>It’s just one poll from one polling outlet (albeit one given an A+ rating for accuracy and sound methodology by FiveThirtyEight). But for Democrats already concerned about the love shown the president in snap polls following last night’s State of the Union address, the first 2018 national survey from Monmouth University lands like a punch in the mouth.
>Worst of all for Dems, a 15-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot in December (51/36) is now down to two points (47/45). This equals the smallest Democratic advantage in any poll since the beginning of the current election cycle.
>polls are reliable and trustworthy only when they benefit me
t. Sup Forums
Hudson Sullivan
When biased polls don't even favor the dems anymore, they've got a problem.
Liam Carter
you cant even use logical fallacies correctly lol
Matthew Flores
Probably 15% Democrat over sampling.
Brayden Turner
Oh how hilarious it would be after all the hype from leftists on social media and in the mainstream media the federal gains made by the Democratic Party in the 2018 midterms was just a few U.S. House seats (while losing seats in the U.S. Senate.)
William Nguyen
>Sup Forums is one person
Noah Thompson
If the democrats lose in 2018 expect mass suicide
Levi Fisher
This is how we win. Satan calls his own
William Butler
We've never said they're unreliable and untrustworthy. We said they're rigged. 2016 election proved us right. Consistently 10+ advantage throughout 2016 for Hilcunt and the shitcunt lost.
Ryan Foster
They're going to lose Senate seats. The map is too unfavorably. National polls aren't great for the GOP, but thankfully places like California are irrelevant.
Nolan Russell
i can't wait
Ethan Barnes
mass homicide is ok too
Colton Green
Never underestimate your enemy, no matter the situation.
Gabriel Sanders
>Worst of all for Dems, a 15-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot in December (51/36) is now down to two points (47/45) Crying about "muh Moore" only holds people's attention for so long, not to mention the blatant oversampling of Democrats in polls, approval ratings, and other failed attempts to demoralize conservatives over the last several years. >This equals the smallest Democratic advantage in any poll since the beginning of the current election cycle This is good. With oversampling taken into consideration, it means we may just see a red wave yet. I hope the polls continue to coddle Dems so they remain complacent. I want to see my barely blue state turn red.
Never forget the moment in SOTU when Trump and the Republicans BTFO'D Democrats. Republicans chanting USA while Democrats ran out the building. Democrats are nothing more than Marxist Jews, Niggers and Illegals that hate our country and want to see it burn. They are jealous because they never fought for their country, and do not care about the people in it.
Caleb Howard
They blew all their money on literally who races, they’re fucked
Joshua Ortiz
>I thought
Bullshit. You never think.
Charles Cox
>Republicans win 2018, 2020, 2022
I honestly don't know what the fuck the Dems would do if we had 8 straight years of Trump/Rep dominance
Nicholas Harris
>November 2018 >Democrats have only minimal gains; GOP retains control of the House and Senate
Tell me, would the schadenfreude be comparable to the 2016 presidential election? Liberals now somehow seem even more confident of a 'blue wave' this year than they did back in October 2016 with Hillary Clinton's chances.
Jaxon Lopez
the DNC vote does not end at death
Jeremiah Perez
The dems think because they beat a pedophile in Alabama than they’ll win all across the country, it’s sad really
Nathan Cruz
>Sup Forums says polls are fake news >HAHAHAHA polls say Democrats are losingTake taht librtard cucks!
Elijah Clark
If Trump's didn't cause it, I don't know what will.
Christopher James
I expect the House to only have marginal changes one way or the other, and the Senate to change +3/4 R.
Chase Hill
There's not actually anything on the line at this point. What use is there to fake it.
On top of this, you are a faggot retard to imply we were wrong, given how you dumbfucks were saying "muh 98% hillary victory" and lost. Then again, we knew you were mentally disabled and defective, you're a leftist
Brody Davis
Dude, they're gonna go full terrorist once they lose the midterms. They will honestly think it's a fascist takeover and start killing GOP congressmen. Look at what has already happened.
>Scalise shooting >Rand Paul tackled, ribs broken >GOP train somehow collides into a dump truck
Parker Davis
>Worst of all for Dems, a 15-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot in December (51/36) is now down to two points (47/45).
This is because Americans got to have Christmas, and see under their trees how much better they were doing.
Them winning in the first place is an uphill battle, it's really hard to get most libs to show up at the voting booth if there isn't a president to vote for at the same time.
Meanwhile the cornerstone of reliable voters are the elderly, who predominantly vote R.
Samuel Bell
538 had good polls though.
Yes they gave 28% chance of Trump winning, but 28% is still very probable. He had more chance of winning than you to roll a 6 on a dice.
Owen Gutierrez
And even if they weren't broke, they're defending a huge number of Senate seats in DEEP trump country. Not saying the republicans can't still fuck it up, but they have nothing to be excited for coming up next year.
Joshua Thomas
NATE BRONZE commented on this last night.
Rs still likely to lose House seats but chance of it flipping is now 50/50.
Even Sean Trende who has been bullish on Dem prospects is starting to tone it down.
Historically the party in power loses seats in the first midterms, it's hard to counter that so expect it to happen, however it's the flipping of Congress we need to work to prevent.
Hudson Walker
Good, it just means that we won't actually have to do anything and they will for fucking sure paint themselves into a corner.
Matthew Scott
The biggest threat to Republicans is their own retirements.
We're up to 36 incumbents leaving now.
That's the biggest danger.
The new political climate is simply tough to campaign in for normie politicians, not everyone can stand being called racist, fascist, homophobic, etc
Aaron Richardson
>Even rigged pols say the Dems are fucked
What a time to be alive.
Christopher Clark
Democrats are fucked. They've made it clear they're the Minority First party, they have to keep shifting farther left to placate their base, and the economy is doing very well and the opp party almost never wins when the economy is doing well.
Blue wave will be Blue Balls
Leo Rivera
They'd watch the Grammies and Hulu to comfort themselves.
Blake Richardson
Passing tax reform, framing immigration and upcoming infrastructure proposals are going to be very hard for Dems to run against.
Collectively, action from Republicans is reframing the narratives. And this is on the background of an excellent economy and job market.
Dems only hope is well, Mueller.
Christian Johnson
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Carter Powell
I can't wait. They're just holding on to this tiny thread of hope of a blue wave comeback. It's all that keeps them going, all they have left. Seeing their last bit of hope crushed will fill me with so much satisfaction.
Landon Thompson
Just like the election these polls are meaningless and there was no proof democrats are ahead or republicans...all politics is local and there is a reason incumbents win almost all the time...it’s all bullshit
Andrew Myers
Don't forget, the Memo is about to be released. Hopefully it's got enough meat to whip the republican base, and some independents, into a frenzy. Will get people to the polls.
And in a week Round 2 of the Shutdown/DACA fight resumes. Trump threw a strong punch out last night by offering his DACA immigration deal. Let's see the Democrats shut the government down in the face of that. Especially as they have NO, ZERO, 0 willingness to compromise even a tiny bit on a DACA deal, even when Trump's offering 3x as many dreamers citizenship. They won't give anything, and it'll piss everyone off.
I'm pretty hype going into 2018. The only way things could get better is if Ginsburg or another leftie supreme court justice dies.
Gavin Stewart
>The probablility was greater than 0 so the polls werer right and fair!
You could see the look on his face on election night, dude did not expect it at all.
Hunter Brooks
...
Jack James
The difference is, Sup Forums is always right. >Except (You)
David Gray
Normally this is the case however the districts are drawn in favor of republicans for hosue seats so it's VERY unlikely they lose the house, there's just more land that's republican compared to democratic.
Also the shear amount of Democrats up for re-election is not looking good for them.
Brandon Watson
They are welcome to start it, but it's our beta to that point then we will finish what needs to be done
Levi Ramirez
Nobody watches Trump speak. Nobody. So his shitty speech did nothing for him.
Next.
Parker Ross
The truth is that when the tax bill passed, the dems were defeated for this go around. The masses aren’t so brainwashed that they can overlook personal gain for trivial moral lies sold by the dem machine. As the Dems continue to double down on obvious lies and fake allegations, the plebs are increasingly noticing and realizing that they are being fed lies by the truckload.
The dems will have to reinvent themselves for the next generation. Consider 2018 1980.
Christian King
Republicans should win bigly but your local state Republicans have been fucking up their states for years with Koch brothers and globalists unfortunately. These fucks do more damage to the overall voting than Trump would ever do. If states strangely go blue in red country, look at the state elections for the reason.
Worst President in history. We are killing the GOP forever!
/thread
Camden Price
I think there are a couple of house seats in Illinois that could flip red with a little national support.
Adrian Taylor
/thread
Nolan Cooper
>winning >not losing the popular vote >not having approval less than 50 >do we have debt? why should wal mart pay any taxes? i like degeneracy and publicly funded performance bonuses and lay offs for no reason >has anything bad ever happened after this sort of shit has been pulled? >nah; dems are extinct; i love jews >no wall >they knew what they signed up for >adultery >rocket man is a peace narrative >being weak guarantees you war >i hate nukes >muh fake news muh fake jews that i love >repeat ad nauseum >indictments and on. and on. and on. and on. and on. and so forth and so on. all fake. all brainwashing. all goebbels and turkey necks. long live haavara and epstein
Samuel Rogers
FEC filings you faggot cunt
Nathaniel Lewis
this I'm honestly amazed the "unskewed polls" shtick didn't stick around after the 2012 and 2016 elections. but more to the point January has been a relatively quiet month on the controversy front, and has been able to bask in good economic news and the tax bill companies throwing out bonuses (then laying people off lmao), I'm waiting until july before I start caring about generic polls on voter intentions
Jace Brown
THIS! The RNC better crank out some solid, winnable candidates...no Romney/McCain-types need apply.
If you are in a state that has any races later this year...get involved. Keep track of the Republican primary candidates and races. Get your NEET friends out of the basement...pick up your grannies after she washed her hair for the week and get'em to the voting booth.
John Lopez
Maybe the big problem will be 30+ Republicans not going for re-election.
Michael Butler
...
Ian Myers
SAD!
Ethan Sanchez
That's good news.
Per Charles Cook polling website, the Dems need a minimum 7-9% advantage in the midterms to win the House. Two percent will not be enough.
The economy is going to continue to grow, and Trump will get more credit for that with voters.
The DOJ and FBI are going to be investigated for their corrupt activities during the election, and Mueller is going to crash and burn as the basis for his investigation, the Steele dossier, is revealed to have been essentially fraudulent.
If Trump and the GOP can avoid catastrophic mistakes from now to November, they should be well positioned to maintain and increase increase their control over both houses of Congress.
Christopher Walker
That's probably what's going to happen senpai. GOP will leave a few seats in the house but win big in the Senate.
Jordan Bell
Correct, me bong. Actually it isn't even just intentional (though the gerrymandering helps too). The GOP always overperforms by a few points due to the comparative concentration of their voters. American Liberals whine about this but it isn't the GOP's fault, the Democrats are complicit. They love their 90% black districts that can be handed down to sons and nephews. So during the best of times, the Democrats is playing with a stacked deck. If the vote is within 4% there's absolutely no chance at all. D+6 would be a nailbiter.
Mason Garcia
12 months. whores. natural barriers. 1,500 billion added to the tab. and daca
Lucas Reyes
Expect more sexual harassments. 3 of Canada's politicians have already been taken out.
David Myers
Of course the dems are losing. That's what happens when you openly oppose policies that benefit many overlooked Americans. I mean, did you see the State of Union Address? When Trump announced that there was record low black unemployment, there was literally only one black congressman clapping. The other sat there frowning looking angry. It's as if they hate to help their own constituents.
Leo Anderson
>Probably 15% Democrat over sampling. there are more democrats than republicans.
But they're claiming donations are going to candidates instead of the DNC. I don't think either would do well.
Robert Robinson
Yaaaaas Queen!
John Torres
retard displaced r/politics shill.
sad.
Gavin Barnes
15% more?
Leo Sullivan
youre hemorrhaging jobs there bud
Jaxson Taylor
I should add to this that the key to midterms is who can motivate their base to vote in an off year election, normally the conservatives have an edge but liberals have been in autistic screeching fire mode, the question is 1: will the liberal energy dissipate (I'd say no but who knows) and 2: will the republicans be able to motivate their base (maybe, juries out on this one)
Hunter Hill
...
Ryan Sanchez
If Minnesota can kick that retard klobuchar out of office than anything is possible. I doubt she'll lose, but if the presidential election showed anything it's that even cunts like her can lose.
William Cooper
They don't have enough honor for that.
Cameron Perez
Remember when Dems tried to pivot. Better jobs better ingredients better pizza? Was that it? All I know is that they sure got those trannies into the army.
Justin Jackson
clean, disgusting coal
Brandon Ortiz
>the absolute STATE of the DNC
Elijah Wilson
>lying on the internet Jobs are up, more importantly so are wages, bonuses, and opportunities. Pull the dildo out of your ass and apply for a job and even your lame ass can be employed.
Daniel Stewart
>NATE BRONZE: Rs still likely to lose House seats but chance of it flipping is now 50/50.
I was very worried by what appeared to be a growing blue wave in the fourth quarter of 2017, combined with historical trend of the President's party losing House seats in the midterms.
But the Dems have been losing momentum, and the narrative is changing. The economy is doing well and Trump is being "normalized" among all but the most diehard anti-Trump voters. Barring a seismic event, I'm feeling pretty good about the GOP's chances in 2018.
Jace Myers
When really the polls just scared more whites into coming out to vote for trump. t.ohioian (purple state)
Luke Watson
They only like the fake polls that had hillfag up by a bajillion points. Kys lefty faggots.
Evan Fisher
The poll niggers still have Dems up 2. What a scam of an industry when everyone realizes dem +2 means reps are ahead.
Jeremiah Rivera
a shitton of dems are retiring too alot of people in general are not running again, it's surprising really.
Ian Sullivan
hoover was crap. bush was crap. this is going to be crap. period. trillion dollar deficits. hundreds of thousands of private sectors. gone. just like this past september. first time in like 500 years it seems. all these uphill good climbs are obama's. the fat elephant jew party will kill everything permanently. who's going to recover those taxes. how is he not an antichrist. since when does bible enjoy allegedly rich people? he lies his cunt off. and i dont understand your cult like attachment. bibi blows up shit. bibi gives you browns. all roads lead to bibi. and nobody on the left likes bibi. back to the slaves freeing i guess
Caleb Price
DNC on their last $200k. JUST
Carter Gonzalez
better initiate protocol greater israel. just like the other hitlery asshole. and the pedos. my my. the God damn pedos...
Justin Ortiz
...
Joseph Kelly
I like it, but I don't trust it. A lot can change in ten months--just look at Trump. Let's see how the memo plays out. If it's a deathblow to Mueller like I hope, I think we're okay.
Josiah Hill
>sodomite >arguing Bible Romans 1 says you're completely full of lies and can't comprehend your way out of a piss filled ball pit, I guess it was right. Small business confidence hasn't been this high in our life times. Go capitalize faggot.
Sebastian Phillips
Yeah that's what I meant, you get highly populated cities that go Dem. It's just the nature of it. Aside from California there just isn't enough land to hold enough cities to get democratic representatives.
And as I said before the 2018 elections correspond to people who went out and voted for obama in 2012, those same people aren't coming out for midterms to re-elect those senators. Mid-terms generally favor Republican right?
2022 will be a somewhat scary year since that's when you got people elected in by Trump, luckily it's mid term.
Caleb Roberts
And our retirements make it not good for us.
Hopefully with the party more unified and Trump as the new normal standard bearer they are ready to put up a big fight.
Brandon Parker
Go back to r/politics.
Oh, you can't.
Sucks to be a shill, huh?
Jonathan Stewart
#Bloowaife 2018!
Aiden Thompson
only half the amount of democrats though and the level of republican chairman retiring has been crazy, these are people who in even hopeful circumstances would be sticking around to keep power tripping, but the fact they're bailing shows that they at least were of the belief 2018 would be grim for the house (the senate will at best be a draw unless it's a dem wave of fucking epic proportions) now whether the environment is the same by november is a different matter >Mid-terms generally favor Republican right? normally, but the dems have been waaay overperforming on turnout while republicans have been underperforming relative to normal midterms, which is how you got a democrat winning alabama and their blowout in Virginia (their margin gains in other state seats and shit has been impressive too).