USA Election Chill discussion

This Election will be close unless something drastic occurs.

Trump goals: Flip Ohio and Pennsylvania cus "muh jobs and blue collar whites" and flip Florida cus "Super popular there and Orlando"

Facts: 1. Obama won Florida and many other states cus "muh change and I'm first nigger prez" and lost a few in 2012 once the buzz cooled down.

2. Florida was won by less than 1% of the vote in 2012. Now do you really think they will vote better for the less popular Hillary? Doubtful, especially versus Trump after Orlando massacre and Trump's popularity there due to his business.

3. The Rust Belt, more specifically Ohio flipped to Dem cus economic crisis which was blamed on Bush presidency. However, continued job loss there is now fuelling blame for Dems so many will flip, especially due to Trump's protectionism.

Hill goals: Get black turnout high and win NC like Obama and win Arizona "cus Hispanics".

Facts : 1. Black turnout rate increased 4.9 percentage points, from 60.3% in 2004 to 65.2% in 2008 for Obama, but buzz has died down and in 2012 Obama lost NC. It's a meme to even consider Hillary can rally more blacks than Obama, let alone the same.

2. Arizona has a Latino population sitting at less than 35%. Some say because of the wall Latinos would vote to keep Trump out of the White House. This is not a swing state, it was won by nearly 10%. People vote because of a candidate they like, not for hatred of the opposing. And even if they do, the conservatives would vote for Gary in small numbers, so not much votes to flip Arizona for Hillary.

Also, elections are won on energy and turnout. Obama won in a landslide due to getting black and libcuck turnout high while Mccaine was the definition of boring. Romney lost cus he was mostly low energy in comparison and Hillary isn't looking too good either due to her general unpopularity.

MANY people HATE Trump, but that's not what matters, what matters is if he can get white electorate turnout high, which has consistently had the highest turnout in the majority of elections. He only needs to retain boring Romney's States and flip these few. The only thing Hillary can do is defend, and she has to defend across the board.

that dark feeling in the back of my head wants Hillary to win. I just want the middle class to suffer some more

can trump really win pennsylvania? i feel like that state is the key to this election.

The city of Pittsburgh literally decides the election at the moment

i'm a new yorker but i'll be voting for Trump. I know my vote won't mean much but its the bet i can do ;_;

I live in Iowa. Trump is winning Iowa. Hillarys posse fucked over the bernie crowd hard here. Polls already show her losing the state.

>Georgia
>not full red

Can some Americans explain this meme?

A poll that came out yesterday says Trump and Clinton are tied in Connecticut. The map should take account of this. Connecticut should be colored gray.

let's not jump into conclusions
wait until the DNC fully unravels

atlanta. dont worry niggers dont vote.

it's a media driven "black people will vote for a white person" meme

you should probably kill yourself

>Virginia is blue.

Literally doushite.

Anybody that was gainfully employed in the south that doesn't make muh guns an issue has a weird fetish for the Clinton 90's, what with Bill being from Arkansas and such. Add to that the inevitability of him mysteriously getting cancer or Alzheimer's during the election and the sympathy vote ends it.

And we're gonna go blue. PA hasnt gone red in years

>Anybody that was gainfully employed in the south that doesn't make muh guns

so about 10% of southerners, good to know

Trump can't possibly win, look at the numbers, this is simple science.

(((you)))

Trump would definitely win in a head-to-head election. Hilary's about as charismatic as a catfish, and her record getting tarnished day-by-day is no good.

With how divisive both candidates are, I think the key to this election will be how big Gary Johnson and Jill Stein get and who they draw voters from.

I think who Johnson takes votes from is still up in the air, but most likely he'll pull more voters from Trump just like how Perot stole HW Bush's second term and handed it to Clinton. There's also the question of whether or not big name Republicans that haven't jumped on the Trumpwagon will voice their support of Johnson.

Stein definitely takes votes from Hilary. With the latest DNC email leaks, there's a chance for her support to grow with Bernie supporters. Plus, she hasn't announced a running mate - though convincing Bernie to join her would require Bernie thinking Trump would be the better choice for the presidency or a guaranteed 4-way election.

>mass exodus to Republican party
>near equal primary turnout
>DNC in chaos after day 1/7 of leaks
>Bernie supporters in revolt against Clinton
>Never Trump largely giving up and hopping on the Trumptrain

keep telling yourself that

God this fucking scares me. It all comes down to Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania will be the most difficult swing state to flip over to the right. It hasn't voted Republican in decades.

Virginia isn't a total loss for Trump. It only went blue by 4 percentage points in 2012, and like you said, the black voter turnout was very high that year and Virginia does have many blacks. They won't support Hillary at the same rate as they did for Obama.

New Hampshire and Iowa are definitely in play. If Trump can with those plus Nevada or Colorado, he can lose both Pennsylvania and Virginia and still win the election.

Even with that in mind, Clinton certainly is more likely to be elected president. She pretty much just needs Virginia and Trump's chances of winning the election vanish.

if trump can get the black working man vote.. err nvm.

How's it looking there?

Anons keep saying they see Trump signs everywhere.

Burgers, if you vote in Trump then I'll be more proud of you than I could possibly even imagine.

>nevada
>michigan
>blue
nice try

This. I really think the Democrats convention is going to be even more entertaining than Trumps. My money is on a BLM takeover. They've got saint trayvons mom speaking and others, who I bet will go wildly and hilariously off script. The other likelihood now with the email leaks is a total rebellion by sanders supporters.

Expect hillary to get booed during her own acceptance speech. It's going to be great.