Sports Betting

Any successful sports gamblers here able to make profit?
Namely NBA and NFL

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NBA is hard because the refs actively keep the score within the spread as much as they can.

Agree. Often means looking at underdogs to cover spreads is a good option in my experience

I haven't gone full time in years but...

NCAA football. First four weeks of the season is basically free money. Then you have to get down to business but it's a hell of a lot handier and profitable than NFL.

Alternatively, anyone really good with their knowledge of the sports, especially statistics and the numbers?

Yeah I've found the first month in a number of sports the easiest, while many complain its the hardest. I always figured it's because it takes everyone so long to figure out whats going on and where teams stand. What are your theories on why the start of the seasons is the easiest period?

ctrl+f /bet/ on the catalog you blazing casual

You can go to /bet/ but it's full of losers, kek.

nfl and nba are the hardest sports to profit on long term because they're priced perfectly and very hard to find an edge. stick to live betting and wait for a good team to go down early and get on them

if you really want to make some money start following tennis and lower league soccer/basketball

I make ~20,000 every NFL season only because I've been doing it for 10 years and it's been self sustaining.

I used to discuss my bets on Sup Forums. But most people here are extremely vocal, and wrong, and it makes for a shitty combination for discussion.

kys

As far as NCAA goes, the powerhouse teams frequently play small schools that are just looking for money and exposure. Also, conference play and traditional rivalries usually don't get scheduled until the later weeks so with 200 plus teams there is a lot of action out there.

Nice.

>I used to discuss my bets on Sup Forums. But most people here are extremely vocal, and wrong, and it makes for a shitty combination for discussion

I agree its hard to find objective discussion, anywhere for that matter. As a general rule I ignore most of that the media says, except to get a feel for what most people will bet on to keep track of line movements.

Are you betting this NFL season as well?

I'm mostly interested in finding guys for a mastermind group that have experience. I've been working alone for a few years, but always found the right mastermind group to work with very efficient.

You can make a profit at sports gambling, but it's really hard to beat the vig. Basically you have to win a 50/50 proposition 53% of the time...which is almost impossible over the long-term. And if you're really successful, the sports books will stop taking your bets, and you have to get gophers to place your bets. Only a few autists can do it...but the ones who do are multimillionaires.

youtube.com/watch?v=d6FAUQ6SFKM

One of the biggest factors in NCAA football is whether the coaches know and care about the line.

For example, the legendary Nebraska Cornhusker coach Tom Osborne always made sure his team beat the spread against inferior opponents before he took his starters out. That way all the good old boys in the alumni circles would win big when they bet on their team and that kept them donating to the program.

Get out of your basement and get a job

>Get out of your basement and get a job

Australia don't really have basements.....

Have job, supplementing income on the side.

A single day of NCAA betting once paid my rent for nearly a year. Took about 12 hours of non online research to get it together and make the choices and i was working a straight job at the time also.

What makes you think i held onto my job longer than i absolutely had to at the time?

Pro sports is really hard, it feels like some games are fixed in fact the more you bet the more you feel this is true and it probably is, its good to bet money youre ok with losing and im really considering making small bets on straight wins than big bets on point spread, hell if I would have laid 200 on OKC I would have made alot more than my 1000 spread GSW bet on the first half.

Im reffering to game 1

It is really hard, and games are definitely influenced sometimes. But that's ok, you just have to take that into consideration. If you use that as part of your criteria for analyzing games. And there is often a difference between what coaches 'should do' and what they actually do. For instance you know the NBA wants close games for the entertainment factor, so I almost always steer clear of big favorites.

I have been doing point spread comparisons for a number of seasons as I figured out the bookies mathematics, and there are teams that are under valued each year and getting too many points on their spreads.

I'm yet meet anyone else that also knows the calculations the bookies make for their spreads and how they do it, anyone else here do the same?

I sportsbet for fun, and make my money on blackjack.

NBA in the early 2000's was practically free money when betting on the underdog to cover the spread - the refs were doing this blatantly for years before it was ever questioned.

How would you say you rate as a sports bettor?

>NBA in the early 2000's was practically free money when betting on the underdog to cover the spread - the refs were doing this blatantly for years before it was ever questioned

Mate those old school Phoenix Suns home Overs were the go!

the problem with betting on sports continuously is the law of averages. it's possible to get some winnings now and then, but over time the net results of all of your bets will become more and more predictable.

for example let's say there was a game where a coin is flipped, and if you correctly guess what it is then you win, and if not you lose. it's possible to win 8 out of your first 10 guesses, but if you do it 1000 times I can almost guarantee that your wins will be pretty fucking close to 50%.

it's like that, except that because gambling is a business designed to turn in a profit, the odds and payouts are designed to favor the bookmakers in the end anyways. that's why they let people make some money, because overall through all the bets they get from everyone, they're still coming out on top even if they lose some here and there.

so if you really want to make a profit on betting, your best chance is to bet very few times, not all the time.

>the problem with betting on sports continuously is the law of averages. it's possible to get some winnings now and then, but over time the net results of all of your bets will become more and more predictable.

for example let's say there was a game where a coin is flipped, and if you correctly guess what it is then you win, and if not you lose. it's possible to win 8 out of your first 10 guesses, but if you do it 1000 times I can almost guarantee that your wins will be pretty fucking close to 50%.


This is more true with gambling that is game of chance. In my experience I have been studying this with the aim of improving and making profit, and with experience I have seen my winning % improve.

Sport is a game where you can find edges if you do it right. If you are disciplined, and you made the good point of not betting too much. Over betting is a common mistake many bettors make. In saying that Bob Voulgaris bets on the NBA pretty much every night and multiple games. Hes very good.

Bob Voulgaris barely wins on nba anymore. he used to be the goat but now he just earns money from nitrogensports

I paid for 5 years of uni with it while living in a massive 3 bedroom penthouse apartment (we played cricket in it), I studied stats and comp sci so my rabid love of sport & figures meant that it was a natural outcome.

I'd call myself above average for sports and very good at picking the nags. I did have aspirations of working for the TAB when I graduated, but found other interests.

Doing it to make money took the fun right out of sport - I much prefer a cheap 10-line multi with outrageous odds to a five figure bet to make 30 cents on the dollar these days.

Its my understanding he's back to making money. He dipped out for a few years, went and worked on some strategies. He's making most of his profit on the O/U's

A stats and computer science guy is someone I'm actually looking for to partner with. I'm ok with maths and stats, but it takes me too long to compile the data I need. And there are guys out there that absolutely know statistics on another level to me.

I don't suppose you would be interested in a possible come back? Or discuss possabilities?
I've done a fair bit of research on the guys that actually made profits, and how they did it (whats different between them and squares). One of the most common things I found was select few groups of guys working together in mastermind groups.

have you read and watched the videos/articles from sloan sports conference?

sloansportsconference.com/?p=9607

I haven't, worth a watch?

I heard in a recent interview Voulgaris say he didn't actually build a database modelling system, people just assumed this from a few things he said and he was happy to let them assume wrong.

NBA and NFL? No way.

I make bank from my NCAAB picks and following sharp NRL/AFL/eSports/Tennis picks though

I also play NRL as well as NBA and NFL. The NRL is my most profitable, despite knowing the least among those 3 sports.
Did AFL for a while. Knew very little about it, just by calculating the point spreads myself and taking the ones that were 'off' and pure mathematics. Made profit (not enough though).

An American betting NRL??

Blackjack has a house edge that you can't beat, even if you card count
How?

>Don't bet on mainstream
>Only bet when you have an edge and the bookies have set the wrong odds
>Have a strict bankroll management

There you go; follow these rules and you will be able to profit easily on the bubblegum bookies

I'm sure all you merifats have heard of draftkings. Anyway, I've never spent any money on that shit, but I started analyzing daily fantasy football data a few months ago, and I've come up with a framework for daily fantasy football player selection that's decently specific. I think I'll try spending some money on it in the fall when the NFL picks back up. I think with betting it's important to stay impartial, so for the first couple weeks I'll select lineups I think can make money and then see how I would have done after each week. As someone who's never bet on sports before, it just seems to me like people get way too invested in it. They take things personally, go for their own team, etc. etc. I'll definitely try to avoid that.

My understanding (which is limited) on fantasy sports for money is it is pretty much rigged. There are two major sites, draft kings (and someone else?) and the guys that run each site just mirror the best players on their site and their picks, on the alternate rival site.

Just what I heard though, take with a grain of salt.

I'm not sure I understand you. Do you mean they see what the most common choices are for a given week and then choose accordingly themselves? I totally believe that; just more competition, admittedly of a tougher variety. Or do you mean it's legit rigged in some way?

What I mean is as an example, the guys that say run draft king site take the picks of the best players on their site, and then mirror those picks with their accounts on say fanduel

Kill yourself.

Oh yea. I'm fine with that honestly. It is kind of funny, though, in doing so they're also in a way trying to tank each other's website by taking all the money from the average players.

fuck off juveguy you're worse than any poster ITT

I appreciate the thought, but my work takes me all over the globe these days, often without access to a decent internet connection which is essential in this day and age! If you're at uni, hangout with the boffins in the comp sci dept and get them into sports, then they can do your number crunching and fulfil the small/smart group theory.


Still one of the lowest at 2.5%, compared to Keno at around 30% or American (double zero) roulette at 5.26%. There are enough casinos around the world that don't use continuous shuffling shoes to make counting worthwhile, and a lot of high stakes (read: not on the main floor) won't use them as a courtesy to their players.

There's actually a reduction in the house edge by 0.034 for 4 deck shoes and 0.014 for 8 decks, but they do speed up the game by nearly 20%, so the house retains its advantage over the long run.

I'm not saying that blackjack is my main source of income, but it is my main source of gambling winnings. On the whole though, casino games are stupid, but it doesn't hurt to have a little knowledge.

>Blackjack has a house edge that you can't beat, even if you card count

This is not true.

Um, yes it is.

Variables:
># of decks used
>dealer hits or stand on 17?
>can double after split?
>re-splits allowed?
>resplit aces?
>player can hit split aces?
>insurance against dealer ace?
>surrender rule?

House could use a mix of any of those to lever an advantage. You clearly haven't played enough blackjack.

I pretty much do pic related unless I'm on a table with a lot of people (or stupid people)

The only question is when to up the stakes. I don't card count specifically but I keep a general idea of how many suits and aces have been used

Am I the stupid one?

Looks good but I'd always double on 11's, even if dealer shows Ace.

Split your excel thing between soft and hard hands, because you can easily go from a hard hand to a soft hand if you get thrown an ace, and then your entire strategy changes - think of having several matrices in your head that you're moving between.

Treat 5,5 as a single 10, rather than a split.

Why are you standing on a 9-9 split with a dealer 7?

Oh I didn't make this.There's tonnes of these around that show the most profitable tactics
My guess would be that a guaranteed 18 is more likely not to lose than two 9+x

Correct, however most casinos in Europe anyway shuffle regularly all decks with a machine, thus house edge remains.

youtube.com/watch?v=JGbm9GMkWvs

1. don't go to /bet/ , literal cancer thread.

2. A /bet/ adage that sucks but is somewhat true. Don't bet on MAINSTREAM. They take it too far over there on what mainstream means - mainstream for me personally is point spread stuff, it's impossible to properly guess because of weird fluctuations in luck and referee decisions. Don't do those unless you're absolutely sure. How many times is a spread on NBA or NFL right on the money? Too many for my liking, and it should be too many for you as well.

Has anyone here ever done arbitrage betting?

Basically it's where the odds are such that you can bet both ways and guarantee a profit (or all three ways if a draw is possible)

The profits are usually minuscule, but if you have lots of money to stake, then you can make some dough

My friend at my last job was interested in it. I hacked together a web app that would trawl bookies websites and calculate if there was an arbitrage bet to be made. I might make that app again as a project

Middling-Hard to find to find spots but you can clean up if you get a good position on it.

Talkinh big sense here, pal

Tell me more about what mainstream means for you personally

shut up u little rat

Bet you're a bowcat too pmsl

WITNESSED

czech'd

t. iihf

pmsl

nice

> mainstream for me personally is point spread stuff
You short wearing, blue moon drinking, bernie supporting taco bell dangererous little man, please, PLEASE have sex.

giggling

fuck you you THIEF those were my pentas

Thanks, Binlanders. I hope you cuck the Leafs in the final

Need some advive on my tinder date later, is Hass around?

Please have SEX

>be American
>go to /bet/
>post bets but never a spreadsheet or a single shred of evidence that you actually profit from coonhoop or apesmash
>get told numerous times there's no value in your bets
>refuse to listen
>have a bitchfit

pmsl

>being racist

Kek

>implying american sports are profitable

i'm the rare american who stays away from that stuff, i dont even like watching it casually

tennis boxing soccer , lad

all right. fuck it. im on ZERO.

can someone PLEASE lend me some money

I made a little over 1000 euro's on football.
On the 2014 world cup about 800 euro's
And on some league games from spain, england, germany and the dutch league about 300-400 euro's
Could have been 1000 there if Arsenal would have won against reading away in 2015 i lost 500 euro's there because i got greedy.

Fucking glorious.

youtube.com/watch?v=jTurMarszdI

I was the luckiest man alive for a few days.

don't get ahead of yourself. twice the pride, double the fall

>twice the pride, double the fall

you are the only person on the planet to quote count dooku

>tfw click a /bet/ thread in the last 6 months
All thr trips have left and its just bitter englishmen who worship euwan

sup

Who tf are u la?

i don't need an introduction.

this tbqhwyf (to be quite honest with you fag)

THE OP OF /BET/ EVEN SAYS ITS CANCER!
This is the new bet tb h famm
Let them have a bitter circlejerk with no slips and aftertiming over there.

just spit out my fucking lemonade

i meant to agree with mr kys

Toronto+ 4.5 first quarter.
Free loons imo...

Anyone selling accounts?

Covered and dubs bitches
If u need othernigras tips to profit u need to stop
Holla

Sam Aces we know its you.
Please come back

World renowned better liddo, watch your fucking mouth yank

Give us a winning tip right now then?
This won
What u got?

Nice win Mate.

I took Cavs -12, had their spread first game as well. First 2 games were always gonna be blow outs (ha even though I said I rarely take big favs earlier)

Bump