It's that time again faggots

It's that time again faggots.
I'll even help you out by giving you the answer, you double your chance to win by switching.

Cue relentless 50% retards getting frustrated

switch doors, I dont want a goat as my wife. Afterall i'm not muslim

Stay

how do I take the car home if its wider than the door?

stay , the car has to be on the left. theres no way it would be in the middle

INB4
I want a goat
The other door is a goats ass
2 other things I can't remember

Rest assured retards will remind us what they are

Also always switch....
66% chance if you switch.

You just said that behind 2 there are goats, and behind 1 there is a shiny new car.

I'll go open number 1 friendo

But there is way

I'd probably go 'meeehhhh' and Id hear the goat from both doors mate

Ok.
33% chance of winning

Double that if you'd switch.

It is simple. Always switch. Because the change you picked the car is 33% and the chance you picked a goat is 66%. Therefore switching gives you a 66% chance that you had a goat behind your door and thus now a 66% chance you have the car.

So switch unless you are muslim

It doens't matter - the goats will have moved randomly while choosing. You can't make a goat stay still. There are clearly no walls behind the doors.

Not surprising that when opportunity presents itself, you make a weird noise and retreat into your chair

They can't wander.
I nailed their feet to the floor.

Inb4 vegan Nazism nonsense

Ok. I'm not a math guy.
How does a calculation like this reflect on real life?

It seems to me only by calculation there should be 66% chance.

In real life you'd still have a 50/50 percent chance, there are 2 doors. And there is no information that there should be a goat behind any of those two.
So with no extra info on the two doors that are left. It would be a 50/50 chance.

Am i wrong? Could someone explain?

ENG or AUS?
only one answer is acceptable.

You switch. Not cuz math and shit. Cuz you're an alfa and you dont stay on one thing long enought to get a band. Fuck bitchets get cars.

You'll always have a 33% chance. Switching it unknowingly won't increase your odds, user.

>inb4

Marylin Savant's retarded.

You're wrong there. 33% from the beggining. And even if you stay on the choosen one you stay with a 50% chanse of havning right. Odds dosent change just cuz you switch.

You start with 66%, then recede I that to 50%

Simulation/calculation was right.
You explain how a 1/3 choice of 3 can yield a 1/2 result and ill.give you one trillion dollars

>Odds doesn't change just cuz you switch.
Yeah, that's my point.

while, there are three doors, 2 goats, 1 car.

so if you pick a door, there is a 33% chance of it being the car, and a 66% chance of being a goat. The host can always open 1 of the 2 goat doors. Without you knowing you picked the car. Than he asks you to switch. The 33% and 66% chance haven't changed. So you switch, having a 66% chance of selecting the car, because there was a 66% chance of you picking the goat. This will go well 66% of the time, and will fail 33% of the time. Simulate it in code, or do it on paper. You will see there is a 66% chance of you getting the car this way.

you obviously misread my text, luckily I have the explanation above.

I am not good with this, but should I guess the chance rises because the guy didn't open the other door for me? (meaning that this door could have the car, so he wouldn't open it)

Yeah, my point be wrong
But all them other fuckers being up in my motherfuckers jus make me know it more.

Nigger logic.
Is wrong, but not to them

But it seems to me theres two phases in this problem.

First you have the choice of 3 doors.
One goes away.

You get left with two doors, and the ability to choose either one.
The third option is practically gone.

How is it not a 50% percent chance then?
Genuinly interested.

Yeah I saw that. I was fuck that niggah, then I saw that you where right. Sorry bro. Move on.

You had a 33% chance of picking the prize.
You had a 66% chance of NOT picking the prize.
That means you have a 66% chance if you switch from your first choice.

That's wrong.

What's the odds of the door you choose having the prize?

>The 33% and 66% chance haven't changed.

But they would though. When he opens the door and we find a goat then the probability of the door that I chose being the car is now 50%. Yes 33% at the start but now I have the option to change my decision. I have 2 choices so 50%.

Again, damn

Also watch movie 21 exact problem explained
in detail.

1 fuck
2 marry
3 kill

But if I stay, dosent that make me chosee to stay on that door with 50% chance of having right?

Retard.
> I make you choose one of three different coins
>only one coin is the winner.
So you.choose a coin and have 1/3 chance of choosing the winner coin.

I now flip a coin you. Didn't pick and show you it's a loser....

Still 33% chance you chose the winner because you chose 1/3

The probablility doesn't mean anything, because he always chooses a door with no car, and the probability doesn't apply to the host, since he has no chance of opening the door to the car

I understand the math.
Mathematically it should be 66%.

But can anyone explain why it's not a 50% chance when in the second choosing you only have two options of which one is right and one is wrong.

If I didn't have the option to change my decision then It'd still be 33% but I do. This is why I hate statistics, it's practically arbitrary. You could flip a coin and get tails 9/10 of the times but the probability woulf still be 50%. Same thing with this; retards believed Marilyn's stats because they don't want to sound stupid even though it literally makes no sense. You can't tell the difference from a 66% probability to a 50% probability in choices like these irl. It may have seemed like it was 66% to some people but this goes back to my coin example. It's 50% until you provide with a coherent logical argument.

So what are you saying?
A whole lot of nothing so far

You can explain it to yourself by trying this at home.

It's super easy to try at home if you have 1 friend to help

Yes in your example it's 33% but in the goat example you have the option to CHANGE your decision out of TWO choices after the guy opens the doorr with the goat. TWO. Automatically becomes a 50% chance.

There is no reaction face to this level of mental fuckedupness.

Thus shit is far beyond retardation.

That's just plain stupid...

You had 33% when you had 3 doors.
Now, you have 50% when you have 2 doors.

There's no 66%-bullshit-thing here.

You have to take the new datas into account before doing any probability. The previous statement (3 doors, 2 wrong) can no longer be used, because it's no longer relevant. Now, you have 1 door, 1 wrong. That's 50/50.
End.

You obviously switch.
Choose 1 door
Choose 2 doors
What's retard would choose 1?

Trying at home will not solve my question.
I'm asking here.

yet he is not wrong

As always, this problem is presented wrong. Good job OP you fucking retard

This may be an easier way to think about it.
You pick door 1 - 33% chance to have car.
Door 2 + 3 - 66% to have car
Door 3 is revealed to be a goat.
Door 1 still 33% to have a car
But now door 2 is 66% chance to have a car since you know door 3 is a goat.

still not

still not what

This.

No, you misunderstand.
If your first choice had 33%, then it's 66% the car is one of the 2 door you DID NOT choose.
One of the doors you.did not choose will ALWAYS be opened.

So the door that you didn't choose (66%)
Only one left.
That door has 66%

Really Think about it before spouting nonenses.

It's a pretty simple answer.
When you made your first choice you had a 1/3 chance. That means that the other two doors had a combined chance of 2/3. When the host opens one of those doors he eliminates one of the options, but the simple fact is that at the start of this scenario you knew only that it was behind one of the doors. This is still true.
At this point you may say "Well now it's 1/2" but this is wrong. When you chose your first door you only knew it had a 1/3 chance. You KNOW that the other door has a 1/2 chance. This is the crux of the puzzle.

The first choice has the 33 % of being the correct one..but when a door is opened the probability change, for this reason switch door is the only choice mathematically correct

No, The explained it wrong as well, just like OP.
There is not enough information given here for switching to make a difference

You're all being fucked with, they're wasting your time. When a goat door is revealed, that choice is known and discarded. The second door doesn't gain the third door's power like some fucking magic show, the choice changes to two doors.

33% changes to 50% when a goat door is revealed. Which number of the door doesn't matter at all.

Still is.

Unless you think magic is real.
>him do think magic is real because retard.

It is simple
But it's not simple to understand.
Hence the retards...

The opened goat door is part of the probability equation, you can't just take it out. To do so is a mental fallacy.

We are looking for the door with the car, never mind the goat for a second.
each door has a 33% chance for a car.
so Door 1 = 33% which means the remaining door 2+3 makes up the 66%. If you were to pick 2+3 as a package you'd have 66% chance for the car, and the host gives you a freebie telling you door 3 isn't the car.
Door 2 then has 66% chance.

Why do dumb fucks always say
"Not enough information"...

There is.
You don't understand the information.

The host always opens a door with a goat though, never a car. He knows whats behind all 3 doors

It only works if A, the host always opens a door and B, there's always a goat behind that door

You don't know this though

Someone should set up a game show and only offer the switch when they've selected a car. It would shut all you braindead fucktards up

That matters none. Don't try to change the rules or add in unrelated factors, it won't work with me. I don't care why you want to waste our time, but why do you want to waste your time? No one may remember you anyway, but is this how you want to remember yourself?

This. Not one of these 66% dudes can explain why it is NOT a 50% chance.
Theres only two doors left. And theres a new problem. There are two doors left, two choices.
This is the new situation. A new calculation will result in 50%.

This. This is exactly what I've been saying, user.

I guess I took the bait

>prove the negative
What are you, a catholic?

Obviously nothing gains magical power from another...
But if it's 2/3 you did not choose the right door, how does knowing ways behind one of those doors change anything?

1/3 you picked right, 2/3 you picked wrong.
If you don't get that switching from 1/3 to 2/3 is double then you are an idiot

Lets say theres a million doors, and a car behind one of them

After you pick, the host opens 999,998 doors with goats in them, leaving your door and one other door

Is it still 50-50 then between the last 2 doors?

Just simulate the game with your friend if you have one

if you always switch you will win 66% of the times

I have no idea what you said or who's side you're on.....who are you?

How about this then, say that you had 100 doors? You choose door number 1, I show that there is a goat behind 98 of the doors since I open all doors except yours and door number 44. Would you still keep yours?

So you mean this:

Theres 2 doors I need to choose between.
How is it not 50% ?
It doesn't matter how many doors you opened before. They are of no concequence to the choice I have to make at this moment.
There are 2 doors to choose from. 50%.

wrong. see

Pic related.

Either admit your a moron or kill yourself.

It has been explained.
You can't discard information, your wouldn't have the complete problem.
It's a pure game of chance.
Imagine 2 bags of rocks, one is 2x larger than the other.
If i tell you one of these 2 bags contain diamonds, the small bag would have 1/3 chance while the large bag has a 2/3 chance.

If i now empty the larger bag of half its contents, and they are all rocks. Knowing what you know from the start, the remaining content of the larger bag now has a 66% chance to have diamonds.

If you still don't get it, I'm just going to call you a troll.

Don't try and tell me how it is.
I believe I am right so reality is irrevant

You must be from Tumblr with that attitude

That is a horrible example. A better example would be 3 bags with one of them being diamond. Still 50%.

Troll
>you knew this was coming

You just can't wrap your head around 2 and 3 being a packaged deal.

It's been explained, and will likely be explained many more times.

You not being able to understand the explanation is very different to no explanation

You must hide behind a barrier of memes and assume I'm from a "site u dunt liek" because you have to succumb to the generic internet mindset of being rude. You can hold your head up as high as you want, but if you get such an urge to publicly announce your opinions that you start foaming at the mouth, then you look like a dick.

Nice goin' pal.

Easiest way to explain why it's 2/3 if you switch;

Car is behind door 2

You pick 1, you switch you win

You pick 3, you switch you win

You pick 2, you switch you lose

Staying only wins in one instance

It's no longer a package deal if you take away what makes it a package deal. It's a completely different problem.

I fucked up.
I.meant the opposite which was obvious to any non retard.
OP Has 5 weeks off work....
You bet he's drinking many of those night a.

it's not very clear to be fair

What evidence would you have that it's behind door number 2? 2/3 guys are trolls

I still have no idea what you meant the opposite of, but I can respect you're drunk so you don't have to try explain further. Why should you owe me anything anyway? After all those nights of love....

Not an argument. That's like having 2 doors with one of them having a goat AND a car while the other having just the goat. Seriously, do you think about your what you're about to say before posting them?

Switch. because in the begining you have a 2/3 chance that your guess was wrong. But once he picks one of the goats the chance now goes down to 1/2 if you pick again.

Trollolo

No.
It's the fact that it's been explained numerous times and you still don't get it.
You don't even acknowledge that perhaps you are wrong, just militant. " I AM RIGHT BECAUSE I BELIEVE I AM "

That's Tumblr mentality.

Wait I want to change the rules like these guys! I want two good lads by my side so we can all open a door and take off in the sunset with a car and two goats.

Congratulations. People on both side of the argument think you're wrong

It's not an argument, to be fair.

There are people who understand it's 2/3 if you switch and people who don't understand math

What about that confused you?
Also explain why it confused you.

This should be fun.

On guess 1 you have 33% chance for car. Once you pick and 1 of the others is shown to have a goat, you now have a second guess. This second guess is between two doors, 1 with a car and 1 with a goat. This is 50% chance for car. The first guess has become irrelevant.

Imagine there's 100 doors with 99 goats and 1 car. I ask you to pick one door out of 100, then I eliminate every door expect for the one you picked and the one that has a car. Are you confident in your 1 in 100 pick? Or would you switch to the only door left?

You wouldn't know that about me, I observe my options, then after seeing a lot of bullshit caused onto people that don't need it, I tell them they're being lied to. I believe you are a liar and a waster of your own time, this magical thing we name life like anything else and you spend it here, doing THIS.

see

OOOOH i like that