So what are the odds that Catalonia will be independent within the next 30 days?

Reading the news media is useless, as always.

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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017#Referendum_reactions
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactions_to_the_Catalan_independence_referendum,_2017#International
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It already is independent. The people have spoken

0% by various facts, being the main one that there are ''only'' around 30-40% of catalans truly supporting independence

if they were a big majority, something like 60%+ of total population then they could achieve their goal no matter what the rest of spain said

Kurdistan also had an overwhelming yes vote. It seems ironic that the very nations thrusting democracy in everyone's faces (US, Canada, UK, Western Europe) are the ones saying nations like Kurdistan & Catalonia can't have sovereignty. Just shows their true globalist colors. Trudeau is as liberal as they come about lgbtq rights and the right for a kid in school to use non gendered bathrooms, but god forbid someone across the globe wants the right to sovereignty.

For being this brave white knight of the freedom of peoples, Trudeau has kept disgracefully quiet about the Catalan referendum, and seemed to be against the Kurdistan one. Citing Quebec. What a sack of shit.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Kurdistan_independence_referendum,_2017#Referendum_reactions
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactions_to_the_Catalan_independence_referendum,_2017#International

Ok so when catalonian independentism was not a big deal I chaosmagicked civil war into spanish independency.

Have I dun goofed?

Why is it? Because they voted on a referendum?
If that's the reason, then South Brazil and the State of São Paulo are independent for years, because both already had dozens of plebiscites and referendums.
Referendums are a MEME.-

Kurdistan had a much larger turnout, so their results have greater weight. Of course, this is in part because they have are already functioning as a de facto state with their own military forces. In Catalonia, however, the referendum was declared illegal, so over half of the Catalan population neglected to vote. Many opposed to independence still wanted the referendum, and were likely among those who declined to turn up to the polling stations.

Don't get me wrong, I support Catalan independence if they want it, but I think there needs to be a legal referendum agreed upon by the Spanish and Catalan governments or else the whole thing will be a Machiavellian shitshow on both sides.

What military means do they have to deter a Spanish invasion??

>What military means do they have to deter a Spanish invasion??
Being shamed in front of the world news media, I guess.

This is hypocrisy coming from an American. I think your country's bloody Rebellion over a 2% taxation rate was ridiculous and absurd, but taking it on its own terms, as something which most of you see as having been desirable: imagine if what you call your Founding Fathers had refused to take up arms and rebel, and instead insisted on getting a legal referendum for independence from the British government. It would never have happened for them and it will never happen for the Catalonians. A constitution which ipso facto and a priori denies the ability for an ancient nation of 7.5 million souls and whose earliest work of literature is 1,000 years old to secede is inherently unjust and tantamount to slavery. Laws must only be followed if they are just.

The problem is that only 42% showed up. True, maybe the rest should have manned the fuck up and turned out, but it's not as politically convincing to the EU, who may throw weight behind Spain when shit pops off. I'd love to see a free Catalonia, but I don't think they're going to win a civil war without support from either foreign nations or sympathetic Spaniards.

We had an ocean between us and you bongs, and the force to back up our claims to independence. Culture is an impetus to rebellion, but it won't win a war.

Literally 0%

Any spanish that is not a reclused larping fedora knows that spanish military will act if the police and the institutions arent able to maintain the order.

Jesús fucking crist, the vast majority of muy friends and knowns were lefties 4 years algo and now they are claming form sending the legión to deal with catalans and to capture the catalán goverment.

Reminder that the alt-right is willing to fight to defend any great European power against the communist hordes

We are coming for you, seperatists

The case of India and the other ex-colonies shows that violence is not necessarily the only way for a country to gain independence.

The Catalonians now have enormous sympathy world-wide. Even in the case of America's violent rebellion, your radical Whig colonists needed extensive French and Spanish assistance, as well as mixed support for the war at home in Britain to come off successfully.

Had America not rebelled it would have gained its independence peacefully in time, just like Canada and Australia, and without the necessity of 150,000 deaths (then yet another 600,000 a hundred years later when the Yanks oppressed the Southerners for only trying to do what the Yanks had themselves done in the first instance).

...

Every pro-government tool I have yet to come across on the internet is a mere sadist.

> defending the very same criminals who brought us the refugee crisis
Thanks, but no thanks

The Catalan seperatists literally rioted to demand more refugees and less white tourists.

100%.

100% sure they will announce independence in the next days.

0% chance they will ACTUALLY be independent then, because the gov in Madrid is an oppressive fascist institution. The struggle has just begun.

What matters is that the world KNOWS

lmfao, someone should do "the virgin referendum".

0

Just, wait, EU will help them.

At least thats what they think.

Leader of the catalan police and a couple other separatist organizations are getting charged with sedition by the way.

0%

Civil war first

a shitty police force made up of women and niggers

>Just, wait, EU will help them.
>At least thats what they think.
And they done nothing effective, other than a few feeble remarks in support of Spain.

But that's what you get for trusting the EU.

15 years 50%
30 years 100%
we're getting the micro-States future

They were stupid for trusting the EU in the first place. Why would the EU help an independence movement when most of their member states also have some regions that want independence from their states.