Nate Silver's 538 now gives Donald Trump 57.5% chance of winning
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I love how the Hillary shills kept posting Nate Silver's predictions when Trump's chances in said predictions kept on going up.
Is it really happening?
And apparently this is the one that has been adjusted for his convention bounce.
It's happening. DNC fucked up big time. If Trump doesn't win, it's the combined effort of him fucking up and Hillary stepping up her game.
...
only in the now-cast but yes it's real. Polls-only and polls-plus are just designed so that they need more time to adjust.
Trump might actually be president
Is colorado and new mexico always blue?
Can't wait for the jew tears on the next podcast form the crybaby jew that they employ for some non journalistic reason
TRUMP BTFO
ITS OVER
NATE SHILLVER JUST GAVE TRUMP THE KISS OF DEATH
the convention bump was abnormally large though, and its not like the DNC is going to boost hillary judging by the absolute shitstorm thats already raging regarding the e-mail leaks.
I am not familiar with Nate Silvers' methods, what do these terms mean?
> There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000.
cnn.com
Time to be nervous again
The jewish shill Silver knows that only by scaring libshits of a Trump presidency will they be able to mobilize everyone to show up on election day.
Polls only is exactly what it sounds like. Polls plus is the polls plus Nate's analysis. Now-cast is the same as polls only but gives much more weight to the current polls.
*sips tea
>Sup Forums has actual influence in the real world
i think now-cast means the most recent polls only, which may include bias because certain events might 'bump' a candidate but only temporarily (see: republican convention).
polls-plus probably means it includes polls that go back further (better averages) and also include 'historical' data, for example pennsylvania has been democrat for many decades so its much more likely to stay that way than to just suddenly turn red.
>Nate's analysis
How valuable is this anyway?
Depends on how much you trust Nate. He has been giving the edge to Trump in his analysis so it might be ok.
think he has been close for lots of them
Colorado and New Mexico last went Republican in a presidential race in 2004, when Bush beat John Kerry in both of those states.
How many valium do you think shillcuck has already taken today?
>when nate silver disagrees with me: SHILL, FAGGOT
>when nate silver agrees with me: REDPILLED, BASED
Cool.
The tree of liberty shall be watered. Not with the blood of tyrants or patriots, but with the blood of memes.
Kek wills it.
>Sup Forums has actual influence in the real world
>Sup Forumstards actually believe they are the ones responsible for Donald Trump's rise
Cute, but delusional.
>when nate silver agrees with me: REDPILLED, BASED
No-one is saying that.
In fact, I've been saying for months that Nate was going to start slowly increasing his odds for Trump after how WRONG he was all of last year.
He needs to regain his credibility, so he has no choice but to start bumping up Trump to keep up with reality.
Silver has been spectularly wrong about Trump for the past year. If he gives Trump a 57% chance of winning today, the real odds are probably more like 90%.
Trumptard logic.
Not an argument.
It's over. Obama is finished.
This. Nate Kikeburger tried to play pundit and turned into le increasingly nervous man even if the raw data said Trump would win the primaries in a landslide.
that was only one poll. trump is winning now in the averages, on which OP is also based. trump has had over 6 polls now showing lead.
Not. He sait it was absolutely impossible for trump to get the nom three months ago.
Hes a fucking hack
>ignore Nate when his ``predictions'' go against us
>shill Nate when his ``predictions'' go for us
Nate Copper is a hack.
>Not an argument.
Love this meme. Do you need me to explain why your retarded logic is fucking retarded?
came here to post this and stare at the ceiling
follow your leaders, burger mutton
cuck just changes those numbers daily
Get a load of this unbeliever.
My logic is just fine, libshit.
You can't make a credible argument that Silver has not consistently undersold Trump throughout the duration of his campaign.
If your logic is superior to his, why not put him in his place rather than grandstand on an anonymous ice fishing platform
>My logic is just fine, libshit.
I'm not a liberal. I find this accusation funny considering that you're voting for a liberal nationalist.
>You can't make a credible argument that Silver has not consistently undersold Trump throughout the duration of his campaign.
He did underestimate Donald Trump because nobody really saw Donald Trump as credible, because statistically he wasn't. The point is you made this fucking retarded leap in logic that saying if Nate underestimated Trump before, then all of his current predictions and estimations for Trump must be like 40% off and he is now 90% likely to win. That's fucking dumb and you should feel dumb for even thinking that.
The ceiling argument is different and you are obviously entirely unaware of the context of it during Trump's nominee run. It wasn't that inaccurate at the time.
>The point is you made this fucking retarded leap in logic that saying if Nate underestimated Trump before, then all of his current predictions and estimations for Trump must be like 40% off and he is now 90% likely to win. That's fucking dumb and you should feel dumb for even thinking that.
.
Now I need to explain hyperbole and other rhetorical devices to you? Good lord.
>Hillary stepping up her game.
Hillary is a champagne Liberal. She's spent no time improving herself since she got BTFO by Obama. Her speech skills are just as shit and she's been coasting along on corrupt security.
>statistically he wasn't.
this is the real meme: that credibility can be measured in such a manner.
believing this fiction is why nate's a cuck.
I don't think those number represent probability of winning, tzenpay
>I was merely using hyperbole and PRETENDING to be retarded, guys!
You sure outwitted me, wow!
OHIO'S TURNING RED LADS!!! YOU KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS!!!
only 57 that fucking kike jew
Bbbbbbbut guiz....Trump is the Nickleback of politics. He's reached his cap.
>this is the real meme: that credibility can be measured in such a manner.
Huh? Statistics are reliable. They're used for a great deal of things to great effect. Just because Trump happened to be an underdog that had a huge surge and went from a joke candidate to a juggernaut doesn't mean that statistics don't work. It means that the 5% thing happened.
Just like Bernie wasn't favored to win Michigan and was statistically given about a 1% chance of winning doesn't mean that statistics are broken. 99% is not 100%.
>everything is meant to be taken literally
Confirmed Asperger's.
I was making fun of Nate's reliably wrong predictions about Trump by saying that if Nate gives him a slight edge at this point, Trump must be a near lock to win. It's called being tongue-in-cheek.
Do you get it now?
Sup Forums started this free bleed campaign once that said it was empowering to not use a tampon when your on your period. And they got a bunch of people to post pictures of themself bleeding through their pants online. One woman even ran a race while bleeding through her pants. Pol affecting the real world happens more often than you'd think.
Trump's the William Hung of politics. You're not sure if he's serious or just retarded, but you know for sure he shouldn't be there.
The difference 8 hours makes.
I am now an #ObamaMissile
>I'm going to back down on my original statements like the cuckold I am since you actually took the time to address my retardation. YOU'RE SUCH AN AUTIST! I WAS JUST KIDDING GUY!
Fuck off. You asked how your logic was retarded and now you're backpedaling and saying you were just kidding.
I like how you implied that Jews and Nazis were allies. I can't believe 13% of America is like you (a nigger) and gets to fuck up every damn election.
and this should prove why the electoral college is a shit system. i love how the seaboard statistically speak for the rest of the country....
>champagne Liberal
You're damn right and she's probably more of a neo-con than Trump. Not sure why Sup Forums doesn't like her more, there will more happenings with her than him.
whoa really makes you think... i am now #NigMissile
Most of the Trump support, from what I gather, has to do with him not being the one chosen FOR the people, instead of BY the people.
In polls-plus which adjusts for convention bump, Drumpf is still an underdog.
Increasingly nervous man is now increasingly resigned man.
Love Nate's get out the vote campaign for Hillary here.