2016 Election Predictions

Post what you honestly THINK will happen.
Not what you WANT to happen, what you THINK will happen.

Also include popular vote prediction.

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Clinton 51.5%
Trump 47%

The map is too fucking skewed in favor of the dems right now.

Trump could win the popular vote by 5% and would still probably lose.

Pic related is me being as optimistic as fucking possible while staying in the realm of what is realistic.

Clinton: 52%
Trump: 46%

Flip:
Nevada to Clinton
Colorado to Trump
Florida to Clinton

I don't know how the Democrats entrenched themselves in urban population centers but that was the best moves they ever made

>Pic related is me being as optimistic as fucking possible while staying in the realm of what is realistic.

you can give him PA, NH and MI if you want to be 'as optimistic as fucking possible while staying in the realm of what is realistic'

I was as pro trump as possible and I still don't see a way.

It's not Trump's fault.
The GOP is actively fighting to stop him which is alienating votes he needs to win.
Plus, on top of the the map has a huge Democrat lean this year.
Fucking Georgia is a battleground state.

CO is absolutely in play this year, Sup Forums.

48% Trump
44% Clinton
8% other

>Pennsylvania
>Going Red

Not in a million years.
You might as well give him New York as well.

>Trump getting Pennsylvania
As a Pittsburgh native, let be the first to tell you that's never going to happen.

Penn people love their guns for hunting season, but at the end of the day this is a blue state. Period.

>Not in a million years.
>You might as well give him New York as well.

hillary has a 2pts lead in PA atm and it's been virtually even for months now. Trump could legit win PA.

There's a chance Trump holds on to West Virginia and Georgia, but even if he does, he loses badly.

Popular vote will be closer but Clinton will still win due to displaced Republicans not voting.

Pennsylvania is becoming more and more red, most polls survey more democrats than Republicans so its very possible

Oh hi Canada, let me learn you something about American politics.

Again, as a PA native resident, this is a blue state. It's not overwhelmingly liberal and will always show up as a close state in the polls, but when push comes to shove, we always end up voting blue.

Trump has a similar lead in Georgia over Clinton. Will Georgia go Blue? Of course fucking not. Same story here only reversed.

>Orlando shooting

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:)

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The dems successfully wove the Orlando shooting to be about homophobia and gun control.
Clinton has only gotten more support from the state since.

890k vs 920k votes in the primaries
Tell me how this is not close

How many times do people need to be told that primaries =/= general election?

And again. I've lived here my whole life.
Every election cycle the GOP makes a push for this state because they think it's in reach.

It doesn't matter if every hic from state College to Harrisburg votes for Trumo, Pittsburgh and Shittydelphia will overpower them.

We should wait until the debates come over to start predicting Tbh.

Elections are turnout driven. Looking at PA's electorate, the Hillary voters are not going to be as motivated as the rural Trump voters, not by a long shot. Will an inner-city Philly or Pittsburgh resident REALLY be as motivated to vote for Hillary as they were for Obama? Will they even vote at all?

I'm imagining the anti-coal miner soundbite getting replayed constantly, and rural PA folks effectively going to war for Trump while urban Dems suffer lackluster turnout and self-assure themselves that "I live in a blue state, not voting is fine."

This map plus blue Arizona.

>"Trump will lead in the polls after he wins the primary"
>"Trump will lead in the polls after Orlando"
>"Trump will be leading in the polls after Brexit"
>"Hillary will be indicted! Trump will be guaranteed a win!"

>"Trump will be leading in the polls after the convention"
>"Trump will be leading in the polls after the debates"
>"Who cares about polls? Trump will win on election night!"
>"Hillary cheated! The system is rigged!"

You forgot North Carolina, in a world where Georgia flips then NC definitely will too.

You city fuckheads dont know shit. I live in central PA and people are crazy about Trump here. Low voter turnout particularly black and young will push the vote to Trump. Screenshot this, same will happen in MI

This seems to be a proTrump thread so here's what he absolutely needs to win:

Florida
Ohio
North Carolina
Pennsylvania

Any other scenario is frankly unrealistic

North Carolina should be locked, he's been winning handily but Hillary has spiked recently due to her endorsements. I expect her to die back down after the Republican convention.

Ohio is feasible. He just needs to to shill his trade policies hard. I think he'll lock it in when he starts spending money.

Florida will be tough. Their electorate is quite fickle so this state will likely be decided by turnout. Hillary will be blitzing "Trump hates Hispanics" ads to mobilize the south. Trump needs to somehow mobilize the north and get them excited. I don't think the Orlando shooting will be enough.

Pennsylvania will be Trump's greatest challenge. Winning Pittsburgh or at least having Hillary barely win is the key. He's promised to return the steel industry. I don't know how that will go. Like Ohio, he needs to shill trade hard.

He really needs to start seriously campaigning soon. And none of this "4D chess campaign in New York and California to steal Pennsylvania and Florida" bullshit. Hillary's campaign is smart and will not fall for these tricks. They'll let him waste his time in this blue states. Trump needs campaign ads and he needs them fast. He's a better marketer than Hillary and he has more material to work with so he should win the ad battle. The problem is getting his message to the people. With the general electorate being generally less informed, they need to see tv commercials, see positives on the news, and hear radio ads. Rallies and tweets will not work. Hillary and the media is already fear mongering Trump hard in these states. It will work really well because she only needs to mobilize Democrats and win one of these states to get into the Oval Office.

Hillary has about a 60+% probability of winning at the moment.

>Silent Majority
This.

>I live in central PA and people are crazy about Trump here
I know they are. Unfortunately, that's all irrelevant. Pic related.

>Low voter turnout particularly black and young will push the vote to Trump.

This is why you're gonna lose. You take it for granted that minority turnout will be low. You can't just assume things like that when planning for victory, it's an easy way to get blindsided in November.

Take a look at the UK referendum, rural areas played a huge role in Leave's victory

Good post, I agree with everything.

Polling is rigged. Get ready for Hillary to sell our anuses to foreigners on the low!

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>winning Pittsburgh
Never going to happen.
It's not a liberal cuckold, but it's still a solid blue city.
The south hills and parts of squirrel hill will vote for Trump. The south side, North shore, downtown, Lawrenceville, and Shadyside are all very pro hillary.

Stop this dream of having Trump win PA. That's not going to happen. He needs to find another way.

>australian intellectuals

>Third party winning any state

Never happening.

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Pretty goddamn accurate

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This is insanely retarded.

What makes you think West Virginia and Georgia will go blue?

Seriously, fucking West Virginia? Might as well give New York and California to Trump

Pennsylvania doesn't have the same demographic makeup of England.

The overwhelming majority of the populace live in urban areas. There isn't enough countryside here to swing the state red. Just enough to make it close.

Staying within realism, if he doesn't win PA then he needs:

NH
Colorado or Wisconsin
Iowa or Nevada

Any scenario here is way less likely than him winning PA. It's PA or bust

I agree whole heartily that West Virginia going blue is retarded, but Georgia is very much in play. Polling indicates they are dead-even in that state, and the Clinton campaign have already targeted it for each ad-buys after the convention. It's still very much a likely-red state, but if Trump keeps tripping over his dick, she could swing it. Same with Arizona and North Carolina.

NC is the exact demographic Trump appeals to though, a blue-collar white state that's lost a lot of honest jobs.

GA is a lot different, but to be frank I lived all over GA and it's not going to flip.

>He needs to find another way.

There really isn't any other way. If Trump can't win Pennsylvania then he would have to do something even more unbelievable like flipping both Iowa and Wisconsin. And even that would only get him to 269, so he'd need to flip one other state in addition to those (probably Colorado). Trump winning Pennsylvania isn't likely but it's still the best and arguably only way he can win, so he has to go all in on it and try.

Keep in mind that there are still people in the city who would vote for trump

Johnson has more of a chance of winning Utah if Romney endorses him than of winning New Mexico.

That would be based, shillary wins the popular but trump pulls a win by the electorate

Which is why I say he really can't win.

I mean, he CAN, but assuming he will is just dumb.
It has nothing to do with being anti-Trump.

post yfw trump pulls a dubya

kek

This is actually the best way Romney could fuck over Trump. It would add another must win swing state to his already long list

>implying the madman wont do it

It's pretty much over. Nobody cared about the email scandals and nobody will care. America will die.

Should be obvious why I picked what I did.

Only note I feel like making is Nevada - I feel Trump has a very large chance to win, but I feel like the presence of Gary Johnson will ultimately swing it to Hillary, especially since most Bernouts will have rallied behind Hillary.

Makes me sad to say this, but ultimately I think Shillary will win. Trump needs to get his shit together.

Final prediction:
Clinton: 48%
Trump: 42%
Johnson: 7%
Stein: 2%
Other: 1%

This.
It's not like Hillary beat Trump on her own. It took a severe sabotaging of potential voters by the GOP to stop the true people's candidate.

I must say I've enjoyed the ride, but now I'm mostly wondering at what point I should jump off. I don't want to still be super involved by the time election day rolls around. I mean, I'll vote for Trump obviously, but I can't still be on the ride when Hillary wins.

This. The media has too much of a grip on the general electorate. They twisted Orlando to make him look weak and they just made the email scandal a complete non issue. Trump would win in a fair campaign but life is not fair. Hillary will be president. Either buy and gun and prepare to fight for your freedoms or look for a new home.

I don't think NC is as white and blue-collar as you think. Maybe in the western part of the state it is, but not in the northeast and the four major cities. And Obama won in in 08, so there's at least precedent for it flipping. Georgia on the other hand hasn't voted Democrat since Bill Clinton in 92, I agree it probably won't flip unless Trump's campaign totally collapses between now and November.

Go down with the ship. Don't be a coward. Tell your children and grandchildren you did all you could.

>look for a new home

There is nowhere else to go, the USA is the last bastion of true freedoms (compared to the rest of the world) : (

youtube.com/watch?v=-96AJFSfPEE

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Why does California have so many goddamned votes, look how big Montana is, and they only get three.

Here's your (YOU)

(you)

lol it's in regards to population, commiefornia has like ~40 million, montana has like 1-1.5 million

>City of L.A. alone has more people

here's (you) your

They imported enormous numbers of illegal immigrants from Asia, issued them fake ID's, and had the local tongs make them vote democrat. Among other things.

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I believe Georgia going blue is very unlikely just because how god damn conservative that place is.

Going by polls alone and if the election was tomorrow, this would be the result. Nevada could go either way. I couldn't find any polls.

Trump NEEDS to win Florida, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Ohio to win. Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia are too unrealistic to even consider. Those states he needs to win are growing in blue numbers so he'll have a big uphill battle to win. I'm actually surprised how well he's doing in Colorado.

Trump needs to stop bullshitting around and actually start launching ads if those states if he wants to win. His VP pick will also play a huge role in the GE. If he chooses someone retarded and unlikable like Gingrich or Sessions then all hope for a Trump victory will dissipate.

I cannot see Trump winning at all honestly.

I don't even think it's Trump's fault entirely. If the GOP honored their commitments and went full on for Trump, spent enough money, united together and attacked Hillary, they could definitely reach enough working class whites to push Trump to victory. Instead, they act like Jews with the Party's money, attack Trump, jump on board with fucking SJW horseshit, openly praise Hillary and refuse to vote for him despite telling everyone else to unite for Romney 4 years ago.

Trump is fighting a massive political machine with half strength. It would've been close had the Republicans united around Trump, but it'll be a catastrophic blowout considering his own party is intentionally sabotaging him. When they see fucking pieces of shit like Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan blasting their Party's nominee like they do, what do you imagine people will think?

There is absolutely nothing worse than the traitors in the GOP. I'd hang Romney, Ryan or McConnell before I'd hang Shillary. At least Shillary is supposed to be against Trump.

>mfw the Orlando shooting means she can run anti-gun ads and take Florida
>mfw this was her plan all along

I think I'll be sad

>270towin.com

post yfw this map happens on election night

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>Hillary winning West Virginia
>Hillary winning South Carolina
>Hillary winning Kentucky
>Hillary winning Tennessee
>Hillary winning Utah
>Hillary winning Louisiana

nice meme :^)

I dunno. As somebody who grew up in Nevada...it's a weird state.

You've got a ton of Californians who have Nevada ID's (and therefore vote for Nevada) to avoid taxes. Cali is their "summer home." That'll probably swing it to Clinton.

But you've also got mormons in higher proportions than almost anywhere except Utah, Nevada libertarians, an obscene number of tinfoilers, metroplitan liberals, and God knows what else. Southern Nevada is basically just Vegas, and thus very metropolitan, but northern Nevada is just Bumfuck, Nowhere except for a few places. As a result, only the southern vote really counts.

Also, Sheldon Adelson will likely decide who takes Nevada.

>Republicans praise Hillary
Wait, what?

>Kentucky
>Blue

Completely agree. The turning point of this election was Trump refusing Gingrich's bribe to become VP. Before that, the party was unifying behind him and he was getting endorsements left and right. Literally the day after Infowars reported he refused the bribe, the GOP jumped on whatever the manufactured scandal was at the time, retracted their endorsements, and started actively campaigning for Hillary. If he picks an establishment VP, he might be able to salvage his campaign but he won't based on principle.

This campaign will read like a Greek tragedy with Trump's greatest failure being his desire to end political corruption.

It's going to be all about Ohio and Florida

This.

The GOP isiterally is worse than the Democrats.


Honestly, unless there's a MAJOR terrorist attack that doesn't involve assault rifles, I don't see Trumo winning this election.
If there's a silver lining to all this, it's that my woes have been opened to how incredibly undermined the US democratic process is by the true forces that run the country.

I suppose I should take the Brexit victory and leave the table somewhat satisfied.

Missouri here. I have kin in all those states except Utah, and everyone unanimously hates Hillary and loves Trump. That user's map is total fiction.

East Ky is mostly poor welfare folks, meth, and heroin. West on the other hand, I have seen next to no minorities outside of Paducah.

Yeah, Nevada seems pretty weird. Was the hardest state to predict for along with NH.

Given you have the Californians with Nevada ID, I think it's likely to swing for Hillary. Though I do think Trump has a very, very real chance to win there if he plays his cards right.

Same with here in NC. Lot of white, working class people who've been fucked out of jobs (including my mother). She and I will be voting Trump in November, hopefully he can eke out a victory.

>Trump winning VA, NV, CO, and IA

that's a bold claim

My state, Nevada, will go blue as usual

He doesn't need Colorado, he already wins with justFlorida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Yeah, it was WV which is the real bullshit. Trump will easily win in a landslide, lots of white working class voters.

New Jersey native, travel to Amish country every few months.
Amish people will have massive turnouts this year. Never before have I seen the amount of enthusiasm I am now coming from the Amish for an election.

About 85% of my family comes from WV. They want to fucking hang Hillary. They're Hatfields, too, which doesn't help.

I guess so. I'm not holding my breath though.

>WV
>working class
pfftahahahahahha

Mormons don't help Trump though, they hate him enough to put Utah on the verge of being a competitive this cycle.

Aren't the suburbs looking good for republicans this year, too? I remember a poll where Trump was up solidly with housewives.

Can't tell if concern troll demoralization shills or if you seriously think this.

Also
>The media has too much of a grip on the general electorate.

The media absolutely slaughtered Dubya before the 2004 election (or as a more recent example, Brexit) but he still won.

You don't know what the fuck you're talking about, kiddo, so save your dignity now and quit pretending.

The electoral map is more cucked than it ever has been.

Virginia, the capital state of the confederacy is now essentially a lock for the democrats.

So when Trump loses to HILLARY in November. Don't feel too bad, it was pretty innevitable and out of his control

Quit pretending what? The fuck are you on about?

Dumb motherfucker

I love this new demoralization tactic by shills.

>yeah whatever the election is rigged
>Trump can't win anyway it's out of his control
>Hillary didn't get indicted so she'll win because that means she has the FBI on her side

Fuck off.

NOVA needs nuked.