I posted this earlier today, but it didn't get many replies because it was earlier in the morning. I'll repost because I think it's important.
Let's discuss these polls for a moment. Shills need not apply.
One general election poll has Trump down by 5, and the other has him down by 12. One of these pollsters is dead wrong. But regardless, both show Trump losing.
Trump is definitely in a rough patch in his campaign, taking heat from the comments about the judge, Paul Ryan threatening to sue him, and the media just constantly attacking him. In the face of all of this, he's losing WITHIN THE MOE in Colorado, Florida, and North Carolina. His loss in Wisconsin is outside the MOE, but that's still a much closer result than I expected.
Take it another way: Romney lost Wisconsin by 6.94% and Trump OUTPERFORMS him even though Romney had native Paul Ryan on his ticket!
All of this even before both the convention AND the debates. So please stop all this shit about Trump going to lose in a landslide.
>polling average has 3 polls >includes a poll nearly two months old
Jeremiah Howard
Iowa is pretty well-educated; it'll be blue.
Ethan Martinez
The outlier of that result is months old. Irrelevant
Zachary Brown
Just more proof that national polls mean nothing. The president is not elected by a 50% national vote.
Caleb Murphy
No, but if he loses 15 votes in North Carolina that's a big problem because there really isn't anywhere else to make that up.
He's already walking a tight rope with needing about as clean a sweep as can be reasonably expected in the Midwest [i.e. no miracles in Illinois or Minnesota, but pretty much everywhere else]. Unless you think he's going to flip a big time state, I'm not seeing a lot of breathing room developing in New England or the Northwest in case it doesn't go swimmingly in the Midwest/South.
Whole fucking lot is riding on Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
Landon Kelly
muh corn
Jack Taylor
He won't win Michigan. Pic related is his absolute best unless something big happens in the future and he wins in a massive landslide.
Eli Torres
On that map. If Trump wins Ohio and Michigan they tie at 269. Who would congress pick?
Jack Bailey
HE WILL WIN MICHIGAN,WISCONSIN,MINNESOTA, AND MAINE!
Brandon King
Even with all the unions, Michigan is still around 75% White -- and it's home to the worst niggers in America outside of Cincinnati. He's got a shot.
Your map looks a bit optimistic in the West.
Andrew Wood
It's so unlikely that he wins Ohio and Michigan and not PA that it's almost not worth talking about. But to answer your question: I don't know. The GOP holds the house, but they hate Trump.
That's not my map. I'm just saying that's his max. I think MI is trending red, but now isn't the time unless Trump breaks 12% or so with the black vote.
Realistically, I say Trump wins NC, FL, OH, and PA with 273 electoral votes.
Colton Butler
I really wish Webb would be Trumps running mate to get the Virginia military vote. Hillary is ahead by 2 and is likely to make Kaine her running mate. I really hope the Trump team has a good plan to get to 270. If he doesn't think he can win Virginia, he should go all in in PA and Michigan. Even if Michigan is a long shot, he needs to make up the Virginia votes if he can't win them.
Aiden Johnson
Do you think the polls are overvaluing Clinton in Florida? I mean, Romney lost by less than one point to Obama, even with the unusually high black vote, and Romney doesn't have 1/4 the support Trump does in the state. I have a hard time believing he is down 8 points there.
Josiah Morales
I'm trying very hard not to pick apart polls this time because I did that in 2012 and I was very disappointed when I was dead wrong. It is sort of strange that he's down by 8 in Florida in one poll but tied with Clinton in PA in another. It sounds like a poll like that could be steeped towards Clinton, but it may also be the Hispanics rallying against Trump.
That being said, the poll that came out today had Trump down by 3, and that's within the margin of error. So I think that FL and NC are easy wins for him. The question is where does he expand Romney's map, and it seems to me like the Midwest is the best place.
Aaron Phillips
The thing that makes me nervous is Trump could win Florida,Ohio,Iowa,Colorado and still lose the election at only 268. If Clinton makes Kaine her running mate, that hurts Trump in Virginia. and it's being generous giving him Colorado and Iowa. Lets say that Trump wins Florida and Ohio, but not Colorado and Iowa, where is Trump going to make up the extra 17? PA is a long shot. Still leans dem.Same with Wisconsin.
Jeremiah Moore
Lets say Trump wins Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. He is at 259. Where does he make up the extra 10?
Adrian Kelly
Virginia isn't a red state at this point. It is full of people who need to be killed if the United States is to break free of globalist kike bankers.
Andrew Rogers
Look up 2000 VA results and compare them to 2004 results. Kerry choosing a Edwards, a good southern boy from the area, didn't win him a single vote. I don't think the working class of VA is that easily swayed.
Xavier Carter
Trump has already got the military vote
Daniel Long
I think PA is this year's wildcard. VA just seems to be getting bluer, especially with governor McDonnell getting caught with corruption charges and making everything worse. Wisconsinites seem to hate Trump, so I'm not expecting that to flip.
As of now, it seems to me like NC, FL, OH, PA is his best path to victory. If he can't win PA, his only other shot is pic related.
Ayden Bailey
I'm from Wisonsin and I don't believe this is going to happen.
I'm sorry my state is full of faggots and nigger-lovers.
Blake Peterson
Isn't there current governor under investigation?
Adam Myers
I think it's a close victory and Trump wins like this, but NH is a maybe
Jack Jackson
PA is much more likely to flip than IA. Which baffles me, because IA is suppose to be mostly farm country with rural whites. Are they too sheltered from the niggers and muslims to know the real problems?
Camden Nelson
nevada and ???
Luis Diaz
Why are you guys so sure about PA? They have tons of blacks and Puerto RIcans? Not to mention the Demo convention being held there, and the Dems had more primary votes.
Angel Edwards
The good thing about Nevada is that Trump got 35k votes in the Caucasus and Clinton only 6k The bad part is all the blacks and Spics in vegas, and all of the illegals from California.
Thomas Flores
He is, but I haven't read much into it. Maybe if he gets in trouble for it that can help Trump.
You left out the part where Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have been blue for decades.
Jacob Brooks
I don't think Pennsylvania is a sure thing but I think he has the best chance out of any recent Republican. The state polls showing them almost tied this far out is good for Trump.
Jace Hernandez
This is why I wish Kasich would be his running mate. Would help all across the rustbelt.
Liam Evans
>blue for decades. And? Virginia was red from 1968 to 2004 in every single election. Then Obama won it in 2008 and 2012, and now it seems to be reliably blue. States shift, and PA could potentially be a new shift.
Angel Perez
I think so. Just like how Scotland and Northern Ireland in the UK are super liberal yet very white.
The whitest states are Iowa, Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire.
Two of them are swing states and two are hard blue.
Grayson Thomas
>Iowa is pretty well-educated No its not, bro.
Samuel Scott
Laugh now Apologize later
Christopher Brooks
kill yourself
Angel James
Colorado would go red before Nevada.
Zachary Wright
The scary thing is, that Trump had the following states in his 15 state plan to win the whitehouse. NY,California,Minnesota,Maine,Michigan,Wisconsin,Florida,PA,Ohio,Virginia
I hope really doesn't believe he can win California or NY. In every interview he is talking about winning NY. That is delusional.
Ryan Morales
If North Ireland is liberal it'd be solely caused by the mass breeding catholics. theyre being infultrated by Catholic cucks, same way mexicans are liberalizing America.
Alexander Thomas
More like this.
Jackson Cooper
really REALLY hope he wins FL
Justin Bailey
Going to agree with this guyWhat's the explanation for that?
He'll never win NY and Cali, and MN, ME, MI, and WI are a stretch.
Nolan Foster
Yeah he's wasting his time in California and New York. He needs to focus on Florida and Pennsylvania instead, since he has a real chance of winning those states. Those are the 2 main tossup states that will win him the election.
Ayden Gonzalez
Hillary won, Drumpf is done. It's Romney all over again. Gonna eat me a steak with a side if right wing cuck tears after this election, AGAIN. Just give up.
Julian Myers
>The bad part is all the blacks and Spics in vegas Do you really expect them to turn out? >and all of the illegals from California. Who can't vote. Whoop-de-do.
Chase Thomas
No one is disagreeing that Trump has an uphill battle to with the electoral college.. But Romney doesn't even have 1/4 of the support that Trump does. Hillary is such a bad candidate that PA,MIchigan,Virginia, and to a lesser extent Wisconsin and Maine are all in play. If it we're any other Democrat, Trump wouldn't have a chance in those states. Hell. even Hillary isn't doing as well as she should in a state like Oregon. Only up 1-5 when she should be up by 20.
Jonathan Powell
Hahaha it's funny watching all the MAGA Sup Forumstards watch glorious leader's chances go down the fucking drain.
Going to feel good drinking conservative tears when Scalia and Thomas get replaced with liberals on the SCOTUS
Kayden Johnson
...
Cooper Ortiz
This is why Trump needs Webb.
Brandon Price
please keep reminding everyone about this
Nicholas Scott
Wall Street Journal has Trump down by just one point in their latest poll.
Jacob Diaz
This is what will happen Refute it >protip: you can't
Ayden Lopez
Sorry wrong pic I'm a faget
Christian Nelson
I agree with everything except Colorado and Ohio
Jayden Gutierrez
For starters. Clinton is going to make Kaine her running mate, and that makes it hard for Trump to win Virginia. Next, Nevada voted for Obama twice, and has lots of spics that vote against Trump for revenge. Colorado has allot spics and transplants from California. Florida and Iowa are possible though.
Kayden Stewart
epic!!!!1 XDDDDD +1
I supose that's possible but unlikely. If he manages to win NV, that means he's doing well nationwide and would likely also win OH and NH.
Kevin Price
>Trump >conservative Pick one and only one.
Julian Jackson
The only person crying is going to be you when this entire country goes to shit in less than a decade from now thanks to you braindead liberals.
Connor Brown
The problem is its so far out from the election no one gives two shits about polls. I saved your image to show its a horse race
Joshua Edwards
>So please stop all this shit about Trump going to lose in a landslide.
Nothing you've posted contradicts that though?
The fact that Trump is behind in Florida and North Carolina, even if only by a little, is not a good thing. If Trump loses in either of these states he cannot win.
Oliver Morales
key states are Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. After that he has a lot of options
Jaxon Green
he can technically win without Florida if he's very lucky