Now that Le Pen is set to go to the second round, let's have a serious discussion /pol.
Unless somebody convinces me otherwise, it seems goddamn impossible for Le Pen to win. And don't give me parallels to Trump, it didn't apply when Geert Wilders actually underperformed in the past Dutch elections and when Hofer lost the Presidential election in Austria despite him leading in the polls. We're totally screwed.
Think about it.
If the polls turn out to be right, then Le Pen will surely lose. There's only two weeks until round 2
Macaroni is not extreme, just a run-of-the-mill bureaucrat and shill, but who will "catch all" the normies and useful idiots who like him because he's safe, boring centrist.
Le Pen really has no chance unless (1) the polls are entirely wrong and there is a "hidden" Le Pen vote, (2) there is some scandal with Macaroni or (3) something extreme happens, like another terrorist attack.
Ideally, it should have been Melenchon verus Le Pen which would have given Le Pen a victory because the centrists and Fillon cucks would've voted for her esp. over a communist. When you have a centrist versus a radical, in this boring day and age where people can't be inspired to step outside of their comfort zone, the centrist always wins.
The reason I think it is important to have this discussion is because there seems to be a lot of Americans on this board who are just saying "REMEMBER WHAT HAPPENED WITH TRUMP" but that's a really damaging way to look at this. Trump won with a sliver of a margin and even then, there was evidence of a "secret Trump vote." The same rules do not apply to France and if this board gets tunnel vision like that, we'll have a hard reality check two weeks from now. This election is arguably the most important election in Europe.
If Le Pen or any serious right-wing candidate could win at ANY point in France, it would be now. The other candidates are utterly embarrassing and both of the major parties are widely disliked, not to mention Hollande's approval rating is literally 4%. If Macaroni wins in France, the momentum is effectively over. Any hopes of Europe changing are over and the EU will continue to exist, and the decline will persist, and the West will ultimately just be a footnote in history. Try to think about this all with sober senses.
Brayden Moore
Guess nobody wants to talk about serious shit on this fucking board? Fuck Sup Forums
Elijah Gutierrez
Dumping SS for other annons to see.
Anthony White
>it seems goddamn impossible for Le Pen to win
Sexist and misogynistic.
Grayson Bell
This is already wrong since Melenchon is not going to the second round.
Robert Morgan
If we meme it, then they will come.
Also, we've got /our guy/ in the white house, and if a right leaning France is what he wants, then expect a fuck huge terrorist attack in France. Screen cap this.
Brody Reyes
Anybody have a good website to follow live election results? These English websites are no good.
Matthew Rogers
macron sucks at economie and was fired when he was working for hollande which got replaced by Valle , he looks weak compared to Lepen and now everyone is shitting their pants saying they need to crush Marine because muh evil nazi and etc. I think it will be an easy win for Lepen in 2 weeks
Jaxson Foster
I hope you're right leaf, but the story on the ground seems to be different
Zachary Green
Alright, so the only chance le pen has, is to be very good at the debate, macron is really bad at debating, so that's her only chance, because now, the state and all other parties will do everything they can to favour Macron, really, you'll be impressed by the propaganda.
Asher Mitchell
The last few days, a lot of Hamon/Mélenchon shills started to dig up the failure of Macron's investments plan for employment (in short, a net loss for the government budget with only few jobs created). I wonder if they'll hide this now that his opponent if Le Pen.
Jason Peterson
>brexit happens but it appears that it won't be as awesome as everyone thought >trump won but he does what every us president would be doing in his place (although i support him) >wilders lost in the netherlands >hoffer lost hard in austria >france ...? i think after some wave of support for "right wing" it has lost its momentum
if you want white country just move to Poland
Kayden Ortiz
Even if Le Pen doesn't win the fact that she got so close will make other parties adopt some of her policies as it's what many people what.
Angel Wood
>macron sucks at economie and was fired when he was working for hollande which got replaced by Valle 100% wrong, he's good at economy, he just don't do it in the interest of France He wasn't fired by Hollande, he resigned, he wasn't replaced by Valls, he was replaced by el komri
Evan Hall
Parisian here.
She won't get elected. Even if she would, there would be riots like the ones your currently see on youtube.
We are not a fearmongering, pitiful people like the americans.
Get fukt, alt-fagz.
Nathan Russell
>"Terrorism is a part of daily life." That is NOT a fucking Centrist position... And if it actually IS, Europe is even more fucked then I thought it was.
Jordan Phillips
fag
Joseph Green
National Front was in 2nd round in 2002 but they got obliterated. I don't think Le Pen will have the same fate but history weighs heavy this time around.
Isaac Collins
>shill can't wait 10 minutes before becoming a nervous cuck begging for replies
Well, here you go.
Joseph Bailey
It's Her Turn.
Liberals must vote Le Pen.
Ayden Kelly
Yeah, I'm getting at you in your own language, bitch. Suce donc ma grosse queue, petit étron fasciste.
Anthony Scott
Le Pen's entire strategy to the point of isolating herself from her father and in a way her niece has been to create a Left wing economics program to go with the right wing cultural program.
This was simply to appeal to the socialists and the Commies for the this exact moment. If she can convince Melanchon and his commies to vote for her and SOME of les republicans she'll be ok. Its time to find out if she really deserves to be leader of the FN. If she fails then she shoudl resign all power to Jean Marie and Marion.
Jason Sanchez
>(You)'s incoming
Blake Barnes
fag
Owen Cooper
>if you want white country just move to Poland Is Poland still ran by one right-wing party?
Henry Brown
Macron: 23% Le Pen: 22%
Now, the globalist tv media will pretend this means all good things for Macron, but they are quite mistaken. Looking further at the numbers a big one jumps out:
Dupont-Aignan: 5%
His support is all Le Pen support and is explicitly pro-Frexit. So you can add these voters to her tally.
Hamon: 6%
Absolutely pathetic. He is the candidate of the party currently holding the Presidency. His supporters will all vote for Macron if they vote at all, but their numbers are so low it's not really important what he or they think.
Melenchon and FIllon: both 19%
This is the real money right here. Melenchon's voters are unlikely to fall in line and vote Macron - they are "woke" and oppose exactly what he is for. Look for Macron and the media to try and lure these voters and/or discourage them as much as possible because they are the true wild card. Le Pen can't take them all, but her economic proposals are enticing. Probably half of these are Le Pen voters who wanted to try another option but given the choice of Macron they will support Le Pen. The media will not report this.
Fillon voters are a third establishment and Macron can count on them. The other 2/3 will be up for grabs or will stay home - at least a quarter of them are Le Pen voters who again wanted to try another option first. So, doing the math:
Le Pen: 22 plus Dupont-Aignan: 5 plus Melenchon: 9 plus Fillon: 9 plus Asselinau (another Frexit): 1
She's got 46% natural constituency right there.
The path to victory for Macron is through the media and Paris virtue-signallers.
The path to victory for Le Pen is through the rest of the country, through economic protectionism arguments, and through negative tactics against Macron.
David Richardson
>Le Pen's entire strategy to the point of isolating herself from her father and in a way her niece has been to create a Left wing economics program to go with the right wing cultural program. and tell me now she isn't retarded
Gavin King
>We are not a fearmongering >there would be riots At least be consistent with yourself, antifaggot
Oliver Scott
>in this boring day and age
>living in the current year
pick one
Juan Butler
>dem dubz it's more like nat-soc party but in current political climate it's considered right wing
Aiden Ward
>there would be riots like the ones your currently see on youtube Good, any shitskins that are arrested at those could be easily deported
If she can manage to pick up all of Fillon and Dupont-Aignan's voters, as well as voters from the other right-wing parties, then she's over 50%. So the question is, can she pick them up or not? And also, will voter turnout among the lefties drop now that they no longer have a candidate representing their interests?
Carson Roberts
How would I fare with no Polish language skills?
Robert Diaz
Actual results are showing Le Pen at 26% right now, not 22%.
Jaxson Thompson
Geert and /polder/ were uniclusive, low-energy cuckbitches. Every thread was in hagelslsfhfbb tongue, and the shit they were doing was incomprehensible. It was weak. Le Pen has our energy.
PRESS E TO DEDICATE YOUR ENERGY TO THE CAUSE
David Price
Its probably retarded. The french media if you follow it don't report on her move to the left on economic issues. They report the family strife as a result of her 'softening the image' when in fact it has to do with left wing economic policies and faggots.
So far all she has done is damage the party. She hasn't effectively messaged to the left wing voters that she is offering them a similiar vision to Melanchon and the media is happy to ignore this.
Anthony Sanchez
Yes. You are screwed.
The rest of the thinking, developed world knows better.
Enjoy your Russian puppet in power along with the bongs.
Robert Wood
Geert actually did well. He didn't win the election but he made big gains in a country where they had literally nothing. Its not common for fringe parties to blow up in parliamentary systems, only Podemos in Spain has been successful at that.
Cameron Morris
she coulda won if second round if was her vs melanchon
Thomas Williams
>dem nips >dat definition I want to worship her ass
Jaxon Rivera
Hopefully the equivalent of Bernie voters won't vote for the equivalent of Hillary, we'll have to see.
Grayson Taylor
It's simple... We kill the macaroni.
Bentley Cooper
polls are never right
Evan Morgan
>serious discussion >pol You're asking a lot here.
Pen has only a tiny chance of winning but we should've known that. She's basically extreme right. Do you know how many blacks and muzziez there are in France? And when does any extremist win an election? Never? You can't draw a parallel to Trump because he wasn't extremist in any way. He just wasn't boring old Hillary, which is also the reason that he won.
Christian Nelson
Low energy, not no energy. They didn't have the support of our most powerful memegicians.
Carter Gutierrez
>you need Polish everyone would be very fucking happy if you will be able to speak few words here and there, but most of us (at least those >40 y/o) have at least decent english language skills polish is hard as hell even for poles and we know that to top that she's extremely pro-russian who ever would consider voting her?
Levi Wilson
And I just listened to Fillon's concession speech. He endorsed Macron because of Le Pen's socialist economic policy. Its likely if she had kept her father's original conservative economic programme she could have had his endorsement.
Thats a big blow desu. Melanchon isn't likely to endorse her despite their common interest in Frexit.
Jayden White
False OP, Macron is a crony of the Rothschilds and married a pedophile who started a relationship with him when he was 15. Macron's parents were against their marriage.
Meme shit like that into the public sphere and keep publicizing the daily terror attacks in France, and you'll have everyone saying Madame President in no time
Sebastian Nelson
Pro-Russian? So what? France has historically had good relations with Russia.
Jacob Cook
i dont get why burgers scream that its over for Europe,you've been 50% white for quite some time and you've done fine Europe will soldier trough,no problem. the future belongs to race-mixed negroids anyway so why fight it....
Jackson Phillips
who give a shit bout that cunt?
Asher Evans
The brown skins are all tied to the coasts so we don't usually see them.
Connor Ortiz
SAY IT WITH ME:
MADAME
Samuel Jackson
What the fuck is round 2? How do they do the elections over in Frogland? Is having rounds just a way to stop people from beating the globalist cucks?
Matthew Cox
>Pro-Russian? So what? this hiv infested, backward thinking, servant nation, with banana-republic economy? nothing at all >France has historically had good relations with Russia. one of the most retarded things i saw here and we're on fucking Sup Forums
Logan Thomas
The globalists saw the writing on the wall, and repackaged their agenda in a political outsider with a fresh new party, but the same old ideas.
This will be the winning strategy for the globalists moving forward.
William Gonzalez
The only reason trump was able to swing the 5% or so of people who won him the election was because of Wikileaks. Le pen doesn't age that opportunity.
Jaxson Foster
They hold a runoff election between the top two if nobody gets above 50% in the first round. We do the same thing in literally everything except Presidential elections, although our runoffs usually happen in the primaries, not the general election.
Anthony Ortiz
I agree. The Geert support was weak as fuck. The threads were pure shitstorm cancer and the worst part is that they bailed ship a few weeks before the election. Made me ashamed of my country.
Luke Gonzalez
>Le pen doesn't age that opportunity. All we can hope for is some more terror attacks in Paris.
William Hernandez
& this Poor, warmongering, genocidal, obnoxiously agressive, uncivilized, soulless nation suffering eternal identity crisis(first they stole the Kievan Rus' history, then they defeated and subjugated another important Rus' cultural centre - Novgorod, claimed to be the "Third Rome", then tried to establish themselves as a proper European state copying the Western art and developements, then realizing how multicultural and diverse is their state they came up with """"USSR"""" abandoning their former flag and culture, after it's pathetic fall they are again lost and clueless so they sperg out). Collectivist minded and servile society with no regard to human life. They don't care about their personal wealth, freedom etc as long as Mother Russia and the Tsar is fine. They lack empathy, incapable of establishing a friendly relations on equal terms. Apart from Moscow and St Petersburg and some oil regions Russia is extremely poor and undeveloped - as the Russians are incapable of producing anything sophisticated almost the entire wealth of the country comes from it's natural resources. Except for the art and architecture directly derived either from the Greeks(all the Orthodox architecture they have horribly bastardized, icons) or Westerners(these fancy palaces in St. Petersburg) they barely have contributed to the culture at all. Considering a very large population their scientific contribution is utterly underwhelming, vastly inferior compared to the Western Slavs. Entire society is subjected to brainwashing propaganda blaming the Americans for everything, making them praise their Tsar Putin and support all the vicious acts of violence and terror. They can't even into geopolitics - Russia still pretends it's 19th century and the best way for the state to succeed is to be egoistic, xenophobic, expansive, imperialistic, overly-nationalistic and authoritarian. Russia is the true cancer of humanity and I sincerely hope it breaks apart as soon as possible.
David Bell
I firmly believe that there's dozens of hidden Le Pen voters that will win her the presidency. There's no fucking way that France is willing to put up with all the terrorist shit it's had to go through over the past few years.
It won't be a landslide but it'll be a win nonetheless.
Cameron Rodriguez
Yup sorry to piss on The_Donald's cornflakes but Macron making into the second round means Le Pen is toast.
If some leftie had made it into the second round against Le Len instead of Macron lots of right leaning voters would have held their noses or whatever but still voted Le Pen.
But now with a right-leaning moderate facing Le Pen leftist centrist and moderate right-leaning voters will combine to keep the far right out.
Again sorry but this is the only rational analysis of the situation. Take the US election by contrast. Trump was able to win so many votes because of how many people refused to vote for Hillary. If he'd been running against a centrist democrat it would have gone completely differently.
Asher Campbell
Was a reply to
Daniel Reyes
Kill yourself shill
Or maybe we'll just wait and let Soros and the EU do that for us, so many different ways to skin a cat
Carson Mitchell
Dear French People please stop being fucking cucks and go redpill your peers. This is the fate of your country that it is at risk. Maybe even the West Civilization.
Don't give ammo to the memes saying that you always give up and throw the white flag.
Go redpill your normies. Make them see the truth. You were given one last chance to make it right. Don't waste it.
>If he'd been running against a centrist democrat it would have gone completely differently. >tfw no President Webb
Henry Gonzalez
they said it was impossible for Trump to win, like him or don't like him, hate or not, if hillary clinton was president, we would be importing refugees en masse, leaching off welfare, destroying cites, communities, attacking russia, fucking with Iran and the middle east, the same shit as the arab spring she did when she was in the obongo reign of terror.
Carson Price
thanks bud
Juan Hernandez
He literally called out her retarded far right mentality though.
Jacob Howard
>Melechon has not advanced >Fillon has endorsed Macron
That stacks the deck a bit, I'd say. How would Le Pen turn this to her advantage, if such was possible at all?
Mason Gutierrez
Its France. Give it till Tuesday and some sand nigger will mow down 20 people in a Little Debbie Snackcake truck, or get into another full auto gun fight with Police in the middle of Paris.
Sand niggers are dumb as fuck, they're already out in the streets smashing shit because Le Pen advanced to Round 2.
About a half hour ago when the guy was walking to the main protest, a bunch of people were smashing cars and stores on the side streets.
Let them riot, its Sunday night, the Le Pen working class has work tomorrow, and when they have to deal with having their shops smashed and the traffic caused by the clean ups, it'll push more voters over to the right.
AntiFa will do what AntiFa does best. Piss people off with their stupid shit.
Juan James
I agree with you, strongly. I don't think she'll win. But this victory today sent a message. They have to moderate their fucking shit, or things like Le Pen gets real power.
Blake Hernandez
It could still be seen as a small victory that the right has clearly won the election. That's how I looked at the Dutch elections
Cooper Hill
I'm gonna need to post this, for all the idots lurking here
IT DOESN'T FUCKING MATTER YOU GODDAMN TWATS > > > >
1 LE PAN AND MACRON BOTH ADVANCE 2 ALL VOTERS BESIDE FOR LEPEN SWITCH TO MACRON 3 LE PEN GETS ABSOLUTELY DESTROYED IN MAY (Round 2)
FRANCE IS LOST
Robert Thomas
Very good analysis. Thanks mate.
Jacob Perry
I felt that way about Trump, only because you can get a feeling in the air if you live here. I don't live in France so I can't tell, but I'm not getting that sense from french anons. Although they tend to be rather pessimistic generally.
Brandon Hill
>A >FUCKING >PUTINBOT hahahahahaha what a fucking faggot have you ever been in actual russia? have you ever seen their people, their country and how pathetic it is? retard
Jason Evans
Not necessarily at all. Give it a few decades and France will be like the US, and right wingers will face a struggle at the polls and be regarded as beyond the pale by an increasingly hostile (((diverse))) electorate as well as the (((media, academia))) etc
Parker Evans
Its amazing how left wing parties are still such a major force in a country like France.... Frenchies literally get killed in their own capital by the hundreds and still vote for people like Macron... In a sane country Le Pen would cruise to victory with 88% of the vote... Frenchies literally worse than the swedish manlets
Christopher Torres
If it's so simple, why don't you do it, Amerifat?
Evan Cook
Great post
There is hope
Caleb Bennett
AHMEDS, PLEASE
now is the time to strike
Henry Bailey
go grab a baguette and shove it up your ass. You fucking cuck
Clinton is a centrist democrat though. She''s as centrist as it gets.
Thomas Foster
Muslims are 5% of the electorate, combine their vote with 1/3 of women and 1/4 of men (back of a handkerchief calculation here) and you're talking about 35% of voters right there.
In a few decades that Muslim number will be more like 10% of the electorate.
And I didn't even include the blacks.
Cameron Murphy
...
Elijah Hill
Who really gives a fuck. Europe is done either way. Le pen would just give false hope. Actually, the earth is done.
Gavin Cooper
Another argument in favor of nuking Paris (and Montreal while we're at it).
Jaxson Diaz
Clinton would be considered far-right in most if not all western-european countries.
Jonathan Johnson
These are only the early figures. Early figures looked good for Clinton. Exit polls had Britain remaining in the EU. It's all still to play for. Though the French are still cucks.
Brayden Foster
This is a retarded maymay mainly because conditions in the US are so different from Europe that no direct comparison can be reasonably made
Aaron Morris
it fucking is and you know it
Cameron Watson
>burger McEducation there's still other half of uncucked europe tyrone
Joseph Moore
see
Grayson King
So when are the actual results coming in?
Parker Sullivan
>Thinking >Developed >Spain
Pick one and only one
Christopher Hall
Keep pushing that narrative, it's been working so well for you guys so far