For a team to be eliminated on 4 points 5 of these 6 conditions have to be met and you have to have the worst GD.
>1
ROM ALB - ROM win
>2
SVK ENG - SVK draw / win
>3
NI GER - NI win / draw
>4
CZE TUR - CZE must win
>5
ITA ROI - ROI must win
>6
HUN POR - POR must win
ICE AUS - Not a draw
someone should do the odds on this but basically its not happening.
4+ pointers get here and celebrate lads!
...
I can't wait for NI GER I hope they place them correctly :)
England. Controlling damage before the damage is done
Nah
I am a bit doubtful of 2 points getting you at best 16%.
look at previous world cup results, i think 2 points would have got you through this system like maybe one time out of the last 6 world cups or so.
So according to this England (4 points, 1 GD) have a 100% chance of going through
Sweet
average result is like
4
4/3
3
3
3/2
3/2/1
>we can still lose gd in the next game (guaranteed to be atleast -1 since it would be a loss for us to remain on 4 points)
also worth bearing in mind that is rounded up to 100%, not absolute 100%.
Why, does it seem too low or too high?
since the switch to 3 point per win system
>3,5% of the 3rd placed teams had 1 point
>15% of the 3rd placed teams had 2 points
>42% of the 3rd placed teams had 3 points
>36,5% of the 3rd placed teams had 4 points
>1% of the 3rd placed teams had 5 points
>2% of the 3rd placed teams had 6 points
It's hard to be in the top 4 out 6 with just 2
We're going to do it lads. It's ours.
is this tailored to this Euro, i.e. current standings, or what?
counted pre tournament
Nonsensical then.
Example: All groups end with 6 6 6 0.
This is blatantly not correct. It's definitely possible to go out on 4 pts+ positive gd
I didn't make it but it's not based on what's theoretically possible but either on previous results or a simulation
I think stimulation + rounding up might be an explanation. Basing it on previous results seems quite irrelevant
Really don't like this new system. What happens if a country shares the same points, GD and GF as another from another group? I know it's unlikely but still, theres a chance of it happening.
coin toss
Play third match
Don't know if qualified
At least we have 4 points. I tried to see if it's possible for us not to qualifiy and yes, if we lose like 4-0 and all the other 3rds finish with 4 points. Unlikely however.
its rounded up to 100% m8, statistically its probably like 0.000000001 or something. dumb germans.
Reminds me of this scenario.
>Norway
4 teams win and lose all manage on 0 df, that is fucking unlikely.
What meme world cup is this from that had 24 teams? 94 or something?
So what you're saying is it's incorrect?
We have symbols to indicate closeness to 100%.
Yes, 94, it was the most unlikely scenario possible for this kind of tournaments. Had Mexico won only 1-0 against Ireland it would have been a fucking mess to resolve who was first and who was second..
There's also something called statistical irrelevancy