The next big Middle Eastern conflict is a Arab-Kurdish civil war, isn't it?

The next big Middle Eastern conflict is a Arab-Kurdish civil war, isn't it?

Kurds should just be imported into Turkey and let the roachwars commence.

Based Syria and Iraq have already dealt with enough.

Nope. Syrian kurds will never be allies to Iraqi ones.

Perhaps in Turkey, though I doubt it would go anywhere unless there is a massive insurrection. As for Syria and Iraq, they are both incapable to being able to prevent the kurds from splitting off though for Iraq it will most likely trigger and Sunni v Shia civil war. Iran would probably be unaffected due to them being stable and this being able to respond to any Kurdish uprisings in their area effectively. In other words, it would just be a bunch of civil wars at best which is just the status quo.

Turkey is going to whine at NATO and then the US will stop supporting kurds. Easy for Assad since the kurds are completely useless

Assad is useless without Russia.

Syrian and Iraqi Kurds are divided by extreme political rifts. While they come from the same ethnic and cultural background, they are as divided as any other Arab tribe is.

Without a unified, Kurdish front, the Syrian Kurds most likely will fail to establish an independant state, although negotiations with the Assad government may yield them autonomy to prevent another costly armed conflict for an already ailing Syrian government.

As for the Iraqi Kurds, they are more than capable of not only defending their territory from the Iraqi government, but also holding onto contested areas like Kirkuk. The Iraqi government is far too inept and corrupt to fight a newly independent Iraqi Kurdistan as their power base relies on Shiite militias who will have a hard time being convinced to go fight in lands that aren't traditionally Shiite. They also wouldn't have the critical support of the US military and its logistics/airpower/intelligence branches who are spear heading the fight against ISIS in Iraq for a disorganized Iraqi Army.

The SAA may not be equipped to drive back the now powerful Kurds in Syria. They have received tremendous material assistance in their campaign against ISIS, including training and experience, both invaluable on the battlefield.

Assad's forces may not have the same kind of support that Russia grants them currently as well against a fight against the Kurds. For Russia, a political settlement between the regime and the Kurds is much more attractive than a new front against the Kurds.

It is the same issue with the Kurds and their support from the US, they likely will be dropped once ISIS is defeated and won't be supported if they go on an offensive against the Assad regime.

Mustard be?

Mainly between turks and kurds. Iraqi and syrian arab armies are too worn out to engage in combat with the kurds, I'd wager.

can't we just rename the middle-east to middle-earth?

just a quick reminder that the ypg forces aren't seeking to establish a kurdish state. like, really aren't. bunch of bonda-fide anti nationalists floating around there.

>being this much of a faggot

Russia is peanuts on the world scale

They are going to negotiate with the government and trade all the land and cities they've captured for Kurdish autonomy/recognition within the Syrian constitution if I had to guess.

Independence basically invites Turkey to come invade their asses, and while they could definitely give the Turks tremendous trouble, it would be extremely bloody and the Syrian government doesn't trust the Turks with land grabbing that much territory.

Saudi Civil War

Would that make the arabs hobbits?

So if hot war between Turks and Kurds start, who is gonna get the US support? Surely at this point americans will be forced to throw kurds under the bus since Turkey is in nato

Kurds are retarded. I hope Turkey kills them all.

Neither, since the Turks would be the aggressors in Syria thus nullifying article 5.

The US and Russia both will be using their diplomatic clout to try and find a diplomatic solution, neither power wants to see things going hot between the Kurds and the Turks, let alone the Kurds and the Syrian government.

Afghan War led to Iraq War, Iraq War led to Libyan Revolution, Libyan Revolution led to Syrian Civil War.

Now Syrian Civil War leads to Arab-Kurdish War, and finally culminating with an Israel-Iran War, officially kicking off WWIII.

Says the Russian in the thread.

He is right, there are massive political rifts between the Syrian and Iraqi Kurdish cantons. They aren't united or even on the same spectrum politically necessarily.

The Syrian cantons need the Iraqi Kurds much more than the Iraqi Kurds need the Syrian ones, and would be more than willing to sell them out for their own independence.

Iranian-kurd reporting in, yes.

honestly they've ended up far more committed to the political platform than kurdish freedom in particular. you're probably more or less right about what they're angling for in the peace though. some kind of agreement for a tev-dem borne autonomy

Being acknowledged in the constitution would go tremendously far in terms of mending relations between the Syrian Arabs and the Syrian Kurds, possibly even preventing armed conflict between the two largest powers in Syria at the moment.

The Assad government doesn't have many friends, and bringing the Kurds and their manpower and willingness to fight into the fold would pay dividends.

totally yeah. theres been some noise where people have looked at assad talking about the unbreakable sovereign borders or syria or something like or the whole host of tensions between the govt and kurds, but it pretty plainly is in the interests of both groups.

as an aside:
yknow, i suppose however the cards play out, in a few decades time we'll probably have a fairly clear idea of what the head honchos in the syrian govt, turks, kurds et al were actually planning during all of this. makes you wonder how it'll look in retrospect.