HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN TO ME

HOW COULD THIS HAPPEN TO ME

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youtube.com/watch?v=P5UdLbHc3x0
independent.co.uk/voices/us-election-will-trump-clinton-win-electoral-college-swing-states-a7402351.html
twitter.com/Dan_Auguste/status/848792197612941313
realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
youtube.com/watch?v=XtC7K8ozVkE
jean-jaures.org/nos-productions/regionales-en-ile-de-france-vote-peripherique-contre-vote-metropolitain
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I wonder how far ahead she really is, Remember Trump's 10% chance of victory from statistics guru Nate Down Quark ?

She could have 28% and Macron 23%, it doesn't matter. 2nd round is the only thing important.

IVE MADE MY MISTAKES

I MADE MY MISTAKES

Be patient, my friend, it takes time to destroy an empire. Many conservatives are too young to vote, La Pen will win the next election.

Would she still be viable by then? Or would it be time to have fresh blood with Le Pen there as a party elder to continue to message?

Stop believing the fucking (((polls))))

Don't bother, americans never understood the 2 rounds system.
Though it's true it's a fucked up system crafted to force bipartism.

Seems pretty cucked

Macron 98% certain to win

She's only 48. Her personality is good and she already has a great connection with many conservatives.

Kek

The worst thing is our legislatives electoral system.

Eh, it makes sense because it avoids someone being elected on

Oshit
Sorry France.
It's not going to happen.

Also here's some regional polls for 2nd round against Macron:

Auvergne Rhône-Alpes: 41%
Bourgogne Franche-Comté: 44%
Bretagne: 28%
Centre-Val de Loire: 36%
Grand-Est: 44%
Hauts de France: 45%
Île de France: 32%
Normandie: 38%
Nouvelle Aquitaine: 37%
Occitanie: 44%
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: 49%
Pays de la Loire: 33%

Also it's not in the polls but she will probably get around 50% in Corsica, and she will underperform in overseas territories, except maybe in French Polynesia, cause a lot of local mayors endorse Le Pen

Try harder Macaroni shill.

True. With 3-way 2nd rounds it means plently of deputies are elected without +50% of the vote. So why having 2 rounds to begin with?

>Dude who predicted Trump win, says Le Pen will win.
youtube.com/watch?v=P5UdLbHc3x0

>I agree. Have faith fagssss

We should have proportionnal system tb.h. Like the Netherlands

Moi drug.

You should know about The Don.

Gespadin Don Fillon.

Budushii France president.

But the (((polls))) was right about the US election

>But but but trump won!
Yes, but he lost the popular vote with millions, the polls track the popular vote, not the electoral college.

>S-s-shut t-the f-f-f-fuck up shill!
I'm not shilling, just staying realistic. Pen might win the first election, but she winning the next 1v1 election is extremely unlikely.

what are these percantages?

EUROPE STRONG
suck it anti EU cretins.

ONE NOTHING WRONG WITH ME

Le Pen scores in polls by region, if she's against Macron

> the polls track the popular vote, not the electoral college
The polls track the popular vote within individual states. And the polls were markedly off in a series of individual states (particularly in the midwest).

Still now with parties like EM, we'll end up with right-left coalitions no matter how high the nationalist party is : just like in NL or Sweden.

>t. Merkel

...

illegal votes my dude, in many states all you need to vote is a drivers license, and drivers tests for said license can be taken (in some states) without needing citizenship.
Without a doubt voter fraud was involved among illegal residents.

Yes but FN would probably have 150 deputees instead of 2 (maybe 20-30 this year but it still very low)

>Many conservatives are too young to vote

You mean those young Muslim conservatives?

>the polls track the popular vote
lmao exit polls don't track popular vote concentrated in a couple of states, and neither do all those many polls that gave hillary wins in states she then lost, she was even predicted to maybe reach 300 seats in a landslide

read this nice article prior to the election and see for yourself what the polls and experts were saying
>independent.co.uk/voices/us-election-will-trump-clinton-win-electoral-college-swing-states-a7402351.html

Oh btw, you should check FILTERIS facebook page.

It's not a poll, more like a social media analysis, and their methods actually managed to predict the victory of Trump AND the Brexit.

According to them, a 2nd turn Le Pen / Fillon is more than likely.

Norway my dude, you have no idea what the FUCK you are talking about, go back to killing kids.

The polls are not reliable.

They memed a Sarkozy vs Juppé for monthes.


The 2nd turn polls are the only chance for them to give Macaroni some kind of presidential status.

More from them

Oh merde ...

alexander jones

debate and twitter op in about 8 hrs guys.

twitter.com/Dan_Auguste/status/848792197612941313

Why do island people support Le Pen?

It does something worse than that. It creates the illusion of pluripartisanship but it forces the losers to create coalitions. It's perversed bipartisanship. It's worse than in the states. We have this system here as well, it served no one no good.

No? Some polls was done within states, but most was national wide polls

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Hillary got around 2.1% more votes than trump and the polls average show that she should get 3.2% more votes. That's pretty accurate.

This really used shows that national wide polls in US elections are misleading, but in France it will be more relevant.

Sure. But 3 million or 3 thousand? I would rather say that the dems ability to trick most minorities into thinking they represent their best interests and the medias left leaning bias earned hillary way more votes than vote fraud. (I do of course support voter ID laws)

I don't care about that, not relevant, get my point please. Just look at the RCP average and it is pretty close to the result. Meaning, polls are not compromised, polls gives a good indication and completely discarding the French polls is silly. Le Pens chances are NOT good.


Not an argument t b h.
Go back to doing what the jews want you to.

>he keeps posting pre-election predictions

I fear that, after the two great steps forward of June and November last year, this year's French and German elections may well turn out to be two hard-fought steps back.
But looked at in a longer-term perspective, the "gloves-off" stage that the globalist establishment has entered since Brexit and Trump can only work in our favour.
The Dutch elections a few weeks ago - though only a skirmish, given the size of the country - were the first in which the globalists haven't erred on the side of over-confidence. I wouldn't be surprised if Rutte's edging in ahead of Wilders wasn't the first example we've seen of a seriously internationally coordinated psy-op, since Erdogan's blatant Ottoman imperialism gave the sitting Dutch government just the opportunity they needed to demonstrate a sense of national pride they don't actually have just days before the election.
Both globalism's strength and its weakness in the upcoming French elections, though, is that these presidentielles are quite blatantly just as seamless and near-invincible a psy-op. The media's creation of a Matrix-style alternative reality that glorifies Macron - practically a creatio ex nihilo - and demonizes both Right and Far Right is as flagrant and extreme as in the case of Trump in the US.
Just this flagrancy, though, is what makes the globalist psy op in this case a symptom of weakness and ultimately - even if they win and indeed especially if they win - an "own goal" in the long term. There has never been a more nakedly, unadulteratedly globalist-puppet candidate for any major political offfice anywhere than Macron, If they get him in, it'll be the last brief Aurelian age of globalism - followed immediately by the end.

remember the 2% chance he would win GOP nomination. Ah Nate Bronze you are always there for my daily kek.

Because Macron is the worst of all

Oh well looks like France will end up in civil war.

>Their President is going to be named after a cookie
Hahaha fuck France

The polls are really off in france.

there isn't mandatory voting, so it doesnt track people who won't show up on the day, polls of that show there is a significant amount of people who won't, like 40-50%.

the polls of the primaries were really off. the republicans primary had juppe winning and fillon overshot the polls by like 20-30 points.

Is Marcon really that bad?

He's the french Hillary Clinton

he couldnt be more pro-eu, pro-globalism, pro-big banks, pro-islam

youtube.com/watch?v=XtC7K8ozVkE

>He haven't program during 6 months
>He can't debate correctly
>No autority
>Shitty fanbase
>Many people vote for Macron because he is YOUNG and DYNAMIC
>He say "The Africa is the future" and "Island of Guyana"

And more defaults

He's a globalist for poor
He have no skill in politic

Yes. He really is the epitome and personication of all that is bad, if you accept, as most people on Sup Forums do, that the left / right antagonism is pretty much meaningless at this point and that everything now turns on the antagonism between national identity and globalist contempt for national identity.
Macron is so bad he doesn't even seem to have contempt or hatred for the idea of a "French national identity". He just honestly doesn't understand what such a thing might even mean. He produced a campaign video a few months ago that went on about "France" for 15 minutes and turned out not to feature a single person who was even French. He just went around the Internet sampling bits of other videos - Bernie Sanders campaign videos, Race Relations ads from Germany and the UK - and slapped them together to make his "France".
Because that is what "France" is to him: just a random hexagonal space of a few million hectares of land into which anyone can move - or be moved - in the service of maximum economic profit and in which speaking French, for example, would be discouraged as an archaic obstacle to his "Great March Forward". (The Eiffel Tower has currently been lit up with the words "Made for Sharing" - in English - by the Spanish lesbian mayor of Paris who is 100% behind Macron).

we get weaker every day and our country is a shithole, but we feel YOUNG and DYNAMIC

Because it is our PROJECT !

You can't trust (((polls))) with numbers _this_ close.

Also, French people can't afford to say in public that they vote FN, they would end up ostracized.
So the polls are rigged from the beginning.

>>Many people vote for Macron because he is YOUNG and DYNAMIC
That feel when I can't get new jobs anymore just by being "YOUNG AND DYNAMIC"

no one cares about the first round

zaboravljaš jezik diaspora scum?

...

he wears terribly

yes

Contenders for tonight debate:

-Don Fillon
-Marine Le Pepen.
-Emmanuel Macaroni.
-Benoit Jamon.
-Mel Enchon.
-Jacques "Neptune" Cheminade.
-Jean "Shepard" Lassalle.
-Natalie "Karl" Arthaud
-Philippe "Sickle" Poutou.
-Nicolas" Zippo "Aignant.
-François "Sovereign" Asselineau.

That sounds like fucking male french Hillary Clinton.

>Spanish lesbian mayor of Paris

Wait... WHAT?

Corsica was the second region who vote the most for Le Pen in 2012. FN is really weak in regional elections but it's mostly because there's local nationalist (independantist or autonomists) parties. In national elections they're usually pretty conservatives. It would not be surprising if Le Pen gets around 50% here.

In Guadeloupe and Martinique she will probably be around 10% (2nd round), she's really unpopular in those islands.

In Saint Pierre et Miquelon she will probably be around 30% in second round.

In Reunion island she's also weak but it's not impossible that she get around 20% in 2nd round. There's a lot of metropolitans here who could vote FN.

In Mayotte it depend who the local boss choose to endorse. She had a pretty good welcome when she visit the place, and if local muslims boss (cadis) choose her she could be around 30% in second round.

In New Caledonia it will depend about the local loyalist parties choice. Loyalist usually vote massively for right wing candidate, but against Macron it's not impossible that they endorse Le Pen. In that case she could get a good result. Kanak (who vote for left wing parties) would probably have very low turnout.

In French Polynesia a local party, the Tahoeraa huiraatira choose to endorse Le Pen, and if turnout among independantist is low, Le Pen could get around 40% in the islands in 2nd round.

For Wallis and Futuna nobody really care.

With the extreme biased liberal media if a conservative candidate is even, they are crushing the other opponent.
Pen is still winning.

Thank god minorities don't vote.

Because she has a socialist program, economy-wise.
And googles on our islands don't like to work. They also have a lot of criminality (duh) and she's the only one promising things about it.

"WHY AREN'T I 50 POINTS AHEAD?! You might ask"

top kek mate, have a Pénélope

Damn Cheminade, get it together

>implying everybody left of center won't form a coalition against le pen in the second round

there is literally 0 chance whatsoever of le pen winning second round, just like 2002

>there is literally 0 chance whatsoever of le pen winning second round
Why don't you bet against her, since you seem to know the future?

Her eyes are god tier.

First Lady incoming.

because gambling is immoral, you degenerate

>gambling is immoral
Thanks Mohammed.

.....Good.
We always win when we are behind by one point.

Depends who she runs against. Against Macron some of the Mélenchon and Fillon voters might vote for her. Against Mélenchon she's almost sure to win. Against Fillon... well we'll have to see.

Is it really more fucked up than an electoral college where you can get elected while losing the actual popular vote?

I mean, not that I support Hillary Clinton, but I don't really feel that Trump's victory was much of a "victory" in that sense.

yeah if its one thing we all know, its that polls are 100% accurate always forever.

Daily reminder that:

Robert Hue-Communist
Daniel Cohn Bendit- Green 68 vintage.
Bertrand Delanoë. Proud Socialist.

Are all part of The Macaroni clan.

>Texas
>Georgia
>red

Lol get real drumphf tard

Electoral college prevents some extremely populated places that do not share the life and problems of the rest of the country to blindly rule on it. If ever the interests of those in the cities (that mostly consume goods) become decoupled from those of people in the country (who produce, mostly) well... Who's allowing the country to run?

Also, some nice "study" on vote in ile de france, basically there was a linear law between FN vote and distance to Paris.

jean-jaures.org/nos-productions/regionales-en-ile-de-france-vote-peripherique-contre-vote-metropolitain

Can't stenchon the melenchon - France Insoumise will win

>Socialists have to decide between Thacherite reforms + multiculturalism and a Catholic president, or literally la femme Hitler who preserves labor status quo. Wonder who they'll pick.

Wonder what will happen.

Thing is France isn't the US, and some very populated place like PACA, Alsace or even Nord-Pas de Calais are FN strongholds.
And some rural places like Limousin or Bretagne are left wing strongholds

>Electoral college prevents some extremely populated places that do not share the life and problems of the rest of the country to blindly rule on it. If ever the interests of those in the cities (that mostly consume goods) become decoupled from those of people in the country (who produce, mostly) well... Who's allowing the country to run?
Sure, but it creates another unfairness in the sense that a Californian or Texan vote becomes less important than an Alaskan one.

>melenchon
You do know he is an actual communist, right?

True. It's probably because we have much less space than the US. In historically industry heavy regions, people used to vote communist or socialist. That was before, when communists were actually anti immigration (think Georges Marchais), and before people had to deal with the consequences of socialist policies. PACA is the same thing: population is pretty dense, so people have to live close to immigrants (or whatever you want to call papers only french).

she better win damnit

these are polls.
chill out.

>the only region that is still 90%+ white vote for Macron

Really makes you think.
They don't know how bad it can be.

You don't understand the "were being culturally fucked so time to stand up and bite the bullet" concept.

You're absolutely right. On the other side popular votes allows "voter farms", where socialists stay in power by importing voters from third world countries and giving them citizenship. Then their (many) kids, who grew up showered in gibs by socialist representatives can vote and who do they vote for? Not saying the electoral college is better than popular vote, but it's not completely retarded either.