Even Nate Silver can see that trump will win, GG Hillcucks!
Even Nate Silver can see that trump will win, GG Hillcucks!
Oliver Brown
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Aaron Hernandez
Electoral results when adjusted for turnout.
Liam Garcia
I wonder why he thinks Nevada will be red.
It seems pretty safe blue.
Michael Diaz
This outdated poll
realclearpolitics.com
Robert Cooper
>NY
>Blue
Jeremiah Perez
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
A lot of polls have trump leading there.
Joshua Johnson
So that means you're going to snackbar that place?
Levi Clark
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Those numbers are fake.
Jeremiah Morales
Trump is very popular in Nevada and Florida because he's spent a lot of time there in his life.
Nathaniel Ward
>NJ
>red
while i have been seeing a lot of trump signs around jersey, it's been historically blue and i doubt we'll uncuck ourselves despite giving trump the victory in the primaries
Adrian Morris
honestly the fact that nate has trump as high as 44% speaks volumes
Colton Taylor
No, he's using the now-cast instead of polls/polls plus
Liam Clark
Just need to add Ohio and Pennsylvania and he'd be right.
Ethan Nguyen
OP said "even Nate Silver can see", falsely implying that Silver reported these numbers.
Hudson Thomas
But he did. Nate uses three different forecast methods. Polls-only, polls-plus and now-cast, which is basically polls-plus except they lie to the computer and tell it the election is today. It's a bit more aggressive on trendlines and the weighing of polls is different (more emphasis on recent).
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
you can switch between the methods in the menu on the left.
Michael Turner
I apologize, then, for not noting the now-cast, although OP didn't say he was using now-cast.
But now-cast is supposed to be a predictor of how the election would turn out today. So today, right after the GOP election, Clinton has a 55.7% chance of winning, and OP says that Trump will win?
Landon Roberts
Kasich says "Trump probably can't win OH".
Anthony Walker
Feels bad
t. Ocean county
Dominic Collins
PA and OR and maybe WA are at risk of going purple or red due to low dem voter turn out.
The DNC thing is sealing the deal for the bernouts, and giving them a lot of ammunition.
Brody Watson
No problem.
I think OP means that a few weeks ago, the percentages were about 80-20, and Trump has been steadily rising, and he's suggesting that Nate is starting to 'come around'.
Nonsense of course since the model just calculates the odds based on recent polls.
Alexander Edwards
Eurofag here, what happens when pic related occurs?
Easton Williams
if no candidate gets 270 out of 538, election gets thrown to the House of Representatives
Anthony Gutierrez
The house of representatives decides on the president. That most likely means Trump.
Gavin Bailey
Because tthe House of Representatives is mostly republican? But doesn't the establishment hate Trump? Anyway, is that even a likely scenario?
Zachary Johnson
They hate giving supreme court picks to the liberals more than trump winning by far.
Austin Butler
FUCK CHICAGO. I live in central illinois and everyone here is redpilled as fuck. Chicago +suburbs make up for 55% of our population and they're all cucks. Just fuck my shit up.
Jayden Johnson
A candidate needs to hit 270 to win directly, so it can be thrown to the house if:
- Both candidates get 269 (there are a few possible ways this can happen)
- A third party candidate (Johnson?) gets enough electoral votes so that both Clinton and Trump stay below 270
At the moment both scenarios do not seem very likely.
The House is majority republican at the moment and most likely will stay that way in november. Sure there is some hate from the establishment from Trump, but in the end they would prefer him over handing the white house to Clinton. This election is EXTREMELY important since the next president will most likely appoint 3 or 4 supreme court justices.
Plus, I'm pretty sure Trump will show a more moderate, calm side the next months and the hate from the establishment will quiet down.
Jackson Kelly
It always baffles me so much to see maps like this, when majority of the states (80%) are red, so the majority want Trump to be president. But then Shilldog has 55.7 % chance? Doesn't make any sense that California and New York get to have such a gargantuan take on who gets to be president
Hunter Russell
house republicans would rather vote trump than a democrat
Cooper Cruz
The electoral votes are proportional to the state's population and are periodically adjusted. To me it makes sense that the 38 million people in California have more to say than the 500.000 in Wyoming.
Juan Brown
most of those red areas are pretty barren due to deserts/mountains/plains
Carson Baker
Thanks guys for all the information
Lincoln Thompson
Obviously, I've been an elections official five times in Finland myself (really profitable by the way, earned 170e/h from that). But if the president only represents people from a couple of big states, the system is faulty
Nolan Harris
Totally. South of I80 Illinois is basically East Iowa.
Elijah Cook
the president slaughters a lamb and the attorney general reads the trail of the blood
Jace Powell
Northburbs cuck here. Sorry brah, i tried to help the trump train
Mason Harris
>Maine blue
>Pennsylvania blue
>Ohio blue
Keep dreamin son
Carson Powell
217 here, i know that feel bro, whole town is covered in giant homemade Trump signs and it wont mean shit because of the gibsmedats and the (((Madigan))) gang
Noah Long
>user thinks yard signs are significant
I still remember the 2008 Presidential Primary in SC, driving to work down a road lined all the way with Duncan Hunter signs.