'Blue Wave' canceled

>It’s just one poll from one polling outlet (albeit one given an A+ rating for accuracy and sound methodology by FiveThirtyEight). But for Democrats already concerned about the love shown the president in snap polls following last night’s State of the Union address, the first 2018 national survey from Monmouth University lands like a punch in the mouth.

>Worst of all for Dems, a 15-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot in December (51/36) is now down to two points (47/45). This equals the smallest Democratic advantage in any poll since the beginning of the current election cycle.

nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/01/a-new-poll-looks-mighty-grim-for-democrats.html

Other urls found in this thread:

youtube.com/watch?v=87Tb_ZL8Zrk
money.cnn.com/2018/01/31/media/state-of-the-union-television-ratings/index.html
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00010603/1202494/
twitter.com/SFWRedditGifs

That plus the DNC is broke.

>polls are reliable and trustworthy only when they benefit me

t. Sup Forums

When biased polls don't even favor the dems anymore, they've got a problem.

you cant even use logical fallacies correctly lol

Probably 15% Democrat over sampling.

Oh how hilarious it would be after all the hype from leftists on social media and in the mainstream media the federal gains made by the Democratic Party in the 2018 midterms was just a few U.S. House seats (while losing seats in the U.S. Senate.)

>Sup Forums is one person

If the democrats lose in 2018 expect mass suicide

This is how we win. Satan calls his own

We've never said they're unreliable and untrustworthy. We said they're rigged. 2016 election proved us right. Consistently 10+ advantage throughout 2016 for Hilcunt and the shitcunt lost.

They're going to lose Senate seats. The map is too unfavorably. National polls aren't great for the GOP, but thankfully places like California are irrelevant.

i can't wait

mass homicide is ok too

Never underestimate your enemy, no matter the situation.

>Worst of all for Dems, a 15-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot in December (51/36) is now down to two points (47/45)
Crying about "muh Moore" only holds people's attention for so long, not to mention the blatant oversampling of Democrats in polls, approval ratings, and other failed attempts to demoralize conservatives over the last several years.
>This equals the smallest Democratic advantage in any poll since the beginning of the current election cycle
This is good. With oversampling taken into consideration, it means we may just see a red wave yet.
I hope the polls continue to coddle Dems so they remain complacent. I want to see my barely blue state turn red.

youtube.com/watch?v=87Tb_ZL8Zrk

Never forget the moment in SOTU when Trump and the Republicans BTFO'D Democrats. Republicans chanting USA while Democrats ran out the building. Democrats are nothing more than Marxist Jews, Niggers and Illegals that hate our country and want to see it burn. They are jealous because they never fought for their country, and do not care about the people in it.

They blew all their money on literally who races, they’re fucked

>I thought

Bullshit. You never think.

>Republicans win 2018, 2020, 2022

I honestly don't know what the fuck the Dems would do if we had 8 straight years of Trump/Rep dominance

>November 2018
>Democrats have only minimal gains; GOP retains control of the House and Senate

Tell me, would the schadenfreude be comparable to the 2016 presidential election? Liberals now somehow seem even more confident of a 'blue wave' this year than they did back in October 2016 with Hillary Clinton's chances.

the DNC vote does not end at death

The dems think because they beat a pedophile in Alabama than they’ll win all across the country, it’s sad really

>Sup Forums says polls are fake news
>HAHAHAHA polls say Democrats are losingTake taht librtard cucks!

If Trump's didn't cause it, I don't know what will.

I expect the House to only have marginal changes one way or the other, and the Senate to change +3/4 R.

There's not actually anything on the line at this point. What use is there to fake it.

On top of this, you are a faggot retard to imply we were wrong, given how you dumbfucks were saying "muh 98% hillary victory" and lost. Then again, we knew you were mentally disabled and defective, you're a leftist

Dude, they're gonna go full terrorist once they lose the midterms.
They will honestly think it's a fascist takeover and start killing GOP congressmen. Look at what has already happened.

>Scalise shooting
>Rand Paul tackled, ribs broken
>GOP train somehow collides into a dump truck

>Worst of all for Dems, a 15-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot in December (51/36) is now down to two points (47/45).

This is because Americans got to have Christmas, and see under their trees how much better they were doing.

ahahahahahahahahahhahahahahhahahahhahahahahahhahhahahahahhahhahahahhahahhahahhahahhahahahhahahhahahahahhahahhahahhahahahhahahahhahahhahahhahahhahahahahhahha

Them winning in the first place is an uphill battle, it's really hard to get most libs to show up at the voting booth if there isn't a president to vote for at the same time.

Meanwhile the cornerstone of reliable voters are the elderly, who predominantly vote R.

538 had good polls though.

Yes they gave 28% chance of Trump winning, but 28% is still very probable. He had more chance of winning than you to roll a 6 on a dice.

And even if they weren't broke, they're defending a huge number of Senate seats in DEEP trump country. Not saying the republicans can't still fuck it up, but they have nothing to be excited for coming up next year.

NATE BRONZE commented on this last night.

Rs still likely to lose House seats but chance of it flipping is now 50/50.

Even Sean Trende who has been bullish on Dem prospects is starting to tone it down.

Historically the party in power loses seats in the first midterms, it's hard to counter that so expect it to happen, however it's the flipping of Congress we need to work to prevent.

Good, it just means that we won't actually have to do anything and they will for fucking sure paint themselves into a corner.

The biggest threat to Republicans is their own retirements.

We're up to 36 incumbents leaving now.

That's the biggest danger.

The new political climate is simply tough to campaign in for normie politicians, not everyone can stand being called racist, fascist, homophobic, etc

>Even rigged pols say the Dems are fucked

What a time to be alive.

Democrats are fucked. They've made it clear they're the Minority First party, they have to keep shifting farther left to placate their base, and the economy is doing very well and the opp party almost never wins when the economy is doing well.

Blue wave will be Blue Balls

They'd watch the Grammies and Hulu to comfort themselves.

Passing tax reform, framing immigration and upcoming infrastructure proposals are going to be very hard for Dems to run against.

Collectively, action from Republicans is reframing the narratives. And this is on the background of an excellent economy and job market.

Dems only hope is well, Mueller.

WHATS THE MATTER GUYS!? DON'T YOU LIKE THOSE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?HOW BOUT THE POLLS? HOW BOUT THE POLLS?

I can't wait. They're just holding on to this tiny thread of hope of a blue wave comeback. It's all that keeps them going, all they have left. Seeing their last bit of hope crushed will fill me with so much satisfaction.

Just like the election these polls are meaningless and there was no proof democrats are ahead or republicans...all politics is local and there is a reason incumbents win almost all the time...it’s all bullshit

Don't forget, the Memo is about to be released. Hopefully it's got enough meat to whip the republican base, and some independents, into a frenzy. Will get people to the polls.

And in a week Round 2 of the Shutdown/DACA fight resumes. Trump threw a strong punch out last night by offering his DACA immigration deal. Let's see the Democrats shut the government down in the face of that. Especially as they have NO, ZERO, 0 willingness to compromise even a tiny bit on a DACA deal, even when Trump's offering 3x as many dreamers citizenship. They won't give anything, and it'll piss everyone off.

I'm pretty hype going into 2018. The only way things could get better is if Ginsburg or another leftie supreme court justice dies.

>The probablility was greater than 0 so the polls werer right and fair!

You could see the look on his face on election night, dude did not expect it at all.

...

The difference is, Sup Forums is always right.
>Except (You)

Normally this is the case however the districts are drawn in favor of republicans for hosue seats so it's VERY unlikely they lose the house, there's just more land that's republican compared to democratic.

Also the shear amount of Democrats up for re-election is not looking good for them.

They are welcome to start it, but it's our beta to that point then we will finish what needs to be done

Nobody watches Trump speak. Nobody. So his shitty speech did nothing for him.

Next.

The truth is that when the tax bill passed, the dems were defeated for this go around. The masses aren’t so brainwashed that they can overlook personal gain for trivial moral lies sold by the dem machine. As the Dems continue to double down on obvious lies and fake allegations, the plebs are increasingly noticing and realizing that they are being fed lies by the truckload.

The dems will have to reinvent themselves for the next generation. Consider 2018 1980.

Republicans should win bigly but your local state Republicans have been fucking up their states for years with Koch brothers and globalists unfortunately. These fucks do more damage to the overall voting than Trump would ever do. If states strangely go blue in red country, look at the state elections for the reason.

Citation needed, shill.

money.cnn.com/2018/01/31/media/state-of-the-union-television-ratings/index.html

Worst President in history. We are killing the GOP forever!

/thread

I think there are a couple of house seats in Illinois that could flip red with a little national support.

/thread

>winning
>not losing the popular vote
>not having approval less than 50
>do we have debt? why should wal mart pay any taxes? i like degeneracy and publicly funded performance bonuses and lay offs for no reason
>has anything bad ever happened after this sort of shit has been pulled?
>nah; dems are extinct; i love jews
>no wall
>they knew what they signed up for
>adultery
>rocket man is a peace narrative
>being weak guarantees you war
>i hate nukes
>muh fake news muh fake jews that i love
>repeat ad nauseum
>indictments
and on. and on. and on. and on. and on. and so forth and so on. all fake. all brainwashing. all goebbels and turkey necks. long live haavara and epstein

FEC filings you faggot cunt

this
I'm honestly amazed the "unskewed polls" shtick didn't stick around after the 2012 and 2016 elections.
but more to the point January has been a relatively quiet month on the controversy front, and has been able to bask in good economic news and the tax bill companies throwing out bonuses (then laying people off lmao), I'm waiting until july before I start caring about generic polls on voter intentions

THIS! The RNC better crank out some solid, winnable candidates...no Romney/McCain-types need apply.

If you are in a state that has any races later this year...get involved. Keep track of the Republican primary candidates and races. Get your NEET friends out of the basement...pick up your grannies after she washed her hair for the week and get'em to the voting booth.

Maybe the big problem will be 30+ Republicans not going for re-election.

...

SAD!

That's good news.

Per Charles Cook polling website, the Dems need a minimum 7-9% advantage in the midterms to win the House. Two percent will not be enough.

The economy is going to continue to grow, and Trump will get more credit for that with voters.

The DOJ and FBI are going to be investigated for their corrupt activities during the election, and Mueller is going to crash and burn as the basis for his investigation, the Steele dossier, is revealed to have been essentially fraudulent.

If Trump and the GOP can avoid catastrophic mistakes from now to November, they should be well positioned to maintain and increase increase their control over both houses of Congress.

That's probably what's going to happen senpai. GOP will leave a few seats in the house but win big in the Senate.

Correct, me bong. Actually it isn't even just intentional (though the gerrymandering helps too). The GOP always overperforms by a few points due to the comparative concentration of their voters. American Liberals whine about this but it isn't the GOP's fault, the Democrats are complicit. They love their 90% black districts that can be handed down to sons and nephews.
So during the best of times, the Democrats is playing with a stacked deck. If the vote is within 4% there's absolutely no chance at all. D+6 would be a nailbiter.

12 months. whores. natural barriers. 1,500 billion added to the tab. and daca

Expect more sexual harassments. 3 of Canada's politicians have already been taken out.

Of course the dems are losing. That's what happens when you openly oppose policies that benefit many overlooked Americans. I mean, did you see the State of Union Address? When Trump announced that there was record low black unemployment, there was literally only one black congressman clapping. The other sat there frowning looking angry. It's as if they hate to help their own constituents.

>Probably 15% Democrat over sampling.
there are more democrats than republicans.

see

docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00010603/1202494/

But they're claiming donations are going to candidates instead of the DNC. I don't think either would do well.

Yaaaaas Queen!

retard displaced r/politics shill.

sad.

15% more?

youre hemorrhaging jobs there bud

I should add to this that the key to midterms is who can motivate their base to vote in an off year election, normally the conservatives have an edge but liberals have been in autistic screeching fire mode, the question is 1: will the liberal energy dissipate (I'd say no but who knows) and 2: will the republicans be able to motivate their base (maybe, juries out on this one)

...

If Minnesota can kick that retard klobuchar out of office than anything is possible. I doubt she'll lose, but if the presidential election showed anything it's that even cunts like her can lose.

They don't have enough honor for that.

Remember when Dems tried to pivot. Better jobs better ingredients better pizza? Was that it? All I know is that they sure got those trannies into the army.

clean, disgusting coal

>the absolute STATE of the DNC

>lying on the internet
Jobs are up, more importantly so are wages, bonuses, and opportunities. Pull the dildo out of your ass and apply for a job and even your lame ass can be employed.

>NATE BRONZE: Rs still likely to lose House seats but chance of it flipping is now 50/50.

I was very worried by what appeared to be a growing blue wave in the fourth quarter of 2017, combined with historical trend of the President's party losing House seats in the midterms.

But the Dems have been losing momentum, and the narrative is changing. The economy is doing well and Trump is being "normalized" among all but the most diehard anti-Trump voters. Barring a seismic event, I'm feeling pretty good about the GOP's chances in 2018.

When really the polls just scared more whites into coming out to vote for trump.
t.ohioian (purple state)

They only like the fake polls that had hillfag up by a bajillion points. Kys lefty faggots.

The poll niggers still have Dems up 2. What a scam of an industry when everyone realizes dem +2 means reps are ahead.

a shitton of dems are retiring too
alot of people in general are not running again, it's surprising really.

hoover was crap. bush was crap. this is going to be crap. period. trillion dollar deficits. hundreds of thousands of private sectors. gone. just like this past september. first time in like 500 years it seems. all these uphill good climbs are obama's. the fat elephant jew party will kill everything permanently. who's going to recover those taxes. how is he not an antichrist. since when does bible enjoy allegedly rich people? he lies his cunt off. and i dont understand your cult like attachment. bibi blows up shit. bibi gives you browns. all roads lead to bibi. and nobody on the left likes bibi. back to the slaves freeing i guess

DNC on their last $200k. JUST

better initiate protocol greater israel. just like the other hitlery asshole. and the pedos. my my. the God damn pedos...

...

I like it, but I don't trust it. A lot can change in ten months--just look at Trump. Let's see how the memo plays out. If it's a deathblow to Mueller like I hope, I think we're okay.

>sodomite
>arguing Bible
Romans 1 says you're completely full of lies and can't comprehend your way out of a piss filled ball pit, I guess it was right.
Small business confidence hasn't been this high in our life times. Go capitalize faggot.

Yeah that's what I meant, you get highly populated cities that go Dem. It's just the nature of it. Aside from California there just isn't enough land to hold enough cities to get democratic representatives.

And as I said before the 2018 elections correspond to people who went out and voted for obama in 2012, those same people aren't coming out for midterms to re-elect those senators. Mid-terms generally favor Republican right?

2022 will be a somewhat scary year since that's when you got people elected in by Trump, luckily it's mid term.

And our retirements make it not good for us.

Hopefully with the party more unified and Trump as the new normal standard bearer they are ready to put up a big fight.

Go back to r/politics.

Oh, you can't.

Sucks to be a shill, huh?

#Bloowaife 2018!

only half the amount of democrats though
and the level of republican chairman retiring has been crazy, these are people who in even hopeful circumstances would be sticking around to keep power tripping, but the fact they're bailing shows that they at least were of the belief 2018 would be grim for the house (the senate will at best be a draw unless it's a dem wave of fucking epic proportions)
now whether the environment is the same by november is a different matter
>Mid-terms generally favor Republican right?
normally, but the dems have been waaay overperforming on turnout while republicans have been underperforming relative to normal midterms, which is how you got a democrat winning alabama and their blowout in Virginia (their margin gains in other state seats and shit has been impressive too).