This kills civilization

>this kills civilization

Other urls found in this thread:

euanmearns.com/eroei-for-beginners/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_latency
sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516301379
energyskeptic.com/2016/when-trucks-stop-running-so-does-civilization/
energyskeptic.com/2016/diesel-finite-where-are-electric-trucks/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asphalt#Alternatives_and_bioasphalt
declineoftheempire.com/2014/10/adventures-in-flatland.html
cassandralegacy.blogspot.fi/2017/03/why-eroei-matters-role-of-net-energy-in.html
youtube.com/watch?v=4LBjSXWQRV8
youtube.com/watch?v=qnZHMmCjpQ8
edition.cnn.com/2016/11/17/us/midland-texas-mammoth-oil-discovery/
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-39406131
twitter.com/AnonBabble

we've been on the last two barrels of oil since 1920. environmentalist fags are unable to understand the difference between "amount of oil profitable to produce at given levels of cost while keeping prices the same" and "amount of oil that exists everywhere"

Jesus what happened about the early 2000s that might have fucked with oil producing countries??

Really doesn't make you think

Oil is NOT the only energy. (If true) this will probably kill gasoline cars, but homes will be heated, the trains will run, the factories will still work, and life will go on.

Why do you think they are pushing these crappy electric cars so hard? When petrol goes to $10 / litre electric cars (recharged from coal and nuclear) will be what you use.

We have greater proven oil reserves than we ever have before. Every single prediction ecofags have made has been false.

it's gunna happen one day, you cunts have been predicting this since I was in primary school.

...

>doesn't understand the importance of plastics and other uses of oil that are not related to energy

We've been predicting oil to die off ever since the 1900s, yet they keep growing.

After a certain point though, it becomes so energy intensive to get at these reserves that the overall volume of oil goes down. Food for thought. Energy isn't free.

...

That will be hundreds of years from now. By that time thorium power will be mainstream.

Plastic can be made from literally any organic compound, it's just way cheaper to use byproducts from the oil industry. When oil gets more expensive, it will be phased out as a raw material for plastic and give way for other solutions. HOWEVER, this could lead to a sharp spike in the price of plastics which would lead to plastics being used only when necessary (which is a good thing).

euanmearns.com/eroei-for-beginners/

It's happening now

Doesn't understand that plastics can be made from bio-oil (albeit more expensively). Doesn't understand that coal can be liquefied to produce the needed hydrocarbons for fertilizer production. Also if plastic become more expensive they might actually start making things out of metal again. Heaven forbid you buy something that will actually last for a few decades.

Food might become a little more expensive but that will just make westerners less fat, while the 3rd world starves.

>peak oil being a thing after fracking
Lol. We can get oil virtually anywhere now.

>peak oil will happen in 1995
>peak oil will happen in 1999
>peak oil will happen in 2005
>peak oil will happen in 2012
>peak oil will happen in 2013
>peak oil will happen in 2015
>peak oil will happen in 2017
>peak oil will happen in 2020

We have chemistry, you can make oil out of every carbohydrate and by extension also plastic.
It's not as profitable as using oil but the technology is there and it's breddy gud :D:DD:D:D

...

...

>falling for the peak-oil meme

"Green energy" electric cars are manufactured from iron and hydrocarbons.

Gas hydrates, m80s. The fossil fuel era hasn't yet begin.

...

All that will happen is thet oil become more expensive, so things like electric cars, bio-fules, etc will became more economically viable. For fuck sake, we had technology for electric cars since the 19th century.

True, but for you to break on it even you need to charge something like 90-120$ for barrel whlie Saudis can turn profit at like 20$ or something.

Hopefully we're at peak nig.

Time to switch to thorium.

Unfortunately, no. Total population of Africa is likely to peak at 4 billion before it starts to collapse.

One good strategy here is to contain them to Africa, stop allowing them to migrate, make them live in their own shit. The faster their population hits 4 billion, the sooner it can begin to collapse.

Allowing them to escape just allows them to propagate the contamination to other regions while extending the time it takes for Africa to peak out.

From what I've read depleted oil fields in Texas are actually producing more oil, if what I read is true, we'll have oil forever

Riddle me this Norwegian friend. Why is the oil price falling in $$$ terms when money printing has occurred at an unprecedented rate for nearly a decade?

What is peak oil? Peak oil is when the cost to the consumer prohibits demand, while simultaneously not covering the cost of extraction. The of this source is depleted reserves. There is plenty of oil left, but there is not enough cheap oil left.

It all happened right on time, as predicted. The West tries to replace the oil fed growth with printed money growth. How is that Norwegian oil fund looking these days? Ready to start borrowing like the Saudis?

Inaccurate predictions don't negate the fact that pollution has an impact on the environment. "Global warming" may be overhyped, but human contributions to climate change can be measured in ecosystems. Sometimes I feel like the right is tossing the baby out with the bathwater for the sake of opposing liberals.

From what I've read though, it's increasingly less profitable. Probably too much zerohedge tier atuff but justsayin.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_latency

I know it's for nukes, but it's an interesting thought to ponder. What if we have the same policy in place for thorium reactors? The moment oil stops becoming the cash cow it is, we can have a ton of thorium reactors ready to go online in a few months notice.

>thorium

This is the thing that makes me insane.

If the U.S. and the EU and Japan dedicated about 10 billion/per year each to pure thorium reactor research, we could crack the problems within a decade and be thorium energy for several millennia. Especially with advances in solar to compliment it.

But, Certain Interests insist that we remain on a petro-energy treadmill to make sure that Certain Interests rake in wealth and remain in power. It's completely fabricated.

Technically they are producing record levels of dept. Their fracking is extremely poor extraction, they damned clever. Top oil men, shit field. One well would produce for 30 years in the old days. A US fracking well produces for 30 days. This is why production craters almost instantly as the rig count drops.

Yeah but you still need the energy to make it. Making plastics from things other than oil requires even more energy. It's a diminishing returns scenario.

Solar is only 80% efficient and is actually a net loss of energy in temperate climates. Just though that was relevent.

sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516301379

>Why is the oil price falling in $$$ terms when money printing has occurred at an unprecedented rate for nearly a decade?

You mean the 2014 oil crash?
We overproduced and Saudis decide to cut down price to 50$ to hold their piece of the market.

A Thorium breeder reactor will also take U238 (existing nuclear waste).
Take any cubic meter of soil of average composition. Remove the Uranium and Thorium and you will have about a 3cm cube (yes, radioactive stuff is that common).
Put that in a next-gen reactor and you have the equivalent of 33 cubic meters of oil.

This is why its not happening. You have a 3 way power balance (currently failing) of shekels, Saudi oil and American guns.
It falls apart completely of energy is literally cheaper than dirt.

>
>After a certain point though, it becomes so energy intensive to get at these reserves that the overall volume of oil goes down. Food for thought. Energy isn't free.

That's my understanding as well. From what I've read, you need 10:1 for oil to be profitable, and an additional 20:1 to keep transportation and food production systems running in a western economy. And that's before and of all the other thousands of activities humans engage in like keeping the lights on. I think we'll see a shift to natural gas as a stop gap measure.

diminishing returns on almost limitless nuclear energy.

Debt is the answer you are looking for.

Ahh. Misunderstood you. That's actually reasonable and I'm with you there, user. Next question is if we can get nuclear infrastructure up and running before the crash.

Did you believe this? How is it possible to over produce oil? 80% of the global population could never afford it. There is bottomless demand. If the price falls, demand should rise as more people can afford it. Instead, oversupply continues.

Pump gas in NZ is still $2 and that is still too much. The reasoning is "transport costs" ignoring the fact all transport costs are ultimately hydrocarbon costs. This is thermodynamic failure. It's too expensive to buy and to extract.

Why is Zimbabwe not the richest country in the world? Central banks tell us inflation drives the economy. The are dirt poor because they have inflation and no resources to buy with the paper. We are about to join them.

>That's my understanding as well. From what I've read, you need 10:1 for oil to be profitable, and an additional 20:1 to keep transportation and food production systems running in a western economy.
Yeah, there is plenty of oil left but it got shit energy returns, oil sand and oil from fracking are just memes.

Pretty easily

Look at France

Partially. Debt and designed obsolescence. But nevertheless, a reset to zero would not help. There are 8 billion people on the planet increasing exponentially. We export our inflation to them, then they import themselves and their poverty (migrants) to us.
Oil outgrew people through the flat part of the population growth curve. No fucking way in hell we can grow oil production at the rate Africans breed.

Is the juice worth the squeeze?

Venezuela has one of the largest oil reserves on the plant, but they have to cut it qith refined oil because it's so damn thick and full of impurities. Takes alot of oil just to make the oil.

Yes.

There are two major support systems for civ, agricultural production and trucking industry. Both run on diesel machines. Diesel is manufactured from heavy crude, and heavy crude production will plummet in the next 10 years. No way around it.

energyskeptic.com/2016/when-trucks-stop-running-so-does-civilization/

energyskeptic.com/2016/diesel-finite-where-are-electric-trucks/

Agreed

Can we keep the extraction low until we can sort the technology out enough so that we don't completley contaminate the water table?

I know a few people who had bad experiences with fracking, long story short their water is still flammable.

Good point. Forgot about them. Standardization works well.

>Did you believe this? How is it possible to over produce oil?

Is it really that hard to belive? I don't think you can just turn the tap with the oil all willy-nilly, because "well, tommorow they don't need that much as today".

>80% of the global population could never afford it.

80% of population doesn't buy that much oil. It goes mostly to the indusrty.

>Why is Zimbabwe not the richest country in the world? Central banks tell us inflation drives the economy.

What? that doesn't mean that more inltation = more wealth. How fucking dumb are you? "Well if apple a day keeps the doctor away, might as well eat 3 tonnes of them today to be healthy forever!"

And, i would like to add to this, that creating new energy infrastructure from zero to global scale takes about 30-50 years.

>oil becomes short in supply
>price goes way up in response
>it's no longer viable as a source of energy
>energy companies dump billions into R&D to make alternative energy sources viable so they can continue making money
>oil is no longer an issue
there I fixed it

Take this (you) out of respect for your digits.

...

>What is the unrelenting march of technology?

If this also means no polution I'm all for it.

I already use my bike more anyway

...

>Is the juice worth the squeeze?
Depends on the price, necessity is the mother of invention. Also oil based products are really the only thing that can practically drive the big rig trucks (you would need train like power cables over the highway for electric trucks) that supply everything we need. And in that can it might still be worth extracting it even at a loss (with power from other sources) because it is a practical energy storage medium that can be used in machines.

But i've heard that the US has yuge oil reserves in Alaska that would last for hundreds of years even when factoring in future growth and that they just kept quit about it because it would mess up the economy (shale oil in the US and their allies in the middle east, saudi arabia for example) and because its smarter to use every one else oil first.

Might be bullshit though who knows, it makes sense though. The Spaniards found a fuckton of gold in SA and they bought that back to Spain, didn't really help them at all. Guess it would be the same with a huge oil glut, at least for now.

I think gasoline and diesel personal cars are dead in the long run though.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asphalt#Alternatives_and_bioasphalt

@122266994
Not even worth a (You)

Fracking is a dodgy business. It's the oil reserve equivalent of scraping the bottom of a jam jar.

Thorium MSRs are currently at the post-experimental, pre-commercial role out stage. Built and run. There are some corrosion issues. Jewtube Kirk Sorenson. He is the American that is most on top of this. The plans for what is currently the most powerful, cheapest and safest energy source ever built reside in a cupboard at Oak Ridge. They gave them to the Chinese who have a thousand scientists and a billion dollars on it (but they are Chinese). Apparently, they are advancing well.

With modern computer modeling and advanced chemical engineering, it's not a big job.
We could have unlimited energy and thus exponential prosperity that makes 1950s US look shit for about the same money Tesla is wasting.

>How is it possible to over produce oil? 80% of the global population could never afford it. There is bottomless demand. If the price falls, demand should rise as more people can afford it. Instead, oversupply continues.

The answer is storage and refinery capacity. On land storage facilities are so full of oil that companies have begun renting tanker ships to hold inventory. Also, oil is useless in its natural state and needs to be refined. Any bottle necks at refineries will create oversupply.

STOP LIVING IN CITIES

That was my thinking as well. And the longer we wait, the harder it will be to do. Another user mentioned France though. So I'm doubting those numbers now.

Good luck fueling jet engines with just bottles.

>muh peak oil
>it will happen in 1981
>it will happen in 1982
...
>it will happen in 2015
>it's current year+2.38 and we're still not at peak oil
Really makes you think.

>Fracking is a dodgy business. It's the oil reserve equivalent of scraping the bottom of a jam jar.
Its the equivalent of spraying solvent into the jar to dissolve last pieces of oil, extracting the oil and some of the solvent and then just throwing the jar in a hole in the ground.

Long but relevant:

declineoftheempire.com/2014/10/adventures-in-flatland.html

Could you get hold of the economists running the developed world and let them know inflation does not result in wealth? You better be quick, because it is the founding principal of the global economy. What is a growth economy?

Minus the sarcasm, I agree with you. But you are out of your depth. It does not matter if the oil goes to industry or a car, 80% can't afford it. Meaning they can afford neither cars nor industry and are mud hut poor and breed like flies.

The prosperity we were enjoying came from more of these people moving out of their mud huts due to expanding energy supplies. Now we have people who were in houses moving back to mud huts as the energy supply contracts.

I would love to drive my lovely TDi till death do us apart. Keep up the good work.

I like this. It's less lonely when one other person understands.

the population keeps doubling

We waste more fuel every 2 minutes than the entire population did in a year back in 1981

Related to peak oil, there are two relevant ideas. Peak itself, and net energy. Also, crude type matters. Shale and fracking produce light crude, that is usable for industrial purposes and small cars, but almost unusable for manufacturing of diesel because of low net energy. Cant run civ on fracked oil. In other words, dont fixate on concept of peak, check net energy principle. When decline starts, net energy is going to go from current to -80% in 10 years.

cassandralegacy.blogspot.fi/2017/03/why-eroei-matters-role-of-net-energy-in.html

What does it make you think? That the collapse was miscalculated by less than a generation? That's a blink of the eye if you're looking at the big picture.

It's not that they are inaccurate, but completely fucking wacko.

It's like looking at the picture and saying "IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE, THE PERSON CUTTING VEGGIES WILL STAB THEMSELVES!!!" The hysterical nature of such claims does anyone who actually cares about the environment a disservice.

>If this also means no polution I'm all for it.
If CO2 is the problem, you're "polluting" the world by breathing.

And no, it doesn't mean no pollution. But it will mean that your bike will need to be made out of wood.

Not sure what part of that is fucked up. I think you misunderstood what I meant. All I'm saying is that if it takes 10 barrels to make 9 barrels, you're not getting much. At the point it takes 10 to make 10, well, there's no point.

9 to make 10, sorry.

m8 I was referencing your post number

fat fuck detected

>they still use fossil fuel

>I like this. It's less lonely when one other person understands.
Fracking is fucking retarded, is barely profitable (it isn't with the oil prices we have now) and its environmentally questionable. You run the risk of permanently fucking the ground water for a minuscule return on energy invested. What then? Desalinating sea water is extremely energy demanding .

>inb4 they seal the shaft so the fracking fluid can't get out
yeah, they do some crappy as job sealing the shaft that will hold long enough for them to pick up their gear and move to another location. If it breaks later they can just blame it on something else. And so what if it holds for a long time? A small minuscule earthquake that doesn't even damage building is going to mess up those things underground. The US is fucking itself long term for short term profit. More self destructive then a crack addict prostitute, what ever they can do to get a cheap credit fix.

Plus the date was always ~2004. Seems to have been bang on. GFC in 2008, then a false recovery where financials go sky high but mining, farming, shipping/freight plummet. Primary industries are getting slain.

It gets worse. All ore reserves are calcualted against energy. So if its 100,000,000 ton of copper, that assumes X level of oil abundance. But people compete with mines for oil. So even if oil continues to grow at 2-4% a year like it used to, the enormous number of hungry mouths will take more oil away from mining. Reserves crater, poverty (and breeding) increase, metal prices to refiners and drillers rise, oil production falls.
You start to see why civilisations tend to grow steadily and then just dissapear almost instantly.

>66 in the id and digits
nice

Well, there is a point if you aren't looking for efficiency and are just looking for a specific medium.

For example, if you have a machine that will only accept one medium and you don't have any of that medium, but you have another medium that can be used to create the medium that you need then you do have a reason to do that.

tl;dr there is a reason to do it for the rare instances of machines that aren't feasible to run off of anything other than oil.

coffee cups are worse

>Could you get hold of the economists running the developed world and let them know inflation does not result in wealth? You better be quick, because it is the founding principal of the global economy. What is a growth economy?

Can you give me quote on that? I'm pretty sure that when they say inflation, they mean in in reasonable numbers or as opposition to deflation. Not Zimbabwe-tier inflation.

>
The prosperity we were enjoying came from more of these people moving out of their mud huts due to expanding energy supplies. Now we have people who were in houses moving back to mud huts as the energy supply contracts.

I don't think it's as simle as that. There are more factors tha just energy.

Just posting this for posterity
youtube.com/watch?v=4LBjSXWQRV8

i honestly think we'll nuke ourselves before we run out of oil

I will be nice. Just start tracing absolutely anything back to its origins. There are no factors other than energy. After a while you work this out. Easier from my perspective as my role in industry is resource estimation.
They can muddy the waters with policy, but they only defer or deflect. Exporting inflation keeps the illusion of $$$ value at home, but it causes so much poverty in neighbouring countries you get migrants.

I was joking about zimbabwe, but you get my point. They printed money but had no resources. We assume when we print money, it will generate resources. Money no longer generates resources, so we are economically in the same boat.

youtube.com/watch?v=qnZHMmCjpQ8

About gold, but sheds some light on finance.

So what about places like Singapore? They aren't major energy producer, yet they are filthy rich.

I suppose you were making the point with your pic that nothing is happening. Oil companies have been stockpiling patents for decades. But it would be bad business to move away from oil till they can't squeeze any more out of the ground.

They are just sitting on new tech till an infrastructure change is required. I'm talking about electrical distribution suitable for vehicles to replace gas stations. Think about it, when was the last time they built a new refinery? Our sharpest and most painful price spikes have coincided with refinery shutdowns or pipeline failures, not a lack of crude.

Production and money are two completely separate things. You think Wallstreet actually makes anything? This is why sound money is so incredibly important. When they re-direct wealth through policy they also re-direct investment and break the founding principals of a free market. Something truly essential to living standards like oil or mining lies forgotten, while a resource sink like real estate goes sky high.
It's not going to be pretty. I'm a gold explorer who lives on a beef farm in New Zealand. I'm about as set up as I can get.

Peak Oil is a myth by environmental fags.

EVERY YEAR we find more new oil then we use.

> Mammoth Texas oil discovery biggest ever in USA
edition.cnn.com/2016/11/17/us/midland-texas-mammoth-oil-discovery/

> Hurricane makes 'largest undeveloped' oil find in UK waters
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-39406131

There are roughly 2 TRILLION barrels of collectable oil worldwide.
(the most, 300 billion being in venezuela, lol, socalists BTFO)

the world consumes about 100 million barrels per day.

so some simple maths would show you we have AT LEAST 50 years of oil remaining.

The truth is we find more oil every year than we use, as well as the demand on oil reducing.

Which is all really good news really: because without oil WE ARE FUCKED.
around 80% of food prices in the uk are directly attributed to oil price.
only need oil to double in price, and millions can't afford to eat.

I think I'm starting to see your point.
So you're basically trying to look for the sources of intrinsic value in money, right? Meaning if all hell broke loose in the markets, you're going for having physical things rahter that engading complex financial instruments that profit from failing markets?

there is enough nuclear energy from thorium in 1 meter cubed to power a 1 person house for a life time.

Thorium IS why we are living on earth atm, the heating of the core of earth is done from thorium reactions.

IT IS the most widely available fuel in the world.

Steps to Thorium:
1. Ignore the Chinese (they bought all the patents)
2. Work on molten salt technology
** Molten salt generators are about 60% efficient compared to the 20% of steam generators. **
3. Build molten salt generator
4. ...
5. Profit!