Why didn't this happen?

why didn't this happen?

Other urls found in this thread:

middleeasteye.net/news/kurds-syria-confront-syrian-regime-their-unofficial-capital-880343545
youtube.com/watch?v=C-CocsaTfAE
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

Fuckin' German always thinking about pincer attacks.

Arabs can't into tactics

Because kurds are advancing toward Raqqa.

and wtf is this?

That's the Kilis area where ISIS keeps shooting rockets that end up falling into turkish farmlands. Erdogan got fed up and is now carpetbombing ISIS niggers

though i dont know shit it could be that there are natural barriers in the way that prevent that.

why is there a green zone more or less parallel to the border that wasn't there two weeks ago?

>after all that shit talk isis is losing
lmao

Green is the color for rebels so I'd say Turkmen rebels took the area

>why would a group trying to gain independence help a leader who refuses it
HMMMMMMMMMMMMM

I know we, as westerners, view ISIS as the biggest threat, so we think of everyone putting their pride aside and fight against ISIS, but that's not at all the case. The Kurds don't care about ISIS as long as they get their own country. The rebels don't care about ISIS as long as they manage to overthrow Assad.

but didn't the Syrian Kurds say they would stay part of Syria and even back Assad for some time?

Kurdistan is already happening, unlike the rebels who continually get btfo by russians, SAA and Hezbollah. No need to talk about ISIS. They declared emergency state in Raqqa as YPG units are only miles away, beside launching suicide attacks left and right like absolute madmen.

middleeasteye.net/news/kurds-syria-confront-syrian-regime-their-unofficial-capital-880343545

This has been going on for several years. They'll agree to not go after each other, then a few months later one side attacks the other and all bets are off for a few months until they make the agreement again.

SAA attempted to advance on Deir Ezzor and rescue the city, but recent IS gains have forced them to abandon it and deal with IS north of Palmyra. Kurds were supposed to be waiting for the SAA advance on Deir Ezzor to launch an attack on Manbij, but since the SAA failed they have to come up with a new plan

either there is enough infrastructure in the north to remain viable or there isn't enough infrastructure to support troops in the pincer

Because SAA and Kurds are also killing each other in some areas.

...

>SAA been holding Dei Ezzor foi 5 years while surround by IS

wew

Isis isn't actually a strong force.
They had tremendous success in Irak because the iraki army was disorganized and feeble. The guys basically fled at the first sign of combat. they were mostly sunni conscripts in for the money and weren't willing to die at all for a government they bareluy recognized, and especially not against fellow sunnis, or sunnis extremists known for their barbary.

isis has dedicated soldiers and relatively good lines of steady supply which is great for taking blocks one after another with guerilla and harassment against less prepared/dedicated adversaries.
That's why they are stalling against strong willed peshmergas in the north and failing against profesionally trained Assad's army.
Also they don't have much heavy equipment for full out offensive on a cwell defended city, and are not willing to mass too much troops/pickups in the open because they would be very vulnerable to air bombing from pretty miuch everybody now (assad, Putin, Turkey, and western forces).
They are much better in complex urban area where forces are intertwined in small spaces where bombs would cause too much FF and civilian casualties to be used.

Okay many factors here.
>That move has little to no strategic interest,
you'd cut some ISIS lines in the north and maybe make it easier for kurds to claim those lands, but Al-bab and its neighborhood are small rural towns. Some food crops from around dayr Hafir maybe but nothing of high value.
Manbij has some interest for the archeological artifacts they dig around and sell there, but honestly it's not vital to daesh.The oil fields near Deir Ezzor or the populated areas paying tax in Mossul or raqquah are much more valuable strategic assets

>Kurds and Assad have very little intentions of working together
To do a proper offensive you'd need some real comunication and strategic exchanges between them, and neither is disposed to give detailed information on their movements and troops to the other. They are observing some sort of peace right now as Assad is playing the card of a fractionned country after things settle, leaving autonomy to kurds in the north, but still he fought them for decades and there's blood between them.
>you'd expose yourself to a pincer attack from ISIS
having their lines extended , this corridor would be weak and vulnerable to a combined attack from north and south:

So why the fuck would two enemies cooperate to open a useless coridor between them, that would not hurt ISIS that much and, by extending their lines, make them vulnerable to assault?

To finally close the supply line from Turkey to Raqqa. If Kerry and Lawrow would agree on this via a simple phone call, it would be done within weeks.

And finally, as this guy pointed out
The current offensive on Raqqa is a much more interesting move.

An interesting move would be for Assad loyalists to move some troops along the 42 highway from Al Salamiyah to cut supplies line on the south of Raqqa and seize Al tabqa dam and the bridges on the euphrate for example.
This would help a great deal the offensive coming from the north and make the siege faster while not having to coordinate too much and avoid direct contacts.

Taking Raqqa from ISIS will be a great victory as it cuts a big tax supply and it is their proclaimed capital. A lot of the establishment would have to flee or would be killed, vastly damaging morale around the rest of their dominion.

But what would happen next, who keeps Raqqa? It's predominantly sunni arabs, kurds won't be able to hold it long, and handing it to Assad really doesn't seem a smart move now.

Anyway, his troops are too busy sieging Homs to move north on this axis anyway...

>who keeps Raqqa?
give it to the Saudis, who fucking cares

Indeed, it would weaken their oil smugling through the border.
But it is smugling, I don't think a thin coridor spread that much, between former beligerant, would be that effective at deterring SISI smugglers. It is like 40km of continous desert, you can't exactly stop them even by patrolling the big roads, but it would slow the flow.
Honestly anything north of lake assad isn't of much strategical value beside that.

Maybe you'd weaken ISIS position in the north and help the FSA retake Dabbiq, that would be a blow to their morale too, as it is one of the centerpieces of their crazy apocalyptical doctrine.
They literally believe that the "army of rome" (ie the west) will come to fight them in the plain near Dabbiq and that, at the verge of defeat, the christ will be resurected and lead them to victory. That's why theyr proaganda magazine is called Dabbiq btw.

But on overall that's a bit far reaching and does not outweight the risks.

that's because we kept thinking like that that irak turned into such an horrible mess.
Who keeps what and with what forces do they enfoce their control are tremendously important questions to avoid having to come back to clean again in 10 years..
Kurds are strong willed and efficient at fighting isis when equipped by us, but they have no legitimacy outside of the northern fringes, arabs won't tolerate being under their control (and they have no wish to exert such control) so they would rebel fast against any peshmerga administration as the sunnis did against the shiite government in Irak, or at least turned a blind complascent eye toward rebels.

T*rks would get mad

No they are not. They are not going for Raqqa at all.

What's left of the "moderate" FSA.

>Turkey fighting ISIS

Hahahaha yes and America was fighting terrorism in Afghanistan 1985.

They really are not.

Also, you realize they are facing the coalition of everyone+Russia+Iran+Hezbollah?

It's been 2 years and 3 months since the coalition started.

literally the one easy way to remove ISIS is to recognize kurds internationally and fund their offensive
only issue is Turkey would turn inside out with rage

Let's not forget that the "moderate" FSA broke the Allepo ceasefire and attacked (and took) Al-Eis in the meantime.

This alongside ISIS near Shaer oil field, made the SAA forces have to split up and end their drive to Dier.

Giant castles are easy to defend when a river goes through them and 200,000 people live there.

ISIS is also not able to focus directly on it. Why would it send everyone into a meatgrinder just to gain a little more of the city?

Hahaha but they actually are. Just this time it's small but constant attacks. Crazy fuckers

alright whats the down side

It would close ISIS supply line to Turkey, and the Kurds and SAA are not enemies. They are neutral.

Get your facts straight Jose.

Why the fuck does Turkey hate the Kurds again? It has to be more than just them wanting independence

how in all honesty would they be able to survive with on-land supply routes being blockaded?
whoever is in charge there must be the next syrian minister of defense

Kurds and SAA had clashes a few days ago in the middle of a city.

see
actually the US is pressuring them to probe toward it.
Same thing going for Mossul in Irak btw (but there it will probably be a iraki army push, supervised and backboned by the US)

few weeks ago*
It's a fight for territories, so yes they are enemies.

You forgot one thing.

Raqqa is extremely pro-ISIS and full of their best fighters.

Whoever attacks Raqqa is going to get thousands of dead no matter what.

The Kurds are going to stop short of Raqqa, but they will not enter it. Just like with Mosul.

Raqqa is Arab land. The Kurds know that if they attack it they will be sending thousands of Arabs into ISIS hands.

Racism, Erdogan's pride, and Kurds being faggots.

as I said in my post they are currently neutral indeed, but there is a lot of bad blood between them from the past, when president of Syria Assad heavily fought kurdish independantists.
Enough tension between them for clash to errupt along the borders of their controlled territory.

These factions have no will to work together and no love for each other. Active efficient Cooperation between them is wishful thinking

No. That was NDF versus PKK. Different groups.

Also, lmao the FSA and JaN fight everyday.... Yet you would call them allies.

The simple fact is that the SAA and Kurds have barely fought each other relative to all the other groups in Syria. If there is a neutral relationship in Syria, it's between the government and the kurds.

Qallasuh, Hasakah, and other places where the Kurds surround SAA/NDF forces.... have been stable for years now. If they were enemies, the Kurds would have easily removed the SAA/NDF.
There's ample evidence of that.

except neither side has any inclination of creating new enemies, why would kurds or syrians make enemies out of any more neighbours?

We are. But they will stop at its doorstep just like with Mosul.

Why conquer an Arab city that will guarantee thousands of your people's deaths? Keep slowly pushing towards it, and you get US support and arms. Something you need for the eventual Kurd-Turkey war.

because, as I said earlier about the krauts plan, supply lines aren't everything if you have some local means of subsitence.
You are talking of a rich, populated area with access to water. It is currently occupied by profesional dedicated soldier, with heavy equipment.
Also they have air superiority on this part of Syria.

On the other side, ISIS already has control of some of the oil fields in the country side and doesn't have the muscle to go on a full frontal offensive that will yield little results and cost them a lot.

that is pretty much exactly what I say in my post actually.
It would be better for arab troops to take the city but I don't see Assad moving out of Homs siege to go that far east. Kurds are the only ones with the manpower to do a proper siege right now, but it is risky indeed.

This is a clusterfuck there are no good options anyway, and the aftermath of the battles is crucial to avoid fucking things up further

They dislike each other, but they are neutral.

The fighting in Hasakah recently did not spread to the other places they interact at. Then after a few days the new deal is agreed to and the SAA/NDF gives up some territory. It will continue like that, but it is far better than them being active enemies like they were 2011-2013.

You from /k/'s /swg/?

It's been fun since October. Russia intervening was big to give the SAA the edge it needed.

Now the Russians are mostly gone and no one is winning. It's essentially stalemated.

>implying Raqqa is probably not full of Abu Hajaars
When Sukhois start bombing the shit out of it while the YPG takes prisoner the ones who flee it'll be over

yup

everybody is playing three band pool, nobody actually wants to fight ISIS (apart the kurds a while back when they defended themselves) but you need to pretend to do it to gain leverage for western aid and support.
Aid and equipment they need to fight their own enemies later.

I have no fucking clue how this could end well:
And yeah, with nearly independant kurdish states on north Irak and northern Syria as back bases, full of oil fields trained soldiers and heavy war equipment, I don't see how turkey will ever maintain control over its part of kurdistan.
Especially considering they are bombing/attacking the PKK positions around the border, further radicalizing them

okay just to be clear:
Kurds and SAA are neutral toward each other as they have no interest being enemies and need to focus on their common enemies.
We agree on that.

But to imagine they would coordinate a vast pincer offensive together north of Lake Assad to fabricate some useless coridor to do god knows what and then actively cooperate in defending it?
that's not realistic

nope, just a geopolitical nerd with a strong penchant for military matters.
are they actually discussing strategies and war tactics in /k/? I should take a look again then

indeed putin played it relatively well, to obama's despair

The Middle East Wars thread is good.

We have three namefag providers

5 star is American and pretty anti-Russian, but sources.
RuUpdater is Eastern Euro and unopinioned but pro-gov, but sources.
Zvesda is a literal Syrian in Damascus. He has sources straight from the military.

Zvesda translates Syrian. RuUpdater does Russian. 5star gives the earliest updates and always doubts certain groups and pumps up minor news. He makes it fun but triggers people.

PDR (plague doctor) was a tripfag provider 2012-2015. He left but I see him anonymous occasionally. Russia/Jihadi/American Shitposting hit the extreme in summer 2015 because the Gov was losing.

It's been better since, but we lost our best.

PDR is Serbian but he has great connections to Russian military and Syrian military. I think he was a liason officer that trains Syrian soldiers desu back in the early 2000's.

What's with Mexicans knowing so much about this?

Looks like a rash
Better get some cream on that

>What's with Mexicans knowing so much about this?
Internet armchair generals are a world wide thing.

Because touching the tips is gay

It's been there since SAA cut them off from the rest of the rebels like 5 months ago

>it's a "let's draw arbitrary lines on a map without having any idea of the situation on the ground/topography/manpower/weaponry" thread

There's nothing there its all desolate desert.

That's a succient summary of the Middle East in general, tbqh

communist terrorists, also subhumans
imagine if mexicans started bombing shit in america and started demanding you give them independence and 1/3 of american clay
youtube.com/watch?v=C-CocsaTfAE

YPG are creating a confederacy. In Arab areas they take, they leave Arabs in control.