How many years are we still safe until we reach peak oil?

How many years are we still safe until we reach peak oil?

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a while. we're barely tapping into the oil in the far north

peak oil is a meme

Gosh. We've been at peak oil for decades. Any day now we're going to run out.

Perhaps the hypothesis that fossil fuels come from fossils is wrong. Perhaps heat, Calcium Carbonate, and water create petroleum.

last time everyone freaked out about peak oil it was 2005. annnnd we're still here.

>Nigs will be pushed out of cities to starve in our empty suburban dystopia
Doesn’t sound so bad

We will be done with oil long before the earths reserves are depleted. There are still MANY massive formations rich with oil that have not been discovered yet. New technology is allowing new oil fields to be found, and even new shale fields. Petrocountries will be fucked when oil is like $8/barrell.

>Belieaving peak oil jew meme

they've been saying 50 years for 20 years

>uses a liquid
>calls it gas
>MFW

This. OP, Have you even even looked at an economics book before?

When oil gets more scarce, it gets more expensive, and slowly over time, less and less people will use oil, because the alternatives are cheaper.

As it gets more expensive, other people will have more incentive to manufacture it, out of algae or whatever, driving the price down.

We've already hit peak oil. The Government is running on stockpiles and not telling you about it.

Do you have any clue statistically how much oil the world still produces from any of it's oil fields? Give it a guess. Gallons, liters, tonnes?

It doesn't matter. The answer is the same either way. Our last working oil well ran dry three years ago.

Aren't literally all plastics made out of oil? Will all our plastic shit be made of wood in like 75 years? what about my synthetic clothes and my gf's nylons?

All Hubert did was predict extraction from conventional wells and he was right.
Oil EROEI is falling from a cliff.

That's just like the diamonds scam. They say there is only so much so they create their own supply and demand. We should have been off the oil methadone program by now with all the new energy technology that's around.

The word plastic just means moldable. There are tons of different kinds of plastics and most of them we can make out of plants. It's just a lot more expensive than using petroleum byproducts.

Sure thing, user, as long as we develop the alternatives by then, we'll be fine. The ones we have now aren't enough satisfying though, and we'll need the alternatives to be as powerful to satisfy the demand.

i can't believe there are people this retarded who post with the pirate flag. just kidding, everyone who posts with the pirate flag is a huge retard just like you.

We have plenty of satisfying alternatives, we have had them 20 years ago, they just cost way more than oil.

When there's less oil, the alternatives will cost less and we will use them.

this

>When there's less oil, the alternatives will cost less

Might be because i'm completely dumb in economics, but would you mind me explaining how this will be the case?

Will those alternatives be somehow subsidized for the popular classes? Or perhaps only the upper classes would be able to actually afford those?

50 years
by then you'll already be dead (cancer, heart disease, etc.)

Are you a member of opec op?
Because if not, peak oil is a good think. Well have to legalize hemp and have a sustainable source free from wahhabist and kike control

>What is supply and demand?

>> It's just a lot more expensive than using petroleum byproducts.

Where do you think petroleum comes form????

America found a Saudi Arabia size cache of Shale, and Canada has a crap ton too. it may mean gas wont be under $3/gallon again here, but we wont run out soon.

>and have a sustainable source free from wahhabist and kike control
Sure, but we're not going fast enough for that to happen at least at the same time of the peak oil

Sorry to be lazy about this; I have matters to which I must attend at the moment. But would one of you nice gentlemen be so kind as to shop "JEWS" in place of "GAS" in OP's pic?

Thanks a ton!

What happens when milk in your local market costs more than you can afford? Lets say cows are going extinct or something.

You buy some fucking soy milk, or goat milk, or juice instead.

This isn't rocket surgery, this isn't even basic economics, it's common fucking sense.

Nah but I understood that, but how will the supply of alternative energies change according to how many oil do we have left?

What are you even asking?

I'm saying that plant plastics cost more than petroleum plastics.

And the main reason is because petroleum is used mainly as gas and plastic is a waste byproduct.

And you don't buy anything if the alternative is too expensive. And that's what i'm worried about, user

Peak oil was big thing 10-15 years ago, then the 2008 crash happened and reduced demand thanks to the economy falling apart. Interest artes slashed to zero, massive debt accumulation begins, fracking becomes popular thanks to the massive debt lending(the technology for fracking has been around since the 1950's, but only recently has it become a thing thanks to debt and depletion of conventional fields). Conventional oilfield output peaked in 2005, unconventional oil picked up the slack. But the things is, unconventional oil is a giant meme, american fracking companies weren't even able to make a profit when oil was $110 a barrel, but now at $50 a barrel people think it will somehow save us

The only reason industrial civilization hasn't collapsed is because of massive debt lending, the entire system is unsustainable and on its last legs, and there is no alternative to oil

Basically we're FUCKED

As an oilfield worker I can tell you that this is not true
Or even close.

So now you have extra money in your wallet and a desperate need for a product.

And there are a lot of hungry entrepreneurs that want to satisfy that need for you and take your money.

Milk is insanely expensive?

Perfect time to open up a goat/soy farm.

Petroleum gas is getting too expensive?

Perfect time to grow some corn and make some diesel.

It's called hydrocarbons, shilljew, read a book

Fracking is not a viable industry, they are hemorrhaging money but "dumb money" aka baby boomers keep giving them more because they fell for the energy independent america meme

Costs of extraction are increasing 10% a year

This is an EXPONENTIAL increase in cost

Oil companies are hemorrhaging money at $50 a barrel oil, 15 years ago oil was $50 a barrel and they were raking in cash, what changed?

Costs of extraction are increasing 10% a year

This is an EXPONENTIAL increase in cost

Oil reserve discoveries are at an all time low, convention wells depleting at 5-10% a year, maintaining production costs are increasing 10% a year

This is an EXPONENTIAL increase in cost, price of oil remains low

The oil industry is facing total collapse, it will bring down industrial civilization with it, the only thing preventing collapse is debt and low interest rates

US federal reserve is increasing interest rates

Infinite

Oil is abiotic and created via mineral compression deep within the mantle and is renewable and naturally replenishing resource

>muh dinosaurs and algae all conveniently died together in a big mass to form oil theory

Yeah sure

>not recognizing the process is goes through in an engine converts it to gas

At the height of the fracking boom and high oil prices, american oil companies could not even have positive cash flow

People(dumb money aka baby boomers) still think this is a viable enterprise

Top kek

Stop lying hippie!

Fair enough, but let's suppose that the process (funding, maintaining the farm, distribution) will be less expensive than oil, but still too much expensive for the lower classes to buy the alternative products you're selling. Let's imagine you can't also get subsidies or get minimal subsidies from the government because it's being nearly bankrupt, what do you do?

I would be logically satisfied with the response "only the rich could afford it" but that wouldn't want to make me see how the post-fossil fuel era will be

I think most experts now believe we will reach peak oil *demand* before peak oil production, therefore making the whole doomsday scenario thing largely irrelevant.

It was a good theory for a while, but the development of low-cost horizontal drilling and fracking liberated so much new resource that it basically killed the peak oil meme.

Also, the ability to rapidly spin up and spin down drilling capacity these days (instead of the old model where you had to search and search and hopefully find a huge field) means that the investment markets that supply capital for oil drilling are much more efficient and resilient to future price spikes. In other words, the economic calamity that was foreseen by peak oilers relied upon very fast price changes oustripping the market's ability to cope. But now, because of technology, the price of oil is likely to more smoothly change, allowing more time for the economy to adjust to alternative energy sources.

What was the price of oil in 2005 when cash flow was positive? $50 a barrel

What was the cash flow when oil was $100 a barrel? BILLIONS IN THE RED DESPITE OIL PRICES DOUBLING

COSTS OF EXTRACTION GOING UP 10% A YEAR, THIS IS AN EXPONENTIAL CURVE

It is time to start panicking

I mean, what comes out of the exhaust pipe of your car is gas.

>low-cost horizontal drilling and fracking

Are you serious? They could not even make money when oil prices are double what they are today

As oil prices were increasing they WERE LOSING MORE MONEY

With the collapse of oil prices in 2014/2015 the oil industry has bee absolutely gutted

JUSt stop paying the extraction costs
Make it free to drill oil

Lets look at this image

in 2005 oil was $40 a barrel, everybody was making money

In 2013 oil was $100 a barrel, EVERYBODY IS IN THE RED BILLIONS

OIL DOUBLES IN PRICE AND THEY START HEMORRHAGING MONEY

PEOPLE THINK THIS IS SUSTAINABLE

>Sure thing, user, as long as we develop the alternatives by then, we'll be fine.

We already have alternatives. We use fresh-squeezed dinosaur juice because it is still plentiful and cheap. As soon as pure synthetics become more cost-effective and profitable due to a shortage of crude oil, that is what the market will switch to.

"Peak oil" is a jewish myth spread by liars who understand basic economics just enough to manipulate it for their own profits.

Just hack the prices and machines and stock markets

Notice how oil prices go from $50 a barrel to $140 a barrel 2005-2007

Despite this massive run up in oil prices, companies started making EVEN LESS money

How is such as thing possible?

COSTS OF EXTRACTION ARE INCREASING 10% A YEAR, THIS IS AN EXPONENTIAL CURVE

People don't understand how serious this is

Just pass a price lock law

Fun oil fact: In 2013 oil companies began to complain about low oil prices, $100/barrel was not enough for them to remain profitable, they wanted $150/barrel oil

What happened last time oil was $150 a barrel? 2008 economic collapse

What does this meaaaaan? Help me I'm uneducated on this matter. Is pic related?

B'wahahaha!

Folks still believe that the Earth isn't STILL producing oil.

The 'Peak Oil' thing is nothing more than propaganda to shore up higher prices and/or push for 'government funding' for alternative resources.

As long as the USA keeps drilling and fracking we should be fine....thanks to Trump. If a pussy Democrat gets back in the WH, not so much.

>How many years are we still safe until we reach peak oil?
>2017-1846
Negative 171 years.

(io9.gizmodo.com/5930414/1846-the-year-we-hit-peak-sperm-whale-oil)

Holy shit look at this chart, oil was only $30 a barrel in the year 2000 and look at all that money they were making. Oil prices fucking QUADRUPLED to $120 a barrel in 2011 and they START LOSING MONEY

What the fuck is going on, are these oil companies run by total retards? No, the costs of extraction are increasing 10% a year(exponential growth)

The oil industry is facing SERIOUS CRISIS, and if they fail they are taking globalized modern civilization with them, good luck importing shit from china when the merchant fleets have no bunker fuel

Do people still think fracking is a viable profitable industry? It is the sunset of the oil industry(and probably industrial civilization too)

Look at he orange line, capital expenditures, looks almost exponential in nature

What are capital expenditures? It is the cost to extract oil

Holy fucking christ capital expenditures went up FIVES TIMES in only 12 years, and the total amount of oil production DECLINED, talk about bank for your buck am i right?

kek

>What are capital expenditures?

A lot of that was due to mandated upgrades to refining facilities and improving/increasing storage capacity. The US has more of a storage problem than it does a refining problem.

And I turn sugar into carbon dioxide, heat, and methane. Should we call sweets "Hot Fart Butp"?

>good luck importing shit from china

Funny thing...

"Mammoth Texas oil discovery biggest ever in USA

By Steve Visser

Updated 6:27 AM ET, Fri November 18, 2016
A pumpjack sits at dawn in the Permian Basin oil field last January near Midland, Texas."

Sauce: cnn.com/2016/11/17/us/midland-texas-mammoth-oil-discovery/index.html

Excerpt:

"Geologists say a new survey shows an oilfield in west Texas dwarfs others found so far in the United States, according to the US Geological Survey.
The Midland Basin of the Wolfcamp Shale area in the Permian Basin is now estimated to have 20 billion barrels of oil and 1.6 billion barrels of natural gas, according to a new assessment by the USGS.
That makes it three times larger than the assessment of the oil in the mammoth Bakken formation in North Dakota.

The estimate would make the oilfield, which encompasses the cities of Lubbock and Midland -- 118 miles apart -- the largest "continuous oil" discovery in the United States, according to the USGS."

Hot Fart Burp*

The refineries are being upgraded due to the depletion of cheap conventional oil, now they have to process high sulfur ultra heavy Canadian and Venezuelan oil, and ultra light American oil

These increasing costs are a result of peak(conventional) oil, and they are bankrupting the entire industry, based on current cash flows peak conventional oil will evolve into just peak oil

>20 billion barrels of oil

Only 8 months worth of oil based on current consumption

If peak oil were real, the left's primary strategy would be depleting it as a means of collapsing civilization for their coveted hard-reboot into global communism. Instead, they fight tooth and nail to powerswap.

No, it’s like a fucking cult. Peak oilers expected their rapture in 2005 but now try to hand wave away changes to the oil economy.

the two answers your going to get is the oil is going to run out tomorrow or the oil is never going to run out, dont worry about it.

this leaf has done his homework

Sup Forums really fucks with your mind.
I read "sorry no gays".

...but still too much expensive for the lower classes to buy the alternative products you're selling.
I don't think energy moguls care to leave money on the table. They want as large a share of the market as they can get, and the 'lower classes' buy a lot of oil products.
You are asking a loaded question. "Suppose Joe Average CAN'T afford it. How will Joe Average afford it?" Well, I guess he can't. Is your pessimism 'logically satisfied?'

We'll reach peak oil in:
>1978... no wait
>1984... no wait
>1996... no wait
>2005... no wait
>2014... no wait
>2020... no wait
>2029... no wait
>2043... no wait
>...

>peak oil thread

Global peak oil is tricky - we may or may not ever reach a specific peak, and even then there may or may not be serious repercussions. As long as production eases off gradually, alternatives will take oil's place and lifestyles will change to rely less on the newer, more expensive alternatives.

On the other hand, LOCAL peak oil is not only inevitable, it has already happened in numbers countries. And when it does, the level of catastrophe is in proportion to the percentage of GDP derived from oil revenues. Highly energy-dependent states almost invariably rely on energy revenues to prop up their regimes, either by funding a strong security apparatus to suppress dissent or by subsidizing luxuries for their citizens to buy their loyalty.

Draw up a list of nations ranked by percent of GDP from energy, and a second list ranked by largest percent decline in oil output. Whoever shows up near the top of both will be in civil war within a decade.

...

That and there are alternatives that will be the future:
A. LENR is in the next two years.
B. Nuclear is possible if we don't keep using old reactor designs.

Not the future:
C. Solar/wind, is fine for processing grain but awful return on work and materials required for electricity or as a fuel.
B. Fusion, works now unless you count the cost of the electricity used by the magnets & coolant. If you use non-retarded math, fusion development is still 100+ years away.

Biggest fake news of the 90's early 00's to scam the goyim on oil prices. Just with the oil fields found in Canada and Venezuela we can last for a whole century. We still need to develop cheap, cleaner energy substitutes though, it should be one of humanities goals for this century, but it's looking good.

At some point the highest rate of oil flowing out of the ground will be reached. After that point has passed I'm not sure their will be any noticeable changes. I don't think we are going to get some instant dooms day scenario. It's difficult to understand exactly how scarcity, and geographical constraints, effect people's lives, but I'm sure they do in some way right now, and will continue to do so after oil has peaked in much the same way. As for when it will peak, who knows? Twenty or thirty years maybe?

nigel you don't seem to get it. you are being distracted by the confetti debt money and don't look at the most important thing.

the most important thing is energy gained on energy invested. right now if there was a real "free market" for petroleum the price of oil would be so astronomical it would immediately crash the economy.

so that is why we have QE to infinity and all this hot "money" pumping into the economy (especially petrol extraction) from the central banks. this is the last ditch effort for the billionaires to try and save themselves with renewables before they pull the plug.

of course they won't be safe from marauding hordes in their PMC defended eco-mansions no matter what they think.

Ten years ago. Go educate yourself on what peak oil actually means.

...

>gas, short for gasoline, is a petroleum distillate
Calling gas petrol is like calling a square a rectangle

>peak oil?
its a myth.

Get these going haha

Kek that pic

Peak oil can't be reached, because other technologies would replace oil a lot more rapidly if the world really started running out of oil, because they'd become a lot cheaper in comparison to using oil which in turn would lengthen the time the reserves are going to hold. Overall the world can thank the white man once again since we're basically the ones perfecting other forms of motorization and thereby decrease the cost of those oil alternative technologies long before this would happen naturally, but then again this is also a race with China who want to become the technology leader of the future. Complicated business, but basically we're way past the point where peak oil can happen.

...

>tfw read it as "sorry no gays"

>muh peak oil

That is what it says, see

>Peak oil can't be reached, because other technologies would replace oil a lot more rapidly if the world really started running out of oil
although I dont think peak oil can happen, there is a case to be made against this.
If you look at oil company/opec models, you find out that they behave like oil is a comodity that you search for and extract(practically infinite compared to Hotelling theory esque that you descrive). So there is a possiblity that we'd could find out there is alot less in the ground than anticipated( proven oil reserves which are used 99% of the time are just reserves that are proven, in the ground, extractable and extractable under the cost of current oil price), other than that there is really no good data on how much oil there really is on earth

aka Dutch disease

EROIE is still pretty good last time I looked it up.

you obviously don't even know what peak oil means

I'm going to argue that all it takes is one major breakthrough to cause fusion to be rapidly developed.

>I'm going to argue that all it takes is one major breakthrough to cause fusion to be rapidly developed.
I think people have been saying that for at least as long as they have been talking about peak oil.

>How many years are we still safe until we reach peak oil?
According to liberals, peak oil happened in 1970.
Then, according to them, it REALLY happened in 1980.
Then they say we hit the actual peak in 1990.
Then 2000.
They they said 2010.
According to liberals, we will hit peak oil in 2020.
So I think it's pretty clear this is settled "science." The debate is over. Blah, blah, blah.

The thugs are storing massive barrels of oil underground in the super-massive caverns built by the secret state to escape the coming solar storm that will reverse the polarity of the earth and cause an epic variation in the weather upon which much vegetation will not survive, the elites are planning for this to happened and have stock piled immense quantities of oil, gas gold, nuclear power, earth magnets and actively makeing geothermal power plant ports in these, thats the #real reason for fracking, to help create the deep earth geothermal power plants for the massive-underground expansive caverns for the elite thugs who are planning world domination and to destroy billions of people stated in the georgia guide stones because they have stockpiled so much goods they then promote the idea of scarcity to make billions to conglomerate more control to stockpile more to perpetuate the idea of scarcity to push the math in their favor while deliberately using shity methods of waste management to scare the public out of further investment into resource extraction because its made out to look like a disaster each time on purpose for the sake of promoting global warming while they the thugs suppress Nicola Teslas free energy devices in order to force the work force into the hard labor required for massive stockpiling required to promote scarcity required to build the debt which is required for them to make us lads subservient to the greater state which is required for labor required to stockpile required for the elite thugs to be able to survive the coming storm

also yellowstone