, gold is worthless. Paper money is ignorant - welcome the new cashless society!"

The bubble will be inflated by Trump.
Last attempt will be printing money, that's why they go for the FED and against any regulations like Dodd-Frank.
It will take some time, though.

Wisdom

Basics covered:
2k rounds of 5.56
1k rounds of 9x19
3k rounds of .22lr
500 12gauge shells
reloading press & supplies

AR15 x2
Pistols x5
Bolt action .22lr
12ga pump action

Dozens of stocked first aid kits
Prescriptions & Celox
Hygienic supplies (soap, TP)

4x4 truck
Scant 30-60 days of food
60+ gallons of drinking water, filters, etc
bug out location(s)
battlebuddy
battlebro (live & train together & have comms)


[spoiler] fuck your precious metals [/spoiler]

And here comes the guy posting the meme graph that's literally a bad presentation of data.

nber.org/digest/oct08/w13953.html

inb4 tries to claim (((Feldstein))) invalidates the argument based on economics instead of shit data science.

Surprise surprise it's literally a guy posting graphs he saved and thinking it means a lick when he can't interpret the data.

sp500 companies are global behemoths. They get a substantial amount of revenue from overseas.

we rebel against the bourgeoisie

Question - do you think rapidly declining real HH income growth and home ownership rates are benign trends? Do you not understand that when a country borrows massive amounts of money, both at the government and corporate levels, that this enlarged future debt service must be paid off via larger future economic growth? Are you aware of the rapid birth-rate decline in the US? Do you understand that the movement towards "urban live/work/play" living will continue to destroy the birth rate?

Do you even understand how critical a country's birth rate is to its economy? Do you understand that domestic consumption will take major hits as middle America continues to evaporate?

Maybe those things you're citing are only outdated textbook fundamentals these days. Retail? Seriously?

>Surprise surprise it's literally a guy posting graphs he saved and thinking it means a lick when he can't interpret the data.
Zero substance. If you are going to attempt to refute what I shared, try harder.

I studied and work in finance. I know exactly what the fuck I am talking about.

Roughly 1 in 5 Americans is employed in the retail industry. Shopping centers make up almost 30% of the total debt service paid to the CMBS market.

Retail is critically important to our economy, especially when our balance of trade is so negative.

holy shit...
an user announced it few days ago. He was saying it was because most of the federal bounds used in the 2007 subprime crises were backed and guaranted by the government for 10 years. Of course no one want to buy all theses fraudulent and worthless bounds, so it was just a first aid bandage supposed to gain time back then.
tl;dr : it will be 2007, -777.77 crashmarket all over again this summer.

I'm worried that this will be their final tactic aside from assassination attempts.

>If we can't give america to moloch, then we'll crash the economy while making money off it!

Or something.

>Roughly 1 in 5 Americans is employed in the retail industry.
Why do I get deus ex feelings in my stomach?

Real household income is a shit statistic compared to total compensation for individuals. It's harder to get data on, so I'm not surprised you picked the easily googleable misleading graph. We've seen a drastic trend this generation away from salaries and towards variable pay like overtime, benefits, and pay based on your actual work in 'postindustrial' jobs. There's also the issue of changing household structure (persons per household has dropped, no brainer youll see household income drop). That's much better of an indicator, and it's doing fine by all measurements.

And I'm well acquainted on how debt works, considering I've studied these topics for close to 7 years now. Regardless of that, you just tried bringing in birthrate out of the blue when it's been thusfar unmentioned in the thread. I'll take that as admitting you don't know what 'homeownership rate' is actually a measure of, and that you didn't know that the first graph I replied to is literally propaganda using shoddily put together data using all sorts of different weights and bad metrics. Gold is a can of worms because it's the biggest running econ-meme on Sup Forums and even trying to say "the gold standard was not optimal" will get me labeled a shill or jew.

The birthrate issue is, of course, a real issue. That's why you can see solutions arising from push towards automation (japan) and push towards cheap imported labor (Merkl).

You absolutely do not work in finance. If you do, you definately got a degree in something like stats, financial math, finance, quantative finance, economics, etc. Most of which will require you to take an intermediate macroeconomics course in which these metrics and statistics are actually gone into. Either you forgot everything you learned, you're lying about experience, or you've intentionally thrown all your academic experience out the window because you think a job in the finance sector gives you superior knowledge in economics. In any case, you're making data interpretation errors that don't match with your job claim.

Birth rate is, however, a substantial issue. Not enough to give the united states an collapse this year though, which was my original point.

How about the fed raising interest rates?

Crash in 2018? Or can they make it hold until before 2020 elections? Even if they can I'd be surprised if Europe can hold off war until 2020.

Not him and you may be right but the funny thing is that a lot of people who do work in finance still don't know what they are talking about. But they are really good at explaining past events.

>Gold is a can of worms because it's the biggest running econ-meme on Sup Forums
Why don't you study up on the history of gold? You should consider its uses, scarcity, and history since Mesopotamia as THE globally recognized store of wealth.

visualcapitalist.com/gold-series-history-gold/

How about you study up on fiat currency? Fiat currency will always fail. There is no debate on this. Empires have risen and fallen since the beginning of time. Scarcity will always have a massive effect on value - period. Fiat currency is not a scarce good, and its supply is not fixed. It can be inflated at whim by a Federal Reserve that is not an actual Federal entity. This is done purposefully to manufacture crashes that further assimilate the totality of global credit into a small set of elite royal families' hands.

mises.org/library/fiasco-fiat-money
money.visualcapitalist.com/currency-and-the-collapse-of-the-roman-empire/

Boom
and
The Biggest Bust.

read reverse

FEM
RUSH
SSWS

but what it mean?

I know it's history and fiat currency because unlike you, way back when i was an undergraduate freshman I bothered to learn macroeconomics. The GS is flat out not as optimal to the economy as having a central bank regardless of your 'power to the individual' intentions having gold backed currency. Also another key giveaway that you're bullshitting about work in the financial sector.

>that is not an actual Federal entity

"The Board of Governors in Washington, D.C ... reports to and is directly accountable to the Congress"

"Some observers mistakenly consider the Federal Reserve to be a private entity because the Reserve Banks are organized similarly to private corporations. For instance, each of the 12 Reserve Banks operates within its own particular geographic area, or District, of the United States, and each is separately incorporated and has its own board of directors. Commercial banks that are members of the Federal Reserve System hold stock in their District's Reserve Bank. However, owning Reserve Bank stock is quite different from owning stock in a private company. The Reserve Banks are not operated for profit, and ownership of a certain amount of stock is, by law, a condition of membership in the System. In fact, the Reserve Banks are required by law to transfer net earnings to the U.S. Treasury, after providing for all necessary expenses of the Reserve Banks, legally required dividend payments, and maintaining a limited balance in a surplus fund."

Literally on the federal reserve website, and if you think I'm going to take you seriously when you link to an Austrian economics website then you're sorely mistaken. No one in the real world takes those goons seriously outside of the already-adopted-contributions their thinkers have made which have been deemed "not horseshit".

these are dubels of truth

The stock market is stagnant retard.

I absolutely do work in finance. I do not believe in Keynesian economics.

I work for a company that legitimately creates alpha. I do not sit and pontificate all day behind a desk - we have to find deals, execute deals, and secure a capital stack.

America's future has always been contingent upon a strong middle-class. People only work hard when they believe they have incentive to work hard (the American dream). We are in a massive residential property bubble, which is compounded by tax laws in states like California where property owners are disincentivized to sell or renovate their properties. The 1% is arbitraging cheap interest rates and special treatment (non-recourse high leverage loans) to back the truck up and gobble up as much real assets as possible. Companies like Blackstone then collude to monopolize residential rent in entire geographic areas, and less money flows into the hands of normal Americans (which domestic consumption is dependent upon).

Trick down economics is a farce, and ever empire in the history of mankind with this kind of wealth inequality has always collapsed. I don't care what Marxist central bank sponsored study you link - I know exactly what the fuck is going on right now. Social unrest will grow, the bubble will pop when the 10 year T pops another 100 bps or so, and you will be proven wrong.

Not inherently evil, that's all that can be said. More often than not (in the United States) our Fed is beneficial and not some evil jewish conspiracy that's using putting rates up to make a buck or using Seigniorage to kill the economy like in some countried with a fully state controlled Federal Bank.

You do NOT work in finance. If you do then this thread says more about needed reform in financial sector hiring practices than about an upcoming collapse.

>Trick down economics is a farce

Why even bring up this term when no serious economist or academic uses it. It's another case of literally propaganda.

None of the acid eating away at the underpinnings of the world economy went away. They're just building faster with the expectation of a collapse happening just as fast by doing so as not.

Besides, having a recession/depression coincide with Brexit will cause maximum damage for the separation and serve as a warning for others.

Banks are shareholders of the Federal Reserve. These banks are public entities. They are owned by funds, which have very large investors nested behind multiple special-purpose entities. I do this for a living, I'm not some "researcher" jackass like you that has never lifted a finger.

Ownership in the main funds that own shares in the banks can all be traced to NM Rothschild sub-entities that control an ENORMOUS amount of private wealth through a privately held merchant banking system.

Links below if you want to learn more and remove your head from your ass.

save-a-patriot.org/files/view/whofed.html

armstrongeconomics.com/qa/the-creature-from-jekyll-island/

>You do NOT work in finance. If you do then this thread says more about needed reform in financial sector hiring practices than about an upcoming collapse.
More ad hominem attacks while refuting nothing.

*publicly-traded entities (typo)

Nothing to see here goyim
marketwatch.com/story/house-panel-passes-bill-to-audit-the-fed-2017-03-28

economic growth is tied to the price of oil

We will have stagnation for a long time, unless government is scaled back, and the free market is allowed to invest in massive infrastructure projects that are energy efficient. like large apartment blocks for middle class people.

Scared money don't make no money niggas. Buy, buy, buy!

Assuming you work in the financial sector (heavy doubt) then you don't exactly lift fingers either, you do the same shit I do except with a different end goal.

>mentioning Rothschilds when talking about the Fed

Fuck off. This is devolving into Alex Jones rabble really quickly.

I've literally been working through refuting everything you're saying besides birth rates because that's the only substantial issue you've raised. Also this is fucking Sup Forums, if you expect no ad hominems you need to leave.

>ready for the graboid invasion

Yes, that was me. An enormous amount of debt originated at the height of the 2007 bubble will not be successfully refinanced. Particularly, oil and retail related long-term notes with a balloon payment will completely default.

So buy Bitcoin?

calm down both. use your logic and meritoric answ. , too hard for someone who is problay high in famous "american education" ?

The American middle class has been raped by the redistribution of wealth upwards. Destroy it enough, and you end up with an oligarchy supported on the backs of wage slaves.

Thus, we have the age of Wal-Mart, the cheapening of labor values, and the inevitable destruction of the endless-debt system and governmental supports.

So find a good tree and some strong rope?

you are the one retarded. check some charts for the last few months. SPY or DJ specifically.

We're due for a major correction hopefully it's not violent.. but if it is mannn.... Trump is going to be a solidified 1 term president.

Sounds like something that can be blamed on Obama... that poor bastard

Well laddy I'm off to give a review session for my class so this will have to be continued at another point in your future. Good luck with your 'financial' work.

You never know, he might be able to kick the can down the road long enough via Reaganomics 2.0.

>Fuck off. This is devolving into Alex Jones rabble really quickly.
I thought it was too, until I applied proper due-diligence to it. The corporate veil can be pierced, and you can trace the nested entities all the way to the true source.

You must live in some ridiculously sheltered bubble to be so naive. I am guessing you are a Jew that grew up in Manhattan or California and attended NYU or some Ivy League school dominated by Marxist intelligentsia and safe spaces.

People like you are going to be so utterly fucked when the chickens come home to roost.

long on TASR

Correct. You can sense the despair on frontline retail workers faces when you visit these stores. They are barely making ends meet. Walmart has even has food drives for their own employees.

holy fuck. i just realized we should have voted for Hillary. The coming collapse would be unavoidably blamed on her and Obama. Now it might do Trump in.

Or Keynesian economics..:building airports, roads..a wall'

To all of the younger Sup Forumslacks reading this thread and freaking out: CHILL. seriously, these guys make their doom and gloom claims literally every year. The market might crash (probably not) but even if it does it won't be the end of the world.

Same difference. Where's tall Paul when you need him?

Cfa candidate and finance goy here, ask me anything

Yes young goyim, just go "minimalist" and trade in that spacious 750 SF apartment for a new 400 SF "micro" studio!

Also - owning anything is for fools! Go ahead and lease your furniture, washer/dryer, and car.

When you say way back when you were a freshman do you mean like 5 years? Or gods I hope not 20 years? Your incredibly nieve is why I ask. You honestly just go right to the federal reserve website and gobble down whatever bullshit they would have you think lol.. Did your college education help you there? I bet it did. Even their own explanation is clearly retarded to a thinking adult. Oh goy no were not a private organization we just act and benefit exactly like one but instead of keeping all the profits I surely give it back to the US treasury Mr. Sheckle goldensteinburg. He'll see that its put to good use.

Great Depression wasn't the end of the world either. .. well close it led to WW1 which lead to WW2

But not that the end of the world.

Trump Bubble gonna burst senpai a lam, it's all speculation

How old is your BZK, senpai?

They are artificially creating a bubble to crash the west with no surivors. ((They)) lost control of the us, so it must end becuse zionists are sore losers

Perfect - more Marxist influence in higher education. A typical case of the age old “he who can, does. He who cannot, teaches.”

Yes..it's a perfect cycle, look at a long-term chart and you see that this market is build on thin ice and already highly valued.
Usually the market will skyrocket before collapsing though, there is still lots of money to be made.
And that's why Trump attacks FED to fuck around with your currency and tries to get regulations like Dodd-Frank out of the way.
Then it's big bang time.
And now you idiots even allowed him to seat GS into cabinet to tell him and his buddies when it's about time for a big short again.

No you fucking idiot, liquidate your stocks before it happens and buy low when it eventually implodes. The market will eventually recover, it always does, and then you'll have made a good penny.

That's been the plan all along.

Pay debnts

Pay attention how we will not.

Oh kraut, don't think the ensuing contagion won't poison Germany too. Deutsche Bank is far from rock-solid... Remember - we burgers are your top destination for exports ($122B).

atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/deu/

...

I hope the Russians steamroll your sjw/Muslim army friendo.

>mfw in gold miners
>political instability and potential huge economic crash will send gold skyrocketing
>usd might become gold backed again

Who said I expect germany to not be affected?
I would be stupid to assume that, market synchronization is real.
But..we may see something interesting these days..a decoupling of markets again..a eurozone going up and a wall street going down, watch close.
In the end we will all be affected, but remember Europe is already still deep into crisis territory, QE / low interest rates are here to stay for a while.

"Consumer confidence" is a farce as long as pic related stays true.

>great depression led to ww1
what

Every 8- 10 years there is a recession

Fuck off with your metal hate, nigger. Gotta appreciate your taste in side arm though

If you're young, a market crash is your time to invest heavy, and retire early on the profits later.

If you're old, and depend on interest income to live, you're fucked.

Same as any other era.

I've yet to find anyone who can predict shit when it comes to the economy. It's been all doom and gloom and "the sky is falling" for years now, yet it keeps churning along...the only thing to fear is bank failure, and they're fat and happy on free loans from the Fed right now.

central banks r treason u idiot articulatists.
the board at the fed doesnt place america first. they favor internationalists.
nationalize the fed. defend off the ww3 by shining the truth light on the viper den and relying on homegrown

This is your mind on drugs. Really shit drugs.

Watch less infowars, mouthbreather.

I disagree. My generation shall slaughter the modern elites. Butcher them down to the last child. Which means their systems like capitalism die with them.

He unintentionally comes off like a demon

I love ainsley

>all these (((reports)))
>yet safe haven assets skyrocketing
Sell the rumor
Buy the fact
Global uncertainty is rising ontop of massive debts and inflation creep, its is not a good time to go long but you could make a killing shorting

Economic crashes are like big earthquakes. They're inevitable but no one can predict the exact date. Furthermore, constructing things that arn't earthquake proof in such areas is asking for trouble. The same goes for finances. You should have a backup plan, it's foolish not to.

Agree OP, although this is NOT politics, this is economics and should probably go in the business board.

What is going against the US:
Jobs are shit, virtually stagnant wage growth with the exception of the Midwest which is doing notably better.

Debt is shit, still a bunch of debt, corporate or otherwise.

The car industry is still churning out crap products that nobody wants to buy. A busted up ford shit mobile, half made in China? 15k kiddo! Isn't this a steal of a deal? Pfffttttt

But what do we see? Stocks inflating like nuts... I hate to be doom and gloom but something smells fishy senpai.