Here Comes the Leaf Collapse

If you were around here last month, we had a very long conversation about the future collapse of the Canadian housing market.

Replies were divided into two groups...

1. Yep, it's going to crash, we don't need no water let the MF'er burn.

2. You're crazy, prices will always go up. You can't build more land. 2 million for 900 sq ft is a reasonable price.

Fast forward one month, and the numbers are starting to come in and it's not good.

... listings up 47% = everyone in a rush to sell
... sales down 16% = no one wants to buy
... people walking away from listings = people are worried
... no one showing up to open houses = the party is over.

I'll repeat what I said last month... anyone who watched the American crash live learned to recognize the signs. Canada is fucked.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-24/toronto-bidding-wars-turn-to-homebuyers-remorse-as-market-slows

Other urls found in this thread:

betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/vancouver-mortgages-are-rapidly-deteriorating-in-quality/
theprovince.com/news/local news/fraser valley board warns offshore clients seeking misuse/13395018/story.html
thestar.com/business/real_estate/2017/05/23/most-canadians-would-have-trouble-with-10-per-cent-hike-in-mortgage-payments-poll.html
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

cant wait for the crash, then i'll actually be able to afford a house

Pool some cash, you'll be amazed at the deals that you will see.

Here in America, here's roughly what happened...

1. Market collapses
2. A bunch of people go BK or stop making payments so they lose the home
3. Banks suddenly have a glut of houses.
4. They don't want them, because they have to maintain them and cut the grass until they can sell them.
5. No one is buying, each month the inventory is going up.

So what happens? The bank starts making deals.

6. The first homes sell for whatever the prior owner owed on them, so they can break even.

7. Then prices continue to collapse, and the bank starts worrying, so they sell the homes for whatever people are willing to pay.

If it's like the US, expect discounts of between 50-60%, depending on your timing.

not a happening
market cooling, not collapsing

ive got around 30k in us dollars and 20k CAD

im hoping to grab at least 2 houses during the crash

Adding to the problem... lenders are starting to bottom-feed on loans.

All of the quality buyers have gone, so they're looking to riskier buyers to keep the train rolling:

betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/vancouver-mortgages-are-rapidly-deteriorating-in-quality/

/pol predicted this. check the archives

Be patient. Housing markets take years to bottom.

Had a buddy buy a house for $13,000 cash that had sold for $210,000 only two years earlier.

Not always. In the US, the whole process was done in about 1.5 years.

wait until the price of a blowjob hits $10 in southern ontario, then buy.

the ideal time to buy property is always around when the low-end blowjob equals the cost of a gram of weed, in any given area.

im hoping the start of the Canadian Housing Happening (CHH for short) will be Q4 2017 or mid 2018 and to have a house or two by 2021

Is this finally the time the leaf falls off the tree. This means the Day of Rake is soon to follow

When is the next one happening here?

i can get ounces delivered to my door for less than $4/gram.

That's how bubbles work.

The people buying are willing to over-pay. Not because they think the home is worth that much, but because they think that SOMEONE ELSE will be willing to pay more in the future.

And, because of this, they're willing to over-extend themselves with their loans, since they think that they can get out of the home quickly if need be.

All of this is fine as long as the price is going up, but not so great when prices begin to drop...

1. Home is suddenly worth 1/2 of what you paid.

2. Bank still expects you to pay back a loan for what is now 2x the "value" of the home.

3. Stay in the home and you never break even. You become a bitter old man.

4. Walk away from the home and your credit is screwed forever

5. You can't sell the home, because no one is buying and because you're so underwater the bank won't approve it (because you won't be able to make up the difference on your loan)

you buy in bulk did i describe bulk prices to you?

i can't wait to watch you fuckers suffer. i've already got my shorts lined up.

>her dick

Good question. It will happen again, but I'm not sure if it will be a rapid decline or a gradual one.

We know that the student debt bubble is going to effect the whole economy in the long run.

Youngers will be paying back debt instead of buying homes and new cars.

US home prices are already out of control again; Cali especially but everywhere. The center can't hold with these prices.

how much is a blowjob? and no, i am not interested. keep your dirty leaf mouth away from me

Realistically could canadian market crash be the pin that pops our market bubble that forces government to call in on those student loans to pop that bubble.

depends, downtown crack whore or 7/10 tinder slut?

it's more likely that Canada will just start importing more refugees and fill the foreclosed houses with them. it's a win-win for everybody involved. you can't lose when you invest in diversity

>but I'm not sure if it will be a rapid decline or a gradual one.

if interest rates are raised, combine that with the realization that these houses ain't actuallygoing up in value $750 per day and then throw in Home Capital collapsing in June. It's gonna be a fun summer.

bus station skank

Of course everyone wants to sell. Fucking property values are through the roof.
Imagine you had bought a home 10 years ago. Probably worth 10 times what you got it for and there are people willing to pay for it.
GTFO while its hot.

Canadabros with money: Buy very nice apartment buildings in very desirable areas ASAP.

You will not believe what the rents will skyrocket to.

I'm going to Canada to stay for a day or two before flying to England, should I be worried?

>Imply most of Canada isn't ecstatic that cityfags are going to get fucked raw

Fuck Canada

I don't know how to feel about this. I live in an old, small Condo that hasn't increased in value all that much since I bought it years ago. Probably because I'm surrounded by 300,000 luxury condos.

I live in Montreal

is this just Toronto or other cities too? Quebec?

my theory is Justine will demand you take in millions of refugees, and then the government will print the rent money to prop the market... until it really crashes along with the government and society.

There's not going to be fucking riots or civil war you idiot.
Just a lot of suicides.

>300,000 luxury condos.
$300,000

Maintain your sovereignty for more than a couple decades at a time, and maybe people will value your opinion.

There are a few problems with that....

1. Your average refugee can't afford to spend $2 million (CAD) for a 1500 square foot home.

2. Those who CAN afford it already have bought and are now coming up against Canadian money laundering laws:

theprovince.com/news/local news/fraser valley board warns offshore clients seeking misuse/13395018/story.html


In the US, the Fed rate being kept artificially low has been part of the problem.

Not to mention... last time things crashed they lowered the rate to boost the economy. With rates still hanging around zero, they no longer have that tool if the next crash hits.

>is this just Toronto or other cities too? Quebec?

Everywhere.

The government and Big 6 banks are covering up how bad things are. Full on perception management. And it looks like there is going to be a huge bailout in oder to save 320k pensions that are tied up in Home Capital as a result of a corruption scandal.

Jesus. $300,000 in Montreal? Fuck me, in Waterloo they're anywhere from $250-$450. I guess the hammer falls hardest in southern Ontario.

If your condo is worth that you could sell it and buy like three houses once the market bottoms out.

Good, I can't wait for housing to crash and wipe out all the illicit money the Chinese stashed away in real estate.

How much did the Japanese lose in the 90s? I want the Chinese to lose even more.

Yeah. Someone might trick you into signing a 2,000,00 mortgage on a teardown lot if you aren't careful. This mostly happens in cities so just stay away from downtown or Jewy looking neighborhoods

This listing should give you an idea of how big the Canadian bubble is..

That sounds amazing. Think I'll visit Camada to watch the day of the rake unfolding.

Good bants for once, Leaf

>666

Devlish truth

interesting, I remember our market crash had a few areas that were affected faster or slower. are you already printing money to prop up the market? how bad do you think the empty home surplus is?

to what idiot lengths will the leaf go?

Looks like I'm gonna put off buying a house now.

It was real interesting watching multimillionaires off themselves for being worth $10m instead of $25m here

3/4 of Canadians would default on their mortgages if their payments go up 10%

Interest rates are due to go up soon...
>thestar.com/business/real_estate/2017/05/23/most-canadians-would-have-trouble-with-10-per-cent-hike-in-mortgage-payments-poll.html

Can I just buy the plot and build my own? ffs even the pain in the ass of complying with all the building ordinances would be worth it.

>Rake Unfolding Day
Rakes don't fold, we just hang them in the garage.

Jesus fucking christ, thank God I'm only in Canada for a day before going to bongistan.

By the way just a question, this has been discussed a lot on Sup Forums and things seem to be unfolding exactly like many people said it would, are people just that perceptive or are their lakes from banks and loaners on here?

That price is because of the plot. The house likely reduces the value as it's a piece of shit

doesn't matter if the refugee can't afford it, the Canadian government will print money to do it. I'm wondering how deep they'll dig the hole this way.

AMERICA HERE I COME!

Bubble, bubble,
Burst! Give trouble.

>are you already printing money to prop up the market?

nigga this month leafs were already doing the 'mystery buyer' routine pretending some mystery man will bailout home capital.

no joke. The government has probably primed and promised bailouts. the taxpayer is going to eat the loss, all of it.

chinese millionaires use the property market as a big money laundering operation. they just trade worthless plots of land between each other. that's what this is.

THE CHINKS ARE WAITING FOR IT TO BOTTOM THEN BUY ALL OF CANADA

AN OVERHEATED CANADIAN REAL ESTATE MARKET IS STILL A SAFER INVESTMENT THAN THE SHITHOLE OF CHINA

it'd cost around $20 + a 80% chance of herpes

bro what do you mean? why would the refugees have to afford anything? the taxpayers will gladly do so because of the immense benefit this added diversity will bring.

>By the way just a question, this has been discussed a lot on Sup Forums and things seem to be unfolding exactly like many people said it would, are people just that perceptive or are their lakes from banks and loaners on here?

nigga we got people here with 140+ iq financial people making frog memes and starting finance threads for days.

Thank all our wealthy Chinese students and Toronto-based investors. Kitchener is seeing the most rapidly increasing rental rates in the whole country.

Is there even a point to buying when mortgage rates are low if rate increases later on can retroactively affect your mortgage payment?

It seems like a trap to get people into a budget in they can just barely afford so they can get played later on down the line when the market adjusts.

but.. dude weed.... yeah I can't see them raising taxes all that much either. I'm not 100% on the canuck govt, how fast can they pass laws to fake raising more money?

how does this effect the Chinese buying up everything? it always felt like money laundering from what I've read.

So wait chinks buy foreign property to basically hide their income or something?

DAY OF THE RAKE

i'd say that's about the standard rate these days (the cash, not the herpes)

Once you own it, I'm sure you can. But as far as this property goes, keep in mind...

1. It has no land. The house takes up almost the entire property.

2. The homes around it look to be of the same high quality as this.

3. You're nuts if you're willing to pay $2 million for just a lot (not to mention the cost of the teardown)


FYI: the bubble in California is just as bad. This 378 sq foot dream home is listed for $179,000

Let it fall, it's about time.

The CMHC is overleveraged, and that exposes the banks. They've already stopped giving mortgages to anyone that doesn't qualify for an interest rate that's double what it is now. They've already made it so the first time homebuyer's 5% down deal only applies to the first 500k.

All of this basically means that borrowing cheap money is now only available to the wealthiest. Do we want a real-life game of Monopoly to play out? Let it crash. Let the greedy speculators take a haircut.

I'm sure they'll cookup some fuckery though because the boomers are counting on their real estate holding value to finance their sunset years.

I want to see pain and difficult sacrifices made at the upper levels of the pyramid, because that's exactly who is responsible for this.

I want people to lose their investment properties. You know, the ones where they were counting on wage slaves to pay them off with inflated rents so they could live in comfort without contributing to society? Yeah I wanna see those people have to buck up

>how does this effect the Chinese buying up everything?

It doesn't.

Canadian investment advisers don't even have to tell the truth to their clients. You can tell them to do something that's bad for them and good for you. No joke. Canada is a fucking free for all.

Hopefully this boils over into the American market its getting just as bad as 2008 again.

This whole idea that houses are some big financial nest egg that will always appreciate has always driven me bonkers. No other fucking product on the planet works like this and the kike that though of this needs a bullet to the head as well as all the dumb plebs who bought into it.

My parents bought their Vancouver house in 1982 for $66,000, today they'd probably get 1.5 million if they sold it. They're both of the opinion that it's only going to keep going up, and that eventually I'll have a 2+ million dollar inherited house. I've told them it's not likely, and it'll probably be more like a 6 or 700,000 dollar house by then, but they call me dumb and uninformed.

I hope they're right, desu.

That probably includes 10 acres of waterfront land.

When this crashes, you'll tell people you knew it would happen. And, when the next bubble happens, you will be the first to spot it.

It isn't that we're that much smarter than anyone else, it's just that we have longer memories.

yah it's gonna be big, i'm hoping the banks don't go into negative interest rates.

Hope they lose it all.
Hope you have cash to capitalize on this. I know a lot of people who made fortunes during our collapse.
One had a flooring business, did the flooring for the house while the bubble was growing, then used the profits to buy a dickload of properties. Rents them out now and plays poker with $10k but ins.

>Is there even a point to buying when mortgage rates are low if rate increases later on can retroactively affect your mortgage payment?
No. Canadians are cucks and will let bankers fuck them every which way. When this bubble eventually pops the banks will just get bailed out by the tax payers even though the banks are still posting record profits. Q2 profits this year are up around 10% for most of the big 6 banks and those kikes will keep the profit while we all share the eventual loss.

I blame HGTV.

>6996

It'll be less than that...

checked, this is true. the entire refugee/migrant/immigration scheme across the west is all about filling in the new ranks of the ponzi scheme. it's all about money vreation through debt creation, kicking the can down the road to all the people who put on a suit and contribute nothing to society can make their statements look good for another quarter. Most of the west is leveraged to the tits with debt and unwilling to take on more. Hence the migrants, who, if they show up with 0$, are richer than the average indebted Canadian. As long as they're eager and gullible they can be heaped with more debt. Hell, we'll even print it for them!

POOF! NEW MONEY!

This has all happened before, most recently in 2008 in the US. And it will all happen again

I wouldn't even pay $10,000...

smart birb

Adding to this: In Canada you can't file bankruptcy to default on a housing loan, if I understand the rules correctly. And the bank can come after you for the money at any time.

>No other fucking product on the planet works like this and the kike that though of this needs a bullet to the head as well as all the dumb plebs who bought into it.

Supply and demand. It's very difficult and cost-intensive to make new livable spaces that people actually want to live in. You either sacrifice square footage or distance from amenities, and eventually you run out of space altogether. The only real solution is for people to start dying.

Nope. But it does have a ghetto party store next door, and that's just as good as being on the ocean, right?

Walking away is the best option. Credit can recover but if you keep paying that money is gone. And this is the worst outcome for the banks, they can have the house and the bill for the loss. Fuck em', they should have been smarter than that to loan a couple million on a

The banks just made record profit. When will the collapse happen pol? 2020? 2024?

I wonder if the canadian bubble could cause other foreign markets to crash as well, for instance the australian housing market is in a huge bubble.

I judge the CA market based on Richmond. If the homes in the bad neighborhoods there are over $80k it's inflated as fuck.

Or stop illegals and migrants from coming in.

It might exacerbate it, as investors move their holdings from one market to another.

If you leafs can pop theirs before yours pops, some money will flee to canada instead and you'll get to trip the lite fantastische for a tiny bit longer.

BUT THEN WHO WILL BUY THE MORTGAGES AND PAY PMI??????

I think you underestimate the stupidity of the Canadian government. They will hand the foreclosed houses out like candy to all the poor homeless refugees and house 4 to a house and totally tank the surrounding home value further

>Not realising that another real estate bubble collapsing is a vindication of every economic theory Sup Forums hates

It could happen anytime between now and 2019

Which is going to make matters worse. Now, they’re out of their home, they have to keep paying on it, and they can’t afford to buy anther home.

What are you talking about?

go on