How much can we really trust polls Sup Forums?

How much can we really trust polls Sup Forums?
I find it hard now to even trust a poll these days. I also find it disturbing that people are continuing to use them after what happen in 2016.

You can probably trust the polls.
>inb4 muh 99% chance of hillary winning
The popular vote polls were by and large pretty accurate.

I don't trust the ballot box anymore. Anything digital can be hacked. We need to go back to pen and paper ballots counted by hand and by two opposing people.

>A Hillary blowout - vol II
they really got nothing else do they?

Can't wait for the tasty butthurt of Republitards

based. look at the proud not slaves freeing white man voting for the white man's KKK not israel creating and supporting democratic party. the south has risen

I mean, the popular vote polls weren't terribly inaccurate in 2016. You have to understand that Hillary was massively unpopular. She wasn't the average democrat. She was literally one of if not the most hated politician that the DNC could have run. The dems could win a lot of seats next year, but at the same time, there aren't a whole lot of strong democrats. So I will wait and see.

Make no mistake, absolutely every move Democrats have made for seats since Donald Trump's election has been posturing themselves by blowing enormous amounts of money on special elections that they'll never actually be able to afford to do on a national scale when it comes to midterms. Republicans aren't even trying in these races because it's not worth, and it's only worth it to Democrats because they're invested into the narrative that it's prophetic. They're trying to make the "blue wave" happen on its own by keeping up the appearance of it being self-evident and inevitable. Don't listen to them, and don't get complacent because you think we've got this no matter what. You all don't even realize how OVER it is for us if we fuck this up, but what an absolute metldown will occur if it's the presidential election day all over again.

Trump didn't win by a massive margin... The polling was pretty close, but with the electoral college a few thousand votes can mean a lot of electoral votes.

There is really no way that the democrats can out-fund and out-spend the republicans. The party is nearly bankrupt. They are going to have to rely heavily on rhetoric to do well in the midterms. Fortunately for them, they have the media on their side. Nonetheless, I don't think that it is going to be the blowout that they would like you to anticipate. I have a feeling that they will win a few seats, and may even manage to become the majority in the senate. Ultimately however, I portend their wins will seem underwhelming when it is all said and done.

Of course, we all know what happened two years later in 2010.

nice numbers
polls have an effect on the event in question. if a candidate polls too far ahead lazy people think their candidate will win so they don't turn out, but this can also make the loser's voters not turn out as well as they believe he has no chance. So in this case it depends on voter enthusiasm - if the loser's voters are more enthusiastic and the winner's voters aren't, then there can be and upset.
Early polls can also affect funding in the same way and become self-fulfilling prophecies, because donors won't fund people they expect to lose, and without that money they are more likely to lose.
Smart media will also legitimize candidates with big leads to make them seem inevitable, and encourage a bandwagon effect. "Everyone supports this issue/candidate so you should too"

Most polls are propaganda.

Polls were dead wrong in 2016 and I have no faith in them anymore. They are basically just establishment shills. I don't expect Trump to win in 2020 barring a huge fucking fiasco on the part of the Dems. It is their election to lose at this point, but if any party could throw an election against Donald Trump it's the Democratic party.

Pull up a chair come autumn 2020, boys, cause the circus is coming back to town.

>Hillary 98.9% chance of winning

That much

Polls are notoriously bullshit.

>Winning
>Popular vote

Pick one faggot

Soros did funnel 18 billion to leftist groups though, probably mostly Antifa and every Anti-Trump group around.

But what if he didn't? What if the 18 billion all went into the coffers of the Democrat party to be used for congressional races?

>popular vote polls
Those don't exist, and no they weren't accurate at all. Hillary won a tiny fraction of US counties, nearly all her "popular vote" was located around LA and New York City, in a handful of counties. Trump won the popular vote in over 3000 counties.

It's completely worth it to fight over every senate seat, you idiot.

especially with such a narrow majority.

>polling average says Hillary +3
>general election is Hillary +1 (Trump wins via electoral college)

You should never trust the retards who were saying it would be 98-2 Hillary, but actual polls usually get it pretty close.

On a national level the polls saved some face thanks to huge margins for Hillary in CA and NY but they fucked up bad on the state level. In some states Trump won close (MI, PA, WI) many reputable polls had Hillary winning by 5+ points, which was a huge miss.

This. I don't think that this polling is as good for the Dems as it could be. And state wide polling is still shit in most places. The Democrats are at a huge disadvantage in the Senate races. This is one reason they are having fundraising problems. No one wants to spend money playing defense. There are no pickup opportunities.

The polls also had some states Trump won convincingly projected as toss ups
>IA (Trump +10)
>GA (Trump +5)
>OH (Trump +8)

...