Current electoral analysis:
youtube.com
TLDR:
6 swing states matter:
CO
IA
OH
PA
NC
FL
Trump MUST WIN
PA
OH
FL
and either
CO and IA
or NC
MI and WI are longshots
NY is not in play
Based on latest available polls realclearpolitics.com
Discuss or give me arguments
Other urls found in this thread:
realclearpolitics.com
youtube.com
motherjones.com
realclearpolitics.com
wsbtv.com
twitter.com
I'm fairly certain Trump has OH and PA down. Rust Belt blue collars don't like Hillary. FL has a lot of hispanics, but Cubans tend to hate Democrats anyway. He's got a better shot with NC than others I'm pretty sure.
Biggest ? mark at this point is PA. He needs to put a lot of focus there and lock it up or he is fucked outside a WI/MI miracle
Well here's how it went the last 2 times.
Trump is fucked.
...
Hillary's shenanigans will come back to bite her in her fat ass
watch the video it addresses that and more
Trump can ABSOLUTELY win and likely will, but this video is giving a bit more info than
>muh trump
>cant stump the trump
>trump win landslide
All he has to do is win the states Romney did in 2012, and then win Ohio Florida and Pennsylvania/Michigan. No easy feat, but it can be done.
Current polls have Trump neck and neck with Clinton in those states.
It is so close I can taste it.
NC is likely red. No Obama means less blacks which means less democrat votes and they went red last time anyway.
I'm very certain that if Bernie were to run 3rd party along with Trump and Hillary, the results would be like this
Which is why he's going to go into full damage control mode after the convention.
Can someone explain why people are already counting VA Blue? seems open to me.
Flip CO and IA and give NC to trump and yeah that sounds about right
Terrible map even beyond the third party memeing. How Democratic do you think those states are that they could split and still beat Trump?
>Romney
Democrat states would vote for Hillary and Republican states would split the vote between Sanders and Trump, resulting in a landslide Hillary victory.
NC is ~22% black you might have a good point. But I think trump will get more black votes than romney because
a. no obama
b. trump
no polls, link if you can find I couldn't
>cornered by 4 blue states
>Utah is the only red state that borders you
How long till AZ and UT get overrun by Mexicans and go blue?
...
That's before Republicans ruled the house and senate.
Trump is going to win.
>says the leaf
>2012
No it wasn't.
theoretically this election...hopefully this changes
I live in MI and he could win here. He has a fuck ton of support and a fuck ton of black people who say "fuck dat nigga trump." Depends if blacks turn out to vote for HRC. Crazier things have happened
In 2012 people only voted Romney because anyone would be better than Obama. This time around people are voting Republican because they actually want Trump.
Did they poll U of A students or something? No way AZ goes blue this election, but o wouldn't be surprised if we did a few elections from now
2012 was win they won the house back. They didn't have the senate until 2014.
>MA
>Sanders
we voted Hillary, and if it was a 3 way race, expect the result to either be Trump or Hillary
sage this fucking leaf
When the Bernie Bros literally implode they will help protest vote Trump into Office.
well you need to get out the vote then bro because you life in a state that matters.
Romney did far better than Trump in the primary....
You people are just making shit up as you go, aren't you?
Why would they? he's literally Hitler
watch the video "people" and vague national polls dont matters
6 states do
OH
PA
CO
IA
FL
NC
unless polls change drastically those are the battleground THIS YEAR
>Romney did far better than Trump in the primary....
>Trump got way more votes
javascript:quote('');
That's why Trump is going to get the most votes in GOP Primary History...despite having 16 other candidates at the start.
err read as VT
VA is blue, it is adressed in video or this link
realclearpolitics.com
Ah, very true, my mistake.
Romney was against 3 other candidates nobody knew about (except Ron Paul, he lacked support) and still managed to get less votes than Trump, who was battling against 15 other candidates
>NC not going red
PA's a given, barely a percent between Obongo and Mittens last time, and the monkey actually still had the white working class behind him then.
not an argument since you clearly didnt watch the video...NC is likely red but polls indicate it is battleground
Gotta say this is dispiriting. I knew he was at a disadvantage, I didn't realize his best realistic case for winning was squeaking by just 3 extra electoral votes.
PA I think would have to be a near miracle to pull off. That's what Trump has done all season, but PA is heavily pivoted by Philadelphia.
As far as I can see, all Shillary has to pick up is 1 or 2 states, Trump has to try to run the table on 4-5. That means he'll be expending more time, money, energy...the odds are not in his favor.
Damn. I fucking hate the fact that CA gives that witch 55, loads of dems here even hate her living guts.
If Obongo couldn't swing the state blue with the Black vote in 2012 than Clinton sure fucking can't
polls indicate PA is his toughest battleground state next to FL check the linked image
I'm in CO and will be voting Trump. I think it will go to Clinton, though.
Yeah. I'm an autist Sup Forumsack for trump but this video breaks down the sober reality that YES he can win but its going to take more than meme magic
Can't wait for polls to come out of CO I think it has a strong shot to go Repub especially after Delegategate
Please be true...
Trump is very pro Le weed hopefully that can strongly appeal
And he struggled far more and for far longer than Romney did.
And he has proven to be far more polarizing than Romney was within the party. If it weren't for former Democrats and independents voting in the Republican primaries he wouldn't nearly have done as well.
He needs to bridge those divisions, as Ryan said, but he's been arrogant about it.
PA bro here, Trump has my support
Well duh because Romney didn't haven any real opponents; he was going to be the nominee from day 1. Trump was legit battling everyone and Rato was actually pretty good at campaigning.
I know my girl in Philly is voting for him
You sure? Because the GOP House/Senate majorities seemed to happen pretty specifically due to low turnout.
Why is everyone burying their heads in the sand about the Georgia polls for the last months?
GA is a swing state now. Be very fucking careful
>Le weed wins Coloradans
They already have their weed
>Georgia
>swing state
Wait what!?
>South voting democrat
This isn't the 60s lad.
you're literally either an idiot or a shill
btfo
If obongo couldn't swing it then why can Hillary? No reason there
Check the flag GA is red state lock
Okay, thought for a second there the world turned upside down.
See the polls
A so called safe state and youre proving your point showing a poll when he's barely up by 1 (UNO) point?
I swear this is Romney every again, faggots daydreaming about taking Colorado and Michigan when Georgia and Utah are in danger
Trump wins by taking OH, VA and doing the miracle in PA. He wont win FL and it wouldnt matter in that case
>They didn't check the flag
youtube.com
This video will cost one of the candidates the election
Aussies are literally upsidedown so that's understandable
1 poll of 500 LV (likely voter = skewed stat)
Clinton has gone on record recently defending 3rd term abortions
motherjones.com
Utah is 65% Mormom
I know they HATE New York Trump but please explain how UT goes blue.
Again, check the flag and sage this shill/idiot
We'll win NM with Martinez as VP.
Clinton winning in Utah:
realclearpolitics.com
Uno (1) punto in Georgia
wsbtv.com
nah, how fucking old are bill clintons rape allegations? Nobody ever gave a fuck, but there's a movie about Clarence Thomas being a shitbird in the meantime, because of sexual harassment.
you're suggetsing pic related
problem is the chance of him taking VA over FL seems unlikely based on polls in this thread and the OP video
martiznez is not VP
gingrich will be VP
Colorado will go blue.
Fuck so he does need FL after all
Didnt know Virginia was so lost
if CO goes blue he needs a WI/MI miracle
doesnt change he needs FL
Gingrich is redundant as VP, brings even more baggage. He has near Edwards level scumbaggery on his record. A 69 year old paired with a 73 year old. You think that'll sell?!?
Huntsman is the best VP pick, if Trump can swing it.
Yeah, Huntsman will really rally those conservative voters that Trump needs to unify the party...
Based in your map if Trump gets FL he can afford to lose CO and no WI/MI miracle needed
>Huntsman
Muh nigga. I made threads about him 5 years ago
Well, I guess he would at least calm down and his fears.
yeah should have added within your previous framework of him taking VA over FL, in that case what I said is true
Trump is going to win in a lot of blue states that no one is even considering or paying attention to and surprise a lot of people. Blue means democrat or just left of center. The democratic party has been hijacked by psychotic far left socialist globalists, and a lot of moderate democrats are sick of it.
They've pulled the pendulum way too far and it's about to swing back farther than ever. The fire rises.
Yeah, Im worried there arent many realistic paths without FL. Even more concerned that the upset in PA is becoming also a must instead of a ice surprise.
And, despite the lack of polls, I really doubt dude weed lmao Colorado is in play
The problem is the GA is a must. VP should be targeted to OH PA or FL
If Trump cannot hold supposed safe states such as GA or NC then this race is over before beginning
not an argument
watch the video
trump is the best candidate republicans have had since reagan and hillary is the worst since mondale. there is hope
CO, IA, PA, and OH will never go for Trump, there' just now way.
Even when compared to hilary he's down 20 points in IA, which is his best state out of those four, PA he will never get and Ohio he's down 30 points. you can't make that up in a few months
This is false, trump polls extremely low in every blue state, he has no chance of getting them. He's not even likely to win Indiana this year
...
sage this shill
provide an argument or get out shill
I don't even like Hillary, I believe she belongs in prison. But using outdated data and ignoring facts isn't going to help. We should keep from emotional data manipulation and focus how to actually make progress.
Also you can't sage a reply as replies don't need bumped
Wait until the debates start. An economic genious who wrote a best seller on verbal persuasion with an iq that makes him a literal genious versus an emotional strung out psychotic globalist feminist with a list of scandals behind her a mile long.
It's going to be a fucking bloodbath.
My only real fear at this point is after he wins the jews just have him killed in a last desperate move.
don't forget possible stroke victim
look at her in 08 vs today vs bernie of all people
the 3 debates...Trump will absolutely dominate
Trump is a fucking savage. He is literally going to make Hillary Clinton irrelevant. There is SO, SO, much there he can use against her. Plus, a good percentage of the the Socialist neckbeards hate Hillary more than Trump.
Man, this thread is depressing.
why? because life isnt
>muh trump
>muh shillary
no its politics. its fucking tough. it takes a big win in unlikely states.
thank God we have Donald Trump at the helm.
Genius
Leader
Builder
He can do it, but if you live in those states you gotta campaign
If you don't, like me, then shill trump content
Stop self hating you fucking disgrace.
It's true. You fags have memed so hard and got so far but...
Indeed. The people who are saying trump cant possibly win so and so states seem to be ignoring that trump has not even begun to work on destroying hillary yet. Look how easily Trump decimated all 18 of his rivals. Pretty much every single one having much less bad baggage compared to Hillary.
Once Donald starts attacking Hillary, and really exposing what kind of woman she is, she won't have a chance. Plus straight up, a lot of democrats fucking hate her. I know im in canada but even the fags who voted in weedman really hate Hillary.
How? CO will most likely go Democrat, if he can't take that then he needs to take WI and MIC, which is a longshot.