It's that time again faggots

It's that time again faggots.
I'll help you out by giving you the answer...
You double your chances to win by switching.

Now argue relentlessly

Other urls found in this thread:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
twitter.com/AnonBabble

INB4
> I want a goat
> the other door has a goats ass
> I'm a muslim

1/3 to 1/2 is nowhere near double.

I'm too dumb to know

Stay with door 1
Host wants me to take door 2

stay fags

...

> stay in the basement
> mother wants to keep you forever

But you are wrong in saying that's wrong.
Apparently you're the fucking retard

Statistically, it is more likely that you will get the car if you choose to switch. Fucking noobs.

Your chances don't improve by switching doors. After the first one is opened, you still have a 1/2 chance of the car being behind the door you chose.

Ok, this is really simple.

You make a choice (1)
The world is now divided into two parts, (1) and (23)
At this point, it should be fairly intuitive to see that there is a 1/3 chance of 1 containing the prize, and a 2/3 chance of 1 NOT containing the prize.

Right now, if I offered you an ever money side bet as to whether or not 1 contained the prize, what would you take? You'd pick NO.

Now, If I open door #3, and show you a goat, and assuming that a goat is not the prize you want (Which you could get by switching to door 3 immediately), the chances of the prize being behind Door 2 OR Door 3 are STILL 2/3. But we've taken 3 out of contention, so you now refine the odds to
Prize Behind 1 - Still 1/3
Prize Behind 2 - 2/3
Prize Behind 3 - 0,

So switching doubles your chances.

Why are you saying that in reply to OP?
OP clearly stated you double your chance to win by switching.

You agree with OP and call him a noob for not knowing at the same time?

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

How can you ever have a 1/2 chance of anything from a choice out of 3?

The monty hale problem is based on your knowledge of the doors, not what's actually behind them. While you have a 1/2 chance in reality, your knowledge of the doors means you have a 2/3 chance if you switch.

They don't get it...
They never do.

Just enjoy the ride and the laughs you get from the stupid things that will be posted soon

Yes, after one choice (obviously one of the incorrect ones) was removed from the equation.

This is literally from the movie 21

You gotta explain that this is based purely on your knowledge of the doors, and doesn't actually affect the true probability.

no it isn't. i hate you

> While you have a 1/2 chance in reality
> knowledge of the doors means you have a 2/3 chance if you switch.

Switching alters reality
Fucks sake user...

Quantum door physics

That magically changes the odds of your first choice, when you chose 1 out of 3?

It's based on your perception, because you don't know what's behind the door you guessing. It's still a 50/50 chance in reality, but your knowledge of it makes it a 2/3 chance if you switch.

No
The movies (one scene) LITERALLY used the OLD monty hall problem to have a cool scene.
The monty hall problem is most likely older than you.

Well switching certainly doesn't magically change your odds.

But that's wrong.
Knowledge of what's behind uncover options does affect probability.

What is TRUE probability?
Is there false probability?
There is only probability user, it's mathematical, and completely independent of what you think.

>double
its not double, you start with 1/3 and when you change you have 1/2 and (1/3)*2!=(1/2)*2

You're disregarding the probability of winning the car given the player has picked door 1 and the host has opened door 3.

Which is only 1/2.

Initially there is a 2/3 chance that you picked a goat door
Meaning you most likely picked a goat door
Logically switching doors would be the best bet.

Because the third door doesn't matter.

[ ] Indicates choice

[CAR], GOAT1, GOAT2 - host opens goat 1 = 50%

CAR, [GOAT1], GOAT2 - host opens goat 2 = 50%

CAR, GOAT1, [GOAT2] - host opens goat 1 = 50%

>>Then, the host will open one of the doors you did not select to reveal a goat

No matter what door I pick will the host ALWAYS reveal a goat or in this specific instance did he reveal a goat?

No, it doesn't, which is why switching doubles your odds.
You choose one, your odds are 1/3 to win, so it's 2/3 odds the prize is behind a door you didn't choose.

Opening a door you didn't choose doesn't change the odds that it's 2/3 a door you didn't choose, but now there's only one door left that you didn't choose.

Switching = 2/3

OP here.
Just got an alarm call from work, I'll be back in about half hour.
You fucks keep arguing and keep this thread alive till I get back.

Cheers retards.

so if i switch doors 2 times, i have a 3/3 chance of getting the car?
nigga you is dumb

Let's establish some constants for this;
-There are only 3 doors
-There is a car behind one door
-The other 2 doors conceal goats
-You DO NOT want a goat. The goal is to get the car


When the host asks you initially to choose a door, you choose door 1. At this time, your chances of getting the car are 1/3.

The host then opens door 3, revealing a goat.

He then asks if, knowing that door 3 had a goat, you would like to change your guess. This is essentially the same as asking you to choose your door again.
>Change doors = choose door 2
>Dont change doors = choose door 1

Assuming that you do not want the car, that invalidates door 3 as a choice because you now know for a fact it contains a goat. Meaning, when asked if you would like to switch, you are now being given a choice between 2 doors, one of which contains a smelly goat and one of which contains a shiny car.

So yes, switching doors does increase your chances from 1/3 to 1/2, but so does staying put.

Completly out of place.
Fucking faggot.

Assuming you DO want the car. Typo. Apologizing with tits

> this
THANK YOU

No, you're legitimately retarded.

Not out of place at all when he's saying his choice is based on what he thinks the authority figure wants him to make.

It's pretty fucking apt actually

This would be ok if after removing one of the doors your memory gets completely wiped.
The idea that the odds are 1/2 ignores the fact that when you first picked a door you went in knowing you had a 2/3 chance of picking a goat.
Even after a door is removed it still doesn't change the fact that you made your first choice with a 2/3 chance of getting a goat.

All this talk of goats and cars. Rubbish.
You have to put it in terms that Sup Forums can understand.
There are three doors.
Behind one door is 'tits'
Behind the other two doors is 'gtfo'

See, now they will want the tits. Since most Sup Forumstards will never leave their mom's basement, they would rather have the goat, that they WILL use, rather than the car that they wont use.

> switching doors does increase your chances from 1/3 to 1/2
You can never have a 1/2 odds from a blind choice out of 3.

If the thing you chose was 1/3, then all the doors you.didnt choose have 2/3.

That's the choice you're making in this question.
Keep the door you chose, or switch to choose the other 2

It's 2/3. Here's why:

It doesn't matter in the end which door the gameshow host opens up, so long as it's an EMPTY one and NOT the one you've chosen. Therefore, if you know that one of the empty ones has opened up, then there's a better chance that the one the gameshow host didn't open is the correct one. The gameshow host decided to remove the outlier out of the two he was able to choose, therefore not reducing the probability of the one you've chosen and instead increasing the probability of the unopened door you didn't choose of being the correct choice

The problem really comes into play when the door that's chosen has to be door number three.

And? Now you just know you have a 1/2 chance for getting a goat, since you don't have to bother with door #3 anymore.

Yes, but with the goat still in the last two doors, there's still a 50/50 chance at sex?

Host always shows you one door you didn't pick with a goat.

But wait. You say he increases the chance of the unchosen door by opening the goat-door. Fine so far, I go with that.
But you don't seem to know that by doing that, he also increases the chance of the door you HAVE CHOSEN to be the correct one. Both will come to 1/2 in that case.

Right, your first choice was a 2/3 chance of getting a goat. But then you're asked if you want to switch knowing that one has what you want and one does not. The fact that one of the doors you did not choose contained one of the 2 goats does not make it more likely that the other goat is behind the door you chose the first time

..so are you agreeing to the guy you replied to or not?

He actually explained why this is wrong in the first post

His explanation is wrong

I find that it can help to think from this perspective:

If you want to pick a goat, but can't pick the door that gets revealed, you have a 2/3 shot right off the bat. After the revealing, the door you originally picked still has that 2/3 chance of being a goat, so despite there being only 2 choices now, one of the choices still has a 2/3 chance, and the other door has the remaining 1/3 chance.

change fags.

think about if it was a million doors
first pick is 1 in 1000000

take away all but 2 doors

if you change you have a 1 in 2 chance, rather than your original 1 in 1000000

It actually doesn't increase the probability of my choice being correct.

See: Also look at: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

This is a brain teaser that has fooled some of the brightest minds of our generation.

But when he reveals the goat and gives you another choice to switch doors or not, its not a choice out of 3 anymore

Goats is plural.

You literally wrote out all of the possibilities and you still don't realize why you should switch. Are you fucking retarded or what.

That's not the important part. There doesn't have to be three choices in order to make the probability of something to have a denominator of three

Only insofar as the first choice you make is in fact 1/3, but after the first door is revealed to be a goat your odds increase to 1/2 no matter whether you switch or stay.

This would only be correct if you were not given the option to change doors.

The false assumption is that one goat can be behind two doors, but goats is plural. The entire test is invalid.

> doesn't understand tits or gtfo

The point is that you're essentially getting two choices for the price of one by switching.

Instead of having the original 1/3 chance, you get a 2/3 instead, thereby doubling your chance.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

OP is back faggots.
Was a closer store than I thought.
Cheers to all the retards arguing and any anons trying to correct them.

You want to switch. I'm not going to give you an explanation, I'm just going to spell this shit out for you.

There are 3 possible scenarios in this problem, so let's just list them out, all with the assuming that you decide to switch.

1. You choose door one(CAR), host opens doors two(GOAT), you switch to door 3(GOAT)

2. You choose door two(GOAT), host opens door three(GOAT), you switch to door one(CAR)

3. You choose door three(GOAT), host opens door two(GOAT), you switch to door one(CAR)

In two of the scenarios where you switch, you win a fucking car. In the other scenario, you fuck a goat. If you don't switch, then you are stuck with your original odds of fucking goats 2/3 times.


If you don't understand this, then I don't know how you manage to survive as an adult.

Are you saying that switching between the 2 doors changes the chances from 33/66 to 50/50?
Or are you saying that revealing the unchosen goat door alters that 2/3 chance into a 1/2 chance, even though your choice hasn't changed.

You're right, there does not have to be three options to have an X/3 probability, but when 1/3 choices are invalidated, and only one of the two choices remaining has what you want, that stops being an X/3 probability.

Revealing the unchosen goat door alters that initial 1/3 chance into a 1/2 chance, whether your choice has changed or not.

You are given 3 choices. one choice is then removed from the equation and you are asked to choose again, this time from 2 equally possible choices

lets pretend the 2 goats are behind the 1st and 2nd door, the car behind 3.
At this point you are in the disadvantage, cuz your chances are 1/3.
Say you actually pick the one with the car, the guy unlocks a door with the goat and you have to decide. Clearly, if you switch, you lose.
So why would you switch?
Well, 1/3 of the time switching doesnt make sense, because it would cause you to pick the door with the goat, but 2/3 of the time, when you actually pick the goat, switching causes you to win, because your choise was the goat and the other goat was revealed by the.
You see, 1/3 you lose by switching, 2/3 you win.

You're a fucking idiot.
opening a door you didn't choose applies 2/3 odds to the ONE door remaining that you didn't choose.
> Must also increase odds on my door
No, it mustn't

OP is right

Scenario 1: goat door the first
Removes other goat
Switch gets car
Keep gets goat

Scenario 2: goat door the second
Removes other goat
Switch gets car
Keep gets goat

Scenario 3: car door
Removes a goat door
Switch gets goat
Keep gets car

Total switch 2/3
Total keep 1/3
Double odds

If you faggots don't believe him:
>get a friend (or a parent or find a homeless volunteer you friendless loser)
>get a deck of cards
>pull out 2 black ones and one red one
>simulate this scenario
>repeat a whole bunch of times (at least 20, preferably more)
>cry when you realize you're stupid and wrong and have just proved it

Fucking this. It's so fucking simple if you retards would stop trying to magic math it out and just consider the three possibilities states from the initial door choice.

This fucking guy gets it and isn't retarded.

They still think it magically changes everything to 50/50

They are retarded

op is right, well known counter-intuitive problem, switchers have a 2/3 chance, stayers have a 1/3.

non-switcher
prize is in A
choose A, win
choose B or C, lose, because not switching
1/3 win chance

switcher
prize is in A
choose A, lose, because switching
choose B, C is revealed as a loser, switch to A, win
choose C, B is revealed as a loser, switch to A, win
2/3 win chance

Why argue OP? You are mathematically correct. You do, in fact, double your odds of winning. This was proven years ago. Small minds never do seem able to grasp it though.

Now let's try to figure this one out.

I'm convinced this will go even better.

It is.
It's just a choice out of three, with one you WONT choose because now you know it's a goat.
You can still.choose it if you wanted to.

Just because you know it's a goat doesn't make that option disappear.
There is and always was, 3 choices

It does when there is ONLY 3 choices
Do you even understand what your trying to say?

You're forgetting that the goal is to GET THE FUCKING CAR. You won't choose the host-revealed goat door because it CAN'T GET YOU THE CAR.

Monty hall problem feggit. If you stay you have 1/3 to win, if you switch you have 2/3

If there is one door that you will absolutely not choose then why is it still a choice?

July 16

Another user that believes in magic.
> first choice 1/3
> other 2 choices have 2/3 combined
> reveal one to be goat
> other 2 choices STILL have 2/3 combined
> first choice still has 1/3

Stick with first choice 1/3
Switch to only one left out of a 2/3 duo
It's not that hard

Which is what your mother said about your dick after I fucked her...

It's actually 1/3 to 2/3.
Your odds of losing is 2/3. If you always switch, your odds of losing now become your odds of winning.

Why argue because it's right?
Because Sup Forums and retards.

They can't help it.
A combination of inability to accept being wrong, and compulsion to tell everyone e they're right.

It's the internet rollercoaster of entertainment...
That's why I make this thread most weeks.
It's entertaining.

>first choice is 1/3
>forgetting that you're being asked to choose again, this time with information that invalidates one of the original three choices

Just imagine 2 persons.
Person 1 ALWAYS switches.
2 ALWAYS keeps the selected door.

1 will win more often because the chances are higher that he picks a door with a goat first (2/3). Other goat gets revealed -> P1 switches -> car

2 will lose more often because he keeps his door and the chance to get a car right away is just 1/3.

Make your own thread if you think it's so great you faggot.

>Albert knows the month
>Knows that knowing the date alone doesn't give away the date
>Month revealed not to be May or June as 18 or 19 would be a giveaway.
>Bernard didn't know before (simply confirms already known info)
>Knows now
>Now that May and June are eliminated, can tell from the date alone.
>Eliminates the 14th of both August and July
>Albert now also knows, has to narrow it down by the month.
>Eliminates August dates as there's two possibilities where as July only has one.

July 16th

Choosing not to choose it doesn't make it not a choice

> god appears
> offers you 2 choices
> go to heaven or hell
> laugh and call god dumb because he only gave you one choice
> get sent to hell for being dumb

switch doors!

There actually does..
Fucking math, how does it work?

My answer: 1.

no it's still 1/2. you know that 1 door has a goat, and 1 door has a car. you don't know which one is which. therefore, you have two possible selections to make, each with an equal chance of being a goat, or a car. therefore, you have a 1/2 chance of getting the car. the third possibility is eliminated when the gameshow shows you the goat.

Because it's one door out of three
You WONT choose it, but it existed when you made your FIRST choice.

Only your first choice matters.
What's the odds of you choosing right the first time...
1/3

That means 2/3 the prize is behind one of the two doors you didn't choose.
If I open one of those doors, theres still a 2/3 chance you didn't chose the prize, but now there's only one door left that you didn't choose.
2/3

>only your first choice matters
>that's why you should switch when given the option

Didn't forget anything.
> first choice is 1/3
> 2/3 you don't have the winner
> reveal a door you didn't pick
> still 2/3 you don't have the winner
So 2/3 the only door left you didn't pick is the winner