Why won't China's economy crash?!?
China will crash any day now!
Juan Hernandez
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mobile.nytimes.com
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Aiden Long
Well?
Michael Powell
You're too impatient give it a few more years. Have you seen their debt?
Caleb Barnes
Less than yours
Lincoln Harris
Doesn't the UK have 400% of GDP in debt?
When will they collapse?
Jaxson Miller
Rank Country/Region External debt
US dollars Date Per capita
US dollars % of GDP
1 United States 18,152,809,942,589 31 December 2016[1] 56,000 97
2 United Kingdom 7,554,815,500,000 31 December 2016[2] 119,000 314
3 France 5,104,831,200,000 31 December 2016[3] 75,800 210
4 Germany 5,002,093,100,000 31 December 2016[4] 61,700 148
5 Netherlands 3,945,974,400,000 31 December 2016[5] 234,000 525
6 Luxembourg 3,932,580,200,000 31 December 2016[6] 6,733,000 6,731
7 Japan 3,645,534,000,000 31 December 2016[7] 26,400 74
8 Italy 2,265,430,500,000 31 December 2016[8] 37,900 126
9 Ireland 2,235,142,300,000 31 December 2016[9] 471,000 780
10 Spain 2,032,000,000,000 31 December 2016[10] 44,100 167
11 Canada 1,754,375,600,000 31 December 2016[11] 46,800 116
12 Switzerland 1,719,445,000,000 31 December 2016[12] 204,000 265
13 Australia 1,603,542,800,000 31 December 2016[13] 59,000 126
14 China 1,420,657,200,000
Mason Gonzalez
Commie chink government has a On switch. But they are still in trouble. Mainly because of the On switch.
USA doesn't have a commie government On switch but they are still not in trouble.
Jace Nguyen
>Less than yours
Except the US is good for the money with $5-7 Trillion being received in taxes.
China's political party keeps its records secret hence why only 3rd parties report their success.
Anthony Thompson
AKA
China has very little debt owed to foreigners. That means that China (or any nation) can print yuan (remember Quantitative Easing) to repay any debt.
That's why SOVEREIGN debt is different from foreign debt.
Oliver Hernandez
The thing with China is that they're still just copying the blueprint towards modernization that the western world has already laid out. Japan and SK also experienced similarly fast paces towards 1st world status after WW2, but then hit a wall as soon as they reached the point where they cant just copy the west anymore.
The same thing will eventually happen to China except worse because they also have some glaring demographic problems like having billions of people.
Luis Sanders
This is a repeat situation from before ww1 and before ww2.
In 1918 - The British and German GDP was the same
In 1938 - The German GDP was TWICE that of Britain
WAR WAR WAR WAR WAR
The same will happen when Chinas GDP is TWICE that of the US (or possibly twice that of the combined western world).
Wait and see.
Samuel Reed
>USA doesn't have a commie government On switch but they are still not in trouble.
What the fuck does that mean?
[Citation needed]
Commies loves stats. Dubious or not
Thomas Lewis
Japan's situation is both unique and not comparable.
China's GDP per capita is $8000.
Japan 1995 had $35,000 per capita GDP.
South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong are all growing 2-3% while Japan is stagnant.
There's no reason what happened to only one nation 30 years ago should happen to all the rest.
Jackson Gomez
ftalphaville.ft.com
>These biased interpretations — and there are many others — reflect the fact that Thucydides wrote his history to refute the conventional wisdom about the war in the aftermath of the Athenian defeat. He was the first revisionist historian, determined to acquit Pericles and his fellow elites for starting and losing the war. To do this, he blamed impersonal historical forces and the ignorant rabble.
>(Ironically, Thucydides’s account, which doesn’t explicitly describe this mainstream narrative, is the one that survived over the past 2400 years, which means that the arguments he was rebutting have only become clear relatively recently thanks to the work of imaginative modern scholars.)
>Studying history is valuable. Reading Thucydides is valuable. But people who think they’ve gained ancient wisdom after reading only the most popular bits of Thucydides’s history of the Peloponnesian War should be approached with extreme scepticism.
Alexander Wright
USA GDP was the same as the UK in 1850 and was double the UK in 1880.
Then triple in 1910.
And quadruple in 1940.
WAR WAR WAR... ?
Hunter Flores
Any day now!
Daniel Roberts
...
James Campbell
>[Citation needed]
There is no citation.
Chinese government hasn't released what their tax intake in since 1997. Of course they announce when taxes are being raised or lower, but again reported by third parties.
Connor Russell
>stop devaluing the yuan!
William Edwards
Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore are all incredibly open and westernized microstates while South Korea still hasn't even caught up Japan yet.
China is even more closed off to the west than Japan became shortly after reaching their peak, and has magnitudes worse of a population problem.
Luis Sanchez
Leo Butler
Except everyone has nukes this time and globalisation means all economies are intertwined so they can't do shit.
Ayden Stewart
>third parties
Show me the Chinese government website that enlists their entire government budget, tax intake and tax laws.
Connor Clark
no one is going to use a nuke if china decides to take over taiwan tho
Joseph Brooks
People are saying that China's economy will crash since always and it never happens
Easton Bailey
>You're too impatient give it a few more years. Have you seen their debt?
Kek, you are just like commies in my country who shit on USA for some reason.
Brody Phillips
1. South Korea and Japan have a very similar GDP per capita this year.
2. Japan has had sub-replacement fertility since 1973. China has only since 1994.
3. Japan's fertility rate has been 1.4 average since 1980. China's has been 1.6 average since 1994.
4. China's population will expand until at least 2040. Japan's has shrunk every year since 2010.
In 30 years China will be very similar to where Japan was in 2010. Not "worse".
Samuel Mitchell
>Luxembourg
Kevin Campbell
>cn.gov
>state council of china
>xinhua
>4.5% growth in government revenue (taxes)
Lincoln Collins
China's situation is in fact far more similar to Japan than any of those other countries.
Japan was literally the "China" of the 80s and quickly becoming an economic powerhouse on the world stage that everyone was a bit scared of, but then stagnated in the mid 90s.
Kevin Ramirez
The problem with "Total Debt" calculations is that they ignore the fact this debt is backed up by assets.
Every dollar of debt for one party is a dollar of an asset for the other party.
Russia and Nigeria have 0 debt. Why? Because only shitholes with shitty finances can't issue debt.
Gabriel Bailey
>China’s fiscal revenue grew 4.5 percent year on year in 2016, to 15.96 trillion yuan (around $2.33 trillion), the Ministry of Finance said on Jan 23.
>usgovernmentrevenue.com
>over 6 Trillion
Glad China could fit in their moon landing on such a small budget.
Mason Robinson
Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.
1. China is Japan 1975 at best.
2. Half of Chinese are still rural peasants. 95% of Japanese in 1995 were urban.
3. Most of China is a shithole. Most of Japan in 1995 was not. That means China can develop more. Ever heard of "low-hanging fruits"?
You are comparing Apples and Oranges just because you buy the "what goes up must come down" meme.
Benjamin Evans
If China is so great, why are you in the US, chink?
Parker Clark
Should we be worried about China, lads?
Jayden Hall
China is much more decentralized than the USA, unironically.
60% of tax revenue goes to the provincial government. Many Chinese businesses and people love the Central government and hate the provinces because of that
William Wood
I am Greek
No. Fear India. China is a weak and powerless place. Like a puppy with a bark
Aiden Wright
No but really, I am a hafu.
You might know me from other China threads or /sino/.
Carter White
Not really they don't seem hellbent on fucking other countries like the US do
Daniel Stewart
>China is much more decentralized than the USA, unironically.
No, its not. Thanks for you interest in Amerika though.
Parker Cox
Is your cunt doing better or worse?
Dominic Parker
I fear the day when India develops pooclear weapons
Xavier Jenkins
USA vs Britain is (was) not the same as Britain vs Germany
Joshua Wright
>like the US do
>chile
>yes
hurr durr
XDDD
Evan Smith
misleading. It's hard to move up when you are already at the top
Benjamin Gray
No I'm not joking
60-65% of Chinese taxes go to the provinces. That's why China does not have universal central government social security. The provinces handle it.
Cameron Allen
And neither is Germany UK similar to China USA.
They purposefully left out the top 10-20 GDP per capitas. Not misleading at all.
Isaiah Roberts
>60-65% of Chinese taxes go to the provinces.
Cool!
Is that where all the aborted female fetuses and smog went?
Dylan Myers
Pukes?
Sebastian Kelly
...
Asher Long
Are you implying that it's a good thing that there is an extreme disconnect in the country between the urban population and the much larger and poorer rural population in China?
You think that China is gonna be able to pull up billions of people from poverty and sustain them? Lmao, that's not an advantage, it's a nuclear bomb waiting to happen. EVERY 1st world country has experienced a population slowdown not because it's a bad thing, but because we live in a resource limited world.
The US is a superpower not because it just has a high population, but because it has the highest population of people with a high standard of living. 2 rich people in a country with 30 poor people is not a strong country in this day and age.
Levi Carter
Kind of
The provincial governments are the ones who put GDP > Everything else
google.com
That is changing rapidly though
Jeremiah Parker
>GDP per capita less than Mexico
You guys are giving chink economy way too much undeserved respect
Adam Fisher
Why does every city of mexico look like such a shithole, then?
None of them can even compare with any Chinese Tier 2 city in terms of urban management, planning and services.
Nathan Allen
There is not an extreme disconnect though.
Rural wages in China have risen faster than Urban wages for a decade now. The median Chinese wage is $800 a month now, average is $1200. That's a lot better than even a decade ago in 2007 when the median was $200.
Jason Bailey
>That is changing rapidly though
So glad for googles assistance.
Jaxon Bailey
>Importantly, this rise has translated into tangible benefits. The Chinese live six years longer on average and have full access to electricity, less than two percent of the population live under the global poverty line and the average calorie deficit has been cut by more than half, according to World Bank data going back to 1992.
>Over the next five years, China's per-person economic growth will see it bypassing the likes of Mexico and oil-rich Azerbaijan, putting it just shy of Argentina.
Jose Harris
because it has mexicans
Dylan Sanchez
I am always one step ahead of you.
>We find that China's male-female ratio is actually within global average of 105:100.
Owen Jackson
>I am always one step ahead of you.
>Posting more 3rd party rants about 1990
Welcome to 2017. In 2017 Chinas entire economy is dependent on selling Western products (at any means). Its faker than Soviet Union and less transparent.
You've clearly been misinformed, because there isn't much official information available.
zmescience.com
Hudson Wilson
China doesnt have any way to crash, they build more and produce more thats it.
Austin Stewart
That's the fucking problem Chang. The path towards a first world economy is a service based economy. Those people in China working in factories aren't gonna eternally see their wages go up. Those jobs came from the west because those countries reached the point where outsourced labor to China became much cheaper than in their own countries. At some point they have to switch to a high level service job because automation is getting better and better.
Christian Phillips
>Except the US is good for the money with $5-7 Trillion being received in taxes.
Your debt is literally higher than your GDP.
Oliver Ramirez
>1990
This was released in 2017 and references 1990, 2000, and 2010 census data you absolute mong.
Michael Campbell
>muh low quality goods
mobile.nytimes.com
>HONG KONG — After years of predictions that cars sold in the West would bear the “Made in China” label, the time has finally come.
>Ford Motor’s plans to build its popular Focus compact cars in China, rather than Michigan or Mexico, is a milestone in China’s automotive rise. Chinese auto industry leaders praised the move as long-awaited confirmation that the country’s factories have become as efficient and high-quality as those in the United States and Europe.
John Morris
>Why does every city of mexico look like such a shithole, then?
what? except financial center of largest cities, which have recent skyscrapers, all china is a truly shithole
Justin Thompson
>
China continues to grab more market share even as wages have risen 40,000% since 1990.
Eli Ward
>Your debt is literally higher than your GDP.
Debts aren't paid by GDP, are you even old enough to post?
>This was released in 2017
Ok, you're wrong. It doesn't matter what year you're talking about. Thats why you're jumping throughout history.
Anyone who isn't a complete troll/idiot knows what happened.
cnbc.com
>FAILS
>Ford
>Literally American company
Car companies don't care if China infringes their patents, cars are 100+ year old tech.
>samefagging this hard
Have you read the rules?
Ryan Reyes
Their largest cities have 400 million people in them.
Matter of fact, some of the largest are worse than smaller cities.
Evan Brown
Are you trying to sell this as a good thing? If labor is too expensive all the manufacturing jobs will leave to a cheaper country. China - Manufacturing = collapse
Lincoln Richardson
They will eventually have so much production that they will be richer than western countries do ling as they do not adopt western economic system, if they adopt inferior western system they will crash.
Cameron Anderson
They're already switching from an industrial to a service economy. There are many many articles about it.
google.com
Jacob Perez
>you're wrong
That's not an argument
>two child policy
How is this at all relevant?
>samefagging
Kill yourself nigger. Pic related
Nicholas Taylor
Dude, you are hilariously stupid.
I'm done arguing with you anymore.
ECON 101
Wages = productivity
China wages are up because productivity is up. That means they produce just as much profit as before.
Hence, market share rising with wages
Joshua Hall
@76676254
>How is this at all relevant?
>cnbc.com
>being this stupid
Wow i forgot it was Friday night.
Luis Diaz
The US can afford to rack up extreme debt because they have more leverage than any other country in the world. Their currency is the world currency, they have the largest military, and it houses the headquarters of a plurality multinational corporations in the world. Everyone trusts them to stay afloat because not trusting them is basically like saying you don't trust the global economy.
China's economy collapsing would hurt the entire world for a while, but their cheap manufacturing could eventually replaced with other countries if need be.
If the US economy collapsed, everything everywhere in every part of the world goes to shit for who knows how long. They're the largest consumer, the leader in tech, and basically the world police. It would cause mass chaos and probably lead to a world war to fill the power vacuum.
Aaron Nguyen
>China builds more factories
>China produces more
>China buikds more roads
>builds more stores
>builds more farms
>builds more houses
Wheres the possible "collapse" so long ad they dont make themselves subservient to international finance they can expand and expand and be #1 in world as they used to be.
Kayden Torres
>discussing male female ratio
>birth rates is somehow relevant
Total births has nothing to do with the sex ratio.
Brayden Taylor
USA collapses, this somehow affects icelands factories, workers, wages, services, schools and peoppe building roads.
Leo Russell
China imports almost as much as the USA.
If we lost China, we'd lose 20% of the world economy.
You are seriously retarded.
Christopher Cruz
>hurr china's debt is too large
>say it's literally lower than the US's in relation to their GDP
>but that's not relevant are you underage
????? How do you think the interest gets payed, with magic?
Now this guy has a bloody point., but I still think you're underestimating China's role worldwide, it's the second largest GDP in the world and the main trading partner of many countries in the world too, a Chinese economical collapse would have great impacts on the world.
Zachary Cox
ITT: chinks with their heads in the sand. Central planned economy does not work, it's been proven time and time again.
Jonathan Adams
Only one with their head in the sand is you Pablo. Clearly central planning is working quite well considering it brought them from nothing to the worlds second largest economy.
Landon Morris
You are so fucking thick. China has a GDP per capita of 7000. Japan has a GDP per capita of 32,000. The US has a GDP per capita of 55,000.
The country is still nowhere fucking near the point where they'll start experiencing inevitable problems with their growth. The country is still entirely fueled by manufacturing which has long since left developed countries like the US and Japan. Reach even half of the GDP per capita that Japan has and we'll see how if it the economy still grows by an insane rate every year.
Grayson Ward
China's economy is only centrally planned in the broadest sense, with macro-economic plans being made in the government.
They arent Soviet-styled in which the Politburo decides on how many shoes they will make in the next five years.
China's system is called "Asian Developmental State Model" - as pioneered by Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan etc.
Oliver Hill
>thread full of armchair economists who are hoping that their random clueless guess as to how the future will unfold happens to be the right one
Dylan Taylor
?
You are rambling all over the place
Andrew Green
I posted sources hereto here
Blake Robinson
Too bad it's not Japan.
I want to see those self-centered fucked go down.
Ethan Nguyen
This
All East asian economies are part planned
Andrew Gray
And Japanese economic growth hit a fucking wall in the 90s, just like the USSR did after upgrading from feudalism.
Planned economies work so far as having an already established blueprint of how to evolve your economy. Once you catch up to the rest of the world though, they have never ever fucking worked.
Jordan Rodriguez
You seem like you have no idea what you're talking about.
Charles Scott
None of which allows anybody to make more than a mere educated guess as to how the future will unfold.
Jordan Cox
It's simple. China will ultimately experience massive economic problems once they get close to a 1st world economy. They just haven't gotten to that point yet.
Gabriel Davis
Explain why I'm wrong.
Hunter Edwards
Japan already got fucked and is now getting LDP'd again
Lincoln Rodriguez
Japan grew about 2.2% on average in the 90's, 1.5% in the 2000's, and 2% since 2012
They actually are similar to the USA growth rates
Caleb Hughes
>Why won't China's economy crash?!?
Because it crashes every day
Charles Bennett
>development theory and literally 200 years of data don't help us predict the near future (next five years)
Go argue with the World Bank, IMF, Fed, and BoJ. Oh, and every investor on Earth.
Luis Hill
>>>/ilbe/
Enjoying moon?