What will the future swing states be? Pic related shows the states won with less than 5% victory margins in 2016.
While Maine, Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Ohio moved notably to the right, Hillary actually made up some ground in Texas and Arizona.
Will the midwest continue to redden while the southwest becomes more blue? Texas could be blue within three election cycles.
If NV had ID laws I wonder if they would stay blue.
PA will remain a swing state. Going red last time around almost ensures a big salty blue push back, or at least targeting.
A three point swing in Trump's direction in 2020 actually gives him Minnesota, NH, and Maine-at-large. PA should be fine. Don't know if Pence would win it in 2024 though
we'll go blue next cycle.
t. Pennsylvania
Why? Disappointed with Trump in the first few months?
2016 was kind of a unique situation for PA. I don't know that we'd see a replay. Unless Trump winds up really sucking, he should retain most or all of his voterbase. But unless D screws up hard and has their voter base defecting or sitting it out again then it won't be hard to tip ti blue in 2020.
At this juncture, I'm not sure what Trump could do to pick up more cross-party voters. He kind of has his hands tied dealing with more important things at the moment, but if in the long run he manages to woo more Bernie-type democrats with rustbelt promises, capability of easing the major financial correction that will probably happen by 2020, or other such heroic displays I suppose might give him a chance.
We'll also be going blue.
t. North Carolina
How can you tell already?
Fuck no it wouldn't. Union ballot-stuffing scams in Vegas is what turns that state. Same way Dirty Harry Reid kept his job.
It's hard to get a local reading on Trump sentiment, but my general sense is that the vast majority of his support base has not given up hope, and is willing to forgive some of the more questionable bits like the tomahawk attack in Syria if things go well in the long run.
Unless there are structural changes like factoring out whatever amount of fraud there was (I'm pretty sure Trump won by quite a bit more than the official numbers in PA -- just doesn't add up), or some other such thing, then the question is probably going to be much more about capturing more of the default-blue vote than worrying about his base. If the democrats continue to go extra crazy, this could be easier than it seems. There are a tremendous amount of old fashioned common sense democrats here.
Assuming Trump doesn't turn out to be a giant mistake, I would suggest a focus on turning more seats here red, or keeping them red, and making a bit of a public show of it. And I'm not saying that as a republican or because I like republicans at all. But the more that turns the party toward Trump and away from least-worst people (Pat Toomie, for instance, is tolerated but not liked) should be helpful.
Interesting perspective, but it's hard to see the political future 3 years out. It also depends on how the DNC civil war shapes up and who gets nominated in 2020.
Oh that makes sense.
Well, again, not that I'm pro-republican, but it just makes plain sense to expose the outrageous corruption in the government and Clinton machine. That was a yuge selling point for the Trump campaign. If that does happen, it would do much to discredit whoever Trump will be running against, or at least force the democrats to run somebody worth voting for.
Bernie was pretty huge here. He would have taken PA by storm. Depending on who he were up against, I would have even given him a thought, even though I don't particularly think he'd have been a "good" pick.
The Dems will bus blacks down from Harlem if need be to get PA back after how hard they pushed the narrative that it can never flip red again before getting blown out by the Amish.
Colorado is not a swing state. its solid blue since the coasties have all moved here and there's a growing mexican population, and plenty of illegals to boot
We will have the same picture as last election. Meaning
Solidish Blue States
>Virginia
>Main (large district)
>New Mexico
>Colorado
Leaning Blue States
>Nevada
>Minnesota
Swing States
>Florida
>New Hampshire
>Pennsylvania
>Michigan
>Wisconsin
Leaning Red States
>North Carolina
>Iowa
Solidish Red States
>Indiana
>Georgia
>Arizona
>Ohio
All other states should be obvious
Move Arizona to lean red and that's accurate
We could help you if you make us state ;)
>spics that can barely speak english
No thanks, we would have just made all illegals citizens and opened the border with Mexico if we wanted that.
But we can already cross interstate without any problems.
Besides are you implying there are not other states with a secondary language?
After a bit of thought there are some other changes I'd like to add there based on migration trends:
Move Georgia into leans red territory and NC into tossup. Massive migration of younger generations to SC, FLA, GA and NC will move them blue sooner rather than later, at the expense of the rust belt states, which is why I say put Iowa solidish red and Wisconsin as leans red, as well as Minnesota a tossup. Finally, I think you need to add a few more states into play here. Texas for one is trending blue. I'd put it at leans red at worst for the GOP and solidish red at best. Maine should also be tossup given the migration patterns out of the Northeast, which leads me to also put Connecticut and Illinois in solidish blue territory. Arizona also goes to tossup tbqh, given how close it is and the migration.
PAY DENBTS
If Detroit pays it.
But you don't have representatives and senators yet. If you get them, that'll be 3 guaranteed Democrats in Congress and 3 deep blue electoral votes.
Thats bullshit. Puerto Rico is more than 76% christian/catholic. Any southern republican bible thumper can win here easily.
So is Mexico.
And Mexico doesnt have a republican or democratic party. What's your point?
Texas is a meme. It's done for.
RIP you secessionist bastards.
It would be straight democrat if it ever joined the US, along with a whole host of other problems.
I think my state will go back to being blue.
It wouldn't. Like I explained, latinos in general are not very progressive. A democrat as they stand now would never win here unless he was a center-right democrat.
As to problems, its really less for you. Even if you are a stormfag scumbag. Right now we can move within states without any problems. If we were a state, most puertorricans that emigrate would return here. Plus, you can sell Puerto Rico as a nice destination for beaners to come instead of pestering mainland states. All you would have to do is that for condition of statehood, Puerto Rico can reduce its debt to at least 25%. Since its in the Caribbean its on a strategic position for business and you can keep an eye on Cuba.
Everybody wins. You get less latinos and we keep things more or less the same here.
>gibs
On a much lesser level than most southern states. Things are much cheaper here.
Would your country's cost of living be completely fucked if you became a state? Imagine all the burgers who slink down there for low cost of living. Then vote for gibs haha. But seriously, I am asking how it would affect you financially.
MASSIVE inflation though. Colorado Springs is growing very rapidly and is staunchly conservative. Denver housing prices will soon stem the tide of incoming dems, it'll be almost expensive as a coastal city soon, next big liberal migration to a red state might, unfortunately, be Montana or Wyoming. Lots of Denver Dems fleeing for Jackson and Billings.
If you burgers dont fuck it up twith stupids laws (like minimum wage) and ease regulations here (at least to compete fairly with other caribbean neighbors) then it won't affect in a negative way.
I always thought it would be good for more states to have Colorado-style weed laws. Seems like it's not good for demographics to be such a hot destination for stoners.
Remove the voting illegals and most of the map is red. Problem solved.
Doesn't matter, Trump will inevitably lose to the candidate the Democrats put up.
OF COURSE WE WOULD AHAHAHAHAHAHA DONT DO IT
Seriously mang, you open up them borders and bleeding hearts will be down there in an instant messing yo shit up. Especially health care, which I've heard is much cheaper.
Fixing the voting system should be a priority. And I've never talked to anybody from any party, pro-Trump, anti-Trump, who doesn't want to be able to trust the system.
Only mentally ill people who equate it with racism disagree.
In your opinion, what states will be affected least or much later on? I want to move somewhere that's over 95% white. Not just the town, but the county and surrounding counties. When I go anywhere except a major city to use the airport, I want it to be nearly only white people. I have accepted I must go somewhere colder and probably higher elevation where people have to do a little more work to be comfortable. I don't think I mind a mormon area, because I'm not very social anyway. I just want people to not be liberal degenerate freaks or animalistic shitskins.
California has the grass roots of a republican uprising. They did 30% for Trump and I know a lot of MAGAs who didn't vote.
If the Repubs really wanted to they could swing California.
Yes but that would only bring business. That's not a negative for us, although its not like gringos aren't doing that right now. Its called medical tourism. We receive a good quantity of burgers that come here to get procedures done, as well as other virgin islands.
That doesn't change with statehood.
Of course it should. Deport illegals, voter id, no more welfare. 3 pieces of legislation and in 10 years we will have America back.
We'll always need some form of social safety net, and in particular the bread line cards will be important to keep from social disorder (if we think we can avoid that) but otherwise
FUND IT
>Like I explained, latinos in general are not very progressive.
He says as Latinos have become another brick and mortar bloc for the Democrats.
Only if the D is black.
>Unless Trump winds up really sucking, he should retain most or all of his voterbase.
The problem is not Trump retaining his voterbase, this is a given really. The issue is Democrat turnout, especially among millenials/blacks, was very low in 2016. Trump only gained a few 10,000-20,000 votes in each state vs. Romney 2012, while Hillary lost 100,000-300,000 votes vs. Obama 2012.
Democrat turnout will be a big issue, unless Trump can turn out or convert more whites to his side. Our elections are becoming more and more clear cut among racial lines / age lines, ever since 2000.
Things like the Soros machine need to be exposed and taken apart anyway. Is that the best the democrats have to offer? Did it ever help the minorities beyond gibs? Will Trump be able to do a better job for them?
Trump/Romney and Hillary/Obama aren't very good analogies in my opinion, even though you would want to look at such things in a statistical analysis. But Trump won and Hillary lost on the fundamentals, to borrow a financial terminology.
Texas and georgia are going to be compatible at one point in the future. It's inevitable with the influx of hispanics
>Will the midwest continue to redden while the southwest becomes more blue? Texas could be blue within three election cycles.
Not yet. Check the totals.
Trump was made good grounds in OH, IA and NC where I believe he'll easily win in 2020.
FL and WI are also looking increasingly Republican.
AZ is slowly turning blue but not before 2024. PA and MI are both toss-ups.
Unlikely.
IA/MN/WI/OH/PA will be all hard red before GA turns blue. AZ and NV are turning blue earlier. FL and NC still have enough whites and white influx to easily become red states.
Texas is not turning blue before 2036 or later based on current models.
That's because latinos in the mainland don't care about nationalism, or values. They just care about gibs. Puertorrican included sadly.
But in the island is different, we're not gonna vote for a progressive that is gonna screw us up worst with taxes, plus working people already hate welfare people enough to keep maintaining them.
We were extremely fortunate we managed to win 2016 but idk how much more we can win. It rly depends a lot on the 2018 election but I think that was our last stand and 2020 can't be won.
Colorado is lean blue now. Just there and heard all sorts of Dems whining about muh trump and shit.
Fuck off concern troll.
2018 we basically cannot lose control of the House nor the Senate.
2020 we can easily win again due to white movement to the Republican party (that started in 2014 btw, not 2016) and the decreased black turnout.
>dont get more than 60 seats in senate
>nothing gets done
>screw the establishment
A lot of shit (like the budget etc) can be done without even needing 60 votes and in the worst case, they can easily abolish the filibuster and just rush their laws. 2018 looks very, very favourable to Republicans so I think they may even get their 60 votes.
Ds can still continue their current trajectory of meltdown, though. They're going to go hard for 2018 but at this rate they're going to fuck it up even if it's a fight.
I'd rate it above average Trump does 2 terms if he wants to unless something goes really crazy. And by really crazy I mean more than just the crazy we can expect by 2018 or so when the various tensions are already built and the system is ready to start pulling plugs.
which states are voting and whats the political climate like in them?
How close was Cali?
Maine is the only state that's even close to 95% white.
Outside Portland or college towns it's near 100% white, but the churches and democrats are flooding portland with Somalis to fuck up the demographics permanently
Yeah but how is any of that going to solve the problem of republicans not having a god damn spine?
Maine is the only state that's even close to 95% white.
Outside Portland or college towns it's near 100% white, but the churches and democrats are flooding portland with Somalis to fuck up the demographics permanently..
Senate:
FL, WI, MT, ND, AZ, MO, ID, OH, WV: Controlled by Republicans, probable Republican win in most of them.
Only seat we could lose is Nevada.
Virginia was close to turning red this election, they're not a safe blue.
They are getting one. Slowly, but surely.
Won't be enough to turn you into a non-white state just yet.
House. See pic related. How can Republicans lose? Democrats would have to flip everything.
>Nevada... moved notably to the right
A return to normalcy. We were super red until a massive wave of Californians moved in during the 90's
House is def not a problem but I worry for the senate. There are also some troublesome senators (McCain etc)
McCain is not up for reelection and he votes mostly party line anyway.
The other guy is a cuckservative too so I don't really worry about him either.
There is not a realistic chance that Trump does 2 terms.
The GOP has to be churning out better fucking representatives for their presidential candidacy. If not, Democrats will crush them. Trump is historically one of the most disapproved presidents...ever. He barely won the last election against Hilary Clinton, and probably only won because of his anti-establishment shtick from displaced Bernie voters.
>There is not a realistic chance that Trump does 2 terms.
The chances are better that he wins than that he does not win.
>The GOP has to be churning out better fucking representatives for their presidential candidacy. If not, Democrats will crush them.
Trump proved to be a viable president who turns out exactly the right people in the right places and even the voters he turned off are coming back slowly (see GA06).
>Trump is historically one of the most disapproved presidents...ever.
Not ever. And considering his approval among likely voters is basically split, he does have extremely good chances). Also, approval ratings don't mean shit when Obama lost practically everything (House, Senate, Govships) when he was president.
>He barely won the last election against Hilary Clinton, and probably only won because of his anti-establishment shtick from displaced Bernie voters.
That was not barely at all. Higher margin in Florida than Bush in both times, better margins in NC than Romney, won bigly in WI, PA and slightly in MI.
I rate his chances 70%.
who will the dems likely put up in 2020? I heard something about someone from Obama's cabinet
Much depends on how much both parties continue meltdown trajectory and what the world looks like in 2020. I predict a wild ride.
But if Trump is still alive, pulls it out, and goes for another term, I stand by my prediction. I will say I won't be surprised if he steps aside if a real republican replacement emerges and hands it over. But at this point the party is in such well-deserved disarray that it's difficult to imagine how that might shape up. I have always imagined that one possible outcome is basically break down destruction of the republicans.
That's a good question. Basically anyone who will run against Trump will receive a higher approval than him initially but still has extremely high chances to lose due to where the voters live and how niggers turn out. If they don't run Obama again (they can't), they won't stand a chance.
>Hillary actually made up some ground in Texas and Arizona.
Wait til that wall goes up and we deport the shitskins and see what happens.
>But at this point the party is in such well-deserved disarray that it's difficult to imagine how that might shape up. I have always imagined that one possible outcome is basically break down destruction of the republicans.
People have been saying how the "Republicans are in disarray" when it absolutely isn't true. Sure, they don't like Trump, but they still do what he tells them to as long as he brings them wins (which he does, see the last 4 races). And as of now, Republicans also have received the highest donations since a long while. They will not go against Trump and in exchange Trump allows them to pass some of their shit which their donors pay them to.
Anyone who actually believes the Republicans are soul-searching or that the Democrats will actually allow the socialists to take over is mentally challenged.
Hillary only received an additional 300k voters (since 2008) compared to Trump's 200k so that's why the margin fell from 12 to 9%. But Texas is still far away from turning blue since Trump did win by more than 800k votes.
I don't see Republican soul-searching or a big lack in support for the party (at least not just yet) but everybody I've spoken to is pretty quick to observe that Trump is having to fight his own party. Don't forget how big a row there was over cuckservatives during the campaign. They're fighting tooth and nail to keep their agenda going.
The Trotskyites never give up.
>I don't see Republican soul-searching or a big lack in support for the party (at least not just yet) but everybody I've spoken to is pretty quick to observe that Trump is having to fight his own party. Don't forget how big a row there was over cuckservatives during the campaign. They're fighting tooth and nail to keep their agenda going.
Cuckservatives are certainly playing a role in delaying Trump's stuff but I don't see them keeping this up for long. If they don't deliver by the end of 2017, they will be mercilessly primaried.
>be me
>live in NYC
>blue stronghold
>why even vote
Vote from the rooftops
Vote for the popular vote.
That what I did as a NYCfag
Good.
Hilldog only made ground in those places because "drumpf aint a true Christian Cuckservative, and i aint think he a man of gawd"
>they will be mercilessly primaried.
That's what I'm hoping for. I'd even consider registering as a republican to help.
A lot of them were pretty firm in wanting to throw it to Hillary rather than let Trump in back in the day, and it's been very interesting to see who has picked which camp when, who has tried to play both sides, etc. Ideally, they'll be smart enough to hang on to Trump for the time being, but who knows.
I was mildly surprised the powers that be didn't just sort of go along with Trump as a bump in the road and then resume afterward. There are probably reasons why not that I don't know about. But one of the important components is the "global political awakening" Zbigniew Brzezinski described. By 2018/2020, there will be even more people who are more politically sophisticated, and who won't be as likely to fall for the same old lines.
I expect part of the democrat strategy is to try to capitalize as hard as possible on the zombie hordes by continuing to double down on basically an alternate reality. But I think that's probably likely to break down before long as the system always eats itself and they need to use it for destabilization as much as for unification for votes.
tf does this mean
Once demographics change, even in the next few years, most swing states and even major red states will go blue. White people won Trump the election, but white people will become less and less relevant electorally.
We can't win this with votes. We need to go full fash
It's really too early to tell about Dem turnout for sure. Have to take into account that the Shock and Don effect might only last so long, and that their voters might be demoralized if the DNC never gets its act together. The harsher they go with the identity politics, the more people they are going to alienate. Less minorities voted for Hillary than Obama, and Trump's Latino vote share was like 7, 8% higher than Romney, despite Romney sucking their dicks.
Oh, that's right
Jew Yorkers aren't allowed to own guns
There literally is no point in voting Republican anyway. They are still kike-controlled and achieve nothing and make nothing better. They are fucking shit. Don't vote for any of them.
>That's what I'm hoping for. I'd even consider registering as a republican to help.
It doesn't hurt to register if you live in a swing or solid red district. If you live in a blue one, register as a Dem to vote in their primaries.
>I expect part of the democrat strategy is to try to capitalize as hard as possible on the zombie hordes by continuing to double down on basically an alternate reality. But I think that's probably likely to break down before long as the system always eats itself and they need to use it for destabilization as much as for unification for votes.
Democrats are nothing without positive messages. Obama brought it and he won handily, Clinton just hated on Trump and got crushed mercilessly. Unless they bring Obama back (they can't), they won't be winning any more races.
Work for a TBTF bank and you can get a permit.
I thought i lived far enough away in the suburbs from my city so that my vote would count. Tfw im still in a cucked county
I would have to give up valuable shitposting time to register. Might as well wait and see how the primaries begin to shape up.
I neglected to help primary Trump in because it was obvious by that point he had it locked up and I was busy.
NH is going red next election.
30,000 people voted for Gary Johnson. Trump lost by like 500 votes. A lot of people I know voted for GJ, but are now fully behind trump.
Only a few red states are really affected by demographic changes (AZ, TX, GA, FL, NC) and in NC and Florida, there are still more than enough whites (and Cubans) left to move to the right to form a solid red state, while in TX and GA, it all depends on the white, Hispanic and black vote. Whites voting 70-75% Republican, Hispanics 30-40% and blacks 20-25% is enough to keep states red for a very long time.
Doing good's work user. We need conservatives that care about immigration issues while not being religious nuts and we got that with Trump (and he even kept the religious nut voter base because they hate the Dems).
Hopefully.