Is the bubble about to pop? Econbros help me out
Fed Rate Hike in June
Jace Rogers
Other urls found in this thread:
research.stlouisfed.org
data.bls.gov
zerohedge.com
youtube.com
zerohedge.com
ssa.gov
census.gov
bloomberg.com
reuters.com
theguardian.com
bloomberg.com
money.cnn.com
money.cnn.com
greaterfool.ca
businessinsider.com.au
nytimes.com
reuters.com
theguardian.com
twitter.com
Parker Ramirez
They can't hike the rates, they're just talking shit.
It's literally Depression 2.0 if they pull this shit, they're more likely to run NIRP
Easton Cruz
Yes, the stock market is in a big, juicy bubble.
Hudson Young
Just when Obama is about to leave.
Clearly not biased at all.
Aiden James
They're holding it off, weaponizing the economic crash so they can drop it at the right moment to assume full control
Samuel Morris
Any chances of deflation if the bubble pops?
I'm heavy on cash at the moment and would love to buy up a bunch of shit at depressed prices.
Dominic Nguyen
Lets see, yeah it syncs up with China conquering the and the world back when in depressions, along with ISIS attacking in Ramadan before brexit, also Zika outbreak at the Olympics.
The columns of dates need to be moved to the right.
Hunter Bennett
>inflation edging towards 2%
>unemployment literally the closest to the Fed's mandate in history
There's no excuse not to hike. And no it's not a conspiracy.
Josiah Jones
Not really, you'd only see sustained deflation in an economy facing a severe structural misalignment (Europe, Japan). The US doesn't have either shaky banks (Europe) or zombie corps/demographic issues(Japan).
Juan Wright
>these made up numbers
Blake Davis
Wait till after they announce the hike.
The most likely scenario is deflation, followed by a drop in gold and silver.
Buy it up after it reaches 1k to 1100, and silver at 13 to 15. The bubble will most likely have a delayed pop, which gives you time to bank some PM's before the crash and Weimar inflation.
Don't invest in energy or mining unless you can sit on it for a while.
Other than that, keep a diverse portfolio, including cash, and PM's.
Biotechnology might drop pretty quick when the free money runs out, when they hit bottom is the time to buy, if the companies exist without bankruptcy. I would sell biotechnology when they announce a hike.
Jeremiah Bennett
>don't agree with it
>must be made up
Jason Wright
Fuck I sold all my gold months ago. FUCK.
Hudson Adams
I'm not sure what part of the US you live in but even in top tier cities unemployment is everywhere.
Jace Lee
Yes it's about to burst. When Trump is elected it's crash and International Jewry will be exterminated by Based Assad & Putin
Robert Miller
so buy it back at the same price...
Xavier Powell
Obama isn't going to let it pop on his duration.
Leo Price
Buy food and guns you retard along with survival, medical, botanical books.
Wyatt Sanchez
The problem is that if you follow the financial markets. The market is completely inflated based mostly on companies buying their own stock by getting loans at 0-.25%. The moment the hike continues the market will basically colapse just for the fact that has been running on cheap money for years.
Oliver Wright
Unemployment is tricky to define/measure (i.e. U3 vs U6), so it can be a bit misleading. But it's unlikely to be like 20%
Landon Ramirez
No corporation is borrowing that low, research.stlouisfed.org
I agree though, a gradual rate normalization will inevitably constrain corporate buybacks and lead to a market correction. But maybe 10% not a complete collapse, if only because it'll happen everywhere.
Caleb Diaz
>>unemployment
Carson Powell
Yes, data.bls.gov
I agree though that can understate things
Jeremiah Nelson
I'm surprised you actually believe the official govt data. I'm pretty sure you believed the govt when they said Saddam had weapons of mass destruction too?
zerohedge.com
Josiah Walker
No lol, expect them to double the money supply or something retarded when shit hits the fan, even negative rates won't save them
Sebastian Wilson
>jobs created are part-time low-paying jobs
>official unemployment rate doesn't count people who aren't looking for a job because they've given up
Matthew Moore
This.
Conservatively I'd say double digits at least. Worst case scenario I'd say is about 25%. Especially when you take jnto account the retired, disabled, too young, or too old.
Isaiah Fisher
Wait, is my advice.
What we're about to see could very well rival Japan in the 90s (a roughly 20 year rollercoaster of plummeting share prices) or America in the great depression (~75% drop over 3 years), I'm inclined to think that it will be closer to the depression given that Japan had room to move it's interest rates down, which the fed can't really do and boomers are basically done with their borrowing while millenicucks can't afford to, and the fact that Japan had no insane private and public sector debt like USA. It seems logical that we're going to see a reversion to the historic mean price of the market, which happens all throughout history.
The best measure of an overvalued market is corporate equities to GDP, as as of August 2015 the US share market was at 129%. The 65 year mean is about 69%. There is no way the fed can keep this house of cards going forever, they only think they can, or they realize the nature of this giant ponzi scheme. You probably want your money more or less out of shares, listed property trusts and precious metals before the crash, then, ease back in when you feel like buying up, there'd be nothing worse than a fall turning from 50% to 75% when you think the worst is over.
Isaiah Reed
True, but it would be mitigated as long as the dollar is still used as a reserve currency. We can literally print our way out of debt, making more debt, and pay off our debts.
The house of cards only topples when other countries stop buying dollars as a hedge against loss, or if oil is traded in less and less dollars.
Oh wait...
Matthew Thomas
Levi Gonzalez
>inb4 Bill dies before general elections
Wyatt White
Or as soon as sovereign defaults start happening, which is inevitable
Adam Davis
I hate this uncharted territory.
A domino effect of defaults scare the shit out of me. Nobody wins.
Caleb Powell
Bumping. I'm not an expert but I read a lot of econ rumblings.
Ask me things.
Hudson Wilson
The broadest definition of "unemployment" puts it at
Robert Kelly
>I'm inclined to think that it will be closer to the depression given that Japan had room to move it's interest rates down
Japan already has negative interest rates though, only the rate paid on some bank reserves is >0%
>which the fed can't really do
The Fed funds rate is >0, i.e. higher than Japan
>boomers are basically done with their borrowing while millenicucks can't afford to
Very possible, the millenials don't seem to be borrowing much
>and the fact that Japan had no insane private and public sector debt like USA
Japan's debt to GDP ratio is about 2x higher than the US
Camden Richardson
There is a worldwide real estate bubble fueled by low interest rates in FED funds since 2008
You can bet your ass there is a shitstorm coming
Grayson Allen
But the BoC has maintained slightly higher rates than rhe Fed, yet Canada has a much more overheated housing market.
It's because of foreign capital flows not overnight rates.
Brandon Cruz
I should add that
Doesn't include people not in the labor force (retirees etc.), if you include them it's very possible to get 25% or greater.
Juan Morgan
Canada is so unbelievably fucked because of all the fucking gook investors that buy up properties in Canada. They're likely doing it to launder money. I love it; when that bubble pops it will show how much of a retarded cunt Trudeau and all the other leftists are.
Brody Bennett
Noah Richardson
322 million population in the USA
10% (probable unemployment) is 32 million.
24% (population under 18) 77 million
14.5% (65 and over) 46 million
(Retired and collecting social security) 43 million
(Disabled and collecting social security) 10.8 million
Idk man, it really doesn't look good. Granted, some of those categories aren't exclusive to each other, and may share people.
Can you imagine the Healthcare or insurance sectors taking a hit? Most of these recipients will be on medicare or medicaid, or if too young, on state coverage.
A downturn could mean real trouble.
Gabriel Brooks
Negative rates are probably not going to be effective, you can bring a horse to well of cheap money, but you can't make it borrow.
And I was talking about Japan 20 years ago when they had wiggle room to deal with their collapse. Not now under abenomics and their fucked situation where their central bank is the issuer of almost all gov debt.
Cameron Garcia
Yeah, my point is that you can borrow money in USD at lower rates and invest it on Canadian real estate
David Hall
Brayden Reed
You could yes, but people don't do USD carry trades in a substantial enough number to drive prices vs just directly buying property.
Ryan Rogers
>Is the bubble about to pop? Econbros help me out
It will pop if trump wins, and the economy will turn to hell, they did this same shit in Egypt when the non kosher candidate won.
Connor Wood
It's always going to pop. With QE and rate hikes from near 0% interest, they get to pick when.
Nolan Clark
This is a good point! See You can of course include more people in the labor force (i.e. the denominator for calculating unemployment), and deciding where to draw the line is hard.
>Most of these recipients will be on medicare or medicaid, or if too young, on state coverage.
Yeah, any cuts to medicare/caid or social security would be very destabilizing, especially as they're almost directly passed through the system.
>A downturn could mean real trouble.
It could yeah, and any cuts would themselves be recessionary.
Juan Bennett
Only 1 post by OP....
Thomas Diaz
>Negative rates are probably not going to be effective, you can bring a horse to well of cheap money, but you can't make it borrow.
100% agreed. It's a bad sign, and reflects very poorly on the future, when companies don't have any use for free money. This reflects either total unproductivity or future uncertainty, neither good.
>central bank is the issuer of almost all gov debt
I'm not sure it's quite that bad, but yeah Japan's weird. Check out how much of the stock market the BoJ now owns.
Adrian Flores
That's the problem though. We never make the cuts, and haven't paid on the principle in decades. We should have taken action when the debt started ballooning in relation to GDP.
If other nations lose faith in the dollar we won't have any choice but to cut.
Jose Butler
Last year at the review they were talking about how it was inevitable to switch to negative interest rates. She was clearly dancing around it saying how they were focused on improving minority and female work force participation.
Brandon Smith
>It's because of foreign capital flows not overnight rates.
>Canada is so unbelievably fucked because of all the fucking gook investors that buy up properties in Canada. They're likely doing it to launder money. I love it; when that bubble pops it will show how much of a retarded cunt Trudeau and all the other leftists are.
no. there's data out there that's hard to fish out, but foreign money is about 3% of vancouver purchases.
it's canadians. we're literally this retarded.
we didn't get much of a correction in '08 because the gov't allowed 0% down, 40-year amortization mortgages after the crash.
we have the canadian mortgage and housing corp, which basically is publicly funded and provides banks insurance against mortgage default.
think fannie mae and freddie mac times 2.
Alexander Edwards
>We should have taken action when the debt started ballooning in relation to GDP
Yeah we should've. Unfortunately we didn't and now there's a large underclass (blacks, hispanics etc) completely dependant.
The best way out is to accept a somewhat higher rate of inclation coupled with a freeze on spending growth.
>If other nations lose faith in the dollar
Won't happen, most other first-world countries are in a similar boat and aren't reserve currencies. USD is the last to go down.
>we won't have any choice but to cut
Yeah but at that point the financial system will be in chaos
Samuel Cox
Gonna happen sooner or later. Longer they delay it the worse it will be
Cameron Lee
>improving minority and female work force participation.
So tired of SJW trash
>dancing around it
Yeah next recession it's pretty likely
Julian White
Hey look a kike
Andrew Scott
Oh interesting, I'd love to see the data! I don't have any hard evidence about foreign purchases desu. I've been looking for some evidence either way.
But yeah CMHC is fucked up, and worse is basically free money for the banks.
Nicholas Price
Does this mean I will be able to go to my bank, take out a $1000 loan and pay back $900?
Zachary Williams
>Hey look a kike
Nah, just work in the field. GTKRWN
Brody Hill
Only if your bank is the Federal Reserve
Jordan Lopez
>no. there's data out there that's hard to fish out, but foreign money is about 3% of Vancouver purchases.
WRONG
bloomberg.com
Ethan Reyes
Fed will suddenly hike rates to make President Trump look bad.
Trump closes down Fed and arrests all the jews there.
Money printed at US Treasury only. Inflation stopped dead in its tracks.
America Becomes Great Again
Michael Kelly
>Does this mean I will be able to go to my bank, take out a $1000 loan and pay back $900?
Technically you take a loan out and the bank pays you interest on it. And you pay interest on any money you have in the bank.
But the first option will never happen
Daniel Scott
No, or at least not yet, but it means banks can over short periods of time. That lowers your borrowing cost, and if the overnight rate goes low enough than eventually yes.
Adam Gutierrez
read up on that estimate and the methodology
it was literally a couple guys writing on some napkins making up numbers
i'm as racist as they come, but you cucks will believe anything if it means you get to be racist
Carson Ross
>Econbros help me out
We don't need a rate hike, in fact it's terrible for the economy. But we'll get one anyway, because Jews.
Carson Mitchell
>"back of the envelope calculations" by National Bank of Canada.
lol i know some of those back-office guys personally
they're a shitshow
Austin Hill
To be fair they want to get welfare recipients, aka minorities and single moms, on lower benefits and on full time so they get health benefits.
The country is running out of money so it makes sense to get the people on benefits on a private companies benefits. Even if the coverage and plans are garbage shit tier, it discredits them from govt benefits.
Nathan Diaz
>If other nations lose faith in the dollar we won't have any choice but to cut.
>If
I've always heard this ominous warning, but no one has of yet explained to me what would actually prompt this to happen. If the multiple debt ceiling crises + Downgrading of the US's AAA rating over the past several years didn't do it just what the fuck actually would?
Thomas Gonzalez
I have provided a source for my claim that I believe to be legitimate, but I can be convinced if you can provide a credible source for your claim. If you're unable to do so, then you're full of shit and can fuck off.
Xavier Anderson
Is there any reliable data out there? It seems like there isn't enough to say either way.
To be fair thebarticle also cites an extrapolation of a survey.
Christopher Hughes
Haha fair point, it's not all bad
Jaxson Ward
AFAIK it would require the petrodollar to be replaced with another currency.
Jason Howard
>To figure out what an equivalent purchase volume for buyers from China in Toronto and Vancouver might be, Routledge looked for “useful survey data from which we can draw reasonable hypotheses” and found it in a Financial Times multiple choice survey of 77 high net worth and affluent mainland Chinese individuals, “admittedly not a statistically significant sample size,” he acknowledged. The survey found that of those who purchased residential real estate outside China, 33.5 per cent had done so in the United States (mainly in New York, Los Angeles, and also San Francisco) while 11.7 per cent bought in Vancouver and 8.3 per cent in Toronto.
They admit that they can't even into statistics but the media runs with the story anyways because they're desperate to report something that people want to hear
Asher Gutierrez
Nothing would, USD's the currency of the largest economy, the world's reserve currency, and what the most important commodity (oil) is traded in.
Even if people wanted an alternative there's no orher currency that would fit the bill except maybe EUR
Easton Hughes
Agreed, except there has been recent news about competing reserve currencies being bought (euro, yuan, etc) and dollars being sold.
Not to mention the recent uptick in nations not falling for the petrodollar meme.
reuters.com
theguardian.com
money.cnn.com
money.cnn.com
Jeremiah Robinson
You're a fucking idiot if you think they're gonna hike before the Presidential election
They've been talking hike for years now saying "I'm rly serious this time goys"
They won't fucking do it to risk going full Trumpsreich
If he wins they'll do it Q1 2017 so that dumb goyim blame Trump for an economic crash
If Clinton wins they'll do it Q2 2018 and cook up a boogerman to distract normie scum from Fed fuckery tanking the economy
Cap this
Hunter Foster
greaterfool.ca
and he's sourcing the vancouver real estate board who has plenty to gain from promoting the story that the chinese are buying everything
Jonathan Garcia
China produced nearly eight times more steel than any other nation in 2015
businessinsider.com.au
Christopher Bennett
Why would anyone even bother having a personal savings or checking account if they go to negative interest rates?
I guess they could try to force the issue since so much banking is done online now. But so far prepaid cards are still a thing. I could just cash my check and buy one and pay my bills online with it. I can't see them outlawing or pushing out prepaid cards since the rumor is they get so much free money from them. People spend it and have like .38 cents left on it and just toss it in the trash since it's not worth it. All the people using them adds up. thats money the card managers get for free.
Joseph Richardson
this has all been so that when the final blow comes, the system dies with no chance to reemerge.
you would be amazed how much effort went into seeing that this system dies and wealth dissolves with no hope to grow up again.
that only a new system can save us as the old one is failed and dead. the people never knowing it was engineered this way all along.
Kayden Fisher
SDRs from the IMF aren't themselves reserves though. And yes some countries do sell (some) oil in other currencies, but not the largest producers.
As for treasuries, look how much those sellofs moved yields--practically none. No other country has anywhere near as liquid a market as the US, not even the Euro. And while that's not directly fx related you need something to park your money in while holding it (unless you're holding it at the fed)
Adam Miller
>Nothing would, USD's the currency of the largest economy, the world's reserve currency, and what the most important commodity (oil) is traded in.
Careful with those words, its very much possible for the petrodollar to be replaced with something else. And there are countries out there right now trying.
>Why would anyone even bother having a personal savings or checking account if they go to negative interest rates?
The reason is to force people to spend their money as quickly as they get it to keep our consumer economy going.
Anthony Ramirez
It's really hard because the Chinese are money laundering, and Canada/banks know about it but look the other way. I'd say look for all the property owners with the last names Yang/Wang/Dang/Dong/Dilddly/Fong, and figure out which ones are foreign nationals, but they probably have shell companies and other tricks to hide their criminal activity.
I didn't ask you to criticize the Bloomberg article. I asked you to provide a better source that supports your view. It seems you are unable to do that. How can you POSSIBLY say that it's only 3% foreign money when you have nothing that supports that? Because you're retarded, thats why.
Jordan Miller
an oldfag Sup Forumsack appears
top tier post lad
Jordan Adams
They did hike once to about 0.25% back in December (which was widely see as a blunder after the fact).
nytimes.com
I think a rate hike is probably in the cards this summer, but I still don't understand the value of it. Growth is still abysmal and inflation is still pretty anemic.
Carson Williams
Yeah, Saddam and Gaddafi both tried a gold-for-oil trade system. For some reason their attempts failed.
Jayden Ortiz
Very interesting, thanks!
Elijah Flores
They were small fish, the problem will be when either A. A strong nation pulls it off, or B. a bunch of nations all dump the dollar at the same time, we cant bomb everyone at the same time.
Austin Rodriguez
>inflation is pretty anemic
It's really not, once you exclude energy (i.e. core PCE)
Lucas Baker
Will the crash be soon enough to escape running up my credit cards?
Zachary Cox
While I agree about liquidity, I'm suggesting that the liquidity is entirely dependent on faith in the dollar. If the current trend is to sell more oil in Euros, it will eventually become less profitable to hold dollars. Speculation will inevitably cause selloffs if there's instability in the dollar.
I'm not suggesting it will happen, merely seeing a trend that could cause some real problems if it continues. If BRICS and OPEC decide on euro or yuan, it's ogre for the stable dollar.
Brandon Thompson
>makes claim that chinese are buying vancouver and sources shit on a napkin
>i show him it's actually shit on a napkin
"hurr durr you need to prove it's NOT the chinese buying!"
Brody Gray
Outside of the US(largest oil producer), Saudi Arabia is the only one that would have a material impact on petrodollars. Russia may switch to the ruble, but China and Canada won't.
In any case, even if the petrodollar were to be totally replaced, it would only have a moderate impact and wouldn't tangibly affect USD's reserve status.
Anthony Ramirez
No
Mason Torres
They won't fucking do it m8
5 seconds in google reminds us how they've been talking about getting srs for literal years and fuck all has happened
reuters.com
Its at the very least not happening until after the election, the question becomes thereafter when it happens and how its framed after
neo/pol/ a shit
rarely find actual threads anymore, mostly teenagers other and underage bands memeing WOW MAKES U THINK WHAT DID HE MEAN BY THIS PRAISE KEK HOW CAN THEY EVEN COMPETE
Brody Roberts
UK and EU urged to act on Chinese steel dumping after US raises duty on imports
Unions say Britain and EU must ‘stop treading on egg shells’ and follow lead of US which has raised tariffs to 522%
Britain’s steel trade body and unions have called on the UK and the EU to take urgent action to stop Chinese steel dumping, after the US government increased tariffs to more than 500%.
In an escalation of the trade spat, the US has raised its tariffs on imports of cold rolled steel from China to 522% from 266%, citing a refusal to cooperate with anti-dumping investigations. By comparison, the EU has imposed provisional tariffs on China of 16% for cold rolled steel, which is used to manufacture cars and appliances and in construction.
The UK is one of 14 countries that have been blocking EU plans to impose tougher sanctions on cheap Chinese steel imports. Sajid Javid, the business secretary, has said it would not be right for the EU to scrap regulations known as the “lesser duty rule”, which some countries want to end in order to allow higher tariffs on Chinese steel.
Gareth Stace, director of UK Steel, welcomed the US move. He said: “The United States has quickly identified the problem with China dumping steel and imposed effective and robust trade barriers. The EU has been slower and the result is we’re still haggling over tariffs and action to prevent unfairly traded Chinese steel. Britain and the EU need to stop treading on egg shells and take decisive action following America’s impressive lead.”
A spokesman for the Community trade union said that unfairly traded Chinese steel was still hurting UK and European steel producers.
Justin Ortiz
But its the current year...