6 STATES MATTER: Current electoral analysis

youtube.com/watch?v=3s17pwLNBJk

TLDW:

6 states are in play this year
CO
IA
OH
PA
NC
FL

Trump needs FL PA OH

and either NC or IA/CO (4/6 or 5/6)

Current and past polling data from realclearpolitics.com included

post discussion or arguments

Other urls found in this thread:

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_clinton-5542.html
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reagan_Democrat
twitter.com/SFWRedditGifs

You say trump probably can't put Michigan and Wisconsin in play but if he closes the gap in PA shouldn't he be competitive there too?

>claiming Virginia has safe blue. We aren't.
If Trump picks a Military man as his running mate he will win us.
Tired of this nonsense. We're a southern State. Most of the people who vote Dem aren't liberal.

PA is his toughest state and a MUST WIN unless he can either swing MI and WI without PA (unlikely) or take IA/CO/NC and a small blue state

I hope you're right but if you watch the video this is addressed. VA is likely blue this year man

Trump has Florida

Trump probably has Ohio. There were about 750,000 more voters in the Republican primary than the Democrat primary

Pennsylvania is extremely close. Trumps VP pic could decide it

North Carolina is also very close, the Republicans only had like 20,000 more voters show up


The most important thing for Trump in PA is to smash Hillary on Job creation and to stick with his "America First" ideology

WI and MI will be easy wins

I thought Iowa was a solid red state?

>implying Trump won't sweep the country

shit bait

Daily reminder that Trump HASN'T EVEN STARTED ON SHILLARY YET.

Went blue for Obama, is in play this year

of trumps 2 paths, 1 involves NC the oither involves IA and CO combo

Actually this is fact based pro-trump content so people have more than

>muh trump
>muh shillary jail btfo
>muh shill if no landslide
>muh trump never stump

How about watch the video and find out that trump has a tight but realistic path so you're not BTFO in nov

Muh Virginia is a blue state meme
>implying the last two weren't flukes because of black turnout
>implying Hillary will have anywhere near the same black turnout
>implying the Virginia governor giving 200,000 criminals voting rights isn't an act of desperation

daily reminder this is CURRENT ELECTORAL ANALYSIS based on current, available pols

>muh trump
>muh he cant be stumped
>muh landslide

watch the video

It's an act of desperation but one that could tip the scales. 200,000 is yuge

>shilling for a felon

I dont see why Trump would lose a Romney won state that is currently under attack by Obama

Again, hope you're right but look out for those VA polls.

lol low iq peasant...its a pro trump video in a pro trump forum with pro trump commens, how the fuck am I shilling for shillary?

You made this video?

Iowa voted for Cruz in the primaries, a guy whose policies and stances would rape Iowa worse than China rapes the US on trade

They're masochists out there in the corn fields, who the fuck knows why they vote the way they do

>Clinton leads in the state where the federal government spends its salaries collected from the rest of the states

Sounds about right.

you're thinking Indiana, which is firm red

IA went blue for obama twice and like I said is swing state

no it was posted last night and i saved it because its short and makes a point wanted to see if this guy was full of shit or not

The video is garbage for the simple reason that he is absolutely certain that blue states will remain blue. While this is certainly true for Cali and probably NY, MI and such, others are fair game if Trump plays his cards right (i.e. vilifies Shillary so much not even the most hardcore "TRUMP IZ RAYCISS" fags could stomach voting for her).

This is outdated btw.

Sorry I meant NC, not Iowa

Trump WILL win WI and NC against Hilary. Book it bitch

i thought michigan and virginia were in play this year

NC is a sure thing. Wisconsin is tough. Trump didn't even win the primary. Not saying he can't win it, just saying that he didn't win the primary, and the state hasn't gone red since 1988.

They both are. Michigan is less certain though, and tougher for him to get.

When a swing state gets burned by the guy it backs, it backs the other side next time around. Otherwise it wouldn't be called a swing state.

As usual, Dems' promises while campaigning have only turned into accusations and insults once they rise to power. Hillary is clearly posed to make this exact same play. First you promise something to get action out of people, then you demonize and excommunicate them once they call in their own share of the loot. This has been how Democrats roll since the start of the republic.

just checked those are latest polls

realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/va/virginia_trump_vs_clinton-5542.html

He will swing Michigan. Michigan has been hit hardest by NAFTA, which was rubber stamped by Clinton. Only the niggers in Detroit might be too dumb to realize.

i linked VA polls here
and pic related is MI

as of RIGHT NOW they are not in play but trump can change that

did you even watch the video?

romney took NC back but it is defintely not a solid red state this cycle

Reminder that Trump v Clinton brings VT and ME into play since gun owning Bernouts make up most of the Dems
Also our caucus was rigged preventing at poll party change for Dems and midday closing times favored old retired fucks.

hilldog had a 30 pt lead in the polls but got BTFO by bernie in michigan

What about Maine's second congressional district?

I hope, if he takes MI he will have neccesarily taken PA which he needs. MI is cherry on top or insurance more than anything.

Also a long shot at this point, based on current polls. Again all this changes as more data comes out

Daily reminder that the Republicans will never win an election ever again due to demographics alone.

It'd be interesting to see a draw.
Trump would still win because Republicans have the house right?

interesting theory no polls in either state but that would be glorious to se VT NH ME go red this year

typical euro cuck coming in uninivted into an ameri-pol thread and talking shit.

your country is overrun by african rapists and your women love it. you're literally cucked.

lmao thats an insane map because its not THAT out of the realm of possibility. doubtful to see red MI and blue PA but yeah in that case HR decides and I beleive they must decide between trump and clinton i.e. no Ryan coupe

Virginia niggers have no one to vote for you fucking faggots
VA goes red this year

The 12th Amendment allows them to vote on the top three candidates, so if a third party Establishment Republican was running and pulled in some NeverTrumpers, the House could hijack the election for that candidate, but that's farfetched at this point and it's safe to say Trump would win the vote

Trump will win California and New York. Mark my words.

>IA
>OH
>NC
>DL
>blue

all these virginia repubs who don't get VA is lost cause pending the right VP pick

Our elections usually aren't that rigged, Schkelgruber.


Believe me, I wish CA could be taken out of the witch's hands, there's millions of Ds here that even hate her guts and the state isn't as solidly liberal as people think. No one screams about disenfranchisement when the biggest state just falls in D hands everytime...The whole game would change if the map were proportional rather than WTA.

Michigan has better turnout numbers, although Trump won the primary with a smaller margin.
Michigan also has more Bernouts to lure in.

It's not a direct house vote. It's one house member per state, meaning guaranteed Republican victory.

>2/22 - 3/24

CO is blue.
VA is a battleground
NH and NV may also be battlegrounds

>The whole game would change if the map were proportional rather than WTA.
It would favor Republicans, right? I have seen these county maps where even in the most blue states most counties are won by the republicans but the cities are populated much more. Chicago vs Illinois is probably the best example, also Washington/Oregon/NY.

I am curious why you think is Colorado is blue while NH/NV are battlegrounds, despite the "Californication" it's still 80% white.

Also NC is more likely red than not.

interesting data and good point

Old blacks are Republican; young blacks don't vote.

If you're black and you remember the civil rights act then you are not a Democrat, period. Shillbots with iPhones pretend some mysterious 'reversal' happened, either under John "get a Fucking job" Kennedy or LBJ who locked people up for opposing the Vietnam war.

Or maybe it was Jimmy Carter.

>This is a song about everything~
>That Jimmy Carter did~

Dude weed lmao

Yeah I thought about that too. Still, it went red in 04 for Dubya so why isn't it possible now (again it's still 80% white like it was in 04).

dubya almost won wisconsin too, oddly enough.

Californians who want to work fled the state. Californians who want communism and genetic extinction are happy where they are.

so it's going red

Michigan is interesting because, in the primaries, Trump crushed Macomb County in both primary results and overall voter turnout. Macomb County is the home of the Reagan Democrats, who (as the name implies) haven't gone red since Reagan. I still suspect Michigan will go blue this cycle, but if they have any chance of going red, we'll see it sooner rather than later.

lol you trumptards will be screaming this even as Hillary puts her hand on the bible to sworn into office. KEK.

MI almost always goes blue in national elections, its a union thing.

Macomb County went 53-45 for Obama in 2012.

>Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reagan_Democrat

Safe Trump, all farmers up here. We lost 5 factories in last 2 years because of Dem policies. Only Portland will go blue.
We just repealed all our gun and knife laws. One of highest household gun ownership rates in world.
Trump lite govenor, put Rs in Congress since forever. Obama was a fluke.
We have heroin and Somalian problem (fucking swedecuck immigrants).

Rato only won because it was an early caucus and Trump was still a wildcard to normies. The caucus sites were consolidated to 1 or 2 per county (hour+ drive for many) and most closed around noon. Meanwhile Dems had 10 or so sites and were open to 7pm and didn't require ID to vote. This skewed votes towards old fucks who were scared of Trump.
Berniebots will go Trump at a higher rate here.

Exactly, they always go blue, but this cycle, they've suddenly gone red (under the candidacy of someone whose platform invokes Reagan in several ways). There's no telling where they'll go come November, but the primary turnouts in Macomb County were more surprising to me than Bernie's upset statewide victory

Michigan will go red, Penisylvanyia will go blue.

269/269, senate chooses the next president.

Great info but Obama won 56-42 in 2012, Trump needs to win 100k votes... Dubya didn't do better either and he won Iowa, came close in Wisconsin, ... etc

I think NH or even Vermont is more likely (2nd amendment)

>he doesn't know Paul Manafort's track record

Kek

Thats because the densly populated areas vote democrat. Illinois outside of chicagoland is almost like a prairie moon: flat, bleak, and unpopulated. California is in a similar boat, Norcal is mostly red but LA and the bay are blue. Guess where the vast majority of Californians live.

Why? Michigan is heavier blue historically than PA. Bush lost PA by 2% in 2004.

Paul .. what? What's his name again guys?

How come Oregon is always a blue state?
Isn't it 90% white?

I think he can win, but the people who say it's going to be a landslide are just as wrong as people who say it will be a landslide in Clinton's favor. It will be really close, and hopefully he swings PA and MI, FL and OH are 100% going for Trump. Especially Ohio, he's not only polling better outside the margin or error in the most recent poll, but he also literally had more votes than her while she won the state and Trump didn't.

As an Ohioan I guarantee a red state come November

But unions are more likely to support Trump than "we're going to put a lot of coal miners out of business" Shillary this election cycle.

I'm just giving them the benefit of the doubt.

>As an Ohoian
Can you give some info on your state's identity? It is a very interesting state election wise because Republicans have never won the presidency without winning it...

What are the biggest reasons for it being so close between Dems and Repubs?

Tfw Clinton will win PA

The problem is ME isn't really like any other state, aside from NH which will certainly go red this year, we are a libertatian state who voted Perot (Trump lite) and Ron Paul. Bush (1 and 2) was not liked at all, McCain even less, and Rmoney was hated for being the stereotypical greasy rich Masshole tourist who comes up and ruins our summer. We are Reagan and mountainman Dems so Hillarys anti gun pro immigrant rhetoric will not work.
We're a red state that has been blue because of the terrible candidates that have run

Trump will definitely take NC. It's only considered a swing state because McCain was such a loser he lost the state along with Indiana, but no one considers IN a toss-up. Then OH, FL and PA will pass Trump over the finishing line.

>from +17 to +9

Is There a reason behind the DNC's autism?

>tfw playing on impossible difficulty and trying to flip Maryland for Trump

I need your help, bros.

I always see Massholes being hated on, what's up with that lol?

I hope you're right about your state, man. I checked WIkipedia and Perrot was second in your state for Bush which is quite telling.... If anyone can make it happen in these states it's Trump I guess...

I could also see him taking a state like Wisconsin, Bush lost that state by barely 12k votes in 04! It's still very white too.

Why are you so certain Trump will win Maine? Hasn't gone red in 30 years. Trump didn't win the caucus. In 2012, Maine was one of the few states where white men voted for Obama. There is clearly something wrong with your heads to do that. If your white guys voted for Obama, they will vote for CLinton out of guilt.

Well we've voted for the winning president 28/30 times in the last 30 elections, the best percentage out of any state. I've always thought it's because we are a vector point between the liberal Penn/Mich and the conservative Midwest/South. Cleveland, Columbus, Cincy, Dayton are all blue cities, but there's lots of people outside the cities that can toss it up. I was originally hoping for Kasich to be the VP just to make sure we go red, but I don't think we even need it. Although a Trump/Portman (OH Senator) ticket would be badass, he's a great Senator. Sherrod Brown is the other one and could possibly run with Shillary, he's a faggot

Ironically Portman went to University of Michigan, which is our state's mortal enemy. While Brown and Kasich went to Ohio State.

Individual union members, yes. But if you think union leadership would EVER vote republican, or even abstain from telling all of their members to support the democratic candidate, you're uninformed. Unions vote democrat. Every time. Forever.

Again, individual members may recognize that Trump's platform is more in line with their best interests, but Union administrators will always vote democrat, and will always encourage their members to do so as well, regardless of the candidate.

Too many blacks, isn't it?

>why does Oregon go blue if it's 90% white?

Halo Effect. Not enough exposure to shitskins makes them cucks. Just enough exposure makes people vote red. Too many shitskins and it swings back to blue because of demographics.

lol i play on california difficulty, so I spend my time shilling for trump and red pilling my friends

And to which extent do these members fall in line? Trump is a pretty unique candidate desu, conventional thinking doesn't count as much.

Massachusetts is perhaps the most liberal state in the country. It's the only state that went blue in the election of 1972, for McGovern, basically a Bernie Sanders type. It's only ever gone red in 1984 for Reagan's second term. The state is a lost cause and is a manifestation of every negative stereotype you have about cucked liberals.

Full disclosure: I moved from NH to Massachusetts, and it's everything they said it would be

Yup

>yfw the D.C. area has comparable levels of crime to Detroit and Chicongo

>Too many shitskins and it swings back to blue because of demographics.
Wouldn't that mean Southern states should be blue? States like Mississipi have 35% blacks or is there a racial solidarity in those states to the extent that it can still be comfortably red?

teamsters

A healthy mix of poor working class whites living in farms suburbs and trucks and inner city blacks disenfranchised from the American economy due to the downturn in manufacturing over the past few decades. Hence the name for the I80 corridor "the rust belt." It's pot marked with abandoned businesses, decrepit factories from a better day, and urban blight as far as the eye can see. Passing through Cleveland was like living through the walking dead except the zombies were the American working class and the overgrown buildings abandoned not from plague but poverty. The lackluster job growth really plays into trumps hand but the state isn't nearly as conservative as others. The biggest issue is seeing the jobs return.

>tfw IA
>tfw not voting
feels good mayne