ITT: we determine how smart Sup Forums is

ITT: we determine how smart Sup Forums is
test 1
>pic related

Other urls found in this thread:

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Simple_solutions
stayorswitch.com/
youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg
twitter.com/SFWRedditVideos

test 2
>pic related

test 3
>pic

Those matches are engraved un a JPEG image and thus unmoveable. Come with an interactive Html5 applet next tome you nigger

not very smart i see

...

correct!

This one is stupidly easy
I dont know how to make this one
It doesnt matter if you change or not, the possibility of any of the 2 doors is 50% since we took out one of the doors.

>true
>k
>false

...

Hurr durr you have 1/3 on the first door cause you picked it when it was 3 doors, hurr durr i dont know what change means hurr

google james bay beer hunter and watch it

The winner is the one winning the car, not the one choosing the highest probability to win it

Still, ive seen multiple times this problem and it doesnt follow logic, they just say the same over and over, not considerating the change foe the first door but doing it for the second

yes, you have a higher chance of getting a car if you switch, thus becoming the winner

>using only 2 and reaching 4 triangles
wrong but probably the best i can do

but you're wrong
Pretend these weren't 3 but 100 doors. You make a choice and the moderator closes 98 doors. It's pretty logical to switch.

>doesn't understand how math and chance works

newfags cant triforce

not really
its still 50 50

1/3 you pick the car first and upon changing your mind you get a goat
2/3 you pick a goat first and upon changing your mind you get the car

what matters is which one you choose first

So what is your first probablilty of hitting the correct door from 100 in the first try?

Don't try to teach the stupids

Its still 50 50, if you change you have a 50% of winning cause its 2 doors remaining, if you stay... guess what? Its still 2 doors remaining

Monte Hall problem.
Yes you want to swap

If you've got 100 doors the chance of hitting the right one is 1% - pretty low, therefore it's pretty likely that you got the wrong door in your first guess.
And yes, after that switching gives you a 50/50 chance, but it sure is higher than the original 1%.

At first yoh are given a 1/3 chance to have a door with a car, a goat shows, you still 2 doors, cause the third one is useless now, you are given again the choose of picking stay with your door or change, there is only 2 doors, its like you are given the first option but with 2 instead of 3, are you guys literally retarded?

Yes, ofc at first your chance of winning is sooo low, thats correct, but it turna out you picked one of that 2 remaining boxes, you have 1/2 chances that your box was correct, even if you had a low chance at the beginning, you have a higher chance now, its still a 50/50, you just want to see it how you have been teached to, not getting the changes occurred.

but the 50% chance only applies if you change...

look it up, your odds remaine 1/3 even if 1 door is revealed, you cant even test it, but if you dont want to do the test several times, try increasing the amount of doors to 100 and open 98 doors after choosing one.

why do i mix up can and cant so often? i dont get it.

>2boxes, only 1 of them has the same probability than the other
1 box has 50% other 1% and thebother 49% what? In the openes boxes? You are relly good at thinking

Look up
Im not arguing 2 times the samw

You know what? I don't care - if you don't want to understand you never will.

>cant argue a point
>leaves the discussion

Nowhere does it say that just because you chose a door first that door has a goat behind it. Nowhere does it say that the choice of door the moderator made is in your best interest, or of more value than your chosen door.

To all of these naysayers for the Monty hall problem that say switching doesn't matter they have run sims of this problem millions of times and it turns out switching is beneficial.

>ignores all hints and attempts to simplify the problem
>thinks he deserves my full attention

stayorswitch.com

im not asking you to argue, im asking you to LOOK IT UP!! its been explained several times, any door at the start has 1/3 chance to have a car behind it, the original door KEEPS the 1/3 chance even if 1 door is opened.

Stop making yourself look stupid by being so certain about stuff you know absolutely nothing about.

ITT: Triforce with matches, dot grid gets neglected, and the Monty Hall Problem gets misunderstood.

en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

>Another insight is that switching doors is a different action than choosing between the two remaining doors at random, as the first action uses the previous information and the latter does not.

Switching leads to a 2/3 chance of winning.

This guy gets it
Its more about the moderator psicology than maths
it doesnt matter what was behind, once you open the rest they dont matter for the problem, as they are revealed not having the price, then you are given a chose: what box do you want?
Same shit than the beggining, the chances now are 50 / 50 i have to work, keep being 0 self thinking

Yeah. The switch increased you're chances. Unless you want a goat then just pick the door they reveal that's what I'd do

>Its more about the moderator psicology than maths
the host opens a door with a goat behind it, thats is ALL you need to know.

if you stay:
pick car, you win (1/3)
pick goat, you loose (2/3)
if you change:
pick car first you loose (1/3)
pick goat first you win (2/3)

>not comprehending such a simple concept

>/sci/ is leaking

STOP

CHECKD

My sister says I have a nice weiner

...

Lets change the sentence a bit with the same rules.
Lets give 100 boxes to 100 people.
Everyone has a 1% chance of winning.
Theb 98 boxes open and the price is not in.
You have one of this boxes and the moderator asks tiu if you wanna change.
You 2 have the same conditions so as you both picked a box you both have 1% of chances.
But wait, if you change you both magically win 49% chances.
Wait did we find aomething that doesnt work well?
Oh yeah, while the boxes open you gain probability, as its more likelly to be in yous, cause the rest doesnt have it.
Use your brain, dont let others think for you, this problem is shit.

But we know where a goat is, so its not like more provable now that you picked a goat over the price, the only thing you know is that that door has a goat, and you didnt pick thay door.
It eliminates one option of the equation

Which means its not 1/3 and 2/3 cause you dont have 3 uncognites, you have 2, and its conplettly different from the beggining, not interacting at all with the first chance.

Another example, the olympics.
Your country participates on the olympics in soccer, and over, lets say, 100 countries, you end up in the final, its like you STILL only have 1% chance of winning? The other country has more chances of winning?
The numbers are too hard to follow? Faggots.

you dont seem to understand that it is not a 100 players game. its a 2 players game where you have 1 box and the second player has 99 boxes.
The numbers are too hard to follow? Faggot.

Hiw does that if you put a name on every option the maths change? The numbers are the same, prove me wrong, give me the maths that shows that matter

Bottom line, if you think that its not 1/3 if you stay you are wrong and need to look this shit up.

Quoting a yt video doesnt make a point, smartass

the problem works like this:
2 players
100 doors
goat=you lose
car= you win
1 door has car=1 chance you win
99 doors have goat=99 chances you lose

the problem like you suggest is:
100 players
100 doors
gary the goat= gary wins
berry the goat=berry wins
chuck the goat=chuck wins
...
car=you win
everyone has 1% chance to win


so yeah...putting names on goats and introducing more variables pretty much changes the problem.
and no, the numbers are not the same.

here's your math

100 players
100 doors, boxes or whatever,
Pick a car, win, pick a goat , lose.
Its just naming the chances of every door, you are still playing vs 99 chances of losing in both, the only thing that matters is that at the end you have only 2 doors, you had 1% of winning that evolved into 50%, the other door started with the same chance and ended up with the same as you have now, ofc you have a low chance of winning from beggining to the end, thats how the tv programs like this works, but if only 2 doors end unopened, both can contain a car or a goat in the same proportion, as they could had the same chances of having a goat or a car in the beggining

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Simple_solutions

im not quoting A yt video, im quoting ALL the videos and ALL the research and explanations made on it, you are so wrong here its getting funny.

If you were to say what you think to a mathematician they would laugh you out of the room, thats how wrong you are.

your chance does not evolve its not a frikken pikachu

you are given 100 doors
you pick 1 (so its 1% chance of winning)
player 2 picks 99 doors (99% chance of winning)

so by now i would bet on player 2 to win


then 98 of player 2 doors are revealed to be goats

now...
you think it's more probable that you picked the right one or MAYBE the car is in the remaining one of player 2"?

i don't know about you but i would still bet on player 2

Good thing im a math teacher at a university, i shall laught myself?
Not everyone is ok with that solution, not ALL thinks the same, and you arent even a mathematician, so show some respect to the people who knows more than you talking about their job.
Its also proven impossible for a bee to fly, but it is like that, the maths are out there, keep beliebing that for yourself, you will always have to watch for someone to make a point for you.

Yes, i have 0 problems with that, thar is correct, but now you are given the chance of picking the box you wanna take, now its a 50/50 chance cause its only 2 boxes remaining and its as possible that your box has the price as its that THAT CONCRETE box has the price among the 100 initial, ofc from the beginning you have virtually 0 chances of winning, but at the end its 2 random boxes and 1 choose.

By this i mean, you have 1 box with 1% chance of winning, the opponent has 99 boxes with 1% each, you both ewnd up with 1 box both and the boxes still have 1% each. 1% = 1%; therefore 50% chance of you getting the priced one

You dont think there is something wrong with the math then if it proves something we can all see any time we want to be impossible?

And yes, if you are a math teacher who thinks that changing the door increases your odds you should quit your job.

doesnt increase your odd*

apparently i cant type today.

That's what im saying for thw love of God, it doesnt count the door that's gone, it includes it in a bad way, thats what im trying to say for the love of god.
Also im going to watch a movie, see y'all and learn something

player 1 picks 1 box out of 100
player 2 picks 99 boxes out of 100

who would you bet on? player 2 right?

we skip the goat reveals and immediatly reveal the car, it's gonna be one of player 2 doors 99 times out of 100 and once for player 1

and thats it...it doesnt matter if you reveal the other 99 boxes before or after, its gonna be one a car for player 2 99 times out of 100.

player 2 is ALWAYS gonna have at least 98 goats you are not changing shit by revealing them.

Game theory
Theoretically you have a 66% chance to win now, but you also have a 66% chance to lose, so in oractice it makes no difference

These guys are just trolls right?
right.
sage, this thread is over.

Can we just end this discussion about the f'cking doors by simply using a simulation that proves the monty hall problem.

stayorswitch.com/

If someone tries to proof that some maths are bad written and you show up with a simulation which uses that maths, thats stupid.

how is the math bad? its just counterintuitive, like all probability problems.

Yea, lets use a page with the only code meant to be: every time the change box is opened it has by rng a 2/3 percent chanfe of winning and the atay one a 1/3
Woah, the change box wins 2/3 of the time, didnt spect that!!!

well you could try it in real life and find out it still works like that...

It just proves that which is being discussed. Doesnt matter if someone think that the math in the problem is correct or not, the simulation show that it is correct.

There is a 1/3 probability of you picking the car on the first pick.

There is a 2/3 probability of you picking a goat on the first pick.

If you know from the start that you will be able to switch doors after the first pick and that after the first pick one of the doors with a goat in it will be revealed. You then have a 2/3 probability of picking a goat (which you want to pick), that is it is twice as likely for you to pick a goat on the first pick then it is for you to pick the car.

If you on the first pick get a goat that means that when the game master removes one choice he will remove the other goat.

That means that the first door you did pick has a 2/3 probability of being the wrong one. In other words if you were to change doors you will have twice as high probability to get the car because it is a 2/3 probability that your first choice was incorrect.

Easy

To finish this discussion lets just write up all the scenarios.

Staying:
You pick door with car, host reveals door with goat 1, you stay. You win!
You pick door with goat 1, host reveals goat 2, you stay. You lose!
You pick door with goat 2, host reveals goat 1, you stay. You lose!
Staying yields a 1/3 chance of winning.

Switching:
You pick door with car, host reveals door with goat 1, you switch. You lose!
You pick door with goat 1, host reveals door with goat 2, you switch to door with car. You win!
You pick door with goat 2, host reveals door with goat 1, you switch to door with car. You win!
Switching yields a 2/3 chance of winning.

The point here is that the host will always open all doors not containing the prize, thus the choice to switch boils down to:
If i picked the right door to begin (1/3 chance) i win if i stay.
If i picked one of the wrong doors (2/3 chance) i win if i switch

Always switch you plebs

First choice: there's a 2/3 chance you pick goat, 1/3 chance you pick car

One goat is removed

There's still currently a 1/3 chance you're on the correct door with the car since you haven't changed your decision. 1/2 chance the other door has the car, vs your 1/3. Always switch.

Bottom line is chances are you chose the wrong door at the start, and switching gives you a better chance at picking the right one after one is gone

Hahaha, that's clever

make a triforce retard...

>mixing 1/3 chance with 1/2 chance

Sigh

1. Make a triforce
2. Don't lift your hand, but lower the paper that you're drawing on
3. Switch, and you'll win the car 2 out of 3 times

▲
▲ ▲

For the people that don't understand how the game show hosg increases your odds if you switch after he opens another goat door, lemme try and explain.

You have a 1/3 chance of getting the car, we know only this when you pick your door, its random and you can never know for sure.

The question states that the game show host knows what is behind each door. He purposely opens a door that has a goat, just to show you that one of the 2 doors you could have picked is a goat.

NOW! If you dont switch, you have only made 1 selection and that selection stays no matter what door you pick or the host opens. So essentially you only have a 1/3 chance of getting the car or a 2/3 chance of getting a goat. Thats the odds if you dont switch.

WHEN YOU SWITCH DOORS. You still initially have a 1/3 chance of getting the car first pick. You also initially have a 2/3 chance of getting a goat first pick, this is the important part. If you select a goat on the first pick, which you will always have a 2/3 chance to pick by random, then when you switch, the only remaining door will be a car. This means that if you didnt chose the car on the first pick (which you have a 1/3 chance of getting) and chose a goat, then the other goat will be shown to you by the host 2/3 of the time. You switch when you see the goat and you have a 2/3 chance of getting the car if you switch.

watch this video of you didnt graduate highscool, it explains it quite eloquently.
youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg

It says in the problem that you always have a 1/3 chance of picking the car and a 2/3 chance pf getting a goat. It states in the question that the host always knows what is behind each door and will always show you a goat. The door the host decides to open is ALWAYS of less interest to you than the door the car is behind, this is the critical thinking aspect of the issue.

>see
youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg