Deutsche Bank

So, Deutsche Bank is fucked right?

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Yep. Not long now.

Do you know what it will mean for us Brits?
Should I sell my assets now?

18billion market cap

compared to UK banks, Deutsche Bank would still be the 5th largest UK bank by market cap after HSBC, Llyods, RBS and Barclays.

GBP is an island. Will only strengthen, assuming there are some unknown pulls from the EU that drag us down with it. If you have any Euro notes lying around, I'd change those up, however. Just in case the collapse goes into freefall.

Yeah, with 72.8Tn in derivative exposures. A shift of 0.02% bankrupts DB overnight. When's the lovely recession coming, I wonder?

Can they still salvage the situation or are they betting on a tax-payer bailout?

The taxpayer can't bail them out. €75 trillion exposure vs $16 trillion (the entire GDP of the EU)

i thought you guys are already in one ;D

Deutsch bank? More like douche bank.

Fuck.
€75 trillion is almost one world GDP worth.

>A shift of 0.02% bankrupts DB overnight.
I don't think you know what derivatives are, do you? There are no "shifts" in derivatives.

...

It's fair to say that the majority of the accumulation of derivatives are forward derivatives. These are unlikely to lost any more than 5% assuming all other conditions remain unchanged during the collapse. The real toxic derivitives that can actually collapse in on themselves probably account for around €5-8Tn, which is still hundreds of times more than the entire EU could cope with. More significant is that when financial institutions get wiped out, the knock-on effect to EVERY business is devastating. The chaos -could- be Germany 1920s style across the entire Eurozone. Well done UK for saying no to Tony Blair and all the other tards.

I don't think -you- know what derivatives are if you formulate a response like that. Aggregate valuation and "shifts" is a well-used term. I don't speak German and I don't care to. Choose another term if you don't like it.

I remember not long ago some state was having a pissy fit over Deutsche Bank not funding projects there over bathroom laws.

Serves them right.

>Aggregate valuation and "shifts" is a well-used term.
Nope, shifts are not used when talking about derivatives. We talk about net exposure. I work in fucking finance. I work with ISDA contracts for derivatives. I know that by gross nominal value Deutsche's derivatives on its balance are interest rate swaps. There is no exposure from that - these are swaps used for clients. They don't pose risk.

You are talking about CDS which are highly regulated and a completely different ballgame.

The reason why Deutsche's market cap has gone down is various scandals including a VAT tax scam, lackluster investment banking business, problems in the retail banking sector (which they want to sell), government investigation in other tax frauds and problems, and a general problem with the European banking sector which has suppressed banking shares... also caused by massive regulation but in place since 2009 in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

i like how delusional brits think that they could stay afloat while the whole eurozone goes bust...

there is no way you would survive that... most of the exposure we talk about is managed by a 100% british daughter of deutsche... so if this blows you will take quite the hit... considering the fact that you have no manufacturing industrie and all you do is financial services any kind of minor crises will fuck up london more than europe.

Haven't you got work to be getting on with, Schauble?

>Will fuck up London
Correct. None of the rest of the country.

Well, I don't think the UK let in 1 million Muslims recently

Everyone should take all their money from Deutsche Bank and make it collapse

Well, if it's not Deutsche Bank, then there's an inevitable private debt crisis in China right? It always goes like this, that when household and corporate debt grows, then there's a collapse in the end

If you think that DB is going to collapse, better buy land or gold with your money.

>1 million
Sure, on paper. Double or triple that to get an accurate figure.

And what does the rest of the country do? You even don't have your own agriculture and share of industry in the GDP is smaller than in other countries

>They don't know that Deutsche Bank is too big to fail
Hahha, retards

That's called a "run on the bank". They are worried about that in Italy and soon in Germany. Germany, however, has its head so far up its own arse it will never react in time.

remember guys: green=bad

There is a short distance from too big to fail to too big to be saved.

>Haven't you got work to be getting on with, Schauble?
It's 9pm, mate. Summer. I am home from wörk wörk wörk. You know what wörk is, right?

You got #REKT so you have no response except for name-calling

Don't even challenge a German to a debate again mate

With Germans, you lose

They're too smart

>remember: no russian

i thought it was happening, but it isnt happening. is it happening?

I tried to reformulate that into English, but I grew bored. If you are suggesting that we have less of a GDP share in agriculture then you are correct. Our country is incredibly rich, even with all the Polish people scooping up the crumbs from our economy.

Our agriculture has been crippled by the EU and, like with fishing, it can finally thrive again now that we are fucking off from the political union.

Any chance of an economic meltdown in the short term?

Of course I do, Wolfy. Although I suspect you might forget soon enough.

WE'RE GONNA DIE

seekingalpha.com/article/3989163-sunday-night-reflections-crash-burn?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-widget

>Sucking on German cock
Man, have some self-respect.

He is living in a fantasy land thinking that derivative exposure isn't real, that valuations somehow still remain even with business failures. Why would I bother arguing with someone so jaded? Plenty of other good folks to respond to on this board.

What do u think of John cryan

fun times were had

srsly tho europes are in for a shitshow:
seekingalpha.com/article/3989935-beer-beamers-benzes-behind-draghis-bizarre-bazooka

>Any chance of an economic meltdown in the short term?
From Deutsche? Nope, not a fucking chance.

From China, the Italian Banks, some huge terrorist attack, from the EU crumbling, etc. - sure thing.

>Our agriculture has been crippled by the EU
your agriculture has been crippled since the industrial revolution and enclosures, which mean that the group of a free peasantry was demolished and pushed to go to the city where they formed the proletariat

>Our country is incredibly rich
We'll see if Britain has the capability and social resources to rebuild itself. You have savings, but you can run out of them eventually. And if the families and communities are in decline, as I think is the case with the West in general, then it will be harder to lift oneself up after a crisis hits, but this is just my personal prediction

How to lie with statistics.

And it's not stopping

With the unrest (and future unrest) in Turkey, I reckon Germans will be fleeing the country within 10 years.

Investment tip: Buy 10 year futures in the popcorn sector.

Didn't I read somewhere that soros took about a 9 billion dollar short position on deutsche bank? That's really all anyone needs to know.

wouldn't be the first time he hit a wall..

He's lost his touch, his money was on Britain staying on the EU.

sauce?

are you retarded? he shorted the s&p 500 and the pound and went long on gold miners.

He funds refugees welcome and hillary (libya?)
Why do you think that is? Because he's a humanitarian who gives a fuck about muslims?

Yesterday got a call from the private banker I use to manage my money. He was telling/asking me to move almost all of my european based holdings to either asian markets or US municipal bonds.

Hopefully

did he give you a timeframe for the crash?

Even if they crash you still have plenty of denbts to pay

>implying Merkel would let a German bank fail when giving an endless amount of money to Greek banks

I know that.
I just want to see them destroyed.

IRS doesn't pose risk only if hedged with vanilla FI (bond, fra etc) or inverse IRS. Is it the case for DB? If yes, proof please.

Regulation of CDS doesn't mean bank can't have a huge position in it. What you again probably meant it is hedged, but by what? Listed CDSs?

He said before the end of the year, but what I had in there was just going to stagnate so might as well get ahead of the curve. Another thing I asked him about was investing in UK based assets, since the pound is weak, its basically a 30% off coupon on anything british. He said he'd look into options but most of the data says that that will at best stagnate for the next year.

Here is Deutsche's sensitive analysis from its 2015 annual report on derivatives exposure. Derivatives are a non-issue for Deutsche.

Read their financials to look at their hedge and derivatives accounting and what types of derivative exposure.

annualreport.deutsche-bank.com/2015/ar/servicepages/downloads/files/dbfy2015_notes.pdf

sounds like a jewish scam