Continued from: Shills fuck off and listen up, this is how it is going down, screenshot this.
1st Round will result in a Le Pen/Melenchon runoff. The numbers:
Le Pen - 25% Melenchon - 21.7% Macron - 21.0% Fillon - 20.2% Hamon - 5.2%
Shut up an trust me on that. I will be right. Le Pen historically always overperforms her polls unless there is another credible right wing candidate for her votes to go to. There isn't. I have used a variety of other methods to calculate the other numbers; to be very brief, always remember that Macron's base is FRAGILE (1/3 of voters could change minds) and is attracted to Melenchon's base, where as Fillon has stalled because of Penelopegate, and there is no reason to vote for Hamon as Melenchon becomes the candidate for the Left.
2nd Round will be 51.43% for Le Pen and 48.51% for Melenchon. Polls after the first round will show roughly a 54/46 race, favouring Melenchon.
The crucial moment will come when Fillon ENDORSES Le Pen (or several prominent members of his party). Why would he/they do that, you ask? Because they support Le Pen AGAINST the commie Melenchon (he wants 100% tax on rich). ALSO, they will have a parliamentary majority, and want to get shit done. THEY CAN GET SHIT DONE WITH LE PEN, BUT NOT WITH MELENCHON. This is crucial to remember.
This will be the FINAL BLOW. Currently (((polls))) predict the abstention rates of Fillon supporters in a 2nd round Le Pen/Melenchon to be approximately 50%. (i.e. 50% do not vote at all). Fillon/his party's endorsement of Le Pen will reduce this rate to approximately 30%, which results in the 51.43% victory I described above. So, add all these factors in and Le Pen will Make France Great Again. I'm waiting, Sup Forums. Shortly, you will see that I was right.
Asher Evans
First for Taleb
Jordan Campbell
She will win, as in the OP. But only if she is against Melenchon.
Michael Robinson
Hey guys Fatima here, AMA!
John Ortiz
>when Fillon ENDORSES Le Pen he may be a fucking socdem, fion won't endorse a commie like La Pine, who stands on the very same economics ground as Merdenchion also >Merdenchion on the second round nah
Leo Morales
Will Le Pen win, Fatima?
Benjamin Gomez
>Fillon endorses Le Pen >Any living being from the french political sphere endorsing Le Pen
Maybe it's time to stop smoking tumbleweed, Aussie
Isaac Nelson
Nice OP
I predicted Melenchon and let pen in finals too
Brody Peterson
Le Pen is an awful monster who wants to make sure that evil assad wins.
Syria needs NATO, big EU army and America to come help!
LOL - Lots of Love from Fatima!
Thomas Davis
Why not? Think closely about this. In the second round, with Melenchon and Le Pen, one of them WILL BE PRESIDENT. Whether Fillon likes it or not.
So what is he going to do? Fillon's party will have a majority in the National Assembly. A large majority. There are objectively MANY AREAS where they can work together with Le Pen. There are no areas where the Republicans can work with a Melenchon President, it would just cause utter chaos.
Think of this on behalf of the Republican side. Melenchon will be ahead in the polls, slightly, in a Le Pen/Melenchon runoff. Would they risk a Melenchon presidency and utter chaos? Would they really? It would be bad for them, bad for the party and bad for the country. They wouldn't risk it. They wouldn't endorse Le Pen per se, but you can bet they would try and stop Melenchon.
The Republicans wouldn't endorse Le Pen against Macron. But against Melenchon? They have nothing to lose, and everything to gain. If a Melenchon/Le Pen runoff happens, just you watch. It will happen.
Jayden Powell
>So what is he going to do? prepare for the MP elections that comes just after La Pine wouldn't have a majority to govern Merdenchion wouldn't either, which is why he wants a new constitution (which would change jack shit as to that)
Luis Rodriguez
Look, you seem to have given this a lot of thought. But as someone who actually lives there, let me tell you that hell will freeze over twice before any of the candidates rally to Le Pen in some way or another.
Connor Richardson
The Republicans understand that if Melenchon becomes President they are fucked electorally as well. Melenchon, if he wins, will be seen as having a "mandate" for his policies, but you can bet the Assembly Republican Majority will not go along with him for any one of his promises. Melenchon will be decimated and politics in France will be more dysfunctional than ever. Who will be blamed? Melenchon, or the Republican majority? Both; with the lion's share of the blame being heaved on the Republicans because Melenchon will use his pulpit to put it on them, and it will be perceived that Melenchon won a "mandate" for his policies in May.
Fillon will be fucked. Melenchon will be fucked. The country will be fucked. Just look at what happened with the Labour Party in the Netherlands, how they were deserted by their base by having seen as succumbing to the centre right's policies in the coalition government. So if the Republicans go along with Melenchon at all, they will be even more fucked. In light of this, you cannot rule out an encouragement by the Republicans to vote AGAINST Melenchon in round two. Not FOR le pen. That is how they will frame it.
Jayden Allen
not how it works in France we can have a commie president, with a capitalist government and parliament
and in that case, the president doesn't do shit, and it's the capitalist government that's ruling
Merdenchion (same as La Pine) wants an assembly proportional to the national vote (as of now, you can represent just 20% of the voters, and have a largely absolute majority in parliament) if they managed to change the constitution for that to happen, granted, errything would be blocked
but cuckservatives with ~20% wouldn't then be blamed near as much as this tard system (which we had with the 4th republic, and which was such a failure it became a joke)
Henry Morris
Did we allready give up on germany? Snitzel guy gonna win?
Jordan Flores
And that would result in complete chaos. Cohabitation with a communist/capitalist dichotomy would be the most dysfunctional government France has had yet.
Andrew Ross
>The crucial moment will come when Fillon ENDORSES Le Pen topkek
>support Le Pen AGAINST the commie Melenchon Half of the supporters of Melenchon are minors and minors can't vote. 2nd round will be Le Pen against Fillon.
>The Republicans understand that if Melenchon becomes President they are fucked electorally as well. Approving Le Pen in France is committing a political suicide.
>you can bet the Assembly Republican Majority will not go along with him for any one of his promises Majorities going to change after this election in June.
Nolan Baker
Dear Aussie, Fillon will never endorses Le Pen he's part of the "swamp" and has too much to lose and too little to win plus, the FN hate him
forget it, no endorsement from the politicians but surely Le Pen will get a lot of their voters
Adrian Robinson
Fuck off shill. You're clearly trying to convince us that she will win so we will slack off on our efforts.
Jonathan Morgan
we already had such a situation, quite often actually
as long as it's the current system with skewed parliament representation warranting a majority, things take their usual course (which is shit in a semi-commie country, granted)
else, not one particulard side will be blamed it's the representative system that will be blamed
been there, done that, rly look up France 4th republic also look up cohabitation under Miterrand and Chirac, during the current 5th republic
Justin Sullivan
What happened to Macron? Did he finally lose momentum or something? Did the entire charade of "He's a maverick!" by the ((Media)) finally die down?
Benjamin Phillips
>Did he finally lose momentum or something? yeah people end up realizing only stinky wind comes out of his mouth
Henry Ward
>that post déjà vu It's pasta from your previous thread. How many of those threads are you at? Seeing this thread, and comparing it to the previous, it seems you get btfo every thread. Why do you keep going? Is it subliminal to make us forget fillon is a cuck?
Jose Brooks
>the MP is elected confirmed larper, seeing you don't want le pen but spit on melenchin, I bet you're an UPR zealot. Or just a jew that really doesn't want le pen.
Ian Miller
>everything would be blocked That meme again.
Sebastian Peterson
oh look a micron penis voter. how is life among islamic terrorists being "good guys" you fucking bufoon ? Still thinking you're gonna be a millionnaire under micron who destroyed the french economy even more ? think you will renew France political life with EVERY OLD FAGGOT supporting your mockery of a candidate ?
Fillon is not proprietary of its voting base. They would have voted Juppé or sarkozy if they were the chosen candidate. Those who are interested about europe don't care about the political union but about the value of their money on their bank accounts so they can buy the latest BMW car. These will vote Macron with the delusion they can preserve their wealth. Those who are interrested about France care about safety, immigration, economy, taxes... Actual topics. These will vote Lepen with the conviction they're going to take their country back.
Christopher Lewis
Macron sucks dick he has no interesting shit to say
far right and far left are the new hotness
Liam Gonzalez
Sorry boys, but LE PEN(IS) is a cunt. Melenchon will win this.
Nathaniel Foster
Member of Parliament, you double nigger you're prbly thinking about Prime Minister, which would be PM
>implying it wouldn't be it would take LR+FN alliance which won't happen soon
>reads I consider Fion a socdem >believes I'd be voting for the necrophile gigolo I also consider the toyboy a socdem, albeit leaning left even more, btw
Logan Kelly
>implying the FN won't have the majority
Brody Bailey
>Voting in a woman It went to well Germany, didn't it?
She's actualy worse, because she's literally being fucked by jews
Jayden Perry
yep, commies like you are dumb enough to believe such crap
Colton Green
Merkel literally is a jew, and a bolshevik to boot.
Levi Peterson
would have made sense if lepen wasn't leaning on the left economically. they know melenchon is a larper, noboby changes in France, only time things change is when we BTFO others or get BTFO by others.
Tyler Carter
yeah, no. It happened in the past.
Jordan Murphy
>every woman is the same! >every government is the same! >every culture is the same! Back to school with you kiddo, come back when you are old enough to vote and actually did it.
Jayden Ramirez
Kek wills it. Praise him.
Parker Miller
Women are the same. Fuck off faggot.
Jason Baker
and your mom is literally being fucked by my dick.
Easton Ortiz
MELANSHILLS GET OUT your candidate is pro white genocide pro antiwhite terrorism pro islamization pro kike israel a free mason christianophobic an authoritarian shithead with air in the skull you are 16 years old your memes suck your infiltration techniques suck the very fabric of the universe is against your beliefs
get out leaning on the left is not the problem. the problem is taxes. every liberal shithead praises China and their lack of regulations and cheap labor. Last time I checked China is ruled by a communist party with zero opposition and the worst social services ever. Chinese public hospital is a complete nightmare for example.
No, as Lepen said, the difference is between patriots and globalists. Being left or right wing economically doesn't matter.
Christian Hughes
>Phi Phi comme fils de pute !
Ryan Moore
Get off the internet, your husband is waiting for you.
Owen Myers
>Being left or right wing economically doesn't matter yeah, right... easy to say, when you're a leeching commie roach
Cooper Cox
Even Melenchon winning is good because that means civil war on the horizon and finally gas the kikes race war now will be a reality.
Jacob Diaz
Kek. Brazil btfo
Praise our lord and saviour
Jack Hughes
the only thing that can save france is a military coup. The military will act only if melenchon is elected desu
Luis Edwards
Results when?
Ryan Smith
I think you should seek help from a doctor and a mathematician Killing yourself would be simpler and less costly
Angel Ortiz
sunday 8 pm
Adam Scott
Mercî beacòup, monsîéur.
Matthew Williams
>Mercî beacòup, monsîéur.
Dominic Jenkins
>would be the most dysfunctional government France has had yet.
You can't go more dysfunctional than Hollande.
Landon Brown
you're a fucking dumbass. you really believe a left wing policy with low taxes and a vast spectrum of opportunities for a free market is worse than a right wing policy with high taxes and a fully openeed spectrum for anything resulting in no services at all ?
Congratulations for being a 16 years old libertarian my dude.
If you believe a social security, national companies securing basic services, and the state having a word to say on important matters in being a leeching commie roach, then I guess the USA are a communist country.
Gavin Perry
Qú'êst-cê qí'îl y â?
Carter Smith
sieg heil, führer
Liam Nguyen
...
Gabriel Thompson
Le Pen will loose against ANY candidate, including a chair, a table, a ficus and even a commie-backed far left
Need anything else ?
Grayson Allen
>"comment voulez-vous France ? " >"just fuck my shit up, ami ! "
Christopher Cooper
Media is saying she is struggling in polls. But I've heard that before! So make france great again!
Aiden Gonzalez
Remember to check your blood pressure at least once in a day guys, it sounds bad. And remember, Le Penis will loose badly, like she always does. Stay mad.
Jackson Cook
screencapped your post I wish you were right but I have 0 faith in your scenario actually unfolding See you next week.
Jason Rogers
You guys are dreaming. It's france, the muslim capital of europe!
James Turner
>loose
it's spelled lose, loose is a different word!
Jackson Johnson
I'll wait and see the Austrian and Dutch shit kinda took the wind out my sails. Not to mention how Donald 'the beautiful babies' Trump seems to have turned.
Justin James
no, the muslim capital of europe is your mom's cunt.
Logan Green
No misspell in this case, regarding Le Pen, I think it's actually LOOSE, you know. Like every right-tard when it's time to bend and take it in the ass.
Thomas Green
Maybe she would have chance in the fall, after this year's terrorists attacks in the summer.
Easton Sanders
We're never getting our white, fashy ethno-state through voting anyway. At this point it's just hoping that the liberals and kikes don't ruin our countries any further.
Dominic Reed
She will win the elections KEKS will it...
Hudson Miller
Ok cool but check these numbers haha Le Pen will win
Kayden Hall
Praise KEK MARINE FUTURE PRESIDENT
Luis Howard
He's right though. I'd rather not have a woman. I follow le pen because of her party, not her; because I have no other choice.
Jonathan Martin
We need Le Pen spam We need Le Pen meme War
Kevin Adams
Marine vas gagner. C'est un fait.
The FN is ALWAYS underperforming in the polls. Partly because of media biais when selecting pollees (underestimating certain demographics, or the amount of misery in France at the moment), partly because voting FN is still somewhat of a taboo (i.e. A lot of people will vote for her but never admit it), and partly because this complete fuckery of an election cycle has made people actually believe turning the page of the 5th republic is possible.
Le Pen will come out first in the first round Sunday. I'm still undecided about who she will face, but here are my estimates:
Against Melenchon: roughly 15% chance of happening, and if it does, Le Pen has 98% chance of winning the second round. Merluche is overrepresented, surfing on an inexistant dynamic. A lot of people declare voting for him to show extremism and being fed up by the system, but in secret will vote Le Pen.
Against Fillon: roughly 25% chance of happening. This is tricky. I sense a LOT of abstention, but Fillon might pull back in some FN votes that get cold feet. (I.e. "Ok he's right wing enough"). I sense Le Pen would win a second round, but barely. 60-40.
Against Macron: roughly 60% chance of happening. I fee Macron is a huge bubble that will pop open like an infected zit on election day, but he will still weasle through to the second round, barely. He is the most dangerous opponent, as his wishy washy stance gave him a fragile base, but also few enemies. He is the perfect goy picture boy for the Front Republicain anti FN alliance. This will be hard. I sense a tiny Le Pen victory, by only 1-3 percentage points.
>>t. In the know.
Jayden Carter
Pray Kek for LE PEN
Grayson Murphy
En Français j'en fait des pires aussi.
Carter Reed
>surfing on an inexistant dynamic.
Nicholas Smith
Le Pen Will Win The Elections
Michael Flores
remember to check for jamel and mamadou's dicks in your boipussy melanshill.
you're not going to win this either.
Seriously bitch why do you believe melanshit wants to give you 16 years old dicksuckers the right to vote ? because he know his base is entirely composed of young turds like you. in 5 years you will vote for an antifrench fucker like micronpenis and it will be over.
20% in your wetdreams.
topcuck because you leftard do not take it in the ass. JEJ muslims fuck you everyday and you're willing to get fucked for them, see the fake theo affair. the medef is the best friend of your syndicate mafia the CGT. you accept those who come here to take your jobs then bitch about not having jobs. you are the worst cukolds ever.
Benjamin Morris
Wont happen, if she wins she will take france out of the eu and their hundred year plan of killing whitey will be potentially fucked
Owen Miller
Marine Le Pen will win
Oliver Rodriguez
Melenchón would win in a second round agaisnt MLP.
Camden Hall
auf wiedershen
Easton Wilson
Oh come on, don't attempt to refute my argument with shitty polls.
He's surfing on a dynamic portrayed by the media to encourage fed up voters to turn left instead of right, to prevent Le Pen form winning.
Thos polls are not reliable AT ALL and not representative of the actual score of Merluche.
As I stated, many people who declare themselves for him in the poll will actually vote FN. They just will not admit it, and Melenchon is a more socially acceptable way of saying "fuck this system i want something new".
But in the serenity and secrecy of the voting booth.... they will all put Marine in the enveloppe.
Nathaniel Watson
Le moment où Hamon a commencé a glissé vers le bas, Meléchon a commencé a monter, j'imagine que les gauchiasses ont décidé de le supporter lui à la place?
William Kelly
Praise Kek.
Luke Hernandez
Le Pen is Bayern of politics.
Nolan Sullivan
>Wont happen, if she wins she will take france out of the eu
AFAIK, no. She toned down a lot on this.
At first, said she'll wait the German elections
then said she'll wait for the German AND Italian elections
then wait for the German, Italian elections, and start NEGOCIATION
kek !
Ryder Scott
>hillary will win in a 90% landslide.
Gabriel Smith
Inb4 they do what that other country did last year and all the candidates quit except the one who can beat her even though they were higher
Kayden Jones
You do realize that you will be in the 1st boat if Le Pen win ?
Nathan Hughes
She wants to negociate on 4 points:
- supremacy of french laws over european directives
- national control of borders and migration
- economic independance of france from brussellian meddling
- opting out of the common policies, notably the agricultural platform.
If the EU balks at allowing these freedoms, she will call for a referendum on Frexit.
She knows the cowardly EU is scared shitless as Frexit will cause the end of the EU, so they will accomodate.
Andrew Russell
was not saying Hillary is going to win, but the dynamic of Le Pen is not good;
She lost 5 points the last month.
Nathan Harris
Je suis Francais, cretin. Je me suis expatrie en attendant que la France redevienne glorieuse.
Ryder Gutierrez
She probably taught her niece the wonders of the BBC. Those french girls just can't resist a bulging black knob to devour
Matthew Wood
Marine Le Pen will win praise KEK
Mason Harris
exact
Jack Gonzalez
How new can you be? Of course she's losing points in (((polls))). The same reason melenchon gains has dynamic, the same reason macron was at 25% day 1. It's all a fabrication.
Le pen is no more losing points than melenchon is gaining or macron ever had. Learn to politics.
Justin Bell
>negociate
>mean do nothing but margin changes
Nicholas Phillips
Topkek, you know that Le Penis fail is imminent when her biggest supporters are from Portugal and Ghana.
Sounds like your hemorrhoids are swelling again Robert, could it be that you are anticipating it again? Remember 2012, 2007, 2002... You will never top more than 5%.