projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Trump now bumped up to 37.5% chance to win. He has been rising in these projections for some time now.
Nate has seen the light and knows that a Trump presidency is inevitable. He just has to update his projections gradually to keep his credibility.
He has also been inserting Trump landslides in his electoral college density analysis. See the two outlier bars near the end of Trumps graph
MELANIA COPYING MICHELLE'S SPEECH IS THE END OF TRUMPS CAMPAIGN
HE'S DONE
>that spike near 500
reagan 2.0 confirmed
isnt nate silver that guy that said multiple times how trump is over?
...
You do realize he doesn't come up with those numbers right? All he does is add polls
No, you are thinking about Sam Hyde.
Not sure who Sam Hyde is, but Silver definitely did that as well.
dailycaller.com
He constantly tweaks the system though.
It's afraid...
...
Nice meme.
Also, for the first time since May, Trump is now ahead in a poll that isn't Rasmussen.
Sam Hyde is a self-styled comedian who's been trying to shill his brand of comedy on Sup Forums for quite a number of years. He's responsible for the spam of a pic of himself styled as the perpetrator of the latest happening with a number of follow up posts trying to force a meme. Been claiming that he'd be on Adult Swim for a years now, but I think that's him trying to get some sort of support so people ask Adult Swim if he's really going to be on it. All in all, he's a jew who would sell anyone out if it'd get him slightly ahead.
>Mfw drinking the salty libshit tears
Hillary has it rigged anyways.
Nate Silver is a hack. The 538 blog removes incorrect primary predictions from the "past results" section of their primary coverage so that they don't look bad for miscalling most of trumps primary wins and Bernie winning Colorado.
>Nate has seen the light and knows that a Trump presidency is inevitable.
lol you moron. Polls and data and facts are not subjective. This is not the Soviet Union.
Trump needs more consistent results. He's benefiting because Hillary is near an all time low in popularity right now, not because he is any more popular.
He has to capitalize at the RNC to make himself be as appealing as possible and react more effectively next time there is a disaster by acting as a healer
>Trump
>Winning the elction
I know, but he's always had a liberal / Anti-Trump bias. If even Silver is coming around on his projections, that means something.
Good one
Nobody could've predicted this would happen
couple things of note
he is within the margin in almost every poll that actually has at least a sample of 1000 and those where he isnt he is ahead.. hmmm
then there are the worst outliers like fucking reuters and CNN (Clinton News Network)... taking this into consideration trump is ahead by about 2 with a margin of 1
>Trump has literally spent zero dollars ($0)
>Shilldog has already spent millions
W e w
(((NATE SILVER))) is a fucking hack, no doubt. But if I was him, I'd fire the even bigger hack (((HARRY ENTEN))), who hasn't had a single correct prediction.
also, we still havent had one fucking debate so just keep going at it guys.
we are way ahead of the game right now
If the predictions rise too strongly the passive left may turn out to vote. It's a boon from trump that the polls paint him as an underdog - this should be maintained throughout his campaign.
Obama ended up winning with an RCP average of plus +.7 overall, in reality the margin turned out be even greater, +3.9, they overestimated how close it was. If anything it may be even more slanted towards Hillary than we realized.
This same time 4 years ago Romney and Obama were both more popular than Hillary and Trump and the race was even closer
True, but if you take the (weighted) average of those polls, then the margin of error would go down. Pretty sure in that scenario he's outside the margin.
I'm thinking he's assuming a small chance of either the Clinton Foundation murders becoming public or Hillary dying of a stroke prior to Election Day.
No he doesn't
the reuters and cnn polls are obvious outliers though with obvious sampling bias, which even more so drives moe down if removed
Nate literally admitted to using "muh feels" for his models for Trump back in May.
>Unlike virtually every other forecast we publish at FiveThirtyEight — including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned — our early estimates of Trump’s chances weren’t based on a statistical model. Instead, they were what we “subjective odds” — which is to say, educated guesses.
fivethirtyeight.com
This election will be decided solely by voter apathy. For that reason I think Trump has a chance but it's certainly less than a 10% chance. It's too late to set up a ground game and he picked an awful running mate.
I'd say that effect applies to most of our narcissistic politicians as well.
Or do you actually believe that the political establishment has been doing a good job running the country this millennium?
If you stick with the two party system then the choice is between a man who is underqualified and has an inflated opinion of himself and a woman who has a history of incompetence and is probably the most corrupt politician in the country.
I'll choose inexperience over corruption.
shut the fuck up
I took a very crude weighted average, weighing the polls by number of voters only.
If you discard CNN and Reuters, Clinton is at +0.9
If you discard Rasmussen as well (which honestly is also an outlier), Clinton is at +1.4
I don't have the equipment with me to compute MoE though.
The good news is that Trump is getting ahead in mainstream polls.
For months, he's only been ahead in Rassmussen, whose ranked #1 for fake polls.
However, the Rassmussen polls were important because they balance the ridiculous 11 pt lead
I think nate-boy knows he cant risk being so btfo again so he's being careful
>Nate Cardboard
>Pacific Northwest and money states in the Midwest softening
Praise the motherfucking lord and pass the god damn ammunition. We're gonna kill everybody.
OK I computed MoE anyway. Assuming a normal approximation for the binomial distribution:
99% confidence interval excluding rasmussen:
(Hillary +0.4, Hillary + 2.4)
99% confidence interval including rasmussen:
(Trump +0.001, Hillary +1.8)
Can we take a moment to marvel at this pure non-sequitur that the left keeps claiming?
>The wife
>Of a candidate
>Wrote a speech
>In that speech, there is a paragraph
>85% of that paragraph is identical to another paragraph
>Written by the first lady
>Said first lady also copied said paragraph from another book
>But
>BUT
>Because the wife of a candidate
>Copied a paragraph of her speech
>That candidate
>Is done for
???
How many dead parisians are enough, mate?
It's just something they'll have to get used too.
>Wall Street Journal
Totally discredted
>CNN
Trustworthy during the primaries
>YouGove
Semi-credible
>NBC News
Credible
>LA Times
If they have Clinton getting stumped you know it's true
Wait a minute
Hahaha
Wait
Hahahahaha
So Michelle obama actually stole it from something else?
Hahahahahahahhahah
YOU DUMB TWATS! The whole purpose of copying that is to draw attention to how obama stole it to begin with. It's fucking six dimensional trolling - classic trump maneuver!
Hahahaha
And, assuming it was intentional, it gets an image of the first lady and Melania side-by-side plastered on every news site until the next terrorist attack of non-issue shenanigan pops up.
>Implying the polls are done by the news outlets and not outsourced third party outlets as is the case
Are you legitimately retarded or just pretending to be?
>Implying the news outlets don't instruct the third party outlets to oversample their demographic of choice
I could ask you the same question
REMINDER NATE SILVER IS ALWAYS WRONG
HE'S TRYING TO USE HIS OWN BAD MEME MOJO AGAINST US
lol
He has Colorado as a blues state...
Nate seems to be totally wrong about everything. He got into sports predictions and lost his ass there too. I am not sure if he went insane or just burned his mind out on drugs. If you bet against Nate you will be right 87% of the time.