'One In Billions' Chance We're Not Living In A Computer Simulation

>'One In Billions' Chance We're Not Living In A Computer Simulation

What did he mean by this?

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When he said that he ment " One on billions chance we're not living in a computer simulation"
youtube.com/watch?v=3jVc8coAUhc

If we all have 1 in a billion chance then together we have 7 out of one chances to not live in a simulation.

He meant that he can spout as much bullshit as he wants and people will eat it up because hurr durr Elon Musk

Too many drugs taken while overthinking a thought exercise.

Just contemplate the misery of your own personal life - what sort of creator would waste processing power to simulate your fucking life?

Lol how would this idiot know?

It's like saying, "high likelihood half of the population are actually aliens disguised as humans". I mean, maybe? It's unknowable, but any sensible person doesn't believe it.

He meant that his hair transplants worked out really well

>White people ran a what-if simulation to answer the greatest question of their time: what if Hitler had lost WWII?

you dont understand how 1 in a billion works, do you?

One that wants to know ALL the variables

We have a one in two chance we're not living in a simulation.

I came to the conclusion that it is possible we are a computer simulation years ago.

Think about it. There are so many scientific questions that remain unanswered, like why gravity exists and what happened before the big bang.

>what sort of creator would waste processing power to simulate your fucking life?

OP BTFO

Those questions are unanswered because our approach to them is predicated on human logic which the universe has shown to not work on. See the Uncertainty principle, double slit experiment, and almost anything in quantum mechanics.

exactly, this idea that aliens are slowly replacing the population of earth with fakes is ridiculous

"This paper argues that at least one of the following propositions is true: (1) the human species is very likely to go extinct before reaching a “posthuman” stage; (2) any posthuman civilization is extremely unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of their evolutionary history (or variations thereof); (3) we are almost certainly living in a computer simulation. It follows that the belief that there is a significant chance that we will one day become posthumans who run ancestor-simulations is false, unless we are currently living in a simulation. A number of other consequences of this result are also discussed."

simulation-argument.com/simulation.html


If humanity reaches post human super intelligence and run ancestor simulations they would probably do it more than once. Probably million or billions of times.

So assuming that there would be billions of simulations and only one real one, it is most likely that we are not the real one.

And looking at the current world and where computer games and virtual reality is moving it seems very likely that we will reach the point where we are capable or running ancestor simulations.

Why would anyone simulate the universe? What purpose would it serve?

What kind of computer would be required to run a simulation like the known universe? The entire concept seems insane to me, yet it is supported by very intelligent physicists.

You're thinking too small and Elon Musk is just exposing the tip of the ice berg.

Consciousness is an emergent property and thus cannot be simulated; therefore we aren't living in such a programme.

So they can shitpost on message boards about how their universe is better than everyone else's universe.

> there are people who actually believe he's intelligent because he's convinced the government to give his companies billions of dollars in free subsidies and the drawings to old nasa technology
> many of them are ITT

when science pioneers get old they go insane
see: stephen hawkings

By all means, it doesn't even have to be the universe. What evidence is there that anyone except you is a sentient being? What if YOU are the only AI in the simulation and everything else does not truly exist?

There is absolutely no requirement for them to simulate the entire universe.

Is Elon Musk as based as Peter Thiel?

why would they not if they could? Imagine we had the technology right now to simulate human history and watch it all, 100% some billioaires would put the mone together to amke it happen. As I said above, we are slowly moving in that direction with computer games already.

here is a great interview with the guy who came up with the philosophocal concept. It's great because it's very easy to grasp for normies.

youtube.com/watch?v=nnl6nY8YKHs

>emergent
>not coming out of numbers
>not thinking of labels as programs

A computer with power that we can't comprehend currently.

I'm sure 100-200 years down the line we could feasibly simulate a small universe with technology. We're only 15-20 years away from reaching technological singularity.

You sound like a lunatic right now

How did Elon get his hair back?

Cogito ergo sum. If we're going to go focus on pondering the nature of reality, might as well start from the base up.

we always sound like lunatics in these threads
we're not replacing scientists here. Anyway, you don't think most scientists and mathematicians have pet theories?

>what sort of creator would waste processing power to simulate your fucking life?

That's not how a simulation works. The creator sets the stage and then lets the simulation run its course. Whatever amazing, beautiful, ugly or pathetic shit happens within the simulation is not directly influenced by the creator. It's basically the science version of believing in an omnipotent abrahamic god who set the stage, gave us free will and then fucked off and observes without intervening.

>tfw god is actually a fat alien NEET who live's in his mom's basement. our entire existence is just a program on his computer.

>There is absolutely no requirement for them to simulate the entire universe.

but now you're just describing the "brain in the vat" argument

>free will

Ever played The Sims? For fun, obviously.

Posthuman super intelligence could turn an entire planet into a computer.

Once we reach the point of mashines with human intelligence, these mashines will then invent even smarter mashines and then these mashines will invent even smarter mashines etc.

There would be a technological revolution every five minutes. We would make the technological progress of 10 years in 10 minutes.

It's hard to say how exactly it would work, as we lack the intelligence to imagine all the stuff these super mashines could invent etc.

>yfw his single alien mum bought him a backdoor to our universe's logical consistency so he would leave her alone

It's pretty silly I agree, we would never do something like that.

>he's not a child he's 34

>Once we reach the point of mashines with human intelligence, these mashines will then invent even smarter mashines and then these mashines will invent even smarter mashines etc.

Why? Why wouldn't the advances get more distant the more advanced we become?

Not really. The brain in the vat requires a brain, whilst I'm implying that humans would be AIs.

any device which performs calculations is a computer. ergo, the universe itself is a computer. it's all just chugging along proceeding in an orderly fashion from some initial set of conditions, similar to old-fashioned analog computers.

it's not so much that you're living in a simulation, you ARE the simulation. and to top it off, it denies you even have free will. everything around you is a physics problem, sorting itself out in an orderly way.

basically, he thinks we're all clockwork oranges.

10/10

This is a very old and outdated study that was done with technology that was highly inaccurate in measuring brain waves.

Because we can create AIs superior to humans, which then would create AIs superior to them, which in turn would continue the cycle until we've got a dyson sphere of quantum computing around our sun.

>free will

that we're not living in a simulation
subtly telling the guy who asked that he's retarded

Technological singularity. At some point, machines will be able to learn themselves. The more they learn, the smarter and more able to learn they become.

It's an exponential cycle.

Thanks Big Papa Pump

>which then would create AIs superior to them,

Why would this be a rapid process, and not something that takes 10,000 years?

>implying the programmer doesn't have hooks to modify simulation parameters on the fly

Yeah ok kiddo. Everyone knows a open world game this big would have tons of coding bugs.

Is that Elon Musk?

Did he get a hair transplant or something?

There's nothing to assume its exponential though

that only proves a time delay, and says nothing significant either way.

What he said isn't profound.

It's simple, if it is possible to simulate a universe like the one we live in it is almost certain we are already living in one. The reason is simply that presumably any civilisation that gains the technology to sim as universe will do so, for many reasons such as research or simple for fun.

The new universe being simulated may well have a civilisation that likewise develops such sims. Each civ will probably create many simulated universes, but even if every simulation only ever creates one then that is potentially a infinite loop of sims.

Which leaves you with the conclusion I started with: if it is possible to simulate a universe like ours then we are almost certainly in one. The numbers would be against us to presume ourselves to be the start of the chain.

It's not about individual life. think more on the Tron side of things. Beings have the power to create simulated universes which they themselves can exist in, the life that forms through evolution is it's own life, just part of the machine but no less alive.

So why are you always so angry at minorities, homosexuals, feminists and SJWs when they have absolutely no influence over what they are doing?

Free will is still a myth. Each and every one of our decisions is based on a combination of our genes and past experiences. Any act you perform is based on these qualities that you cannot change and even if you were to attempt, it would be because of aforementioned qualities. We are beings, completely and utterly controlled by our nature.

Why would it be slow? The AI is vastly more intelligent than any human being has ever been, or even could be. It can replicate itself or build more efficient AIs easily with the usage of 3d printing and AIs bringing it material.

So instead of us reaching singularity, we are singularity?

But in the end, he is only referring to the tip of the iceberg, which is just convenient anthropomorphic thinking. Many identical universes can be contained within non-identical simulators. There are infinite pathways in the structure of the numbers.

>man from 900BC says there is a great chance that we are living on the back of a giant turtle
>man from 100AD says there is a great chance we are trapped in a cave watching projections against a wall
>man from 1500AD says there is a great chance the sky is painted on like a big mural
>man from 2016 says there is a great chance we live in a computer simulation

Why do you assume he has free will either?

He's saying what every occult philosophy and most religions have said throughout history, he's just stating it from the perspective of a staunch materialist.

Personally I believe God created the physical universe and then made thinking beings imbued with a little piece of himself to experience his creation in a way an omnipresent omnipotent being never could. At death we will be reabsorbed into God so he can absorb our life experience, wipe our slates clean, then send back out to the physical world as a new being.

Because A.I isn't limited by biological properties. It could always be finding the most efficient ways to improve itself and create more processing power. This is happening much faster than you and I could even think. We're talking nano seconds here bro. Light speed.

>Chance Elon Musk isn't a creepy twerp like the other Silicon Valley autists: 'One in Billions'.

Not even remotely

>Elon
>Has to back the right horse in a presidential election to get subsidizes for his two businesses, neither of which have ever turned a profit
>Is one of the only white SA that likes Mandela
>Has a massive stuttering problem
>Degenerate atheist, can't see cultural benefit of religion
>Is backing Hillary

>Thiel
>Trump delegate
>Friends with iron Ann
>Chess master
>Christian, sees cultural benefit of religion
>Doesn't think women and blacks should vote
>Against non-white immigration

The argument is thus: think how advanced we can make computer simulations today. Think how advanced we will be able to make computer simulations in 100, or 1000 years. Think how advanced an alien civilization that has existed for far longer could make one.

Now, do you think it is more likely we are in a simulation, or even a simulation inside a simulation... or that we just-so-happened to be at the very top, outside of a simulation in the real universe?

It is simply statistically more likely that we are in a simulation.

My brain's jelly now. That's deep as shit.

I just assume if you are actually convinced that no human being ever has made a conscious decision that was their own, you would stop getting mad at the decisions of human beings that you disapprove of, because you know that they have no influence over what they do.

reaching that hard.

who says it has to be a chain?

unless of course you believe that we are the only intelligent species in an entire univers.

“The first gulp from the glass of natural sciences will turn you into an atheist, but at the bottom of the glass God is waiting for you.”
― Werner Heisenberg

Imagine you have and IQ of 200 and the processing power of a computer. And then this Computer with an IQ of 200 would invent an even smarter computer etc. They would use the physics of our universe to the most effective maximum.

This is kind of backed up by the fact that research indicates that technological progress has been exponential so far.

Processing power ( and many other meassures) seem to double every 14 months.

This kind of exponential growth will start very slowly and then eventually go almost straight upwards (like a parabel).

It's like when you put one rice corn on the first piece of a chess board, two rice corns on the second, etc. At the last piece of the chess board you would have gazilllions of rice corns.

Mental Masturbation

Just look at technology now compared to how it was 50 years ago. Even look at how things were in the 90s.

The first computer, ENIAC, had a clock speed of 100 khz. Modern processors range from ~1ghz in speed to much higher, even over 5ghz, with multiple CPUs on most of them.

Take my CPU, at 3.7 ghz it's tens of thousands of times more powerful and millions of times smaller. If you take architecture into account, it's millions of times more powerful.

>tfw people with tourettes are literal shitposters of this simulation

the chances we are in a computer simulation is actually 100%
in the future theres bound to be someone who tries to replicate the universe through simulation therefore creates this exact timeline thus we couldnt know for sure if we are living in that one exact simulation

Therefore Schrodinger's cat.

THERE IS NO CONSPIRACY TO REPLACE HUMANS WITH ALIENS THIS IS SILLY

youtube.com/watch?v=HEVlfN060W4

I never said it had to be a chain. My post acknowledges that each sim could have many child sims, some made by other intelligent species in their sim. It would therefore more likely be a massive web.

But even if it was just a chain, the number of sims would still grow so high that statistically we would almost certainly already be living in a sim.

That's impossible hahahaha lol

Unfortunately Moore's Law is already slowing down and there's a hard limit on it anyways once you get to the atomic level.

this

I think of something similar but replace god with a mathematical structure and there are many caveats to what you say that I would disagree about the nature of your god.

omniscient and omnipotent statements create paradoxes in our reality

>the brain making a choice means your brain doesn't make choices

WEW

Wouldn't that be a conscious decision tho?

White males are fucking disgusting holy shit

This is objectively true.

We are a complex system of cause-and-effects.

He found out the cheat codes

The guy has been doing too much nitrous... but what he means is that within all the baseline (organic) universes there are perhaps thousands or millions of species who advanced to creating AI. Those AI then advanced to create simulated universes as a matter of course - they did it because they could and that's where tech advances were leading.

So theoretically there are many more times (billions, i doubt it) simulated universes than baseline organic universes, if you accept the multi-universe model.

imo, it's 50/50 if we live in a simulated universe or a baseline one. Doesn't really matter either way.

Musk's ego is way out of control and now all his followers are holding their heads because their leader told them they're not real.

We wuz dwarf fort n sheit

There is a way to test if we live in a simulation: irrational numbers. There are an uncountably infinite number of them, and each of them has an infinite amount of digits as we continue to divide and calculate them. But no computer can store an infinite amount of information... therefore, the digits of irrational numbers must end eventually. If we dedicate an enormous amount of time to it, we could focus on taking any given irrational number (say pi)... one day we might end up with something like:

2840983997 4140672353 4319030217 7521257272 1740258075 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000

Signalling that the number may have "ended". Of course this could just be an immense coincidence, since an infinitely long series of numbers should technically contain any given string of numbers eventually, but we can also test other irrational numbers to see if they perhaps end after the same length as pi seemed to.

what do you mean by complex system?

They're scrambling to implement new shit to find since our particle accelerators are getting so damn big.

>I just assume if you are actually convinced that no human being ever has made a conscious decision that was their own
Sure they are conscious decisions, but their conscious and unconscious mind is quite literally defined by their environment, genetics and experiences. As no human being is capable of acting outside of their own mind, every single thing a man, woman or child does in his life will be determined by the framework of his mind. With a powerful enough computer and an accurate model of a person's brain, you could predict every single one of his actions in any possible situation. That is, of course, if the uncertainty principle, or some other known factor does not affect the mind.

I do get mad at them, but if I stop to think about things logically for even an instant, I stop being mad. Not that I approve of their actions or anything.

Yes, but we shouldn't just sit on the couch and let Moorse Law take care anyway. Still got to work and invent.

Haha thanks m8.

That's one of the beliefs in western occultism.

There's no afterlife in my belief system either, after the primordial God creature has taken in every possible experience and lesson from us we will be absorbed back into his being completely destroying our individuality and consciousness. He will then eat the universe like a worm eating an apple.

Quantum computing? A.I could work that out faster than we could.