Hillary Most Likely to Lose

This is my best prediction Nov 8 map.

Hillary is going to most likley lose.

Adjusted demos from 2012 based on 2016 happenings based and using Nate Silver's model here:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

White College-Ed
=Changes from 2012=
Drop 2% due to corruption
Right 4% due to Bernie or Busters
=Results=
(TO: 54% Lean: 60%R)

White Non-College
=Changes from 2012=
Up 5% due to Trump media
Right 5% due to muh jobs
=Results=
(TO: 62% Lean: 67%R)

Black Vote
=Changes from 2012=
Down 6% due to No Obama (2004 rate)
=Results=
(TO: 60% Lean: 93%D)

Hispanic Vote
=Changes from 2012=
Left by 5% due to Build Wall
Up by 2% due to Build Wall
=Results=
(TO: 50% Lean: 76%D)

Asian demos are pretty much static and irrelevant.

Let me know if you think better.

Other urls found in this thread:

pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/10/turnout-was-high-in-the-2016-primary-season-but-just-short-of-2008-record/
twitter.com/NSFWRedditGif

If Trumps get PA and FL in first hour. Its game over for Hillary

Wow an actual educated prediction map? Shills will avoid this thread like the plague.

Yup. Looks like the angry white vote will carry the day once more.

So turnout of about 57%
Lower than 2012 in the loudest election ever
What are you doing nigga

I agree with it desu.

Trump and Hillary polarize a lot of people. Most simply won't show.

>could be lower than 2012

most likely.

high unfavoribility ratings all around

pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/06/10/turnout-was-high-in-the-2016-primary-season-but-just-short-of-2008-record/

It's probably more useful to look at the election on a state-by-state basis. I don't see Trump winning VA, CO, or WI out of the current swing states. MN and OR are pipe dreams.

and those that are pumped up to show are new voters brought in by trump

Wow, how cute. You think your little Truhrer can win.

Those states have very high numbers of independent voters. More left than right independents will vote 3rd party, drawing votes from hillary, making the state redder by relativity.

All I know is people here in Florida are itching to vote for Trump.

Aw look our first shill!

>$0.03 we're deposited in your HillShill™ account.

ROTFL HILLARY CANT BE BEAT TRUMP IS TOO DIVISIVE

I mean right now they are already tied in the polls and there weren't even any debates. Trump and the RNC didn't start attack ads on hillary. This will only get worse for her unless Trump does something so outrageous like masturbating on stage. Then he might lose.

plus more wikileaks to come.

oh yeah and the wikileaks. She has a hell of an uphill battle before her which she can't really win. Everybody knows that she is a shitty person, only her hardcore fanbase can't be swayed, but the independents and the bernouts are more open to other candidates.

How is Trump going to win WI and NH?
It looks like he is losing in the polls there

He can't win NH or WI. That's the funny part xD

>checked

I would be too sure.

Again people keep looking at it as if every vote against trump is a vote for hillary.

The left is going to lose alot of votes to third parties. Thats why traditional blue state with alot of independents are looking redder.

In addition traditional blue states with high blue collar workers are looking less blue.