Is silicon valley going to become the second Detroit after all the jobs get outsourced and the real estate prices drop?

Is silicon valley going to become the second Detroit after all the jobs get outsourced and the real estate prices drop?

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bumping for honest opinions

Potentially worse.

Think about what massive industry leftovers there still are in Detroit. Think about the infrastructure that was built, because of that huge industrial development.

Now think about Silicon Valley. Code and computers, constantly needing replacing. All the "productivity" in the cloud, with nothing real, and hard that can't be moved.

The point of capitalism's creative destruction is that yeah, there might be a bubble, but the net-net productivity gains, and infrastructure development that comes benefits the entire ecosystem.

All they have in Silicon Valley is office space.

It was a pretty nice area before Google and Facebook desu. Prices of homes were slightly higher than the average but only slightly.

hopefully

Oooh, that would be a desert within a month from when people leave.

Does people live there? Or where do they live? Cause those places will also experience hard times.

There are lots of places in the world that are becoming tech hotbeds

Waterloo on Ontario, Can is a fast riser with cheap office space and lots of startups

Almost all the low wage places like the supermarkets and department stores are hiring but only because people don't want those jobs because it's not even enough to pay rent for a small room. I'm not sure how normal people live there, probably five people in a two bedroom apartment.

nope... you need tons of nigeros
Silicon Valley will always be a tech hub (i'm saying it with pure disgust)
it is all IQ and demography
Race is everything! EVERYTHING!!!!

no, sillicon valley is deeply tied into millitary industiral complex as well as deep state fronts

No, it's a coastal area and densely populated, which means it will always be wealthy relative to landlocked areas without the same access to trade.

How about all the Mexicans and Indians who are majority there?
Only 10% of all companies are.

I'd love to watch niggers throw molotovs through Google headquarters

I'm gonna laugh for days if Silicon Valley collapses because the whole tech industry moved to Bangalore.

Doesn't Silicon Valley have some pretty hardcore measures to keep undesirables out?

hey OP, the entire US economy is going to crash too because its all built on money printing and overvalued dirivitives, right? People have been saying that for years and the US economy keeps soaring, Dow Jones is over 20,000 and people are talking about it hitting 50,000. Enjoy waiting for doom and gloom while everyone stays rich

So it will be a little better than Oregon then?

They have nice weather so people will still want to live there. Lots of arable soil under le Facebucks parking lots in case they want to farm instead.

I heard that a lot of the less successful programmers and companies are setting up shop in Palo Alto and Oakland. That, together with the replacement of black populations with Hispanics is currently causing a big demographic shift. More Hispanics along the west coast, more blacks moving to Arizona, and other states further east.

Yes. Funny thing is this is exactly what I told 5 years ago to a Jewgle BLM-type mulatta who was talking about buying a house there, and now it looks more likely.

You've never seen any port towns have you? Ocean + lots of people =~= wealth. Harlem is by the sea and it's still a shithole.

the whole wider area was always filled with savage niggers. Where do you think 2Pac was nigging?

I live in Mountain View and work for Google. It is highly unlikely that Silicon Valley will collapse as the world's tech hub anytime soon.

First, most tech venture capital is here. The bankers and investors who fund new companies are all in and around Palo Alto, Berkeley, and SF. If you want (or more likely, need) external funding, the Bay Area's the best place to start your company.

Next, there's a critical mass of world-class universities churning out the next generation of engineers and entrepreneurs. You've got Stanford, UC Berkeley, even UC Santa Clara and San Jose State. UC San Luis Obispo is just a couple hours' drive south, and tons of their grads find work in the Bay Area.

On top of that, the companies themselves that populate Silicon Valley are quite mature at this point, and unlikely to crash when the next bubble bursts. Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon (they have big offices here too) aren't going anywhere. Trust me, they've tried -- Amazon in particular has a big India office -- but the best people are here, and they aren't leaving.

Also, it's a smaller factor, but the weather and terrain here is simply amazing. Besides the number of jobs and tech companies, the Bay Area's simply a great place to live. You're only a couple hours' drive from sandy beaches, snowy mountains, dense forest, wine country... you name it, it's nearby.

Finally, India and Bangalore are still experiencing brain drain (to the Bay Area, largely), and this is unlikely to change anytime soon. The best people from these countries keep moving to the US and Silicon Valley for a reason - the pay here is better, it's less overpopulated, the quality of life is better, and offers better futures for their children.

Quantum computing will do to Silicon Valley what NAFTA did to D'troit

This Poland could not into work visa. My Polish co-workers are all bro-tier, 100% 'Murican. Your "US sucks, Bay Area crash" attitude is just sour grapes.

But then you had to live in Waterloo. And the tap water taste like cow diarrhea.

This too, I always forget that Lockheed has several absolutely enormous offices out here. Moffett Field in Mountain View has a huge Air Guard base next to one of them.

You been here long?

>world-class universities

wew lad

I'm not Polish I'm French, and I never had any interest in moving into your nigger country.

It's just obvious to me, as "telecommuting" develops and becomes more and more normal in IT, why would you pay people $100k+ salaries just so people can pay $3.5k rents in San Fagcisco, when you can have the same people stay at home and pay them half as much? It's like the opposite of outsourcing, with very few benefits.

So what happens when telecommuting takes off and people leave that overpriced Northern Californian shithole, what do you have left? Welfare niggers on drugs killing each other over dice games and a handful of faggots sucking each other off in parks. I just fail to see how the Silicon Valley isn't doomed.

Long enough.

While I'm posting, I'll add my view on Bay Area Sup Forums-acks. They are the worst kind of Trump supporter, in my opinion. While they profit from and contribute to globalization and neoliberalism, they LARP as a disaffected white person from middle America. They have no connection to these people's experience, other than a vague sense of "ugh, so many Indians here, I wish Sunnyvale was more white." In many cases, those Indians worked harder and are much smarter than the Sup Forums-ack, since otherwise they'd never have gotten an H1B in the first place. (There is much abuse of the H1B system, but also many driven, accomplished Indians who come here to actually make America great.) I'm white, and I wish more Indian and Chinese workers in the Bay would assimilate more, but in most cases I don't think they're cheating the system.

The tech Trump supporter is all for cuts to welfare and government agency spending, since they've the theirs and it's a refund on their tax bill. "Fuck you, got mine" is their creed, or perhaps "Make Rich America Slightly Richer Again, and Fuck Poor People." The love the Trump meme, but they are the ACTUAL FUCKING GLOBALIST ESTABLISHMENT that is destroying the economic self-sufficiency of the rest of America.

For examples of the kind of person I mean, see Palmer Luckey and the UC Berkeley College Republicans.

They're pushing for this recode.net/2017/4/4/15160924/silicon-valley-women-race-salary-companies-average-less-data-men-tech

It's like you don't read Hacker News, or pay any attention to what's happening in the American tech industry.

Telework is on the decline. It is very hard to do well, and most companies just don't want to bother. Employees like living in large tech hubs because it's easy to find a new job when the old one poofs.

Even if your fantasy scenario came true and the tech companies left, there are tons of rich people living in the Bay who would never leave. Besides Oakland, the Tenderloin, and East PA (which are all getting gentrified), the Bay Area's actually a rather decent place to life.

Much better than France, anyway. When's your next Paris policemens' strike?

Detroit still has the Redwings. Those limp wrist faggots in California will have it WAY worse

Please tell me more about the 49ers, Warriors, Giants, and San Jose Sharks.

The Raiders can get the fuck outta here.

Erp, and by Bangalore I meant Bangladesh. The first one's just another city in India.

Anyway, another reason tech isn't moving to India: every stereotype about the awful sweatshop coders in India is true.

I'm not on vacation m8, I'm a refugee, I stopped caring about the minutia of France fucking itself beyond recognition a long time ago.

I don't pay attention to IT news either, looks like maybe I'm wrong. I do work with Englishmen I've never met though and it's perfectly fine for me.

Rent being one such measure?

If telecommuting works for you, then I'm glad. Based on my own experience, I would never considering opening a remote office in China or India, but from what I've heard Eastern Europe is a different story.

Waterloo doesn't have the weather.

If you can code anywhere in the world who'd want to do that in Canada of all places?

Trump will be good for the Waterloo tech scene.

Dunno. SV is either feast or famine and it tends to swing very wildly between those two poles.

I think Detroit did that but it did it early in its lifecycle. Then things settled out and there was steady but not spectacular growth for many years, THEN the relentless decline that we've seen since Roger&Me, basically.

If SV were to follow something similar, we'd probably see a Great Depression style shakeout followed by unionization and steady growth with a peak and terminal decline around 2070.

So no, but it could become kinda boring and times will move on to something else.

m00t you are boring us

>Telework is on the decline. It is very hard to do well, and most companies just don't want to bother.
it's not hard to do well, it's the easiest fucking thing in the world. the problem with telework is that if you actually do it, middle management can't go around pretending to be uber knowledgeable awesome epic billionaires like they want to, crushing spirit and body using techniques they learned at their 9 years of university. all of those people would be cut, so they ""break"" things to do with telework and force everyone to work in hypervaluated shitholes for little to no reason.

this isn't a problem localized to silicon valley either. i have a mate who used to work at one of australia's largest companies and the exact thing i described above happened in the 90s because of telework, unions were involved more here though.

The same euphoria that led to the Great Depression and who saw that coming?

When all productive capital is being directed at non-wealth producing activities like stock speculation no wonder the DOW keeps going up.

I'm not m00t (though I've looked him up in the internal directory). It's weird when you work at the Internet.

I think we're in violent agreement. Telework is hard to do well because of the extra communication involved, especially if only part of the team is remote. Middle-managers (and engineers, let's be honest) are generally lazy and don't want to put in this work, which sucks for the remote engineer, who is now out of the loop on important decisions and changes in direction.

If telework is done well, then the extra communication done by each engineer pretty much removes the need for middle management, as you observe. Nobody besides remote engineers want to put in that extra work, unfortunately, so it's hard to get a critical mass rolling.

I think it will be bad, but cheap office space + expensive owned homes means great area for start up software. I don't think it will ever be as bad as Detroit.

The same thing that makes hardware factories hard to leave also makes them hard to come in. Meanwhile, the same thing that makes tech companies easy to disappear also makes them easy to come back.

The high home prices mean programmers making $250k that buy big won't be able to sell and leave. It almost makes them hostage to a small start up that could swing in and offer them just enough to keep making payments.

I'm a software app developer, that's my plan. If Silicon Valley fails, buy some cheap office space and hire near captive labor that's the previous best in the industry.

Globalization in overdrive will make the next crash felt in all corners like never before. I think that's how they will install the global police state, in one fell swoop.

Hey Neighbor! I live in Cupertino and work for Apple. I agree that Silicon Valley isn't going to become Detroit anytime soon.

Most people who have never been here will complain about the high cost of living. Houses are insane and traffic sucks.

But you can wear shorts practically the entire year. There are so many places to just relax around here and do things that you can't find anywhere else that are outside work. So if you and your wife move here she will NOT want to move to Austin or Virginia Beach or North Carolina or any other tech hub.

Plus you have access to really good food (and Organic which is important). Lots of Farmers Markets and places like Whole Foods, Trader Joes and other places.

Now for the business reasons this place isn't going anywhere. 43% of VC money is in Silicon Valley. Silicon Valley is where all the action is. Its the Hollywood of entertainment equivalent for engineers. In Silicon Valley, there are more problems to be solved and more money paid to fix them. Companies are more optimistic and open to new ideas than anywhere else I have been. Its easy to find partners, advisors and customers. Startups can even feed off startups when they get big VC investments. Not to say you cant do it anywhere else, but it will certainly be easier here.

So if you want to start up a company this is the only logical place to go. For example where else can you go if you need to hire dozens of engineers a month? Or require 100’s of millions in VC funding?

Plus this is where VC and other industry leaders are going to introduce you to other businesses and they are gong to be able to introduce you to financial, sales and marketing experts.

Everything is right here.

Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Apple make real things with real value. The market for the things they make only seems to keep growing.

I do agree that many startups are overvalued, but that bubble's mostly contained to private equity markets, and if it popped the Bay Area would hardly feel it. Most jobs around here are at the stable big companies, like the above + Amazon, Samsung, Microsoft, etc.

God I hope so
I pray daily for a massive earthquake to rip California apart

Yup, agreed 100%. I also see lots of big companies on your map which I forgot to mention in my earlier posts... it's crazy how often I'll be cruising down El Camino and go "oh, [household name company or app] is just down the block from me?"

>Finally, India and Bangalore are still experiencing brain drain (to the Bay Area, largely), and this is unlikely to change anytime soon. The best people from these countries keep moving to the US and Silicon Valley for a reason - the pay here is better, it's less overpopulated, the quality of life is better, and offers better futures for their children.

Not for long if Trump removes programmers from H1B eligibility.

I live in Silicon Valley and it is already slowly becoming a shit hole with the types of people that are flocking here. It'll be a Baghdad /New Dehli Shit hole.

True. I'm somewhat OK with those changes - US universities are pumping out more and more CS grads, and I wouldn't mind the dominant language at the Googleplex during dinnertime switching from Mandarin back to English.

Oh yeah! I see that stuff all the time.

Do you work at the Google building that used to be the Alza building? I worked for Alza many years ago and I remember moving to that place. It was right by the SGI buildings.

Funny story I ran into Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak many years ago at the Donut Wheel (in Cupertino on Sunnyvale-Saratoga road next to St. Joseph's Church).

I was still a kid with my mom and dad. I remember telling them I liked Apple but we had a Commodore 64 (my dad's face turned bright red).

They (and the people they were with) laughed. I said "one day I want to work for Apple" and I wonder if I were to ever run into Steve Wozniak if he would remember me.

>world class pay
>cost of living is so high it's no better than having a minimum wage job in Montana

>For example where else can you go if you need to hire dozens of engineers a month? Or require 100’s of millions in VC funding?

Yes, but you don't freeze your balls off and you have IN-N-OUT Burger to eat.

Nope, but I've walked though it. Funny how when I first got here I thought, "Look at all these buildings Google built!", but for the most part it's just regular old office buildings that they leased / inherited.

I love the Donut Wheel, used to go there all the time. One of the few truly 24/7 places to eat around here.

RIP SGI, RIP Sun Microsystems :(

Amazon is hardly a profitable company. In all it's years of operation it just recently turned a profit and then barely. And that's not expected to last.

Google is a useful company but the bulk of it's profits is from ad revenue generated by it's search engine. Just like magazines, newspapers, and television.

Same with Facebook which is an overvalued company IMO just like Amazon. Both companies are buoyed by stock speculation, not on real world earnings. I don't know how profitable Facebook really is but I'm skeptical of a comany whose only product is data mining it's customers while being wholly dependent on other means (tablets, iphones, computers) for it's existence.

The only company worth a damn on your list is Apple. At least Apple makes things people can posses and use. The other companies; Facebook, Google, Amazon; produce nothing tangible of their own. In fact, they can exist because of companies like Apple.

>Telework is on the decline
I am talking out of my ass and speculating but I guarantee you that this "decline" if it is true is pushed purely by middle management. As a faceless drone in a large corporation when I see middle management, all I see is puppets going to meetings all day trying to validate how important their jobs are. If telecommuting was a real popular thing they would be out of the job. I think like it or not, with the harsh realities of childcare and real-estate costs, and property and operations costs for businesses, telecommuting will become a big thing and not just for IT guys. All you need is a guy with balls to start a contracting firm that can help companies adapt to telecommuting and profit more do to it. Once you talk in terms of money it's game over.

fuck yeah my waterloo boiz

don't worry, things do get better

t. recent grad making +250K/year and making white babies

>a subhuman slav doesnt know the difference between northern and southern california
slav-shits, not even ONCE.

Good post.
I have thought for a while that the most likely factor that could possibly ruin the success of the tech sector in Bay area & Valley would be politicians in Sacramento. It has not happened yet...the industry seems to be a step ahead. Never underestimate how much the political class in CA despises not getting larger cut of the financial success of the tech industry.

True but only if your startup is software focused AND not targeted at the financial industry.

Two different things. NYC is King of Finance (with its twin in London). So comparing the two is like comparing a Ferrari with a Land Cruiser. Both are nice but made for different things.

We can only hope so those degenerate libfucks would get a taste of their own medicine
Let them get ahead with the diversity programs and see them drown in their own shit

>NYC
>"Silicon Alley"

Hahahahahahahahahaha

The difference in business cultures cannot be overstated. On the East Coast, you simply aren't allowed to fail as an entrepreneur. In Silicon Valley, it's expected and allowed, so people fail, learn, try again, and succeed.

Anyway, all of my earlier points hold when comparing to NYC just as well as to India.

if they were worried about it, we would notice
google doesnt give a fuck
facebook already is a diverse holding of companies
amazon will literally never fail, theres no replacement for any of these websites on the foreseeable future anyways

>you simply aren't allowed to fail as an entrepreneur
>fail
>"and that's why we need 10 more indians"
>the end

>I'm totally a lifelong Trump supporter, but I'm concerned about [insert issue] and was wondering what our thoughts are on [insert issue].

Yes, look up Arthur rock.

San Francisco was chosen specifically because the hills and building regulations keep the housing supply artificially low.

You need brilliant people in tech. You have to pay them enough to be competitive, but you also have to keep them poor so they don't retire early.

High rents and student loans make this happen. You extract more years of work out of the smartest people this way. All the government money will filter through this area to achieve this goal.

Sell your house and move then

>>NYC
>>"Silicon Alley"
NY is different. They don't make retarded apps like Blue Apron or whatever. It's more financial driven on wall street and park avenue. Different mindset different development. You make your retarded apps I will work on HFT.

Funny story about that - the Mayor of Cupertino Barry Chang tried to strong arm Steve Jobs when he was planning on building his new building.

Steve Jobs went to the Cupertino City Council and told them "You do know I don't have to build my buildings in Cupertino. I can easily move to Sunnyvale or Mountain View."

That shut them up really fast.

Then Barry Chang thought he wasn't getting enough "tax" revenue from Apple so he thought he would bully Tim Cook. So he was driven to Apple and marched in and demanded to speak to Tim Cook.

Security told him to leave as he didn't have an appointment. He was saying "do you know who I am?"

They said "yes. You need an appointment. You have to leave now."

We all had a good laugh about that. Politicians really are that dumb. Kill the goose that laid the golden egg. I just worry that Barry Chang will hold a grudge against Apple and try to destroy it just to sooth his deflated ego.

Homes will crash out here in the Centeral Valley of California. All the sand niggers will be shipped back to fuckistan

My point was these companies are overvalued and their stock price is driven by speculation.

The fact that Amazon can operate for as long as it has without turning a profit and still attract investors, turning Steve Bezos into a billionaire, tells us a lot about the state of the American economy.

The U.S economy deindustrialized and became financialized where fortunes are made not by investing in sectors of the economy where real wealth is made but by speculating on the next big tech novelty.

I'm in the east bay and the gentrification here is very strong. While SF and tech as a whole in known for extreme leftism, if you are a poor nig on the ground here, you are getting pushed the fuck out. Can't make it here without contributing to society.

Depending on how you weigh your values, this might be the best place for you.

I saw that Google was in the old Alza building. It kind of made me sad (I actually teared up a bit) because I was there when that building was made. I helped install the servers and made sure everything was running. I remember when they brought in the palm trees and how they decorated all the rooms.

Plus the kick ass cafeteria in there. An interesting thing is that Alza was going to build another huge building on the other side of the street and have a huge bridge connect the buildings. The problem was the founder died and the greedy bastards that took over sold out (originally to Abbot but that didn't go through because someone somewhere didn't bribe the democrats and they were mad at Abbott Labs). So eventually Johnson and Johnson bought Alza.

But that was well over a decade ago. Things change so fast here. I also miss the SGI and Sun. I also used to enjoy driving around and seeing all the CISCO buildings.

Here is a picture of Vallco Fashion Park from 1978. Drive by that area today and you won't recognize it.

Bay Area has the best weather and nature in the USA. Literally nothing will make it Detroit

OK how are you going to enjoy your Starbucks coffee or get any other kind of service if all the non-tech people move out because you guys drove all the rent prices over 9000$?

Who USA will become Detroit because you are capitalistic and will sell out and then you will run away like in Detroit. When was USA ever preserving? It's business, it's competition. If you don't complain about niggers and Mexicans they WILL overrun you. Don't complain just online, be racist IRL, establish organizations like KKK, but more efficient.

Same way we do already.

College students and techies girlfriends. The slants that live 9 to a single room probably aren't going anywhere either, but they don't harm much.

All those Jewish cucks, faggots and coalburners. Some day you will realize PewDiePie is the most conservative of them all.

>SHORKS

Lets get real, rent will never go that crazy. Unlike Manhattan or something there is an insane amount of land to develop on. You could comfortably fit 100 million people in the Bay Area. It's just regulations artificially keeping housing stock low.

Shekelberg, please.
You know damn right well Southern California has the best weather and geography. And it actually has manufacturing zones. Where the fuck is that in the Bay Area?

And what about the real proffecionals? What about mechanics, plumbers bus drivers, etc.? Do you really think they want to live like slaves and waste their entire life only because of their zip code being famous?

Some on Wall Street have said "Amazon is a nonprofit, funded my investors for the benefit of the consumer." As a consumer, I'm OK with this.

As an investor, I'm also OK with this since their stock price keeps going up. The stock goes up not because of their profitability (which remains near zero, on paper), but because of their galactic-scale revenue and near-flawless execution.

If Amazon wanted to become profitable, they would simply stop growing their other businesses and turn the "Margin" dial one click to the right. However, they want to keep growing, so there you area.

Oh yeah? The price of some shit two bedroom apartment in south San Jose is about 3000$. How are people supposed to afford that even if they make 25$ an hour?

Money doesn't just park in those stocks because of speculation. They basically need a place to park money that seems "safe". Value is a function of percieved risk and opportunity cost. As long as Google keeps up trying to replace more people with cheap robots, they are gonna get more money piled on them. Amazon is similar to google in that sense.

I agree that Facebook is shit in every way possible and Zuckerberg has never made any worthwhile since Facebook itself. Everything else they tried were failures or done better by someone else. But as long as people still use them to "socialize" the ad money will continue to flow and would likely eat into traditional advertising. The only real threat to Facebook is people getting bored of it and move on to something new and Facebook won't buy off like Instagram or Whatsapp

NYC is great for access to the capital markets and investment banking if your a financial firm or a already large corporation that needs to raise capital. However Silicon Valley is king of VC

Look at this guy. Talk about the new Detroit -- Samsung has failed to build a sustainable business, and is now watching China, Malaysia, and others eat their lunch. Your work-hard-at-all-costs, think-and-live-later culture will eat itself until there is nothing left.

I knew this girl in college that I stayed in touch on FB with. She is ditzy, dumb but really hot. She moved to the Bay Area, started a kick starter for a really stupid startup, got maybe 3 donations and failed, attached herself to two different start up app companies, those failed. She never had a serious job there only wishy washy shit with tech start ups but lives there and wastes money and stupid shit like Cleanly and Blue Apron every day and I have no idea how the fuck she does it unless she is just fucking guys like crazy and living with multiple boyfriends.

All the plumbers and mechanics I know are decent people making decent money. Doesn't seem like they're at risk for going anywhere?

Cool photo! I love learning Bay Area lore. Yeah, there's almost nothing left in Vallco Mall now except the movie theater.

Seriously. I live in Sunnyvale and was wondering what the hell that large building near Lowe's was. Apparently it's another Apple office space. Only thing I wish was that we had a good public transit system as the light rail, CalTrain, BART and the buses suck.

This. SoCal maybe be down now but it has a much more diversified economy and better weather

This guy gets it.