My best prediction for the election

My best prediction for the election.

Thoughts?

Your predictions?

Other urls found in this thread:

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-reutersipsos-idUSKCN10910T
twitter.com/SFWRedditVideos

PA isn't in the bag just yet

Final election ends with trump having 15 percent of total votes .

He is up by 9 points as of 2 days ago

Care to explain?

...

>OR is solid blue
>ME is blue
>PA isnt red yet
>CO, MI, and WI are light blue as of now

>IN
>PA
>MN
>OH
>red

>my best prediction Nov 8 map.

Hillary is going to most likley lose.

how?

Adjusted demos from 2012 based on 2016 happenings based and using Nate Silver's model here:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

White College-Ed
=Changes from 2012=
Drop 2% due to corruption
Right 4% due to Bernie or Busters
=Results=
(TO: 54% Lean: 60%R)

White Non-College
=Changes from 2012=
Up 5% due to Trump media
Right 5% due to muh jobs
=Results=
(TO: 62% Lean: 67%R)

Black Vote
=Changes from 2012=
Down 6% due to No Obama (2004 rate)
=Results=
(TO: 60% Lean: 93%D)

Hispanic Vote
=Changes from 2012=
Left by 5% due to Build Wall
Up by 2% due to Build Wall
=Results=
(TO: 50% Lean: 76%D)

>people seriously think Florida is a swing state this year

Hillary is going to lose.

I think that black TO is 20% high. What was Al Gore's black turnout? Figure that minus 5%

Florida is going red before Pennslvania.

52.9% it aint going that low again.

not with BLM making noise.

Can someone explain to me why some of the states are grey?
Does that mean they're undecided?

>what is this

Foolish CRT merchants.

I am from the future

I wouldnt be so sure. They aren't really friendly towards Hillary anyway

they picked her over Sanders.

i guess you make a case based on voter restrictions

This makes no sense

I don't think Ohio and Pennsylvania will both go blue. There is a higher chance they will both go red than blue.

>He is up by 9 points as of 2 days ago
Source?

This is my prediction as well barring massive voter fraud
I think if OH and PA go red, MI, WI, and NV come into play as well

PA is solid blue, Ohio can go either way, so it's more likely that they both go blue than both go red

Hillary will win the popular vote, though.

...

Trump will win Indiana, Pence is governor.

Obama got 60.8% black turnout in 2008. Theres no way Hillary is getting higher than 50%

>VA
>BLUE

>VA
>BLUE

>VA
>BLUE

L O L
L O FUCKING L

L O FUCKING LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

>Ohio
>Penn
>Florida
>Implying

I like Trump but this is most likely how it will turn out

I hope I'm wrong

idk, Florida values their gun rights

>FL,PA,OH going blue
>50 hades of Implying

Trump wins and Hillary and Obama spend the next 8 years trying to sabotage him. Trump exposes them and the Democratic party gets BTFO.

Florida is a pretty red state. It's probably going Trump. Think about it. It has the elderly, military and lots of Southerners living there.

California has too many electoral votes, because they count illegals towards the population for electoral college purposes.

Even though Clinton is getting assblasted in the polls and tanking daily there are retards who still assume this bitch is going to win kek

>PA
>not in play

pick one

we need them to keep thinking that until after the election.

If liberals start thinking Trump is going to win. They might vote hillary instead of stein or johnson.

>3rd party states

California really needs to be split up into multiple states. It's obscene that in a federal system one state can have that much political power.

This. Make it SoCal and NoCal

>PA
>Solid Blue

It's a rustbelt, pro-gun, pro-coal, large county state where the cities don't have total control, rural counties are redpilled, and even its biggest city doesn't have a large voting minority population

It's leaning red with the only poll that's really blue is a College University poll with 10% Dem bias and a 500 sample.

Imagine NY if the city didn't cuck the whole state.

That's PA for you.
As I type this from the Poconos.

Used to be like that with NY in the 10s, 20s, and 30s.

indiana native hate pence more than Sup Forums hates muslims

she got more than that during the primaries ;]

Source on that?

burgers how do you get polls that differ this much?

it's really hard to follow what you guys are thinking as a whole

this is the only one that seems reasonable.

Reuters said they changed how they do polling to help Hillary.

Not joking.

>Reuters said they changed how they do polling
source?

Not a single state will go to a third party.

At most, a few commonly red/blue states will flip flop due to 3rd party interference.

If you actually think a single state will vote majority 3rd party, you are a dingus.

You'd think polling is simply that they take a random sample of people who say they're likely to vote, and then see what percentage is for each candidate.

But that's not what they do. They take samples and categorize the data based on sex, age, race, affiliation, etc. Then they estimate voter turnout of each of these demographics.

See that last step there? It's complete bullshit. They're basically assuming the same demographic turnout as in 2008/2012, when it was milquetoast cuckservative vs well-spoken magical negro. Trump vs Hillary is a completely different dynamic but they're not admitting this.

So basically, polls at this point are more a campaign tool than anything. It has fuck-all to do with the actual results. But I'll tell you this: the fact that trump is tied despite the methodology literally underweighing him means he's doing very well. It's going to be like brexit.

Oregon is blue, but not solid blue

As I see it, it comes down to these two meme states. I can't believe these retards are going to dictate the future of the Western world.

Oregon was actually tied in a couple recent pools iirc. Which is surprising because usually it has a very solid lead.

This is probably because the state is mostly hwyte and the portland libcucks are all bernouts who hate clinton just as much as we do. It'd be cool if it actually goes red, but I doubt it. At least it could force hillary to waste time/resources campaigning there.

Take a look at this map.

States in dark red = states with voting machines w/o paper trail.

And three of those states are important battleground states.

Who do you think has all the support from those voting machine manufacturers and the criminal will to plant someone to hack the voting machines?

Hillary's going to win - either by actually beating Trump or by hacking the machines. Most likely the latter.

no we don't. trump will win indiana easily.

>t. Hoosier

>source?

That Trumpfag's ass

Here are the results if Hillary wins PA, VA, and FL, which I'm sure she will legitimately or otherwise.

Maine isn't going red, maybe one district is in play but definitely not the whole state. Ohio is also likely red

Looks like kek's magic is no use for Satan's power.

>FL
>Hillary

fuck off.

Sup Forums, you're fucking cute (aka delusional)

>Florida is a pretty red state
>Has voted for Obama in the past two elections

reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-reutersipsos-idUSKCN10910T

Colorado, Florida and Ohio will be red. Maine and New Hampshire will be blue. It's North Carolina and Virginia that will decide of the outcome

Hillary can not win Florida

LOL holy fuck, wat?

That literally never happened.

Unless that's a typo, and you meant "She"

I think there are enough Bernouts in Maine (and maybe Oregon and Rhode Island) to throw an autism tantrum and protest vote Trump instead.

Ohio and Florida are up in the air. It all depends on who campaigns better.

...

...

>Colorado
Doubt it. They went hard for Obama and the demographics are tilting towards the Dems there.

>Ohio and Florida
No way is them going red a given. They're the most spastic states, especially Ohio.

>Maine and New Hampshire
Maine, probably. NH, I don't think so. There's some solid conservatives there

>North Carolina and Virginia
Hm, why do you think they're up in the air?

>Ohio going red

Face it, it's pretty much over. There's no way Trump can pull Ohio - Kasich is well-liked there and his refusal to endorse Trump will have huge consequences on his success in the state. If Trump was smart, and didn't allow himself to be arm-barred by Manafort and the Kike brothers, he would've put Kasich on the ticket and had a slam dunk in the general. Instead he picked some literally who kike brothers puppet that is hated in his own state. Now Trump will lose Ohio, and if he loses Ohio, he loses the election.

Ohio might go blue if Bottomless Kasich pullss of a Jeb

>Maine, probably. NH, I don't think so
Wrong. NH is a swing state, Maine is blue.

>Him: Maine and New Hampshire will be blue
>Me: Maine, probably. NH, I don't think so

Can't you read?

I think that's what he was saying

he tried putting kasich on the ticket he refused

Not possible.

See There are 3 battleground states with electronic voting. Their results cannot be verified and rely completely on the system not getting hacked. The security for these things are shitty and have been found to have "had glitches" that have added thousands of votes before.

Do you really think Hillary is above rigging the election?

What's interesting about this year's election is that Virginia is leaning heavily toward Hillary (5 points currently). If that continues, and Hillary wins Pennsylvania, along with 3 of Iowa, NH, NV, CO, IA, or NC, then she wins, even if she loses Florida & Ohio.

Is there an official source for that, or are you just guessing? I'd believe it, but I don't want to. I really respect Kasich, I'm disappointed he can't see the opportunity to prevent the most corrupt person in American politics from attaining the most powerful office in the world. I really fear for Trump's chances in the general with this deadweight GOPe puppet as his VP. Meanwhile, Hillary actually made a brilliant choice - Kaine is governor of a potential swing state, speaks Spanish for that sweet Hispanic vote and has a child in the marines. Fuck the Koch brothers for fucking up the Republicans once again

NV and CO I could see her win. I doubt IA and NC votes blue. NH is a tossup.

>Colorado
>red

This fucking state is a liberal shithole that will vote democrap no matter who the nominee is

Maybe 8 years ago Trump could've had a chance here but there is no way now