Northern Territories/Kuril Islands dispute

>Japanese PM thinks he can secure a deal about recovery of four disputed islands by the end of this year and finally sign a peace treaty
>Abe thinks he can use his good relationship with Putin, economic (development of Russia's Far East) and political incentive (lifting sanctions)
>he's overestimating his leverage over Russia
>Russians don't believe they need the peace treaty, they aren't going to voluntarily cede sovereign territory with Russian inhabitants, which they believe has been paid for with the blood of Soviet soldiers and is therefore rightfully Russian

apjjf.org/2016/04/Brown.html

Other urls found in this thread:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
thediplomat.com/2016/06/is-the-japan-russia-honeymoon-over-before-it-even-began/
youtube.com/watch?v=eIDV6cdu7x4
twitter.com/NSFWRedditVideo

They made Japanese arrive the limit of rage,they will pay debt for their blood somedays.

That's unlikely.

Old Japanese who used to live there are dying out, less and less people know or care about the dispute and importance of Japan is declining.

You probably won't get any islands back.

Return Etorofu island for Koukaku Kidoutai

why do japs even want these shitty islands

This is how it looks like
Not very enticing desu

But that nature is amazing

...

...

I actually thought those were totally uninhabited

Would be much better if they could get back their half of sakhalin

They don't want it. Japan relinquished any claims over Sakhalin and Kuril Islands. It would also create Japan's only land border. That's not really convenient.

They argue that Northern Territories are an integral part of Japan and Russia is unlawfully occupying them.

There's about 15,000 Russians living on those two larger islands.

...

...

Meh. AFAIK, the main reason why Japan want those island back is because they will give large exclusive economic zone to them.

Hmm, not really

benis :d

whole kurils

Hokkaido is Russian clay.

And there's the map of current economic zones? I think now the whole Ohotsk sea is surrounded by Russian zone so Japanese fishers have to pay some money to Russia?

>japs expecting Russia to simply give clay

Do they know what's happening in Ukraine?
Do they even know how's the geopolitics are today?

But Japanese don't want whole Kurils, only those two southern islands marked in red.

You're not going to give them away though, becasue it's a last line of defence of Russia.

>becasue it's a last line of defence of Russia
Actually owning those two islands makes ohotsk sea our own.
So no that not because of tyhat

And yes, you're right. Almost whole Sea of Okhotsk is in the Russian EEZ.

Russian geo-politics places great interest on getting a good relationship with Japan, which is basically a US satellite state in Asia, that they can use to fight NK/China. If you think the Russians wouldn't give up some shithole islands with almost no value, for a new ally in Asia, you're dumb.

There's that one book that is mandatory reading for Russian officials written about Russia's geopolitical position, and it suggests doing this exact thing to draw Japan away from the US.

>russian inhabitants

What, five washed up fishermen too lazy to leave the island?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

Ctrl-F japan.

>The book has had a large influence within the Russian military, police, and foreign policy elites[1] and was allegedly used as a textbook in the General Staff Academy of Russian military.
>Dugin has asserted that the book has been adopted as a textbook in many Russian educational institutions.

>hurr durr the russians would never give up clay

>Russia should manipulate Japanese politics by offering the Kuril Islands to Japan and provoking anti-Americanism.

...

Basically all the people saying Russia would never make this deal are full of shit.

You would lose this red bit

And we aint gonna lose anything.

>Fundamentally, the Russian authorities feel little compulsion to sign a peace treaty with Japan. Such a document would be welcome as a way of ending the awkward legal situation that exists between the two countries, yet the Russian side sees no particular urgency to finalise such a treaty and is certainly not inclined to make concessions to achieve it. The reason is because, while there may not be a peace treaty, this does not mean that the countries are in a state of war. Instead, the Joint Declaration of 1956 formally established "peace, friendship and good-neighbourly relations" (Joint Declaration by the USSR and Japan 1956). As such, Russian officials frequently emphasise their broad satisfaction with the status quo. Most recently, this point was reiterated by Foreign Minister Lavrov who, on 26 January, told the press that "essentially we maintain peace and cooperation. In other words, we don't feel the effects of the absence of the peace treaty" (Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2016).

Of course the peace treaty doesn't matter at all. Russia and Japan aren't at war, clearly, that's ridiculous. Giving away the islands has nothing to do with signing that treaty though, that would just be a formality.

>The Russian side is therefore in no hurry to reach a resolution to the peace treaty and related territorial issue. This tendency is further strengthened by the perception that time is on Russia's side. Firstly, it will not be long before the last of the Japanese former residents of the islands passes away. This will deprive Japan of some of its most ardent campaigners for the islands' return and will also break Japan's most direct connection to its former territory. Furthermore, as the years pass, we begin to approach the date of 2035 when the islands shift to having been ruled directly for longer by Moscow than they ever were by Japan. Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, the demographic situation is not favorable to Japan. The Russian population of the islands has recently been growing at a rate of 2-3% a year (Argumenty Nedeli 2014), and the Russian government has introduced plans to attract further residents (Japan Times 2015). At the same time, Japan's population will continue to decline. Specifically, by 2055 it is projected that Japan's population will have plummeted to 91.93 million from 128.06 million in 2010 (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research 2012: 13). With this population decline affecting remote areas most strongly, this suggests that, even if the islands were somehow returned, Japan would be unable to repopulate them.

Better question is why Russians refuse to give up two shitty islands that historically weren't theirs to begin with. They have bad enough relations with the world as is.

And here's the most important part:
>The Japanese authorities would fiercely challenge many elements of this account. This matters little, however, when a successful resolution for Japan is dependent on the Russian government voluntarily making concessions. What is of significance is that, in the views of a majority of Russians, any substantial transfer of territory to Japan would not be regarded as a reasonable compromise to settle a longstanding problem in bilateral relations. Instead, it would be understood as a betrayal of those Soviet soldiers who gave their lives in their country's struggle against fascism and militarism. Such views are particularly strong in the Sakhalin region, which administers the islands. Indeed, according to one poll, 80 percent of residents would demand the president's resignation if the islands were to be returned. More alarmingly, as many as 17.8 percent stated that they would be willing to commit extreme acts, including taking up arms, if it were necessary to protect the status of the Southern Kurils as Russian territory (Williams 2007: 189). Although these are not new statistics, such attitudes are only likely to have been strengthened by the nationalist ferment stirred up by the Ukraine crisis and by the grandiose celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. In this context, any Russian leader would have to be brave indeed to offer major territorial concessions to Japan.

And if you were following it, you'd know it's not going smoothly.

thediplomat.com/2016/06/is-the-japan-russia-honeymoon-over-before-it-even-began/

1. Also there are two straits that don't freeze during winter - Ekaterina and Friz. Pic rel. So the whole Pacific fleet will be compromised.
2. Vast amounts of oil/gas.

Nop, the 18th Machine Gun Artillery Division consisting of 3500 servicemembers, 62 t-80 tanks, 122/152 mm artillery guns, 18 MRLS Grad, etc. Also civilians as well.

Kurils belonged to Ainu tribes
Japan doesn't really have a moral higher ground here that would justify their territorial claims
The most just thing they could do is secure rights for Kuril Ainu descendents in Japan to move back to their homeland but of course they don't give a shit about that

Because attitue towards us would not change a bit.

They are must need to think about consequences before starting a world war two. Japan fuck off.

youtube.com/watch?v=eIDV6cdu7x4

Worry not Russia, your island is well defended, how are the Japanese gonna mess with this?

>tfw no Best Japan

There's also a distant possibility that after transferring islands to Japan, American forces or surveillance systems could be stationed there.

Recently, Russian government started developing this area, which makes any possible territorial changes harder still.

How are the Japanese gonna mess with this?

I think they're already as radioactive as they come.

You're the one talking about a fucking war in response to a prospective peaceful diplomatic very very tiny land secession

They weren't historically Japanese too, just like Sakhalin. Japan started expansion in the end 19th - beginning of 20th centuries, and they genocided local Ainu people

And you nuked them, instead of letting them be divided between our countries in Germany style.

Yep
>Furthermore, as the years pass, we begin to approach the date of 2035 when the islands shift to having been ruled directly for longer by Moscow than they ever were by Japan.

Yes Russia the staunch defender of the ainu peoples of sakhalin and the kurils

>a prospective peaceful diplomatic very very tiny land secession
Proof?
>they genocided local Ainu people
>Implying Russia/USSR hasnt done that
Oh lordy

They are such staunch defenders they'll ship them to siberia to protect them.

At least our native Siberians are still alive and enjoy autonomy within Russia

Did you read OP?
Japan is trying to make a deal with Putin. If Putin doesn't accept the deal nothing will happen.

>Russian logic
>Japan offers peace treaty after 70 years of de facto peace
>Reject peace treaty and nuke Japan

Etorofu island is bigger than Okinawa

>Reject peace treaty and nuke Japan
Fuck yeah! never trust nips to be honest, lesson of 1905 year has been learned.

>Japan is trying to make a deal with [insert any Russian President since 1955]
They have done that everytime, it isnt anything new and nothing will happen. Also you have to keep in mind, that its actually not only the Russians who historically opposed the idea of giving those Islets to Japan. USA, Straya, Britain... the list goes on and on

...

We paid our blood for this island's.

Most Ainu are still alive they've just been completely integrated

Russia's slowly going to lose control of the Far East in the next few decades. It's currently more integrated with China than with the rest of Moscow, this will continue

>Do they know what's happening in Ukraine?
>Do they even know how's the geopolitics are today?
Interestingly Russia taking Crimea sets a precedence for a lot of these claims.

I honestly can't imagine Japan taking over Russian territory by force desu senpai

>It's currently more integrated with China than with the rest of Moscow
Where do you guys get this information.
There are more churkas from caucasus than chinks here.
t far easterner

Are you that user from Kamchatka?

No, I'm from Khabarovsk

>We paid our blood for this island's
To be really fair, its your countries fault for the shed blood if you backstab them in the latest point of the war to rip them off some clay t.b.h

Wow, that's almost in China

"Russia is kill" meme.

To be really fair, its your countries fault for the shed blood if you backstab us in the starting point of the war to rip us off some clay t.b.h

Japan is a small country , more island wanna make very happy to the japs

Japanese have disputes with all of their neghbours over some shitty rocks

>His country practically sent most of its men to defend their British friendos
lmao

They need the resources.

The mainland is lacking in natural resources so that means the Japanese have to keep working hard forever if they want to stay economically safe, whereas a country like Norway can just fuck around since they have a lot of petroleum.

Economically, you silly goose. Although there's only 6 million of you, so China could easily overrun you with immigration if it wanted to

Why cant they just buy all needed resources?

Living in a country abundant with natural resources doesn't mean it's a win though. Resource curse is real.

>Why cant they just buy all needed resources?
Why would you buy something, if you could legally dig some resources out from "your own territory"?

>China could easily overrun you with immigration if it wanted to
Kek. Let them try to immigrate to Russia without learning the language and assimilation.

Where's literally no reason for chinks to migrate to shit backward shithole; if they want resources, they just buy them.

All that wet Western fantasies about China annexing Siberia are insane

Are you retarded? This do not work like this, Japan is not planed economy, so they will anyway pay for this resources to private companies

That's not a good position to be in. Lots of money flowing outwards and you're entirely dependent on the sellers.

It's not a win but it's easier having more than having less.

>so they will anyway pay for this resources to private companies
Which can be cheaper then buying something from foreign companies + if you trade between two countries, the flow can be blocked in case of sanctions and/or war, please I think you better understand what sanctions mean then all of the Eurofags here.

That's the reason for Russia to sanction Japan? Russia now needs moneys, so we will sell our resources in lesser prices just to sold them.
Also, you think that military overtake is cheap, but in fact it's not. All military shit is fucking expensive. So it's cheaper to buy resources than to take them by force.

Ofc, but easily available resources can destroy a country with weak institutions.

Importing stuff creates trade imbalance, there are tariffs and barriers in place. Supply is vulnerable, which is bad for industry.

Those private companies are paying taxes etc.

if dubs kurils are lithuanian clay

Besides the Ainu who retain their culture a lot of northern Japanese have Ainu ancestory. Also, the Siberians are still their because it's Siberia and unless forced to move their it's not exactly an attractive place to live. The same reason Alaska doesn't have a huge population outside of oil, mining and fishing.

Also exchange rates. Currencies fluctuate.

I don't that would be a problem for Japan.

If dubs Lithuania is Russian clay, if tripl - whole 3 Baltic states are

Sweet looks like we're getting a whole bunch of Pacific territory. Fuck the people who live there. Sorry Japan, according to the Russians Okinawa is ours.

I havent wrote anything like Military overtake or smt, I meant that "if one country is able to make a disputed territory legally theirs" it would be cheaper then f.e. buying resources from other countries. Why do you think are there countries like Sudan or Southsudan who fight for areas full of resources, if they "could just buy something"? What?
>That's the reason for Russia to sanction Japan?
I said incase, now why do you think went Japan to war in the first place? Havent you heard anything about the US sanctioning Japan before that? Well I know that Japan is actually the one sanctioning Russia and not the other way around, but it could change in the future.
If dubs Memel will be German clay

Ofcourse not but it sets a "legal" precedence

Deus Vult.

NOT EVEN RIGGED

Kek. But no, fuck them and their clay.

Witnessed

Okinawa was America's after WWII until 1970 or something when America gave it back.

>18th Machine Gun Artillery Division
Is that really its proper name?

Your country already used the Kuril-card to snatch Micronesia and Okinawa away back in the 1950s tho