When do you think the next recession/depression will hit? 2018? 2019?

When do you think the next recession/depression will hit? 2018? 2019?

I think it's going to hit very soon, as the fundamentals show the same trends that we see before every previous recession we've had.

US credit card debt is over a trillion. Auto loans are over a trillion. Mortgages are over 4 trillion I believe. There's an insane amount of personal and government debt that will have to be paid back.

I notice around me that there's alot of construction around. Construction of bullshit things like malls, parking lots, skyscrapers, retail centers, government projects and business ventures that will obviously fail in any normal market.

My point is, there is a huge amount of debt and malinvestment currently, even more than we saw in '08 and before. The market will experience a correction, but the question is, when?

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youtube.com/watch?v=ZoH5hXoua68
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nigga I'm already depressed.

I want to make like 10 babies yet I can't find a gf.

It can’t be too far away. There was no fundamental structural changes following the previous recession. The housing market is overpriced everywhere. All the emerging market economies are verging on disaster. Oil prices are still way too low. Once one of the dominos start to fall there will be no stopping.

Fucking snow niggers...Innit my pajeet friend?

Absolutely. My sister borrowed money to buy an apartment in a city north in Norway to live in for a year. I think it was around 1 million NOK (120 000 USD), and she sold it a year later for a profit of almost 20000 USD. This was between 2015 and 2016 I believe.

I mean that's insane profits for just buying and selling an apartment. In northern norway no less.

Australian and Canadian housing bubbles collapsing is going to be brutal.

Yep. That's the basis of their entire economies. Especially Canada. It's going to be fucking great though. To be completely honest I'm really really looking forward to the collapse.

Me too. Maybe it'll signal to them it's time to expel the foreign hordes.

everybody is fucking around with real estate again like they completely forgot what happened 10(!) years ago. I heard this ad on the radio the other day saying "are you a freelancer? We'll give you a mortgage!"
Shit's gonna crash again and I'll just be laughing

I think the worst societal result of nearly a decade of low, zero, and even negative interest rates, is that all these pensionfirms have had to invest much of their money in stocks, since bonds have very shitty yields, or even negative yields! When the crash in the insanely overpriced stock market comes, these pension funds will lose hundreds of billions if not trillions, and they will completely be unable to fund the pensions of this huge wave boomers that are retiring right fucking now, or within 5 years, let alone to have money for the generations that come after the boomers.
It will be especially bad in the US, because there the pension system is completely fucked. Northwestern Europe will still have a pension system after the crash and the depression that follows, albeit a slimmed down version. But in the United States the pension system as we know it today will be completely erased, and may be replaced by some shitty government plan.

I am really happy that I live in a socialist welfare state right now. THere's nothing wrong with spending money on your own people. It is just unfortunate that we let in Somalians and other third worlders who only consume and do not produce anything of value. Not to mention all the cultural malaise they bring.

There's too much easy money everywhere. I know somebody who put a $1000 bucks in some speculative bitcoin thing and now they have $30000 dollars. Like wtf is going on.

I agree with you on all but one thing. That living in a socialist welfare state is a good thing. Socialism is the only thing that has caused this shitty economic paradigm. Saying socialism will save you from the economic depression is like saying a slave owner is doing his slaves a good favor by giving them food.

Just started reading Peter Warburton's Debt & Delusion, written in 1999, which predicted the situation we are currently in. Pretty good book.

>But in the United States the pension system as we know it today will be completely erased, and may be replaced by some shitty government plan.

It would be poetic justice for Boomers to be forced to retire to government-built sanctuaries given the complete lack of competence of the generation.

>Saying socialism will save you from the economic depression is like saying a slave owner is doing his slaves a good favor by giving them food.
True. I mainly said this with my parents and other boomer-aged relatives in mind. I don't want them to suffer in old age without any pensions because our elites completely fucked things up. I'd gladly pay taxes if it meant I could help my fellow huwhite man. But I do understand the limits of the welfare state, and the pull-factor it has on welfare parasites from within the country, and from outside the country (Africans, Afghans etc).

Good to hear.

Somewhere in the distant future. You conspiritards always claim that there will be another collapse soon but you're serving nothingburgers 24/7.

>The market will experience a correction, but the question is, when?
Not a correction, but a major deleverage and reset. Just like in 30-40s.

>It would be poetic justice for Boomers to be forced to retire to government-built sanctuaries given the complete lack of competence of the generation.
I don't think all boomers are deserving of this fate. How can you blame an Appallachian coal miner for doing what the electric Jew has told him to do? It's the coastal elites that are most deserving of a life on the reservation with a government handout, but they'll probably be the ones who get away scot free.
A few years ago I had fantasies about reserving spots on lampposts for the financiers who fucked it up. These fantasies are coming back, as I am reawakened to the fact that our elites fucked up the West so fucking much.

Are you ready?

Economics is psychology. Have a good day.

>How can you blame an Appallachian coal miner for doing what the electric Jew has told him to do?

Same way I blame libtards today for not looking at things objectively, but instead through the lense of "what makes me feel good right now?" It's all the same behavior.

The time where everybody gawks in tandem is approaching. The Great WTFening will occur when it becomes evident that China has lost control of its financial system.

youtube.com/watch?v=ZoH5hXoua68

reuters.com/article/us-global-debt-iif/worldwide-debt-more-than-triple-economic-output-as-central-bank-shift-looms-idUSKBN1CU1V9

umm what?

Bought a place in 2012 when houses were barely worth the materials they were built with. Just sold for a fat profit and will reinvest when it comes crashing down again in the next 18 - 24 months. I reccomend all land owners do the same. Sure you could hold out for a little while longer for an extra few thousand but with all the precursors in place, wait too much longer and the rug will get pulled out from under you.

Invest in funeral homes and mortuaries.

>economics is psychology

I'm tired of people putting economics in the same basket as other social sciences since you need a pretty thorough understanding of maths to understand what's going on

Indeed. The only thing that makes economics similar to the social sciences is that it doesn't use the scientific method. But aside from that it's an artform for the intelligent.

Are you ready?

Shitposting is psychology. Have a good day.

A series of world wide terror attacks this holiday seasons will kickoff the next the great depresession.

2025

>Same way I blame libtards today for not looking at things objectively, but instead through the lense of "what makes me feel good right now?" It's all the same behavior.
The difference between the coal miners and the liberals is that the liberals have had the education. They should, theoretically, be able to think critically after their time "studying" at college.
My deepest hatred is reserved for these quant cunts like the LTCM cunts and deregulation goons like Robert Rubin and Larry Summers who completely fucked up our system.

>Invest in funeral homes and mortuaries.
I'm going long rope and pitchforks, and I'm shorting banking real estate because it will all be burned down to the ground once we're done with this shit.

Can't wait for some bankers to jump out their 100 storey buildings after they find out they all their ill-gotten gains and have an arrest warrant from a non-cucked Justice Department. We just need Trump to find Jeff Sessions' balls and this might happen some day.

>The difference between the coal miners and the liberals is that the liberals have had the education. They should, theoretically, be able to think critically after their time "studying" at college.

You don't need much, if any education to understand a failure of long-term planning. If I'm being harsh towards the uneducated it's because they were inherently complicit in the shit that's gone on these past thirty years through their pension funds. Because even though they didn't go to college they lived in a time where that was a thing they could do and still stock a pension fund.

It doesn't help the economy in Australia when our Armenian crime syndicate NSW state premier sells off state coal power stations for less than the cost of a Sydney small home (1 million dollars... ~730k USD) when it has an insurance book value of .... 724 million dollars! They absolutely HAVE forgotten about Subprime Sally ten years ago. I'm happy to fish and hunt rabbits for food. I think the economy really needs to die for a while to make these idiots learn

>You don't need much, if any education to understand a failure of long-term planning.
While I'm not 100% sure about the US, I do know that normal working class people in the Netherlands were deeply sceptical about the financialization of the economy, globalization, and the growth of debt, which started in the late 1970s. It took concerted efforts by the financial elites and their political cuck-puppets to break down this reluctance to take on debt, and it only really took off in the 1990s. There used to be a deeply rooted distaste or even hatred for debt. Unfortunately that is now gone. If the elites keep on telling you you're a fucking idiot for not getting deeply in debt, then it gets harder and harder to not do this, especially if all your relatives and friends are doing this and profiting from it.
>Status society was a mistake

It's the study of human behavior at a macro level using statistical models
Still far better than psychology

>tfw gen X and have no clue what to expect because I've never consciously experienced a recession/depression
Sounds like something you guys are being hysterical about

>It's the study of human behavior at a macro level using statistical models
>Still far better than psychology
Fuck off.

The real hierarchy in the study of the economy is from best to worst:

>Economic history
>Financial practicioners writings
>Psychology
>Marx
>Finance Twitter
>CNN
>MSNBC
>Huffington Post
>Craiglist
>...
>...
>...
>...
>Jim Cramer
>...
>Paul Krugman
>Obama
>...
>...
>...
>...
>...
>statistical models

Quantocide when?

>Sounds like something you guys are being hysterical about
No. The next decade is going to suck ass for a lot of people

I'd say 2019, once China pops

How is the debt load in Poland?

>Be decadent western 'democractic',
capitalist, free market advocate economist.
>Saying China's economy will crash in 2008.
>Great recession xD
>Saying China's economy will crash in 2012.
>Saying China's economy will crash in 2013
>Saying China's economy will crash in 2014
>Saying China's economy will crash in 2015
>Saying China's economy will crash in 2016
>Saying China's economy will crash in 2017
>Saying China's economy will crash in 2018
>Saying China's economy will crash in 2019

You're a brainlet. If debts & debt loads rise faster than the economy grows, you're going to get into problems some day