LE PEN WILL WIN GUARANTEED - I EXPLAIN HOW

Shills fuck off and listen up, this is how it is going down, screenshot this.

1st Round will result in a Le Pen/Melenchon runoff. The numbers:

Le Pen - 25%
Melenchon - 21.7%
Macron - 21.0%
Fillon - 20.2%
Hamon - 5.2%

Shut up an trust me on that. I will be right. Le Pen historically always overperforms her polls unless there is another credible right wing candidate for her votes to go to. There isn't. I have used a variety of other methods to calculate the other numbers; to be very brief, always remember that Macron's base is FRAGILE (1/3 of voters could change minds) and is attracted to Melenchon's base, where as Fillon has stalled because of Penelopegate, and there is no reason to vote for Hamon as Melenchon becomes the candidate for the Left.

2nd Round will be 51.43% for Le Pen and 48.51% for Melenchon. Polls after the first round will show roughly a 54/46 race, favouring Melenchon.

The crucial moment will come when Fillon ENDORSES Le Pen (or several prominent members of his party). Why would he/they do that, you ask? Because they support Le Pen AGAINST the commie Melenchon (he wants 100% tax on rich). ALSO, they will have a parliamentary majority, and want to get shit done. THEY CAN GET SHIT DONE WITH LE PEN, BUT NOT WITH MELENCHON. This is crucial to remember.

This will be the FINAL BLOW. Currently (((polls))) predict the abstention rates of Fillon supporters in a 2nd round Le Pen/Melenchon to be approximately 50%. (i.e. 50% do not vote at all). Fillon/his party's endorsement of Le Pen will reduce this rate to approximately 30%, which results in the 51.43% victory I described above. So, add all these factors in and Le Pen will Make France Great Again. I'm waiting, Sup Forums. Shortly, you will see that I was right.

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>Fillon ENDORSES Le Pen
kek
go back fucking your kangaroos instead of writing bullshit
>inb4 swiss FIDF

Why wouldn't it happen, jackass? Would he endorse a commie instead?

I believe the implication is that we just wouldn't endorse.

*he wouldn't

#PenMeIn

its pretty easy actually
Le Pen wins if Melenchon gets through
Le Pen loses if Macron gets through
Fillon has become a bad joke

Why not? Think closely about this. In the second round, with Melenchon and Le Pen, one of them WILL BE PRESIDENT. Whether Fillon likes it or not.

So what is he going to do? Fillon's party will have a majority in the National Assembly. A large majority. There are objectively MANY AREAS where they can work together with Le Pen. There are no areas where the Republicans can work with a Melenchon President, it would just cause utter chaos.

Think of this on behalf of the Republican side. Melenchon will be ahead in the polls, slightly, in a Le Pen/Melenchon runoff. Would they risk a Melenchon presidency and utter chaos? Would they really? It would be bad for them, bad for the party and bad for the country. They wouldn't risk it. They wouldn't endorse Le Pen per se, but you can bet they would try and stop Melenchon.

The Republicans wouldn't endorse Le Pen against Macron. But against Melenchon? They have nothing to lose, and everything to gain. If a Melenchon/Le Pen runoff happens, just you watch. It will happen.

Literally already been rigged, 500,000 outside of France people get to vote, TWICE.

Macron vs Le Pen would be a disaster. The establishment would unify against Le Pen. She would not win. There are some snowflakes on this board who refuse to recognise that. Luckily, they need not worry, because I predict Macron will not make it through. His support is simply too fragile - it reminds me of the collapse of Bayrou in 2012.

Judging by what happened in the states, he might as well endorse Macron.

Of course he would endorse Macron. But he wouldn't endorse Melenchon. He would back Le Pen over Melenchon.

See

post yfw Le Pen loses and your dreams are forever shuttered

>hurr durr why don't everything work like the anglo-saxon system ??
Fillon won't endorse Le Pen. Here is why :
>If he endorses her, he will be remembered as the guy who allied with far-right extremism forever
>If he doesn't, he can simply stay in the opposition, and preparing his shot for the next election
Basically, he won't because he wants to secure his own position

i cant wait to laugh at you little racists when little le pen(is) gets ousted out of the running

Don't put it past the frogs to vote in a slimy little communist like Melenchon. Assuming he gets into the runoff with Le Pen, which he most likely won't, the French voters will throw in their lot with the candidate who has promised to eliminate all immigration controls so that they don't have voting for a le evil nazi weighing on their conscience.

>Melenchon in the second round

Either your methods are complete shite, or France is already fucking finished regardless of the results of the election.

...

>implying if this happened the cuckservatives wouldn't endorse the commie over lepen

and if people in his party endorse her, would it be enough?

Do all frogs have such a simplistic view of politics? Schlomo, as I clarified in it won't be an endorsement as much as a plea to vote AGAINST Melenchon.

The Republicans understand that if Melenchon becomes President they are fucked electorally as well. Melenchon, if he wins, will be seen as having a "mandate" for his policies, but you can bet the Assembly Republican Majority will not go along with him for any one of his promises. Melenchon will be decimated and politics in France will be more dysfunctional than ever. Who will be blamed? Melenchon, or the Republican majority? Both; with the lion's share of the blame being heaved on the Republicans because Melenchon will use his pulpit to put it on them, and it will be perceived that Melenchon won a "mandate" for his policies in May.

Fillon will be fucked. Melenchon will be fucked. The country will be fucked. Just look at what happened with the Labour Party in the Netherlands, how they were deserted by their base by having seen as succumbing to the centre right's policies in the coalition government. So if the Republicans go along with Melenchon at all, they will be even more fucked. In light of this, you cannot rule out an encouragement by the Republicans to vote AGAINST Melenchon in round two. Not FOR le pen. That is how they will frame it.

Yes, fag. Read

UMPS

I dont know how shillitics work in Australia, but here in western (((liberal democratic))) europe any kind of "plea" to vote for a candidate like Le Pen will be anyhow blown out of proportion by the media, which is why Fillon will sit on his ass and do nothing.

>implying politicians care for the system and not for their own ass
Endorsing Le Pen is a dead end for the career of a politician

This is Frances only way to change things.

>le pen will not win
>she is zionistic
>france is lost anyway: economic and ethnic shithole

If Melenchon gets into power Fillon is fucked regardless, as I argued here. He will be fucked because his entire party will be either deserted by his base for working with Melenchon, or blamed for contributing to a dysfunctional government which literally does nothing but implement right wing policies against the will of Melenchon himself.

With Le Pen in President, the executive and the Assembly will be able to work together on many economic, security and social issues. It's unlikely Fillon would seek a comeback anyway, mate. Remember in 2001, how Sarkozy's Socialist opponent dropped out of politics after losing? Fillon will likely do the same after losing this election. And then he will have only his party to account for.

And for his party, its undeniable that a President Le Pen is in its interest (and the country's political interest)

Not an argument, defeatist scum.

1- Le Pen is doing a terrible campaign.
2 - She lost 4-5 % the last 10 days in the polls
3 - pic related

fuck me, I meant Chirac, not Sarkozy.

Read my argument. I have conceded that at the time of the second round her numbers will be 54/46, losing to Melenchon. The decrease of Fillon abstention rates as a result of the party's tepid endorsement of her, framed as an action to vote against the commie, will push her over the line.

>HEY CAN GET SHIT DONE WITH LE PEN, BUT NOT WITH MELENCHON.

What you don't understand is that the program of Melenchon is nothing short of a revolution.


It's designed to wipe everything.

youtube.com/watch?v=aFcWfkGECDU

Le Pen will never win for a single reason: cucks will mobilize in the second ballot against her. Like in 2002 with his father (pic related).

>Fillon
>Losing election
Top Kek

You don't know the figures. We have now second turn polls on Mélenchon winning 68-32 on Le Pen, the biggest margin of all.

Le Pen can win against Fillon -which is a sociopath, or Macron which has the cult of personality more than a communist, but not against Mélenchon.

Pple here are so upset they are ready to wipe them all. If Mélenchon make it to the second turn, he'll be president.

Pic related on Le Pen being nervous: they've ordred polls on their favorite subjects

here to understand the presidential election

>oh yes, my lord, jews have not enough power.
>i like usrael so mucho
>go surf, faggot

this is stupid, Melenchon is clearly against immigration.

He declared:

"detached workers will have to go back home"
"I am against the right of installation"
"There is no better place for people than their own country"

>economic
IIRC, Le Pen's economic views are somewhat socialist.

question to french: is Melenchon trustworthy enough to do what he promises right now? Is he a jew who will flip the moment that he is elected or does he have honor?

Furthermore, let me tell you the germanz fear LePen. From the german perspective we think we can manage to control any of your cuck candidates when they're president, well except LePen. She represents the proud and free frenchman and my people hate and fear that.

>Fillon stop immigration
Topkek

>the program of Melenchon is nothing short of a revolution.
>It's designed to wipe everything.
EXCEPT HIS SUPPORTERS SHITHOLES

BBBRRRRRAAAAAPPPP
PPPPRRRFFFFFFTTTTT

NOW GO GET A SHOWER MELANSHILL

M E L A N S H I L L

>La culture française a des racines (((judéo)))-chrétiennes
REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Is Mélenchon Trustworthy ? I can't answer however he's got a pretty decent background

Is he jew ? No, and jews really hates him.

he's a Freemason, but inactive since years


The perception of Le Pen is completely phony, especially outside France. It's just controlled opposition.

That's a shallow analysis, dig deeper and you will realise you are wrong. Let's take a look at current (((polling))), for whatever it's worth. The most recent poll has Le Pen at 43%, and Melenchon at 57%.

First, its important to note that this gap is declining daily (look at polling aggregates) as voters increasingly become aware of Melenchon's communist platform and its dangers. So, where is Le Pen falling short?

Surprisingly, the answer is the turnout of right wing voters. At most, according to polls, 10% of conservative voters will vote for the commie against Le Pen. 10%. Most, and we can basically assume almost all, will either not vote, or vote for Le Pen to block the commie. So how many are not voting (abstaining)?

Polls suggest that number to be roughly 50% at the moment, where as Macron's abstention rate can be as low as 30%, and most of his supporters are not excited to vote for Melenchon against Le Pen, but they are holding their noses anyway.

My argument is simple. Fillon, or some part of his party will endorse a vote against Melenchon because of this . All Le Pen needs to do to win is reduce that abstention rate in the right wing, and will a Republican tepid endorsement, it is ABSOLUTELY possible. One aspect of Fillon voters is how intensely loyal polls show them to be - they will literally do whatever Fillon says. An endorsement against Melenchon WILL reduce the abstention rate. And my calcuations say they only need to reduce the abstention rate by 15% amongst right wing voters for Le Pen to win.

I think its not only achievable - I think it is likely.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
>"THERE IS NO FUTURE FOR FRANCE WITHOUT NORTH AFRICAN PEOPLE"
SIGNED MELANCHON

Sup Forums IS NOT YOUR HOME MELANSHILL

Wow, I hope this is true. The globalists could use another drubbing.

She's a mix. Saying she is a socialist is a meme. She also supports certain right wing economic policies, but yes, like trump, some aspects of her agenda are left wing.

He's probably the most trustworthy of the bunch, the question is if you like what he's planning.

Urrr Durrr using a pick of based Sikh warrior and making it pass for muslim. Ignorant.

I agree ith you, if she goes against Macron, it will be a blowout 30%-70% for him.

She is polled at near 30% in the first round. A lot of Fillon votes will go to her in the 2nd round if she's against Melanchon.

>is Melenchon trustworthy
he's an hologram mate

>there isn't
And who is Fillon

it's actually a metaphor for transparency is government.

Nope Mélenchon wants open borders (he said it in the first debate) and wants to keep schengen (that's in his program).
Sorry, he's pro migrant.

>The most recent poll has Le Pen at 43%, and Melenchon at 57%.

this guy

>JUDEO chrétienne
Quand est ce que ce même va s'arrêter
La France a des racines HELLENO CHRETIENNE

Helleno pour la politique et chrétienne pour la religion.

Judeo chrétienne ça ne veut rien dire, c'est contradictoire. Je sais pas qui est le fdp qui a inventé cette expression.

Mate, a simple visit to Wikipedia would sort you out. Look at the latest polls, I'll help you out. Notice how the latest three all have 57/43 or 58/42? Yeah, that is what I am referring to, not the bullshit lies you are talking about.

Whoever edits the French page is a dyslexic. Keep up to date mate, take a look at the latest Ipsos.

I want to believe StrayaBro but even on poll the people are divided and many dont want to vote for Le Pen...

>Mélenchon winning 68-32 on Le Pen
AHHAHAAHAHHAAHAHAH

FILLON SUPPORTERS ARE GOING TO VOTE MELANCHON, SURE
THEY ARE GOING TO ABSTAIN TO LET HIM WIN SURE

DUPONT AIGNANT VOTERS WILL VOTE MELANCHON SURE

EVEN HALF OF MACRON'S VOTING BASE WOULD NOT VOTE MELANCHON

LEPEN 25 FIRST TURN +3 FROM AIGNANT = 28 + AT LEAST 20 FROM FILLON = 48 + SMALL CANDIDATES + EVEN SOME ALLEGED SOCIAL PATRIOTS FROM YOUR SIDE + THOSE FROM MACRON NOT WANTING A COMMIE = AT LEAST 53 IN CASE OF A LEPEN MELANCHON.

NO ONE FROM THE FN WILL VOTE MELANCHON. AROUND A QUARTER OF MELANCHON VOTERS WOULD VOTE MARINE IF SHE FACES FILLON IN WHICH CASE YOU WOULD VOTE FILLON TOO.

STOP LARPING.

I HOPE FOR A MELANCHON LEPEN

LEPEN IS ALWAYS UNDERRATED

MELANCHON IS ALWAYS OVERRATED.

LAST TIME HE WAS SUPPOSED TO DO 17, HE DID 12 TOPKEK

>celtiques
>romaines
>grecques
>chrétiennes
>germaniques
La France a beaucoup de racines, mais (((judéo))) est un putain de même

>pick 1 poll over 12 with the smallest difference
>See, I'm right ....

FOR FRANCE!
AND FOR EUROPE!

I think the UK election will help Le Pen too, with the constant Brexit talks.

>like trump
Not to be rude but in what ways? To me, it seems like Trump is so right wing that he has become Neocon.

Considering that he shilled for the Yes vote on the Maastricht treaty (creation of the EU as we know it) and he is now campaigning with "fuck the EU"

Considering that he is a freemason but he is campaigning on a "strong independant france" will being part of the freemason (Grand Orient noneless)

Considering he called for a Hollande vote in 2012 and he is now shitting all over him.

He change is mind every 5 years.

THERE, this user gets it.
DO NOT LET MELANSHILLS LARP.
USE FILTERIS POLLS.
FILTERIS WERE THE ONLY ONES TO PREDICT TRUMP AND BREXIT.

Nice.

Calm the fuck down mate, just ignore the shills.
See The latest polls are 57/43 anyway, and as I predict this will narrow to 54/46 after the first round. After LR endorsement against Le Pen, it will narrow to unpredictable. (tie/melenchon lead/le pen lead, but analysis reveals le pen would be heavily favoured in this scenario)

Ça.
Je suis même pas "anti-juifs" mais la France n'a juste pas de racines juives, le plus proche de racine juives qu'elle ait c'est les chrétiens qui ne furent longtemps qu'une secte des juifs le prosélytisme en plus. Mais même la chrétienté est un mélange du Paganisme et de la chrétienté importée.

You'll see Le Pen will underperform. She'll be under 20% - because FN never did better for French presidential election.


They did well for fake elections for nothing such as regionale, where no one is capable to say who was elected and for what, but presidential election we know what it is: something too serious to be given away to FN bozos

Are you functionally retarded? Instead of one, how about you try three, all showing what I said, which happen to all be the most recent polls? Have your head examined autist.

Regarde les dates gros malin. Les chiffres qu'il donne sont ceux les plus récents.
Tu ne sais pas lire abruti ?

we /macron/ desu

3/12 = 25%

is it the majority of the polls ????

His proposals on trade, especially NAFTA and his promise on the campaign trail to impose tariffs is a left wing protectionist economic policy. Whether he does it or not is another matter.

>there is a motherfucking communist Melanchon shill on Sup Forums of all places

Press S to spit on France's grave.

...

It's a majority of the most recent polls and those conducted in the past week. If you are that autistic as to trust polls from more than a week ago, as I said, have your head examined.

CE SONT LES PLUS RECENTS PUTAIN DE MONGOLIEN.
Apprends à lire.

FIRST TRUMP

SECOND LE PEN

THIRD LISÉE


YOURE GOING DOWN MOTHER FUCKERS

You don't understand. The French don't care about the policies of Melanchon, the only thing they care is not to seeing the FN at the Élysée.

And believe me, that's the real problem in France. Look "les élections régionales", Tthey formed a coalition against the National Front and the FN did not even have a single region.

I never said that they were Muslims, trou du cul. Fillon is from the deep state, and the deep state wants more immigration.

Very important election for the French, if they don't stop immigration now the French population will be too small to win another election against the muslims and negros.

FIRST TRUMP

SECOND LE PEN

THIRD LISÉE


YOURE GOING DOWN MOTHER FUCKERSSSSSSSSSSS

GOD SPEED

If they do not care about the policies of Melenchon why do polls show that so many more Fillon voters vote for Le Pen against Melenchon than they would against, say, Macron?

Right wing voters absolutely do care if Le Pen's opponent is a communist. Polls prove my point, significantly. All Le Pen needs is for more of them to turn out. And this can be accomplished, especially if the Republicans endorse a vote against Melenchon, realising it is best for their party to do so.

Every day I grow more confident of a Le Pen endsieg :)

no caps lock please, it makes you look retarted as well as all the MLP voters (including me)


at least it seems everybody want a 2nd tour Mélenchon - Le Pen, i hope too, it would be great

Most recent being 42-58, Le Pen is in a decreasing dynamic, it is hard to understand ?

When is the baguette election anyway bros? Is mummy La Pen going to win? :DDDD

Just drawing random fucking trend lines is not an argument cunt

Le Pen will win the first round and get BTFO in the 2nd round

Read the OP shit.

This Sunday is the first round. The second round is two weeks later

Already have done, ya petrol huffing cunt!
It doesn't mention the date of the electron though...Also I don't use ANY search engine, so jewgle is out for me.
When will mummy Le Pen win, Aussiebro? Plz respond

Fair enough.

Thanks m8, I'm going to meme extra hard for Le Pen over this week. Ill carry some French dice to roll on my work breaks too.

the polls are always wrong and underestimating Le Pen

i wish for a Le Pen - Mélenchon 2nd round, the old voters will have a hard choice since they mostly vote for Macron and Fillon
Mélenchon will scare them away easily