This is your friendly Tuganalyst (a.k.a. t. Analyst Barbosa) with a new set of charts to highlight how the biased media tries to manipulate you into losing hope and abandoning Trump using nothing but objective data but curated to imply a much worse picture than it is.
In the picture is the up to date RCP chart (posted ad nauseum by the Fake Fin btw), current up until June 14, 2016. [1]
If you base your analysis on this single chart the picture seems dire, it gives the impression that Trump support took a hard dive from June 1 forward.
In reality the change was minimal (as the next charts will show) and the following flaws in the chart were used to give this false impression:
1. The Y Axis chart doesn't cover the full range of the data. Considering this is a percentage goes from 0% to 100% putting the Y Axis in the 34-54% (a fifth of the actual range) magnifies every little change in the polls by 5x, giving the false impression that any change is much bigger than it really is.
2. The absence of the margin of error. Usually when the data is subject to error the margin of error is displayed in the charts either with error bars or wi9th a shadow around the main line indicating the highest and lowest possible value taking in account the erro margin. In both cases in the RCP chart the error margin is absent. A sane explanation of margin of error can be found in an article [2] published on October 14, 2015, one that explains how the polls favouring Trump at the time didn't necessary meant he would be the republican nominee (because of the margin of error).
Next I'll be showing the same RCP data, only presented without distortion caused by #1 above and in a further post, the same data with the error margins factored in.
This The reason we're not seeing her plummet is because she will never stand in front of a camera without months of preperation. then she'll spout of her talking points and the media gobbles it up like they've been told to and do all the work attacking Trump for her
Daniel Lee
>first post isn't awoo >thread will be filled with shills >"I used to support trump, but.. I am now a #Dildo4Hillary"
Also Trump tweeted it. The madman.
William Roberts
>biased media tries to manipulate you into losing hope and abandoning Trump using nothing but objective data but curated to imply a much worse picture than it is.
so is he pro gun control or not?
we need to hear it from him, speaking and tweeting, with time stamps
Caleb Hall
Is he not complicit? He stated the reasons why he did it, which implies he had some insight and did not report it.
Logan Barnes
i would be concerned that hillary has only really gone down. if i were a hillary fan trump has been going up and down and up and down
Thomas Campbell
>Check twitter >The madman actually tweeted that Obama is a traitor WEW
Seems like they're waiting as long as possible because they know Trump will be up after the attack and his rousing speech. Petulant President Obama gave him a boost too, if the most hated President in US history since Johnson is angry at someone, he must be doing something right.
Liam Roberts
>he fell for the crying Wojak leddit-tier epic meme
Noah Smith
>People are already going full retarded on that tweet
When he is publicly endorsing the idea then we can talk, right now he's just mentioning discussing it with gun experts
Jackson Diaz
>It's wrong to want a fair debate
Jeremiah Lee
Now, as you can see in the chart in the OP both the "slump" on Trump's numbers and the differences between he and Hillary are much smaller when the chart is presented with the full range.
The range compression made by most pollster is not accidental but not necessarily biased against any candidate. It is a product of the necessity to keep the audience "on the tip of their seats" all the time, always eager for the next data point as if it was the one who would finally decide the election.
It is equivalent, if I may compare, with the inflamatory title of the news articles (clickbait).
Also in this chart there is the trendline of both candidates, calculated automatically based on the excel Linear Trendline. It clearly displays a small but constant rise for Trump and a constant decline of Hillary numbers, much steeper than Trump's rise.
Next the chart comparing the percentages of both candidates with the error margin factored in.
The chart in this post is the year to date chart, also showing that the changes are not very big even considering the whole 2016 dataset.
Carson Morris
There is a lot of psyop shilling and dividing going on in Trump threads right now. Stay strong and vigilant lads. Don't let Crooked H's Correct the Record break your barrier. Resist the shill with all your might.
>Trump's support is in freefall >"But Trump is doing slightly better today than he was over a year ago! This means he's going to be ahead in the polls any day now!"
you guys really prove why Trump loves the poorly educated so much
Brayden Phillips
>I am now a #Dildo4Hillary"
lol
Isaiah Howard
P.S. to put in context and preempt the accusation that the general trend doesn't factor the recent loss of momentum here is the same chart as the second one, but contemplating only the worst recent period for Trump: June 1 to June 14, mostly polls taken in before Orlando and right in the middle of the "Mexican Judge" controversy.
Whenm factored in context of the full range it is visible that the decrease in the poll numbers is much softer than the one the original RCP chart try to give the impression.
Again, don't let them intimidate you. Don't let them lie with numbers and be prepared because with the approach of the General election every single trick in the book will be attempted.
Luis Taylor
Milo just got banned on Twitter.
Alexander Smith
>When he is publicly endorsing the idea then we can talk,
he just said something that threatens losing the core of his support, he got some splainin to do
>Late Show host Stephen Colbert shocked TV audiences with a comic sketch about Donald Trump's reaction to the Orlando nightclub massacre which ended with him drawing a swastika on a chalkboard.
>Colbert was reacting to a speech Trump made on Monday in which he blasted President Obama's reaction to the incident at The Pulse gay club in Florida in which Omar Mateen gunned down 49 people before being killed in a shootout with police.
>Trump had said: 'We’re led by a man that either is not tough, not smart
Charles Gonzalez
THE WORST ABUSERS OF WOMEN
SHE GETS MONEY FROM THEM, FOLKS
Angel Jackson
I'm a little worried about this NRA meeting Trump is having. I can totally see the "terror" and "no-fly" lists being greatly expanded to everyone on Sup Forums or anyone who has been to a Trump rally or fucking whoever the left is angry with at the time. There's no due process. You can't petition a court to be removed from the lists. Hell, you don't even know you're on the list. It's very shady.
Alexander Long
...
Ryan Lewis
You have zero room to discuss any form of education supporting sanders or hillary.
You might as well move to Canada/mexico where you belong.
Josiah Wilson
Are you joking? He was endorsed by the NRA pretty early in the race. He's always on about protecting and cherishing the 2nd amendment.
Hillary has never been able to reverse a negative trend in her entire political career.
Matthew Rodriguez
Well at least we know it was the club's fault for the shooting. What a brave man
Benjamin Gray
The way things have been going, the father could have posed for a photo outside the club that night with gun in hand alongside his son, and still look better then Trump in the public's eyes.
James King
Not the first time that's happened. God forbid you speak about deporting Muzzies.
Jayden Murphy
We're having a crisis of confidence at the moment.
Anthony Gray
HE FIRST GETS THE ENDORSEMENT OF DICK SUCKERS AND MENTALLY ILL PEOPLE FROM LGBT
NOW HE WANTS TO BAN GUNS
BILL KRISTOL AND BEN SHAPIRO WHERE FUCKING RIGHT
THIS DIRTBAG IS NOT A TRUE CONSERVATIVE SHOULW HAVE WENT WITH #TrusTED Cruz
Josiah Butler
>a history of shunning debates >skipped exactly one debate (and raised 5.6 million for veterans in the process)
Easton Richardson
Well 50 gays just died whats one shoa'd on twitter.
Carter Sanchez
So i'm guessing the "finnish" poster was doing the graveyard shift and now CTR came in to take over?
Aaron Wood
Why haven't you taken the cuck pill yet /Pol? It has so many benefits and no disadvantages! >1. Your wife will be happier. Black men are better at fucking and will be able to please her >2. You will no longer have to worry about sexually pleasing her... the blacks will do it for you! >3. You will be happier as well. Happy wife, happy life like they say! >4. Your children will have more genetic diversity. White race will be abolished in our lifetime if we all go cuck. No more racism! 5. The wound left in the psyche of our societies by centuries of colonialism will be healed once we welcome the black race with open legs
As a black Finn born to a white mother I feel it is our duty to ensure the downfall of white privilege by encouraging the races mixing to form one race... the human race. It's a beautiful thought isn't it?
Andrew Hughes
The whole point of Trump is that he's a populist who listens to his people so of course he'll listen to his large support base if they don't like the idea.
Aaron Bell
god forbid you speak out about anything
Charles Wood
>he fell for the meme that a career criminal could be President
Tyler Carter
The more shills here, the more we must be doing something right They must have spent quite a pretty penny now on this shit
Adrian Edwards
>There is a lot of psyop shilling and dividing going on in Trump threads right now.
there has been the whole time, Hillary isn't even a threat to Trump
Bentley King
Trump tweeting it was pretty big. However, people spamming it on Sup Forums isn't that big of a deal because most of us already knew this. It's normies who need to know this information.
Luke Carter
I love the Fox Theater
Daniel Green
I would say it's shocking but we all know which side the leftists are on.
Josiah Bell
Even Fox had that greasy fuck on the air.
I shut it off as soon as he came on. I don't need to listen to a piece of shit Taliban supporter's taqiyya about why Muslims are fluffy little bunny rabbits.
Samuel Mitchell
Holy shit. It's real. What triggered them?
Josiah Wilson
...
Jeremiah Robinson
>Trump putting his own supporters on a list for attending his own rallies
Bitch, please. Let's not pretend anything will come of it. >discussion takes place >15 minutes later >Yeah, sorry, everyone has to keep their guns. >fools just gave him more free publicity
David Powell
From the tone of the tweet its pretty obvious he's just getting their opinion, and the NRA's opinion is "keep your fucking hands off my gun. " The guy has been railing against gun control for months.
Aiden Powell
>tfw slided by shills
Jeremiah Morris
Good riddance, /polgbt/ is a disgusting meme and needs to be forgotten about.
Wyatt Jenkins
Here's what I don't get Shouldn't the father be in mourning that his son fucking died? Shouldn't he be asking that the media doesn't interrogate him while he comes to terms with the fact that his son is dead?
Easton Sanchez
This is a shill. Subversive, unfunny.
This is a troll. Kind of funny, not subversive.
Know your enemies.
Easton Williams
...
Charles Young
I'm not saying he shouldn't be accountable, but people ITT are acting like he's already sending the police knocking at doors for guns
Lincoln White
Well that's it, now I'm convinced you really put up a good argument there based on no facts or evidence. Guess I'll just have to vote for Shillary now #ImaHilldawg But lets not forget the fact that Hillary belongs in jail, instead lets just slide threads with faggot memes and shitposting
Connor Roberts
Fresh OC from last night
Anthony Flores
he needs to say something spectacular to follow this up, otherwise his support will evaporate, whats the difference between Hillary grabbing your guns or Trump grabbing your guns? nothing there is no difference
/thread
Charles Hall
I'm saying in the event of a future Democrat presidency it would be extremely tempting for King Nigger II or Hildabeast or whoever to put everyone that's ever supported a Republican on the no-gun list.
Ryder Bell
Nope. 2nd Amendment all the way. Peolle think he's looking into gun control because he's going to meet the NRA. >as if they will suggest / support gun control
Charles Peterson
What did he mean by this?
Levi Edwards
>tfw no trump gf
Jordan Gray
drumpf
Jaxson Stewart
...
Kayden Scott
Wew lad
Kevin Thomas
>implying that hasn't happened already.
Benjamin Gomez
An what would that have to do with Trump if he isn't in power? Are you having a giggle?
Asher Gutierrez
Do you know ANYTHING about the NRA? They've been opposed to the no fly list gun ban idea since Obama mentioned it, exactly for the reasons you listed. No due process, you don't even know you're on the list, you can't be removed from the list, etc.
No Fly list shouldn't exist in the first place, its unconstitutional to deprive people their right to travel with no due process. Trump is big on the Constitution, relax.
Matthew Rogers
>/thread
Hello Rebbit.
Joseph James
try harder shill
Joshua Price
>most hated >over 50% approval rating
Dylan Rivera
>Are you joking?
I only pray with all my heart that he was joking about what was said regarding excluding people on the no fly list from being able to buy firearms
SHALL
Parker Wood
Good fucking morning. It seems Trump is still down in the polls... Not to worry though! Once he debates Hillary (maybe even getting that DNC file from Russia (Praying)), he will surely rise and rise like in the Republican primaries! Stay confident, and don't fall for shills! MAGA!!!
Aaron Ramirez
What does this graph mean?
Eli Edwards
You know the 6 stages of terminal illness or something. Joe is at "acceptance"
Luke Flores
Twitter is total fucking dogshit.
It was bad enough when they were banning people like FinMin Taylor Swift and Tila Tequila, but Milo literally did nothing wrong.
Luis Russell
Holy shit it's true, he's gone from my following section
Julian Myers
>Trump acts like he is considering some gun control >everybody waits to see what he says >Trump comes out of the meeting and tweets 4 words
SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED
Oliver Walker
why doesnt plebbit get rid of mods for its news subs? and just have emoloyees run them?
Evan Morgan
>it's the LE WRONG SIDE OF HISTORY meme again
Joe is Joe.
Sebastian Reyes
>Trump gets close to Shillary >Somehow Shillary skyrocket then
Hmmmm....
Zachary Myers
Fucking cyber tyranny. Yeah it sure is great that one of the only gays speaking out against Islam gets censored.
Adrian Price
>look better then Trump in the public's eyes.
just because the media says people don't like Trump doesn't make it so, most of America likes Trump, he's a shoe in to win so long as he doesn't fuck it up
Henry Cruz
Didn't he get banned multiple times before? Probably triggered someone on twitter.
The faggot is annoying, but it's still funny how twitter started to heavily enforce its ban on free speech over the last few years. Even the slightest "offenses" tick them off.
Sebastian Phillips
We must pay reparations to niggers
Noah Davis
>gril sends you this pic >make jew joke on the same day >is germanic
Caleb Jones
All you got? Go prep a bull
Logan Bell
Well shit Milo. What the fuck did you do faggot?
Nathaniel Price
Ya. Trump is losing hard. Even with the racketeering scandal Hillary is under, Trump is still losing. Even with Putin's support and Russian hackers fucking with Hillary, Trump is still losing. That's the trend. Trump has been losing since the get go, and hasn't stopped losing.
Lucas Perez
Do you even read sources other than cuntbook posts?
Levi Hughes
>tfw life member of the NRA
Yeah, I know this. I read American Rifleman every month just like you do. However, let's not forget they've sold us up the river before. :/
