LE PEN WILL WIN GUARANTEED (2)

Continued from: Shills fuck off and listen up, this is how it is going down, screenshot this.

1st Round will result in a Le Pen/Melenchon runoff. The numbers:

Le Pen - 25%
Melenchon - 21.7%
Macron - 21.0%
Fillon - 20.2%
Hamon - 5.2%

Shut up an trust me on that. I will be right. Le Pen historically always overperforms her polls unless there is another credible right wing candidate for her votes to go to. There isn't. I have used a variety of other methods to calculate the other numbers; to be very brief, always remember that Macron's base is FRAGILE (1/3 of voters could change minds) and is attracted to Melenchon's base, where as Fillon has stalled because of Penelopegate, and there is no reason to vote for Hamon as Melenchon becomes the candidate for the Left.

2nd Round will be 51.43% for Le Pen and 48.51% for Melenchon. Polls after the first round will show roughly a 54/46 race, favouring Melenchon.

The crucial moment will come when Fillon ENDORSES Le Pen (or several prominent members of his party). Why would he/they do that, you ask? Because they support Le Pen AGAINST the commie Melenchon (he wants 100% tax on rich). ALSO, they will have a parliamentary majority, and want to get shit done. THEY CAN GET SHIT DONE WITH LE PEN, BUT NOT WITH MELENCHON. This is crucial to remember.

This will be the FINAL BLOW. Currently (((polls))) predict the abstention rates of Fillon supporters in a 2nd round Le Pen/Melenchon to be approximately 50%. (i.e. 50% do not vote at all). Fillon/his party's endorsement of Le Pen will reduce this rate to approximately 30%, which results in the 51.43% victory I described above. So, add all these factors in and Le Pen will Make France Great Again. I'm waiting, Sup Forums. Shortly, you will see that I was right.

First for Taleb

She will win, as in the OP. But only if she is against Melenchon.

Hey guys Fatima here, AMA!

>when Fillon ENDORSES Le Pen
he may be a fucking socdem, fion won't endorse a commie like La Pine, who stands on the very same economics ground as Merdenchion
also
>Merdenchion on the second round
nah

Will Le Pen win, Fatima?

>Fillon endorses Le Pen
>Any living being from the french political sphere endorsing Le Pen

Maybe it's time to stop smoking tumbleweed, Aussie

Nice OP

I predicted Melenchon and let pen in finals too

Le Pen is an awful monster who wants to make sure that evil assad wins.

Syria needs NATO, big EU army and America to come help!

LOL - Lots of Love from Fatima!

Why not? Think closely about this. In the second round, with Melenchon and Le Pen, one of them WILL BE PRESIDENT. Whether Fillon likes it or not.

So what is he going to do? Fillon's party will have a majority in the National Assembly. A large majority. There are objectively MANY AREAS where they can work together with Le Pen. There are no areas where the Republicans can work with a Melenchon President, it would just cause utter chaos.

Think of this on behalf of the Republican side. Melenchon will be ahead in the polls, slightly, in a Le Pen/Melenchon runoff. Would they risk a Melenchon presidency and utter chaos? Would they really? It would be bad for them, bad for the party and bad for the country. They wouldn't risk it. They wouldn't endorse Le Pen per se, but you can bet they would try and stop Melenchon.

The Republicans wouldn't endorse Le Pen against Macron. But against Melenchon? They have nothing to lose, and everything to gain. If a Melenchon/Le Pen runoff happens, just you watch. It will happen.

>So what is he going to do?
prepare for the MP elections that comes just after
La Pine wouldn't have a majority to govern
Merdenchion wouldn't either, which is why he wants a new constitution (which would change jack shit as to that)

Look, you seem to have given this a lot of thought. But as someone who actually lives there, let me tell you that hell will freeze over twice before any of the candidates rally to Le Pen in some way or another.

The Republicans understand that if Melenchon becomes President they are fucked electorally as well. Melenchon, if he wins, will be seen as having a "mandate" for his policies, but you can bet the Assembly Republican Majority will not go along with him for any one of his promises. Melenchon will be decimated and politics in France will be more dysfunctional than ever. Who will be blamed? Melenchon, or the Republican majority? Both; with the lion's share of the blame being heaved on the Republicans because Melenchon will use his pulpit to put it on them, and it will be perceived that Melenchon won a "mandate" for his policies in May.

Fillon will be fucked. Melenchon will be fucked. The country will be fucked. Just look at what happened with the Labour Party in the Netherlands, how they were deserted by their base by having seen as succumbing to the centre right's policies in the coalition government. So if the Republicans go along with Melenchon at all, they will be even more fucked. In light of this, you cannot rule out an encouragement by the Republicans to vote AGAINST Melenchon in round two. Not FOR le pen. That is how they will frame it.

not how it works in France
we can have a commie president, with a capitalist government and parliament

and in that case, the president doesn't do shit, and it's the capitalist government that's ruling

Merdenchion (same as La Pine) wants an assembly proportional to the national vote (as of now, you can represent just 20% of the voters, and have a largely absolute majority in parliament)
if they managed to change the constitution for that to happen, granted, errything would be blocked

but cuckservatives with ~20% wouldn't then be blamed near as much as this tard system (which we had with the 4th republic, and which was such a failure it became a joke)

Did we allready give up on germany? Snitzel guy gonna win?

And that would result in complete chaos. Cohabitation with a communist/capitalist dichotomy would be the most dysfunctional government France has had yet.

>The crucial moment will come when Fillon ENDORSES Le Pen
topkek

>support Le Pen AGAINST the commie Melenchon
Half of the supporters of Melenchon are minors and minors can't vote. 2nd round will be Le Pen against Fillon.

>The Republicans understand that if Melenchon becomes President they are fucked electorally as well.
Approving Le Pen in France is committing a political suicide.

>you can bet the Assembly Republican Majority will not go along with him for any one of his promises
Majorities going to change after this election in June.

Dear Aussie,
Fillon will never endorses Le Pen
he's part of the "swamp" and has too much to lose and too little to win
plus, the FN hate him

forget it, no endorsement from the politicians
but surely Le Pen will get a lot of their voters

Fuck off shill. You're clearly trying to convince us that she will win so we will slack off on our efforts.

we already had such a situation, quite often actually

as long as it's the current system with skewed parliament representation warranting a majority, things take their usual course (which is shit in a semi-commie country, granted)

else, not one particulard side will be blamed
it's the representative system that will be blamed

been there, done that, rly
look up France 4th republic
also look up cohabitation under Miterrand and Chirac, during the current 5th republic

What happened to Macron?
Did he finally lose momentum or something?
Did the entire charade of "He's a maverick!" by the ((Media)) finally die down?

>Did he finally lose momentum or something?
yeah
people end up realizing only stinky wind comes out of his mouth

>that post
déjà vu
It's pasta from your previous thread. How many of those threads are you at? Seeing this thread, and comparing it to the previous, it seems you get btfo every thread. Why do you keep going? Is it subliminal to make us forget fillon is a cuck?

>the MP is elected
confirmed larper, seeing you don't want le pen but spit on melenchin, I bet you're an UPR zealot. Or just a jew that really doesn't want le pen.

>everything would be blocked
That meme again.

oh look a micron penis voter.
how is life among islamic terrorists being "good guys" you fucking bufoon ? Still thinking you're gonna be a millionnaire under micron who destroyed the french economy even more ? think you will renew France political life with EVERY OLD FAGGOT supporting your mockery of a candidate ?

Fillon is not proprietary of its voting base. They would have voted Juppé or sarkozy if they were the chosen candidate.
Those who are interested about europe don't care about the political union but about the value of their money on their bank accounts so they can buy the latest BMW car. These will vote Macron with the delusion they can preserve their wealth.
Those who are interrested about France care about safety, immigration, economy, taxes... Actual topics. These will vote Lepen with the conviction they're going to take their country back.

Macron sucks dick he has no interesting shit to say

far right and far left are the new hotness

Sorry boys, but LE PEN(IS) is a cunt. Melenchon will win this.

Member of Parliament, you double nigger
you're prbly thinking about Prime Minister, which would be PM

>implying it wouldn't be
it would take LR+FN alliance
which won't happen soon

>reads I consider Fion a socdem
>believes I'd be voting for the necrophile gigolo
I also consider the toyboy a socdem, albeit leaning left even more, btw

>implying the FN won't have the majority

>Voting in a woman
It went to well Germany, didn't it?

She's actualy worse, because she's literally being fucked by jews

yep, commies like you are dumb enough to believe such crap

Merkel literally is a jew, and a bolshevik to boot.

would have made sense if lepen wasn't leaning on the left economically. they know melenchon is a larper, noboby changes in France, only time things change is when we BTFO others or get BTFO by others.

yeah, no. It happened in the past.

>every woman is the same!
>every government is the same!
>every culture is the same!
Back to school with you kiddo, come back when you are old enough to vote and actually did it.

Kek wills it. Praise him.

Women are the same. Fuck off faggot.

and your mom is literally being fucked by my dick.

MELANSHILLS GET OUT
your candidate is
pro white genocide
pro antiwhite terrorism
pro islamization
pro kike israel
a free mason christianophobic
an authoritarian shithead with air in the skull
you are 16 years old
your memes suck
your infiltration techniques suck
the very fabric of the universe is against your beliefs

get out
leaning on the left is not the problem. the problem is taxes. every liberal shithead praises China and their lack of regulations and cheap labor. Last time I checked China is ruled by a communist party with zero opposition and the worst social services ever. Chinese public hospital is a complete nightmare for example.

No, as Lepen said, the difference is between patriots and globalists. Being left or right wing economically doesn't matter.

>Phi
Phi comme fils de pute !

Get off the internet, your husband is waiting for you.

>Being left or right wing economically doesn't matter
yeah, right... easy to say, when you're a leeching commie roach

Even Melenchon winning is good because that means civil war on the horizon and finally gas the kikes race war now will be a reality.

Kek. Brazil btfo

Praise our lord and saviour

the only thing that can save france is a military coup. The military will act only if melenchon is elected desu

Results when?

I think you should seek help from a doctor and a mathematician
Killing yourself would be simpler and less costly

sunday 8 pm

Mercî beacòup, monsîéur.

>Mercî beacòup, monsîéur.

>would be the most dysfunctional government France has had yet.

You can't go more dysfunctional than Hollande.

you're a fucking dumbass.
you really believe a left wing policy with low taxes and a vast spectrum of opportunities for a free market is worse than a right wing policy with high taxes and a fully openeed spectrum for anything resulting in no services at all ?

Congratulations for being a 16 years old libertarian my dude.

If you believe a social security, national companies securing basic services, and the state having a word to say on important matters in being a leeching commie roach, then I guess the USA are a communist country.

Qú'êst-cê qí'îl y â?

sieg heil, führer

...

Le Pen will loose against ANY candidate, including a chair, a table, a ficus and even a commie-backed far left

Need anything else ?

>"comment voulez-vous France ? "
>"just fuck my shit up, ami ! "

Media is saying she is struggling in polls. But I've heard that before! So make france great again!

Remember to check your blood pressure at least once in a day guys, it sounds bad.
And remember, Le Penis will loose badly, like she always does. Stay mad.

screencapped your post
I wish you were right but I have 0 faith in your scenario actually unfolding
See you next week.

You guys are dreaming.
It's france, the muslim capital of europe!

>loose

it's spelled lose, loose is a different word!

I'll wait and see the Austrian and Dutch shit kinda took the wind out my sails. Not to mention how Donald 'the beautiful babies' Trump seems to have turned.

no, the muslim capital of europe is your mom's cunt.

No misspell in this case, regarding Le Pen, I think it's actually LOOSE, you know.
Like every right-tard when it's time to bend and take it in the ass.

Maybe she would have chance in the fall, after this year's terrorists attacks in the summer.

We're never getting our white, fashy ethno-state through voting anyway. At this point it's just hoping that the liberals and kikes don't ruin our countries any further.

She will win the elections KEKS will it...

Ok cool but check these numbers haha Le Pen will win

Praise KEK
MARINE FUTURE PRESIDENT

He's right though. I'd rather not have a woman. I follow le pen because of her party, not her; because I have no other choice.

We need Le Pen spam
We need Le Pen meme War

Marine vas gagner. C'est un fait.

The FN is ALWAYS underperforming in the polls. Partly because of media biais when selecting pollees (underestimating certain demographics, or the amount of misery in France at the moment), partly because voting FN is still somewhat of a taboo (i.e. A lot of people will vote for her but never admit it), and partly because this complete fuckery of an election cycle has made people actually believe turning the page of the 5th republic is possible.

Le Pen will come out first in the first round Sunday. I'm still undecided about who she will face, but here are my estimates:

Against Melenchon: roughly 15% chance of happening, and if it does, Le Pen has 98% chance of winning the second round. Merluche is overrepresented, surfing on an inexistant dynamic. A lot of people declare voting for him to show extremism and being fed up by the system, but in secret will vote Le Pen.

Against Fillon: roughly 25% chance of happening. This is tricky. I sense a LOT of abstention, but Fillon might pull back in some FN votes that get cold feet. (I.e. "Ok he's right wing enough"). I sense Le Pen would win a second round, but barely. 60-40.

Against Macron: roughly 60% chance of happening. I fee Macron is a huge bubble that will pop open like an infected zit on election day, but he will still weasle through to the second round, barely. He is the most dangerous opponent, as his wishy washy stance gave him a fragile base, but also few enemies. He is the perfect goy picture boy for the Front Republicain anti FN alliance. This will be hard. I sense a tiny Le Pen victory, by only 1-3 percentage points.

>>t. In the know.

Pray Kek for LE PEN

En Français j'en fait des pires aussi.

>surfing on an inexistant dynamic.

Le Pen Will Win The Elections

remember to check for jamel and mamadou's dicks in your boipussy melanshill.

you're not going to win this either.

Seriously bitch why do you believe melanshit wants to give you 16 years old dicksuckers the right to vote ?
because he know his base is entirely composed of young turds like you.
in 5 years you will vote for an antifrench fucker like micronpenis and it will be over.

20% in your wetdreams.

topcuck because you leftard do not take it in the ass. JEJ
muslims fuck you everyday and you're willing to get fucked for them, see the fake theo affair.
the medef is the best friend of your syndicate mafia the CGT.
you accept those who come here to take your jobs then bitch about not having jobs.
you are the worst cukolds ever.

Wont happen, if she wins she will take france out of the eu and their hundred year plan of killing whitey will be potentially fucked

Marine Le Pen will win

Melenchón would win in a second round agaisnt MLP.

auf wiedershen

Oh come on, don't attempt to refute my argument with shitty polls.

He's surfing on a dynamic portrayed by the media to encourage fed up voters to turn left instead of right, to prevent Le Pen form winning.

Thos polls are not reliable AT ALL and not representative of the actual score of Merluche.

As I stated, many people who declare themselves for him in the poll will actually vote FN. They just will not admit it, and Melenchon is a more socially acceptable way of saying "fuck this system i want something new".

But in the serenity and secrecy of the voting booth.... they will all put Marine in the enveloppe.

Le moment où Hamon a commencé a glissé vers le bas, Meléchon a commencé a monter, j'imagine que les gauchiasses ont décidé de le supporter lui à la place?

Praise Kek.

Le Pen is Bayern of politics.

>Wont happen, if she wins she will take france out of the eu


AFAIK, no. She toned down a lot on this.

At first, said she'll wait the German elections

then said she'll wait for the German AND Italian elections

then wait for the German, Italian elections, and start NEGOCIATION

kek !

>hillary will win in a 90% landslide.

Inb4 they do what that other country did last year and all the candidates quit except the one who can beat her even though they were higher

You do realize that you will be in the 1st boat if Le Pen win ?

She wants to negociate on 4 points:

- supremacy of french laws over european directives

- national control of borders and migration

- economic independance of france from brussellian meddling

- opting out of the common policies, notably the agricultural platform.

If the EU balks at allowing these freedoms, she will call for a referendum on Frexit.

She knows the cowardly EU is scared shitless as Frexit will cause the end of the EU, so they will accomodate.

was not saying Hillary is going to win, but the dynamic of Le Pen is not good;

She lost 5 points the last month.

Je suis Francais, cretin. Je me suis expatrie en attendant que la France redevienne glorieuse.

She probably taught her niece the wonders of the BBC. Those french girls just can't resist a bulging black knob to devour

Marine Le Pen will win praise KEK

exact

How new can you be? Of course she's losing points in (((polls))). The same reason melenchon gains has dynamic, the same reason macron was at 25% day 1. It's all a fabrication.

Le pen is no more losing points than melenchon is gaining or macron ever had.
Learn to politics.

>negociate

>mean do nothing but margin changes

Topkek, you know that Le Penis fail is imminent when her biggest supporters are from Portugal and Ghana.

Sounds like your hemorrhoids are swelling again Robert, could it be that you are anticipating it again? Remember 2012, 2007, 2002... You will never top more than 5%.