In spite of the fact that Macron has an absolutely incredible lead over Le Pen in the polls...

In spite of the fact that Macron has an absolutely incredible lead over Le Pen in the polls, the betting market PredictIt still places him at only 84 cents on the dollar.
Is there any reason why I should not put some money on Macron winning the election?
I am not interested in hearing about who would be the superior leader, I am only interested in evidence that Le Pen genuinely stands a chance and deserves her odds of winning.

>in the (((polls)))

It's always about money with you, isn't it?

Show me an election that had a 20 point swing in polls within 6 days

This is europe leaf, our journos take their job a bit more seriusly

So the Brexit polls were not european?

Bumping since no one has convinced me

10*

The chances are that some muslim goes full allahakbar again with his truck or something major. And that is quite possible.

Difference of 20
Sure, that'd swing the election. But within the next week? Not that likely in my opinion.

But you only need to get 10 extra percentage points. If she closed this down a bit, she could definitely win because of abstention and blank votes.

Convincing 10 percent of the French population that is voting for Macron to totally change allegiances to Le Pen is much harder than you are letting on. I still haven't seen a poll that has been off with a 20 point difference in recent history.

Macron only got 24%, and Le Pen 22%. You need to convince the other 54%.

Recent polls show Macron being ahead by around 60-40. Almost every other person in the other 54% has endorsed Macron or refused to support Le Pen.

No, most people in those 54% are abstaining. This is how democracies work now: getting your base to be faithful and convincing others to vote for you to avoid the other candidate or to simply stay home.

Don't listen to the idiotic redditors. I can guarantee you that about 90% of the "LE PEN WILL WIN!!! PRAISE KEK XDD" faggots are underaged redditors who have no idea what they're talking about. Just go to their /le pen general/ and you'll see for yourself.

Macron will win.

He lost 6 points before the announcement of Le Pen's stepping down as FN leader and her alliance with Dupont to be her PM. The new manifesto also targets elderly voters who voted for Fillon in large numbers.

Le Pen absolutely humiliated Macron the other day in his own hometown. The only way he hit back today was to attend a Muslim memorial to a muslim man that drowned after being thrown into the river by some FN members in 1995 during a Paris rally. A day where traditionally political leaders pay tribute to Saint Joan of Arc. He paid tribute to Muslims.

Says it all.

You would have cleaned up if you'd bet on Trump. I did!

PI has off pricing for Le Pen vs all other European sites. It is an American audience and many favor Le Pen there. I am an active user there and many people ask this same question.

5% withdraw fee 10% earnings fee and 30 days to withdraw if you're new, max $850 per bracket.

Ok cool. the difference in numbers in the polls between Trump and Clinton is way smaller than Macron and Le Pen. Why should I take your word here?
Proof?
And those 6 points aren't nearly enough to make a difference, he has to lose 6 points a few more times.

So is PI a good investment in your opinion?

There will be a debate between the two candidates on wednesday.
I don't believe in debates having the power to have that much of an impact but who knows.

The recent modification of her program on the Euro might change the figures a bit too.

As a FN voter I'd say she has her chance but a really slim one.

You must be retarded or in a coma throughout 2015-2016